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Thursday, March 31, 2011

CytoSorbents Announces Blockbuster News, CE Mark Approval in Europe

Moved to new location:  http://vfcsstockhouse.com/blog/article/-cytosorbents-announces-blockbuster-news-ce-mark-approval-in-europe


optionsXpress - Preserve Cash

GNBT: The Conference Call, Some Questions Answered, Others Remained

The Generex's presentation at the Nasdaq on Wednesday was followed just a couple of hours later by a conference call in which the retail investor stole the show and lobbed some hardballs - and some softballs - at now-permanent CEO Mark Fletcher and his Generex management team. 

Funny enough, the first question asked at the call was right in line with the thoughts I took away from the Nasdaq presentation, why the lack of attention and avoidance of anything related Oral-lyn during the presentation?

As I noted on Wednesday, it wasn't until minute twelve in the presentation that the supposed "flagship" product for Generex received mention, and after only a brief update where the FDA was identified as the reason for no updates, the Antigen Express road show was in full effect.

In response to the first question regarding the lack of any Oral-lyn updates, Mr. Fletcher noted that the presentation was a "strategic development plan," hence the lack of attention to Oral-lyn. 

To that I'd have to say that if the "flagship product" of your company is not a significant part of the strategic future, then there might be some trouble for the home team.

That said, Dr. Anderson did step up to the plate and provided the best Oral-lyn update that investors have heard in a while, noting that the company is waiting on the FDA in regards to whether or not the five hundred (or so) patients enrolled - out of an initially-expected 750 - would suffice for approval with the FDA.

The agency is expected to respond within a couple of weeks, but we all know how the FDA runs by their own clock, so who knows when a response will come.

It was also identified that the patients to last enroll have still not completed the full cycle of treatment and follow-up that would have Generex call the trial complete, although the trial is no longer enrolling.

Funny enough, but that simple update is all investors needed to hear.  The fact that the company had to be pressed to give that update, however, reverts me to the opinions that I expressed after the presentation - that the company is making plans to move on without any solid Oral-lyn developments for the near future.

Maybe they're playing the 'prepare for the worst while hoping for the best' strategy, but until we know something, then we know nothing.

For the company to pin the lack of an update or timeline on the FDA doesn't entirely hold water, either.  After all, a timeline for expected completion of the current trial - since it's been stated that the trial is no longer recruiting - should be pretty easy to ascertain. 

If the timeline changes because another trial will be required, then so be it - but the perception is that the company does not want to discuss Oral-lyn right now.

With that said, Antigen Express becomes the "centerpiece" of the strategic future.

The spin-off, the rights offering, the dividend - the company is pulling out all the stops to persuade investors to vote yes this time, but it's still far too early to make a decision, in my opinion, as the vote is not until June.

It could be a whole new ballgame by then.

One market-mover for GNBT could be a potential partnership.  Investors are wary that the products are as successful as claimed by management since there has been no big pharma interest.  Mr. Fletcher did state that the company is in consistent contact with big pharma, but thus far no serious negotiations have taken place.

It's fair to keep in mind that the failure of Pfizer's Exubera a few years back may be delaying any serious Oral-lyn discussions.  The main contributors to Exubera being pulled from market were safety concerns and the inconvenience of the inhaler, according to published reports.  If those concerns are alleviated in this late stage trial, then big pharma may be more willing to shell out the big bucks to bring O-L to market.

The new regime at Generex runs a different ship than the previous one, as noted on numerous occassions by Mark Fletcher.  For instance, this regime does not see the immediate need to push its products into second and third world markets just for the sake of claiming that the product is approvable - at least not investing the training and education that should accompany such approvals.

There's another factor that may be contributing to the company's hush-hush nature about Oral-lyn.

Almost a year ago Generex filed suit against TheStreet.com for comments made on TheStreet's biotech blog.  There has to date been no public outcome of this suit and it's something to keep on the backburner.

Since the filing of the Generex suit, TheStreet's biotech blogger has slowly chipped away at his own credibility as an emotionally and drama-fueled blogger and recently reached a new low by immaturely identifying investors of a company that he doesn't like as "retards."

Generex still has a whole lot of risk/reward potential working in its favor, but there will have to be solid news and updates before the share price will recover.

The significant run from two dimes to over thirty cents just on news of a conference call demonstrates how quickly this one can run when it wants to.  If a conference call announcement can do that to this stock, then imagine what real news could do.

Back trading at a quarter, and likely to trickle downward again, GNBT should be on the watch list as a potential big mover as early as this year.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT.

Read VFC's Take on Generex's NASDAQ Presentation.

Zecco Holdings

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

GNBT: The Nasdaq Presentation May Have Created More Questions Than It Answered

Note:  This post is intended for VFC's Stock House only.  No repostings or reproductions are authorized. 

I'm not so certain that the presentation held by Generex at the Nasdaq on Wednesday should be referred to as a company presentation as much as it was an Antigen Express road show.

It should be telling that Oral-lyn, the supposed "flagship" product of the company, was not mentioned until twelve minutes into the presentation, long after Antigen Express and its lead product AE37 were identified as the "centerpiece" for Generex's strategic plan moving forward.

The lack of attention to Oral-lyn, the insistence on a reverse split that isn't to be voted on until June, and the casual comments about being prepared for future FDA trials, all have me believing that Generex just might be making plans for life without the "flagship" product that gets little mention at a major presentation on the Nasdaq.

If not an outright plan for life without the product, then it's possible that the company expects delays significant enough to where management feels news will not be enough to raise the share price high enough to warrant a listing on a major exchange.

After all, a share price high enough to meet minimum listing requirements on a major exchange would allow Generex to attract the institutional money that company officials claim would accompany the listing, although it should be noted - to be fair - that the institutional money never arrived in time to stave off a de-listing from the Nasdaq late last year.

It's possible that I'm making too much out of the general lack of interest in Oral-lyn at the presentation, but as if what I've already noted wasn't enough, the company officials had a noticeably more excited tone when speaking about Antigen Express than they did when discussing Oral-lyn.

Even Global Medical Direct received more enthusiasm than did the "flagship product."

With Oral-lyn not considered the centerpiece to the company's strategic plan ahead, where does AE-37 and Antigen Express come into play?

According to company officials (by the way, interim-CEO Mark Fletcher is now the permanent CEO), Generex will spin Antigen Express into a majority-owned subsidiary through an IPO and will "dividend" GNBT shareholders with ownership in the new company.

This action will raise some much-needed cash reserves, as will the planned rights offering and reverse split that shareholders will vote on this coming June.

For those that remember, the last reverse split that the company tried to implement was turned down by shareholders - more than once.

I was inclined to vote "yes" after some debate last time, but I'm now left to wonder - that if Oral-lyn is truly being phased out of the strategic plan, then wouldn't it make more sense to just purchase shares of the newly-publicly-traded Antigen Express when they become available? 

It's still way too early to cast a vote now for this reverse split, but it's something to think about.

After all, any positive news from the Oral-lyn front by June that would have it looking like an FDA approval was a possibility would most certainly have Generex trading for well over a buck and on its way to a major exchange, without a reverse split.

But I get the impression that the company is not counting on that.

Shares of GNBT were back in the mid-twenty cents range following the presentation on insignificant volume.  That tells me that the market was about as unimpressed with the call as I was, in terms of short term potential.

Over the long term, I think it's a wait-and-see game.  Generex has spun itself a reputation of loving the dramatic - there was no reason for this conference to take place at the Nasdaq - but unless there is dramatic news to be announced, the flair quickly fades.

Antigen Express may have the value that Generex is proclaiming it has, although some big partner money would go a lot further to validate that value than an un-named "independent valuation firm,"  but for now, GNBT remains as speculative as ever.

That said, the possible rewards still outweigh the risks, in my opinion; I have growing reservations about Oral-lyn, but I don't think it's completely dead-in-the-water, and those that wait around for AE-37 could be heavily rewarded.

Time to tune into the conference call.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT.

CVM: Cel-Sci Spikes on Teva Connection

Note:  This post is intended for VFC's Stock House only.  No repostings or reproductions are authorized. 

Shares of Cel-Sci Corp jumped higher by twenty percent during early trading on Wednesday after the company announced that the Israeli Ministry of Health had approved the initiation of enrollment for the Phase III Multikine trial.

What is significant about this announcement is not that the Israeli medical authorities have given the trial a green light - after all, Cel-Sci has announced the trial-commencement approval of each and every country along the way - but the fact that Teva is going to be conducting the Multikine trial at three locations in Israel makes this approval noteworthy.

Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries is a big player in the global pharmaceutical market and having that name attached to any clinical trial adds a certain amount of validation and credibility to a still-developing company. 

Shares of Rexahn, for example, spiked considerably after Teva purchased a few million dollars worth of RNN.

That said, the amount Teva will spend on conducting the Multikine trial in Israel is small beans in the big scheme of things, but big pharma has one thing in common with the small investor - if the risk/reward profile of an investment looks good, then jump on it.

If Multikine makes it to market, or even makes it to late stage Phase III with positive interim results along the way, then CVM will be trading for much higher prices than where the stock sits today.  For Teva, if Multikine ever makes it to market and works as advertised by Cel-Sci, then the rewards are going to be well worth the risk of an investment in this trial.

There have been some concerns expressed by investors about the legitimacy of Cel-Sci, concerns which I believe are unfounded (although the company does defend itself against Internet rumors), but nothing will add validation, legitimacy and credibility like data showing steady enrollment at multiple locations in the world wide trial.

Nearly 900 patients are due to be enrolled in this trial, an ambitious number, yet so far there have been zero enrollments, as far as we know.

Maybe a big player like Teva can get the ball rolling in Israel.

CVM retreated later in the day after an early spike.

Volume was well over four times the daily average.

Disclosure:  Long CVM.

BMOD: Biomoda Announces Top-Line Results

In February Biomoda, Inc. announced full enrollment of an ongoing trial, and shares spiked significantly on the news with heavy volume.

The February press release also announced that top-line results would be available by the end of March and on Wednesday the company announced positive results of the trial.

 CEO Maria Zannes stated in a press release that "The results demonstrate that CyPath® is a significant new biomarker for lung cancer that can be optimized for use as an inexpensive, noninvasive lung cancer diagnostic for large at-risk populations."

With the positive news announced, Biomoda plans to seek out partnerships to develop its cancer-detecting diagnostic tests to market.

Shares of BMOD fell sharply on the news, trading down by as much as 50% which, in my opinion, opened up a nice - although still highly speculative - buying opportunity. 

Keep an eye on this one as the story develops.

Disclosure:  Long BMOD.

Biovest Announces Research Collaboration Agreement

MOVED TO:  http://vfcsstockhouse.com/blog/article/-biovest-announces-research-collaboration-agreement

CPST Creates a New Management Position

Note:  This post is intended for VFC's Stock House only.  No other repostings or reproductions are authorized. 

CPST:  Shares of Capstone Turbine have been denied at two dollars, having traded over that mark only briefly last week, but volume has still been fairly heavy and the stock may have found a home in the $1.80 range, although it's yet to be seen how permanent that home is.

A recent Presidential mention brought a lot of new eyes to Capstone, but there has also been an increase in shares short over the past couple of months.

In recent news, the company announced the implementation of a new position that was created "to ensure the timely execution of the Company's critical cost reduction programs, reliability improvement initiatives and Department of Energy (DOE) programs," according to a Capstone press release.

The position will be filled by Robert C. Gleason, effective April 6th.

Although having trouble maintaining a share price of over $2, Capstone is still one to keep an eye on as a clean energy company gaining momentum at a time when the standard sources of energy are starting to raise concerns.

CPST is already a big winner for the year, and as the orders and reorders keep coming in - it could be the beginning of a new and positive phase for Capstone.

Disclosure:  Long CPST.

Howard Stern's Lawsuit is Siriusly Weak


Investors of SiriusXM - and the company itself for that matter - were shocked to learn last week that the king of all shock-jocks, Howard Stern, had filed suit against SiriusXM for failing to pay out bonuses in accordance with his original contract.

That contract was worth half a billion dollars, for those keeping score at home.

The filing of the lawsuit is surprising in the sense that not only did Stern just months ago decide to
re-up his contract for another five years, but the company seems to have known nothing ahead of time of the suit being filed...

CLICK HERE FOR FULL ARTICLE.....Save $20-$40 on Sirius Radios

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

MCET: Making Some Noise?

MCET might be on the move again.

Already having experienced a nice early-2011 run, shares of MultiCell technologies have been moving up again on increasing volume and touched prices on Monday that would make MCET a near-double in just over a week's time.

Monday's trading action could be indicative that some news may be close to being released - no news accompanied the previous early-year run - but it's also possible that the move is simply the result of day and momentum trading.

There will be a whole new slew of eyes on MCET on Tuesday, however, since the stock made the Yahoo! Finance home page under the "Bullish" column for 'Community Sentiment.'

Aside from the short term trading aspect of this volatile penny play, MCET also holds some long term potential.

The two pipeline candidates far enough along to create buzz are MCT-125, a treatment for fatigue in MS patients (a Phase II product) and the Ideal BioStent, which was recently purchased by Multicell's majority-owned subsidiary Xenogenics.

It's been a while since MultiCell has released significant news, and any relevant company update could have this stock trading up by a very significant percentage; even moreso than the short term double.

Keep an eye on MCET this week - volume and price movement looked good on Monday.

Disclosure:  Long MCET.

Briefs: RNN, EPCT Announce Direct Offerings, Generex Rises Again

RNN:  Shares of Rexahn Pharmaceuticals dropped sharply during Monday's trading after the company announced a registered direct offering that would net Rexahn nearly ten million dollars.

Earlier in the year RNN was on the fly, partly due to an announcement that Teva had purchased a significant amount of company shares.

The dip in price that has resulted from Monday's direct offering could be a decent buying opportunity for those looking to re-load or take up a new position in the company which looks to be a nice 'Phase II' pick.

The Rexahn pipeline consists of three Phase II drugs that treat four indications and numerous preclinical products that would treat cancer.

RNN has proven to be a volatile pick over the recent past, so keep and eye on this one, as a rebound could be in store of the near term.

Additionally, results of the ongoing Serdaxin Phase IIb trial for major depressive disorder (MDD) are still on track to be announced later this year.

Disclosure:  No position.

EPCT:  Epicept also announced a registered direct offering on Monday, an offering that will raise nearly five million dollars for the company.

Epicept has released quite a bit of encouraging news over the past few months and still holds some significant potential over the long term, in my opinion.

Unlike RNN, EPCT shares traded sideways on Monday, not reacting to the announcement.

Disclosure:  Long EPCT.

GNBT:  In a demonstration of just how fact speculative biotech stocks can move, shares of Generex traded up again to open the new week, closing roughly a dime above where it traded just a week ago.

The move comes in anticipation of Wednesday's conference call where it is expected that Generex - presenting from the Nasdaq - will provide a detailed update on the ongoing clinical trials and path forward for the pipeline products.

GNBT should be on all radars this week, especially after such a significant move up in price.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT. 

MedClean on the Watch List

MCLN: Shares of MedClean Technologies took the opportunity on Friday to demonstrate that the impressive opening to 2011 is still in effect as the stock closed 18% higher on pretty decent volume.

The only news put out by the company thus far this year came with an announcement of a successful distributorship meeting, but it's expected that the company is due to announce some earnings numbers in the near future.

The significant volatility in the 2011 price action started with an impressive January run, was followed by a steep decline before bouncing back to the current levels.

MedClean has a service that makes it an attractive long term play as well as a short term trade, but until valid news is issued that would justify sustained higher prices, it's well worth using a handful of trading shares to take advantage of the volatile action.

Friday's close, however, makes MedClean one to watch for this week.

It's rare when a stock gives you the opportunity to buy and sell, then buy and sell again for significant gains in such a short period of time.

Keep it on the radar.

Disclosure: Long MCLN.

From VFC's News, Notes & Weekly Stock Watch at VFC's NEW Stock House.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Cytosorbents Rebound Puts Stock on the Short Term Radar

After dipping earlier in the week, shares of Cytosorbents rebounded as the trading week finished up as investors are becoming itchy for news regarding the Europen CytoSorb trial for severe sepsis.

The trial should be fully enrolled by now, or close to it, and if those results are positive, then it should be expected that CTSO is going to realize some pretty significant gains, being that there is no effective treatment for severe sepsis on the market.

There's been a lot of speculation about price targets and possible trial outcomes over the past few months, and it's quickly becoming crunch time for shareholders of Cytosorbents waiting for news.

The late week rebound was encouraging moving into the new trading week, but volume wasn't noticable enough to have me believing that this is the week that we see news, but previous enrollment numbers released by the company have us in line right now for news of full enrollment.

CTSO will end up being a huge winner if it all works out, but expect a complete collapse if the trial does not meet muster.

Disclosure:  Lont CTSO.

Buy.com

OVIT Rises Higher, Worth Watching After Friday's Action

MOVED TO:  http://vfcsstockhouse.com/blog/article/-ovit-rises-higher-worth-watching-after-friday-s-action

Mothers Day Gifts

Titan's Call Scheduled For Tuesday

Like Generex Corp., Titan Pharmaceuticals has a conference call scheduled for this week. 

Titan's call will be held on Tuesday the 29th of March at 1PM EST and the subject will be the fourth quarter and full year 2010 results, which were released late last week.

No surprises resulted from the quarterly and full-year filing, and it looks like the Probuphine Phase III confirmatory results are set to be released by the end of the second quarter.

A pre-NDA meeting with the FDA is scheduled for August.

It's been quite a while of going-it-alone for Titan since the approval of Vanda's Fanapt and the development of Probuphine, but I'm still of the belief that this company is going to be on the receiving end of a buyout before long. 

If not a buyout, it could be a partnership is going to develop once the Probuphine results are known.

TTNP has held up nicely, although with some volatility, since the announcement of the Deerfield credit facility, indicating a neutral reaction from the market. 

Having traded for just a penny only a couple of years ago, Titan is already a huge success story for the recent past, but there could be more to come as Probuphine and the ProNeura pipeline develops.

Eyes on Tuesday for Titan investors.

Disclosure:  Long TTNP.


eToro

GNBT: Upcoming Call To Provide Pipeline Guidance?

Come Wednesday afternoon investors of Generex Biotechnology Corporation had better have heard some valid updates from the company after the 1PM conference planned to take place at the Nasdaq HQ in Times Square, New York City.

The company issued two press releases last week announcing the event, making it doubly important that some valid news comes from it. 

GNBT has been trickling downwards over the past few months following an autumn filled with chaos, but closed last week up over thirty percent after a Friday trading session that saw a thirteen percent increase on about two and a half times the normal daily trading average.

Hyped-up conference at the Nasdaq or not, last week showed that there is still interest in Generex, even without the Oral-lyn news that investors have long been waiting for. 

The recent troubles at Mannkind could have Generex sitting in the driver's seat in terms of making it to market first, assuming that the Phase III Oral-lyn trial has produced positive results. 

Investors have heard all about AE-37 for the past few months, but nothing about Oral-lyn, so it's time for Generex to sit or get off the pot. 

All eyes will be on Wednesday, and last week's trading actions shows that there is quite some anticipation for this event.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT.

Why Does The Motley Fool Have It Out For Capstone? Because They Got It Wrong

Shares of Capstone Turbine were given the smack-down following a rise to over two bucks last week, but after receiving a Presidential mention the company is sure to be on more radar screens than it was a few months ago when shares were still trading for under a buck. 

With political events the way they are around the globe right now, the timing might be right for Capstone to start taking center stage next to the big boys of the green energy sector. 

So if things are looking so rosy for CPST right now, then why is the Motley Fool slamming the company and its stock? 

Simply put, because they've had it wrong the whole way up.

It's true that Capstone has yet to turn a profit, I've mentioned that over and over as one of the reasons as to why an investor in CPST should always expect spikes, dips and above-average volatility with this stock, but the orders and re-orders continue to roll in at a decent pace and the most recent quarterly report was the best ever.

Granted, a long and sustained run might not be in the near future for CPST, but the potential is definitely there.

Each and every article published by the Motley Fool about Capstone during the months-long runup has been negative, which makes the following statement a funny one from the website that is starting to lose as much credibility in VFC's eyes as TheStreet.com:

Capstone's dilemma is that customers seem to prefer larger turbines rather than the many small turbines it manufactures to generate the equivalent amount of energy. It looks to me like an uphill battle that longs will probably not win.

Um...It looks to me that longs of the stock have already won.  While The Fool has been going negative, CPST has run from under seventy cents to over two bucks in just a few months. 

That's an "uphill battle" that I sure do like.

Thanks for the opinion, Motley, but you look like a Fool on this one. 

The opinion is duly noted, however, from the website that has become the master of publishing two paragraph articles that mention about fifty stocks to attract those advertising clicks!

Keep an eye on Capstone, it's still a 'buy the dips' kind of play.
Disclosure:  Long CPST.

Friday, March 25, 2011

An RPC Update: What's This Say About Feuerstein?

MOVED TO:  http://vfcsstockhouse.com/blog/article/-an-rpc-update-what-s-this-say-about-feuerstein-

Readers Respond: SIGA, How Long Do We Wait on BARDA?

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress


An email from J to my Seeking Alpha account

I have been following SIGA, and I too believe that they will win the contract. If you check out my instablog on the subject you will see why even if CMX001 makes it to phase-III clinical testing, it will never be considered as good as ST246

I am messaging you because I am wondering if you have any idea as to how long it generally takes BARDA to approve these contracts, or if there is a certain day the announcement is expected to be made. If you have any further insight on this topic, especially since the press release today, I would appreciate you sharing with me and opening this dialogue.

VFC's Take:  Thanks for the email.  I do believe that SIGA is going to end up with the contract and I think that the governments knows that SIGA is going to get the contract, but with all the up-and-downs of this story over the past year, everything had to be put together correctly and legally.

As for how long it takes BARDA to come to a decision on these things, that's an easy one: we never know.

Government (generally, any government) is the most futile and foot-dragging entity in the world, and government dealing with contracting is even worse, so it's always tough to say how long a contract award is going to take.

Even when the government knows ahead of time who is going to get the award, whether it be because the CEO of the awardee is a old-time crony of someone high up in government (Cheney and Halliburton come to mind) or whether it's because a company has the best product or service to offer (SIGA, in this case), Washington still needs to go through the painful process of feigning objectiveness.

Add to that the ongoing budget battles in Washington and you never even know if the money is going to become available to seal the deal.

Unfortunately, each scenario is different.  You have no certainties when dealing with the government, and Big Brother can ignore promises and deadlines all he wants and, guess what, there's nothing anyone can do about it.

Simply a waiting game.

Disclosure:  No position.



Readers Respond: IMUC, About to Double?

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

An email from Edward to my Seeking Alpha account:
Good Evening,


I've followed your work on biotechnology investments for some time and have found your ideas resonate with the highest quality. I was wondering what your thoughts on ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (IMUC) are at this time?


Dawson James came out with a report this morning citing a price target of $5.


I look forward to your comments.


Best,


Edward Stevenson
Founder, TimelessWealth
timelesswealth.net

VFC's Take:  About a month ago I mentioned that it might be worth picking up a few shares on the recent retreat, and indicated that I wouldn't be surprised to have seen the stock drop even further over the short term.

Since that time the company announced a financing deal and stated that the near term intention was to receive an uplisting to the AMEX.

Shares responded positively to both announcements and IMUC is trading for triple from where it traded just six months ago.

With that being said, could the price go even higher?  Especially given that Dawson James (as Edward mentioned in his email) initiated positive coverage of the company with an upbeat price target?

Maybe. 

First I'll use this opportunity to emphasize why I don't like analysts.  There's a good chance that IMUC could keep rising to the five dollar mark, especially given that its market cap of fifty million is relatively modest considering the potential of the pipeline (although that pipeline is still far from market), but there's also a chance that a buy here could be a chase, given the already very significant gains realized by this stock.

If the analysts really were your friends, you'd think that the positive coverage would have come when the stock was trading for below a buck.  The fact that it came after the run indicates to me that James' buddies were buying in before the upgrade was announced.

Regardless, I still like IMUC as a long term, speculative 'possible next Dendreon' play.  I won't rule out another dip to well below two bucks, however, if only because it's always worth expecting that sort of volatility in this sector, but as the Phase II trials develop, the share price could inch upwards and maybe even approach the five dollar mark identifed by Dawson.

That said, once the ticker is on the big boards then the shorts can play their game with relative ease, so I'd expect quite a bit of volatility. 

The real time to buy was when this stock was at a buck or below, but even at these prices, we're still looking at a nice 'buy the dips' play.

As long as you expect volatility.

Disclosure:  No position.

Need Money? (Female)

Readers Respond: NRIFF on the Rebound?


"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

An email from Nate to my Seeking Alpha account

Hi Vinny,

Do you think that NRIFF is rebounding like I suspect?

Amateur as I am and left holding bag with nephd and neol, and ino after previous losses too and with kid with special needs I'm hurting.

Is there an up and comer on radar you care to mention?

really much obliged,

Nate

VFC's Take:  I don't think that Nuvo Research (NRIFF) is on the verge of a rebound just yet.  The company has been awfully quiet of late and nothing signifcant has emerged news-wise since I last wrote about this company in September.

I would expect that a reverse split is in the near term future, although it looks like the company many be holding out until an opportune time to conduct the RS.

With no news to support the price post-split, it should be expected that a significant drop in price would be in the works as soon as the split is conducted.

Still worth holding as a speculative long, in my opinion, as NRIFF is way below the radar right now, but it's still a highly speculative stock that should be bought only with 'night on the town' money.

On another note, I'm not quite sure what your situation is, but I would be careful about playing around with speculative penny plays and biotech stocks with money that you need. 

These stocks should only be played with recreational money, that's why I call it 'night on the town' money.  Use the money that you would use if you were going to party on the town in these speculative plays - if they pay off, then you get a bunch more nights on the town, but if you lose it, then you've just lost a few hangovers and added a couple of years on your liver.

Never count on speculative stocks to provide extra income, as the volatility that is inherent to these stocks could have you waiting a long time before realizing a profit, or they might never pay off.

Take care of business first and play later when you've got some extra.

Good luck and take care.

As for the up-and-comers, any stocks that I'm interested in I'll mention on the blogs.  VFC's Original Stock House or VFC's NEW Stock House.

Disclosure:  Long NRIFF.

Wiser Advisor

(ACTC) Advanced Cell Technology, Building on Good News

MOVED TO:  http://vfcsstockhouse.com/blog/article/-actc-advanced-cell-technology-building-on-good-news

Zecco Holdings

Generex is Serious About This Conference Call

Generex Biotechnology Corporation must be pretty serious about the upcoming conference call, as Thursday marked the second day this week that the company issued a press release related to the 30 March call.

Interim CEO Mark Fletcher and other representatives of the company will gather at the Nasdaq at 1:00 PM on Wednesday to discuss the development plans of both Oral-lyn and AE-37.

The progress of Oral-lyn has been a mystery of late, since little has been heard about the ongoing Phase III trial for the insulin spray in some time, and investors will be looking for a serious update about the product come Wednesday. 

Any attempt at a 'fluff' update is going to lose the company some credibility, in my opinion.

Generex's cancer vaccine AE-37, being developed by subsidiary Antigen Express, has received the majority of drug-related attention from company press releases thus far this year, but little information has been given about potential partnerships or an outright sale of the product since the company announced that an independent valuation firm slapped AE-37 with a value of $300 million

Volume was up on Friday morning, and GNBT is still up 20% for the week, but a disappointing call next week could easily send shares down into the teens.

Investors need valid and precise updates, not any more fluff statements of large valuations placed on the company's products from unidentified firms or comments such as "Phase III is still ongoing."

This one needs to be for real, and the company sure is building the anticipation by issuing multiple PRs to announce one conference.

The time to delivery will be next Wednesday.

Stay tuned.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT.

Prosper Debt Consolidation Loans

Thursday, March 24, 2011

RPC: Drama Surrounding Radient Continues

Radient Pharmaceuticals issued a press release and filed an 8k with the SEC on Tuesday regarding both its notice of delisting and the alleged misleading or false statements made by the company in a public forum.

On queue, TheStreet.com's biotech blog published a post relating to the issue shortly after the company's own press release and announcement of the SEC filing, and fittingly so, since it was TheStreet's emotionally-fueled hack-job on Radient that inflamed the mess.

It is funny, and quite telling, how TheStreet is now trying to play the impartial "reporter" in all the fun and games, as any unbias credibility that might have existed from that website and its biotech blogger was lost with the initial blog posts that painted an atmoshphere with an heir of bias and he-said-she-said schoolyard banter.  Especially when TheStreet itself - who is now trying to take the high road - had to change the title of an article because it was misleading, the same allegations thrown at Radient. 

Pot calling kettle black?  I think so.

There's reporting the facts, and then there's reporting the facts with added embellishment and opinions that are intended to inflame a situation enough to attract more interest and reader clicks to the website.  Any truth that might have been there can not be accounted for as valid when there are ulterior motives at hand.

That's why the media continues to get it so wrong when reporting on foreign events these days, because the goal of the networks is to attract advertising dollars, not report what's really going on.

To get to the bottom of the story, the lawyers from each side are sharpening their knives. 

Radient has hired the DLA Piper lawfirm to defend itself against allegations levied by The Rosen law firm in a class action suit filed almost immediately after TheStreet.com published its hatchet job.

Of course, this whole situation started when BioMedReports published an interview the Radient CEO, and BioMed has since published a follow-up piece adding another side to the story that is growing in suspense.

The RPC action is still worth watching, not only because it puts an episode of 'Days of Our Lives' to shame in terms of drama, but because the developing story has created quite a few spikes and dips - just the kind that traders, longs and shorts all enjoy.

Let's kick back and wait for the facts unfold - because that's what we all want.  Facts.  Not embellished and emotionally-charged hatchet jobs.

Disclosure:  No position.

Tradersroom

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Readers Respond: A Guy Who Doesn't Like VFC's Material. He Told Me To Stop Writing, So I Will - NOT.

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

An email to my Seeking Alpha account from pslice84 in response to a Wednesday publishing by VFC's Stock House:

As an expert on AMRN, I think your article offers no value. Stop just writing about stocks to get page views and put in some time to actually do research. Until then, I don't think any article that comes your way is really worth reading.

VFC's Take:  Before calling it a good old blogging day, I couldn't help but respond to this one.  I appreciate opinions, and I thank pslice for offering his (or hers).  I would have to say, however, that this email is about as worthless as this guy believes my publishings are.

 Like VFC is going to quit writing because some anonymous email says so?

 If you don't like my stuff, then don't read it.  It's hat simple.  You don't have to click.

"I don't think any article that comes your way is really worth reading."

OK, so you've got an opinion, too.  Do you want a cookie for that? 


Have a good one, all.  And keep it real.

Briefs: CPST's Presidential Mention, HGSI's Pipeline Pickup, MNKD Drifting Lower

CPST:  Capstone Turbine may have just joined the big boys of the clean energy sector when US President Barak Obama gave the company a shout-out during a speech in Brasil about exports and clean energy.

The company's stock pushed through the $2 barrier on Wednesday on more than double the average volume.

News, exposure and geopolitical events are all on Capstone's side right now, so it's yet to be seen how high this one can go.

That said, the company is still waiting on profitability.

Read my latest article on Seeking Alpha for more on the subject of Capstone's Presidential Mention.

Disclosure:  Long CPST.

LET YOUR PROFITS RUN, VISIT PROFITSRUN.COM

HGSI:  On the heels of receiving the first FDA approval for a lupus treatment in over half a century, Human Genome Sciences boosted its pipeline last week by acquiring the rights to commercialize and market a cancer drug from FivePrime Thereapeutics.

The deal cost Human Genome an up-front payment of $50 million, but milestone payments and additional conditions could make the deal worth as much as $500 million.

Previous company reporting has indicated that Human Genome will have Benlysta on the market later this year, so as the money starts rolling in, HGSI will be looking to play with the big dogs of the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors.

The season is ripe for big pharma to boost pipelines, and this deal with FivePrime shows that Human Genome just might be ready to take the next step.

Shares of HGSI are heading back down to pre-approval levels, making it a tempting buy for those looking towards the long term.

Disclosure:  No position.

What’s Your Credit Score?


MNKD:  Although Mannkind is down right now,  it's definitely not out.  As the stock drifts in the mid three dollar range on unimpressive volume, investors may want to remember that the possibility of a rebound still exists, both in the short and long term.

Over the short term, talks of a partnership deal to bring Afrezza the rest of the way to market could materialize.  Any announcement on that front could lead to a boost in price, especially if a deal were to bring in some extra cash to fund the additional trial needed to bring Afrezza before the FDA again.

Alfred Mann, Mannkind's founder and CEO, has dished out a metric ton of his own cash to take the product this far, and some cash relief from an outside source would undoubtedly come as a relief to Mr. Mann and the company.

Still highly risky, but a decent rebound play, in my opinion, and it looks like MNKD is trading below the radar, if not off the screen, right now.

On a related note, Generex, whose Oral-lyn is the chief Afrezza competition, is set to hold a conference call on March 30th to discuss the way forward for Oral-lyn and AE-37, the company's cancer immunotherapy treatment.

The call could be significant for Mannkind as well, as any update on Oral-lyn will give investors an indication if Generex might be able to get their product to market first.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT, MNKD call options.


Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Generex Jumps On Announcement of Conference Call

Shares of Generex Corporation jumped by over twenty percent during early trading on Tuesday when the company announced that March 30th was set for a conference call to outline the path for the future of the company, as developed by interim CEO Mark Fletcher. 

Volume was up by nearly three times the daily norm and it's worth noting that the spike in price did not come until roughly an hour into trading, when the announcement of the call was issued before the market open.

It could be that there is more going on behind the scenes than just your average call, but it could also be an indication that investors have itchy trigger fingers right now since there has been no heartbeat from Generex since all the commotion about the failed reverse split late last year.

Not only did the volume of shares traded spike in conjunction with the conference call press release, but the GNBT 'get bash crew' was out in full force, cluttering message boards around cyber space with messages of doom, gloom, failure and fear.

It always cracks me up when these guys are allowed out to play, most of whom are undoubtedly fat cats sitting around a laptop in their Batman & Robin underoos with a bag of Lays Golden, but it's safe to assume that there's an agenda behind the madness.

After all, it's just not human nature to spend that amount of time conducting such a petty activity unless there's something coming in return; unless of course, someone's just carrying a big chip on their shoulder.

Regardless, it looks like there's life again in Worcester, but conference call or not, this mumbo jumbo means nothing unless investors receive a precise account of where Oral-lyn stands in the Phase III stage of development.

Unless a partnership deal or outright sale of AE-37 is announced, we don't care.  Oral-lyn is the short term market mover for Generex and you would think that the product was abandoned with the lack of a recent substantial mention.

Tuesday's spike has us interested, but it's up to the company to let us know if it was a false alarm, or is something here for real?

I guess we stay tuned for the 30th to find out.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT.


Readers Respond: What Does the Silence From Generex and Cytosorbents Mean?


"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

A comment from Vito posted to VFC's NEW Stock House

Why are CTSO and GNBT so quiet? Surely something has to be going on. Do you follow DYAI? If so, do you have an opinion? They were mentioned in Seeking Alpha a while back. Thnx, Vito

VFC's Take:  The thing is with the biotech sector, a lot of speculation accompanies the game.  We can only speculate as to why there is silence. 

The calm before the storm?  Maybe.

Companies at work trying to release data in a format that looks good enough to keep investors on board, although not quite good enough to garner and FDA approval?  Possibly.

Quite simply, it could just be that there's nothing to report right now, and if that's the case, it's fine.

What we don't want is fluff PRs that really don't say anything.

Unfortunately, Cel-Sci has become the master of the fluff PR of late, producing PR after PR about site approvals for the Multikine Phase III trial, but nothing in terms of actual enrollment.

I don't like fluff PRs because companies that tend to do that might not react well to real news because of the 'boy who cried wolf' factor.

On the other hand, the lack of news and interest can allow a stock to trade under the radar for a while, offering investors a good chance to pick up cheap(er) shares.

In the case of the both GNBT and CTSO, I like the risk/reward at, or just below, the current levels to add a few shares here and there.

By the close of the second quarter, however, we should have heard significant news - bad or good - from both of these companies.

I'll get back to you on DYAI.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT, CTSO.

Readers Respond: Generex, Real or Scam?


"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

A comment posted to VFC's NEW Stock House regarding Generex:

In looking at the internet blogs on Generex Biotechnology there seems to be a lot of polarization; scam or diabetes paradigm changer. How can the average person sort truth from fiction absent news releases? I certainly would like to participate if it is real but obviously not if it is empty. Which appears to be more likely? And WHY??? Confused

VFC's Take:  I'll start off by saying that the biotech sector is full of volatility and action - and if you've got no stomach or tolerance for risk, then this sector is not for you.

It's also a sector full of potential life-saving and life-altering drugs and treatments, so it's a sector to be taken seriously and not written off as a complete scam of a sector, as TheStreet.com's biotech blog does.

However, since many of the shares of start-up biotech companies trade on the bulletin boards and the pinks, the sector is susceptible to scams; and some scams even make it to the big boards, although by trading on the big boards, your putting yourself more into the hands of being held accountable by the SEC.

Scams can live forever on the pinks.

The closest you're going to get to the truth from a company is the SEC filings.  Misleading investors will attract a few lawsuits, but the heat from the SEC for a company is not a welcome event.  Not that a class action suit from investors is either, but the SEC can shut you down quick, fast and in a hurry.

So be keen on what the company is telling the SEC in terms of filings.

Press releases are a good source of getting the information that the company wants you to know, but they can be phrased in ways that are vague, so it's up to you to set your BS factor where you want it, and to decide how relevant a PR really is to the overall picture.

You'll get fifty PRs a day from SiriusXM, but how relevant is each PR to the potential of the share price?

As for Generex, and every other stock, it's up to each individual investor to decide what's what and who's who according their own DD.

Don't use a blog, whether it's a personal blog or a blog imbedded on a larger site, to make investor decisions, and most certainly don't rely on message board information.

Read THIS POST of mine for my opinions on where to start DD.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT.


Readers Respond: Generex, How Low (or High) Can It Go?


"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

A comment from Kim posted at VFC's NEW Stock House regarding Generex Corp and the near term possibilities for price action:

Hi, that you so much for responding to my previous note on Generex. It's great that you follow up and I sincerely appreciate your insights. I bought a little more to lower my cost basis while it is still under the radar. If the company announces substantial news on either the Oral-lyn or vaccine fronts I too expect this to dramatically rise. Rather than look at the share price I focus on the capitalization (price x number of shares). Mankind (MNKD) was over a billion dollars and GNBT is currently at about 57 million. The market wants a new insulin product that works and is well received. Even if it gets to half of MNKD's valuation that would be 10 times higher than now, so I added some risk capital. (1) Do you think the annual cancer meeting in June will influence the price? (2) What would be the impact of a collaboration for either division? I assume either would be a market cap of at least $500k - $1b. Without news I see this drifting to 15 cents over the next couple of months. I also factor in the IND designation which in my view adds credibility. Thoughts? Thanks, Kim

VFC's Take:  I believe that your assessment is correct, that without news GNBT has the potential to drift lower a penny at a time until something gives.  I also agree that the risk when compared to the potential rewards is worth a dabble in GNBT because of the reasons that you mentioned.

As you said, the market is looking for a "new insulin product that works well and is well received," and I'll add that I believe that diabetics are also looking for an alternative to the needle that works.  Pfizer's Exubera could be looked at as a reason to call this platform 'tried and failed,' but the safety concerns that accompanied that product to market should be noted.

It might be a different story for a product such as Oral-lyn, which uses the inner lining of the cheek to deliver insulin, should that product reach market.

As Kim noted, the market cap for Mannkind during the runup to an Afrezza FDA decision is an indicator that the market accepts the platform, and that means any positive news on the Oral-lyn Phase III trial could push this stock significantly higher.

Generex also has AE37 on the backburner as well.  We'll see how that develops, it's my opinion that Generex is looking to sell the rights to that product or land a partner willing to front some big cash to bring it through late stage trials and to market, if successful in trials.

I'm also aware that Generex might be using the approach of 'follow the bright, shiny object' with AE37 to keep investors distracted since there's nothing going on with Oral-lyn right now.

But again, back to the risk/reward; if Oral-lyn is for real, then GNBT is going to end up realizing significant gains.

Whether you buy in or not is up to each investor's individual strategy and tolerance for risk.  You could follow the wavelegnth of TheStreet.com's biotech blogger and not buy anything because the percentages say that too many drugs fail and its safer to just stay away, or you could play the risk/reward and see what happens.

All you need is one TTNP, VNDA, DNDN, HGSI, etc. to become an overall big winner, even if most of the risk/rewards plays don't pan out.

That's the beauty of the biotech sector.

Regarding a chance for a pop in conjunction with the upcoming cancer conference: it's possible GNBT will see a spike.  Generally all cancer-related companies presenting data at the conference experience a pop, some modest, some pretty significant.

Thanks for the comments.

Disclosure:  Long GNBT, TTNP.

Readers Respond: Multikine Phase III Announced, Where is Patient Enrollment?

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

A comment from Karen posted to VFC's News, Notes & Weekly Stock Watch at VFC's NEW Stock House:

Why is it taking CVM so long to announce enrolling their first patient considering the test sites were already approved?


Chirp, Chirp.


Karen

VFC's Take:  A full quarter has come and gone since Cel-Sci first announced that the long-awaited Multikine Phase III trial was a go, and there's still been no release regarding the enrollment of the first patient.

Some news that has hit the wires relates to Director compensation and responses to Internet rumors.

The key milestone that investors need to see right now is an enrollment.  The longer the time grows between a trial start and first enrollment, the more investors are going to become anxious and the more fuel the nay-sayers who are spreading the Internet rumors, which the company responded to, are going to gather.

Why has there been no announcement about an enrolled patient? 

We can only speculate.

There's no question that Cel-Sci is a real company, as many have ascertained that it is not, and the Multikine production facility near Baltimore, Maryland is - in fact - there, been there myself.

The thing is, the risk/reward profile of this company is great.  Multikine could change the landscape of not only just head and neck cancer treatment, but for cancer immunotherapy treatments as a whole, being that the treatment does not have to made with a sample from each individual patient. 

It's "off the shelf," per say.

So if it works as advertised, then the rewards realized from this fifty cent stock are going to be phenomenal. 

That said, there's a long way to go from zero patients enrolled to over eight hundred, the number that the company is advertising as the patient size of the trial.

It's a waiting game.  And yes, investors need to see the pace of patient enrollment, because right now the number is zero.

Disclosure:  Long CVM.

Prosper Debt Consolidation Loans

Readers Respond: Titan Receives $3 Million Up-Front for Deerfield's Fanapt Royalty Rate

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

A comment posted to VFC's ORIGINAL Stock House in response to my post regarding Titan Pharmaceuticals' latest credit facility:

I'm not sure you have had a chance to read the detailed 8-k filed, but in short Titan received $3 million from Deerfield for their percentage rights to Fanapt. (See page 1, Royalty Agreement, Exhibit 10.3)

You said you didn't like the loss of part of the Fanapt revenue. With this new information, I'm curious to see if this changes your opinion? To me, Titan immediately brought forward almost 2 years of Fanapt sales. (I used $400K a quarter times 8 quarters and got $3.2 million.) I understand sales could increase, but this seems like a decent trade off given the size of the credit facility?

Your thoughts are appreciated.
Thanks,
C.C.

VFC's Take:  Thanks for the comment, although I still don't like the royalty give-away UNLESS Titan is planning to not be around long enough to have it matter.  Even with a $3 million up-front payment, there's no telling how long it is going to take before we have a chance to assess the deal as worth it or not worth it. 

Essentially, it's a limitless condition in the agreement that could turn out becoming a great caveat for Titan if Fanapt sales remain at the current sales levels, but indications are that Novartis is starting to pick up sales momentum and the deal could turn out to hurt Titan in the mid term, three million dollars or not.

Had the deal been written to state that the three million dollars is an up-front fee in order for Deerfield to receive nine or ten quarters worth of Fanapt sales, I would like it a little more, but I don't like the fact that there is no limit, and if Titan exercises the $40 million buy-back, then that means Fanapt is selling well enough on the market that Deerfield got WAY more in return than the three million they initially dished out.

A man's got to know his limitations, and with this deal we don't know the limits, so I see it as free money for Deerfield because Fanapt is gaining steam on the market place, not losing it.

Again, and I emphasize, I'm not sure Titan is going to be around long enough as a stand-alone for us to find out if this deal is a good one or not.

Once the Phase III data are out, it's either buyout time or big partner time, in my opinion.

Disclosure:  Long TTNP.

Readers Respond: CTSO Price Targets

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

A comment posted to VFC's ORIGINAL Stock House regarding the price targets of CTSO: 

Hello,

If the trial is successful and if this device does get the mark of approval they hope to get does your gut give you an idea of what the pps might rise to? I have heard anywhere from 1.00 to over 30.00.
appreciate your viewpoint
thanks


VFC's Take:  I'll refer the reader to the last post in which I responded to the same question, CTSO Price Targets.  In that posting I stated that I see fifty to seventy five cents as the immediate target for positive trial news, with the potential for much higher gains when/if CE Mark approval were to take place later this year.

Over the long run, the sky is the limit as additional filings and approvals come in, assuming Cytosorb works, because there is no other effective treatment on the market to treat severe sepsis.

You can count on the fact that dilution will become a factor after any initial price spike, limiting the short term upward mobility of the stock, in my opinion.

On the other hand, if the trial is not a success, then expect the share price to collapse, seeing as that there is no pipeline product far enough along to support a quick recovery.  The company has suspended the pipeline to concentrate resources on CytoSorb, according to previous company reports.

Disclosure:  Long CTSO.

Monday, March 21, 2011

BioDelivery Announces Financing Deal

From VFC's News, Notes & Weekly Stock Watch at VFC's NEW Stock House.

BDSI:  BioDelivery Sciences, like Titan mentioned earlier, also announced a financing deal last week.

The dilutive financing terms will bring in $15 million and supply the company with enough cash to last into 2012, when added to the year-end 2010 cash number and assuming no additional larger-than-expected expenditures.

The new cash will be used to fund the continuation of the pipeline, with BEMA buprenorphine being the most advanced of the non-approved products, and supply some additional leeway as the company proceeds with partnership negotiations to bring BEMA bup to market.

It was ho-hum trading for BDSI after the news was announced, like it was also for TTNP, as the price didn't dip any lower than the recent trading range, but those with patience may be buying into a company whose mid to long term future looks bright.

BEMA is a sound technology, the pipeline of applications for the technology is growing and once the REMS issues for Onsolis are settled with the FDA, that product could start bringing in some real revenue.

Disclosure:  Long BDSI.

Free real time stock quotes

Titan Announces $20 Million Credit Facility

From VFC's News, Notes & Weekly Stock Watch at VFC's NEW Stock House.

TTNP:  Titan Pharmaceuticals announced last week that it will release results for the fourth quarter of 2010 on Friday March 25th, with a conference call and webcast to follow on Tuesday the 29th.

The Fanapt numbers have been in for over a month now, so there should be no surprises, although investors will expect to hear comments regarding the $20 million credit facility with Deerfield Management announced last week and the progression of potential partnership talks for Probuphine.

Results from the Phase III Probuphine confirmatory trial are expected in at the end of the second quarter and past actions and statements from Titan have indicated that the company may be looking for a partner, although I have always thought an outright buyout of the company was more likely.

Last week's credit facility in effect repays another existing credit facility, and it's yet to be seen how Titan will employ this line of credit - is it a holdover event to buy additional time to find the right partnership/acquisition deal, or does Titan truly plan to go-it-alone in bringing Probuphine to market?

If the latter is the case, then more money is going to be needed at some point.

The one aspect of the deal that I don't like, however, is the 2.5% of Fanapt revenue that now does not go into the Titan bank account.  That could turn into Titan giving away free money in the long run because the future Fanapt sales are still tough to determine.

That said, Titan might not plan on sticking around long enough to find out; if this deal is just a holdover until the right buyout terms materialize.

The market reacted ho-hum to the announcement last week, but with the conference call and earnings announcement set, TTNP might garner a little bit more attention this week.

Disclosure:  Long TTNP

Readers Respond: Cytosorbents Corporation (CTSO), When Can We Expect Results?

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email, vfc@vfcsstockhouse.com.  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.

optionsXpress

A comment posted to VFC's Stock House regarding Cytosorbents Corp:

Hi Vinny,

Regarding CTSO, how long do you think it can take before they announce, one way or the other, the results of the trials? could it be april, may?

appreciate

VFC's Take:  Also see:  Short term prospects for Cytosorbents, Cytosorbents Stockpiling Cash, and CTSO Price Targets.

To answer the question quickly, I don't know when results should be expected.  It very well could be April and it very well could be May.

The only thing that we do know, is that if the pace of enrollment over the past few months was in line with the latest update from the company regarding the pace, then the trial should be winding down as I type.

That said, until we hear from the company, then we can only guesstimate as to when the trial will complete and the results will be announced.

I'm playing this one cautiously.  As I've mentioned before when asked, my gut is telling me that results will be good enough to justify continuing investigating CytoSorb as a treatment for severe sepsis, but not quite good enough to pass muster for approval.

That said, the risk/reward factor here is so favorable - because positive results will lead to a significant spike, in my opinion - that I'm willing to add shares if we dip too much closer to the ten cent mark.

I'm not too concerned about the recent price slide, as the volume doesn't tell me that it's related to the trial results, but the longer we wait for those results, the more antsy investors will become.

Anyone placing bets on CTSO are already in, I would tend to believe, so it's a waiting game now.

Disclosure:  Long CTSO.


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MedClean Announcs Successful Distributorship Meeting

From VFC's News, Notes & Weekly Stock Watch at VFC's NEW Stock House.

MCLN:  MCLN is already a traders dream for 2011, having realized significant percentage spikes and dips on a few occassions, and the company remains one to watch for both the short and the long term.

No significant monetary announcements have been made for some time, but last week MedClean announced that its first "Distributor Kickoff Meeting" was a success. 

Truth be told, the only measure of "success" in this instance is that the distributors showed up, but it's a sign that MedClean, as a 'green' medical waste disposal company is alive and looking to build on past partnerships and deals.

With the amount of refugees and displaced persons that the world is encountering as a result of the global geopolitical situation and the earthquake in Japan, there is a growing need for MedClean's products and services.

It's yet to be seen if the company can capitalize.

Worth watching, if only for the trade value.

Disclosure:  Long MCLN.

1 oz Credit Suisse Gold Bar .9999 Fine (in Assay)

Friday, March 18, 2011

CPST: Natural Events Could Benefit Capstone as the New Orders Keep Rollin' In

Note:  This post is intended for VFC's Stock House only.  No other repostings or reproductions are authorized. 

Capstone Turbine announced on Thursday that it had secured a follow-on order for six more of its C65 low-emission microturbine units to a prominent natural gas producer who already has 49 Capstone microturbines on hand with over one million hours of combined service time.

This announcement comes just weeks after a 24-unit order from another major oil and natural gas player that is destined to the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas. 

The acquirer of these six units will use them to expand a minigrid system in New Mexico's San Juan Basin.

CPST has been a stock gaining radar traction over the past couple of months following the most positive earnings report to date, and the current global geopolitical events also have attention flowing to companies that are considered to produce or aid the shift to green technology. 

Capstone's low-emission technology fits that bill.

As I've mentioned on numerous previous occassions, every time oil prices are on the rise, CPST tends to do well.  There's also a lot more attention on the future of nuclear energy right now, following the string of unfortunate natural events in Japan.  There's little doubt that the fragility of nuclear energy, when assessing the risk versus the reward, is going to push many nations to undertake means of producing alternative forms of energy technology.

Just as talk of a shift away from a large reliance on tends to bode well for the future of Capstone, the same can be said about a potential shift away from nuclear technology.

As recently as a few months ago, CPST was trading for well under a buck, and while various dips and spikes have characterized this stock for the past few years, 2011 could be shaping up to be the year that the potential upside of this company takes hold and sustained higher prices are realized.

Take note of the volatility and increasing short position, however, because we're now in a market where anything can happen.

That said, the good ones are going to come out on top in the end.

CPST is as good a speculative 'buy the dips' play as there is out there, in my opinion.

Disclosure:   Long CPST.




eToro

Monday, March 14, 2011

Dendreon Receives Expansion Approval

DNDN: Dendreon announced some positive news last week that offers some short term growth potential to the share price.

The FDA approved the expansion of the company's New Jersey plant to 48 Provenge-manufacturing stations from 12.

Previous company statements have estimated Provenge sales closing in on $200 million/quarter by the fourth quarter, and the expansion in the Jersey facility put Dendreon on the path to approach that number.

If the FDA approvals of Dendreon's manufacturing facilities in Georgia and Los Angeles move ahead as seemless as Jersey's, then it's a sure bet that DNDN is going to be running on all cylinders heading into 2012.

Any dips to, or below, the thirty dollar mark will be the big buy time, in my opinion.

Disclosure: No Position.

1 oz Credit Suisse Gold Bar .9999 Fine (in Assay)

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