Personalized wine makes the perfect gift!
ACTC: After weeks of
monumental volume that began when the FDA offered Advanced Cell Technology a
history-making green lightto initiate only the second embryonic stem cell trial ever, shares of ACTC broke through the twenty cent barrier on Friday and set a new 52-week high of twenty one cents.
ACTC closed the day at just under twenty cents, nearly ten percent to the upside on volume triple the normal average.
It'll be interesting to see whether this most recent run is sustainable through the end of the year, as profit takers and traders may find the twenty cent mark too enticing an exit point to hold through the holidays.
The long term potential of ACT looks better than it ever has, but after shooting up from a nickel in a short period of time, it's always a good idea - in my opinion - for an investor to reward his or herself with some of those profits, especially just before the holiday season kicks into high gear.
I still have my core position of ACTC intact, but with the trading shares about expended, I'll be looking to reload for the future on any potential pullback; it was only Wednesday of last week that the volatile ACTC revisited the thirteen cent range.
This one is still an
excellent alternative to GERN as a long term stem cell pick, in my opinion, but no longer is Advanced Cell trading under the radar. The recent news releases and impressive run have this company on everyone's radar. I think there's still room for additional short term upside, but keep in mind that no matter how much potential this company holds for the future of the stem cell industry, the pipeline is still in the early stages of development.
Disclosure: Long ACTC.
MNKD: Another week closer to the FDA's decision day for Mannkind's inhaled insulin spray, Afrezza, keeps MNKD on the front burner once again. With the pending approval decision due, MNKD has traded as one of the
more volatile stocks over the past few weeks, rising as high as $9.23 on December 15th after having opened the month three bucks below that mark.
Predictions regarding how the FDA will rule have been varied, with odds varying from 40% chance of approval to as high as 85% chance, depending on where you look. Due to the fickle nature of the FDA and the fact that MNKD has already enjoyed a pretty significant run in short time, I'm always a fan of taking some profit off of the table before the decision is announced.
Additionally, the nature of the biotech beast these days has seen 'approval' stocks decline in price after a decision is reached, regardless of whether that decision is positive or not. There's no telling if MNKD will follow that pattern, so it may be worth holding onto some 'just in case' shares through D-day - if only because of the potential that Afrezza could revolutionize insulin treatments for diabetics - but putting a few bucks of profit back into the wallet is always a good thing right before the holidays, in my opinion.
Other items of note regarding the Afrezza decision:
- Generex's Oral-lyn, another insulin spray product - should be in the final phases of a Phase III trial and could be on the heels of Afrezza to market. Oral-lyn has been deemed the safer alternative to Afrezza by some since the insulin is absorbed through the inner lining of the cheek, whereas Afrezza is an inhaled spray and the insulin is absorbed through the lungs.
- A former Mannkind employee, John Arditi, filed a wrongful termination suit against the company alleging fraud and cover-up during Afrezza's latest clinical trial, although the
lawsuit was voluntarily pulled a short time after it was filed. There's no reason to believe that the suit will be a relevant factor during the FDA approval process, but the attention may lead to increased scrutiny - after all, FDA officials are only human.
Now less than two weeks away, the volatility should continue with MNKD trading and this is a big story - in terms of stock potential and diabetic treatment - to watch through the end of the year and into 2011.
The days of diabetics receiving insulin through injections may be coming to an end.
Disclosure: No position.
CVM: If the global Phase III Mulitkine trial is going to commence before year's end 2010, as
indicated as late as last week in a press release issued by Cel-Sci, then time is winding down and a launch PR should be expected.
Investors have received updates on trial site approvals every step of the way, and a PR was even issued announcing a preparatory meeting in Prague where certainly some brain cells were killed, but probably as a result of activities not associated with Multikine treatment.
The trial is slated to be the largest ever conducted for head and neck cancer treatment, and since Multikine is being tested as a first line treatment, it'll be a pretty big deal when the launch date is announced.
There's no saying whether that will translate into a significant run in the CVM share price over the short term, but the long term potential of Multikine makes this one quite the intriguing pick.
There's additional potential wrapped up in the LEAPS platform, and the Baltimore area cold-fill facility offers a potential revenue stream from contracting services, but all eyes are on Multikine right now, and the end-of-2010 start deadline is quickly closing in on us.
Disclosure: Long CVM.
MHAN: Manhattan Pharmaceuticals might not be so much as a stock to watch this week, but it's worth noting that there was a pulse in the MHAN ticker last week as the company announced preliminary Phase I/II results for AST-915, a treatment for essential tremor.
AST-915, a product developed by Manhattan's wholly-owned subsidiary Ariston Pharmaceuticals, was found to be safe and effective in the 18-subject trial, although the final data is still being compiled and will be released in 2011.
Manhattan is still a hugely speculative play, but one that could realize significant returns if the right news ever combines with any hype. The most immediate potential for news revolves around Hedrin, an insecticide-free treatment for head lice for which Manhattan and joint venture partner Nordic own the North American marketing rights.
The two entities are locked up in a dispute over ownership of shares, however, and it's suspect whether the Phase III trial necessary for approval in the United States will ever take place.
MHAN should by no means be considered a safe long term investment, but the potential for a double or triple in price (if not much more) always exists with little known, small companies such as this one that have the potential to release relevant news.
Investments in these speculative plays should only be used with 'night on the town' money, as I like to say - meaning only money that was slotted aside for Grey Goose should be used. This way, if it doesn't pan out, then all you really lost is a hangover, but if it does pay off, then that night on the town has turned into a few nights out.
I'm partial to some of these speculative plays, as it only takes one good hit (DNDN, TTNP, SIRI, CSUH, for example) to have you playing on house money forever.
Highly speculative, but worth watching.
Disclosure: Long MHAN.
Originally posted Sunday at VFC's NEW Stock House.
