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Friday, March 26, 2010

Readers Respond: GNBT

I'll knock out a few more GNBT emails/comments and then hopefully this issue will be put to rest for a while - it really is nonsense when you think about it that so many people react just because TheStreet.com issues garbage material.

It's quite ironic, don'tcha think? That TheStreet.com, as a publicly traded company, is running the very scam that Adam Feuerstein accuses each and every biotech company of running - shamming investors into thinking that they're getting something when all they keep spitting out is garbage.

An email from RJ Steffens:

Hi Vic,

First, I follow youon Alpha and read your blogspot. Thanks for your insights and effort. I also have a blogspot thingie (lol) and have written about Generex on Alpha. As you probably know, assuming you still hold shares of GNBT, TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein threw one of his innaccurate opinion pieces right at GNBT shareholder's. I don't mind real criticism, but he said things I can prove are untrue.

Long story short (which is against my typical fashion!), I wrote responses in his comments section and know wrote an insta blog at Alpha. They may not publish this one as an article, since TheStreet may advertise there. I wanted to get your attention, since you have a ton of followers (like me) and I have barely any. Here is my blog on Adam:

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/112537-r-j-steffens/59667-in-support-of-generex-from-thestreet

This is my blogspot featuring DD on Generex/Antigen:

http://pipelinereview.blogspot.com/

I read a piece in the past by you where you went after Feuernstein in an accurate and fact based report. So I am reaching out in case you are interested in his slander against Generex and, if so, I just provided a detailed and factual blog you can mention to highlight his misinformation.

Thanks,

RJ Steffens


VFC's Take: Sorry it took a while to get back on this one, RJ. I still do hold shares of GNBT and I appreciate the efforts of those such as yourself that choose to look for the facts, rather than take the word of a glorified blogger who blogs for a sham organization.

I like your point about advertising money - that's what talks, and at the end of the day, some websites may choose not to slander TheStreet because money talks, but let's keep in mind that AF's main goal is to pull in clicks and readership to his blog. That's probably the main reason why he likes to incite controversy, because people get all fired up and respond.

And each reader gives them about five or six clicks since you have to 'turn the page' after every five words.

It's no doubt why these clowns are losing their credibility.



An anonymous comment:

Interesting how TheStreet.com didn't respond to Generex's press release! Caught in a lie? ...or back in their hole? Companies like GNBT with new technologies need support from the investing community in order to raise much needed capital and liquidity to further their research. Hopefully the people writing disparaging remarks about these companies won't need their products in the years to come, but others WILL!

VFC's Take: Well TheStreet finally responded, although the response was a small-printed retraction designed to be seen by as few people as possible, by the looks of it.

Did you ever hear a six year old kid in the schoolyard saying, "Yeah, well I may be wrong, but I still think that you stink!"

That's exactly went on with that retraction. It's too bad Feuerstein's "React-o-Meter" hit the 11 mark, he might have had a more cool-toned response and not allowed himself to look quite the five year old on Friday.

As for your second comment, you'd never wish an illness on anyone. However, many of these clowns out there that disregard the development of treatment and medicine end up getting a rude awakening to life when they or someone that is close to them contracts a life-threatening disease or illness.

The problem is, these people are so blinded by money and greed for the time being that they give no thought to those that may benefit from the advancements of medicine - much of which comes from the biotech sector.

I always suggest that when a person finds themself becoming too consumed with greed, to either visit a hospital or two, a cancer ward or even a third world country where people are suffering.

Unfortunately, ego, power, greed and money can consume an individual to the point where humanity is forgotten.

Look at Jim Cramer: with all his millions and millions, don't you think he would find a happy medium, chill out and see the world at this point? But he doesn't, because his ego won't take him off the TV and he's turned on the very industry that set him up (search the Internet where he talks about how easy it is for the hedgies to manipulate markets). Then he wants you to be a sucker and pay for a subscription to a website that is highly suspected of manipulation, manipulation that is geared to take money from the very people that pay to subscribe.

Anyway, it will take a life-altering experience for these people to finally get it, and VFC hopes - for their sake - that it doesn't come too late, because you only live one time and you only get one chance to make a difference.


$1000 Cash Now!


I'm all GNBT-ed out for the week. Time to hit the Goose, or maybe the Finlandia - I think I might like that brand better now. Might have to try them both to be sure.

Enjoy the weekend, good luck, all.

VFC out.

Disclosure: Long GNBT.


EZTrader.com

GNBT: Generex, Let's Keep It Real

Before starting off on this one, let’s just clarify one thing so that the focus of this post isn’t lost:

With each and every investment that an individual makes, there is always the chance that the investment will either decrease or be lost entirely. There is great risk associated with investing – especially with the speculative types – but with that risk comes the possible rewards of an investment paid off. There are risky investments and there are less-risky investments, but the less-risky investments tend to not pay off as much as risky ones do. Unfortunately, the riskier investments also come with a greater the chance that they won’t pan out.

For that reason, it is up to each individual investor to decide what is his or her tolerance level for risk and comfort zone for investing in the speculative plays – especially in the volatile biotech sector.

I’ve said it before and I say it again, when playing with speculative stocks it is my opinion that the small investor should not risk more than some ‘night on the town’ money on any particular stock. This way, if the investment doesn’t pan out, the only thing really lost is a hangover.

Of course, each person’s financial situation determines how much a night on the town would really cost. The guy in Hazard County drinking moonshine isn’t going to consider a night on the town to be worth as much as a Goose-guzzling New Yorker. It’s up to each individual to conduct his or her own DD and determine fro themselves whether or not the risk is worth the potential rewards.

In that sense, Generex is no different than any other speculative investment. Oral-lyn is by no means a shoo-in for approval, but by no means is the Phase III oral insulin product dead-on-arrival either.

You can’t ignore either side of the argument, but you can weed out the obvious biases of certain individuals or websites and rely on your own judgment as to what to believe, take into consideration and – most importantly – how much to risk on any one investment.

Remember the amount of naysayers that were out to destroy Dendreon? They claimed that Oncophage didn’t work and that Dendreon – as a small biotech trying to make it in a world of large pharma – stood no chance at having their product approved by the FDA. Many an investor (including this one) was glad to have decided that the risk of a speculative in that company was worth the possible rewards. There’s also a bunch out there that are kicking themselves for not placing at least a small investment on that company.

The truth is, and this is more important for the small investor than the big boys who can manipulate themselves to prosperity, that one nice hit FROM speculative investment can more than make up for dozens that don’t. DNDN is a fine example, as is TTNP, VNDA and a bunch of others over the past year or so.

In my opinion, Generex – with a market cap of around 140 million – is worth some speculative money because if the Oral-lyn Phase III results look promising, then a nice spike could be in store for the stock. Additionally, pure speculation alone could lead to a spike in price – speculation about pending results or speculation that the product could be approved.

Now, as for the subject of a second TheStreet.com biotech blog heavily biased bash against the company, I couldn’t help but hear the words to that new Ke$ha song when I read it – “Blah, Blah, Blah” and more of the same. Did anyone expect anything different?

A couple of notes that I took when reading the posting:

In the opening paragraph, TheStreet’s biotech blogger Adam Feuerstein writes that his “React-o-Meter” went to 11, presumably on a scale of 10, after Generex issued a PR asking for a retraction of his previous statements. That ‘React-O-Meter” sent him on another heavily biased tirade against the company (one in which he failed to refute the points that Generex discussed in their ‘rebuttal PR’), but maybe most importantly it also led him to issue the very retraction that Generex asked for, although hidden away at the bottom of the last page of the article where it would gain the least notice.

However, the most telling quote from the new piece is this one:

“For a veteran reporter and columnist like myself who enjoys nothing more than exposing the modern day snake oil salesmen of the biotech age”

From this statement we can see both that Feuerstein believes that he is a reporter AND that he is all but admitting outright that he already has preconceived notions about the companies and products about which he is supposed to report on.

In the real world, those two items would contradict themselves, but in biotech blog land – that’s what you get, a “reporter” who is supposed to report on a subject, but already has the story written before knowing the facts of the case because he believes that every story is the same.

If Mr. Feuerstein believes that each and every company and product in the biotech sector is a farce, then are readers of TheStreet.com’s biotech blog supposed to believe that they are getting a fair and objective view of the sector? More than likely, they’re starting to see the truth for what it is, because Adam just now told us what it is – his agenda is to convince as many people as he can that the biotech sector is an evil one. Or maybe that agenda covers up for a larger one – that the admitted, preconceived negative bias is a tool to allow some ‘friends’ to either short a stock or ‘buy on the cheap,’ as is suspected by many around the biotech message board world.

I think that it is highly ignorant of one who proclaims to be a reporter to already have an ending in sight before the story is written, because that is not reporting – that is speculating. A reporter reports the news and lets the viewer or reader make their own decisions, not tell the audience what they should think.

However, a blog has the luxury of being full of opinions, preconceived notions and biases. Go back and read TheStreet.com’s Generex write-up and you decide if it should be considered news written by a reporter or a blog post written by a blogger. Or maybe even more accurate, it resembles a Yahoo! message board post. This will be the only time that I ever recommend that anyone read anything on that website – I don’t trust them and I think that they have an ulterior agenda.

Why else pay to have your articles postes as ‘news’ on Yahoo! Finance?

I’m not here to decide who’s right or wrong or how the story will end – that’s what speculating is for.

I’m just trying to keep it real.


Thursday, March 25, 2010

Readers Respond: GNBT - A Response From David Kliff

David Kliff wrote:

I found the piece posted on the Boston Globe web site interesting as it states; "David Kliff, editor of Diabetic Investor, thinks that Generex Biotech (GNBT - news - people ) is a big bargain at about $2 a share. Kliff says the company has "the best technology for alternative delivery of insulin," which is by mouth.

While this quote is accurate it is also taken out of context. I wrote this several years ago when first investigating GNBT. However I changed my mind as the company never followed through with well designed strong clinical studies that would show the product actually worked.

I have no problem with the delievry device, the problem is the lack of substantive data on the product itself, the actual drug.

I would appreciate before you post something that you contact me so I provide all the facts. It is a major disservice to any of your followers to post something without getting all the facts.

You can easily find my contact information at wwww.diabeticinvestor.com


VFC's Take: If this post is in fact from Mr. Kliff, I appreciate the feedback. The explanation of changing your mind when the company did not produce up to your expectations is quite valid.

That said, I would hope this same comment went to TheStreet.com's biotech blog because that blog posting did not represent the facts as you've described here - the fact that your mind was changed over time. I would hope you are holding that organization to the same standards that you are VFC's Stock House.

In fact - I didn't misrepresent anything here or leave out the facts, the words that I previously posted described the same story that you just told - you supported the stock and now you don't - I even mentioned that you had most likely changed your mind. The only hole in the story was the reason and you have just provided that, and I appreciate it.

My main concern, however, is that there is a pattern of contradiction and bias with TheStreet.com's biotech blog that makes the change of stance look awfully suspect, if only because the new stance was quoted by an organization whose headmaster is all over the Internet describing how easy it is to manipulate stock prices. When you hang out with a skunk, then you end with that skunk's stink on you for a long time, and I'm sorry if you fell victim to that fact, Mr. Kliff.

In all fairness, your story - the way that you outlined it here - would have made TheStreet's biotech blog posting look more like a reasonable response than just an outright bash on a company that may be offering an alternative to the needle.

Instead of telling the whole story to TheStreet.com - the way you claim to want it represented - you chose to instead state that "Generex is full of crap...always."
In all honesty, that sounds nothing like the reasonable explanation that you gave here.

I hope you chased down TheStreet just like you chased me down, although the comments you made to Feuerstein go right along with his negative bashing ways, and I will say that, judging from comments I've seen here and on the message boards, your website/newsletter lost a whole lot of credibility by being associated with TheStreet's biotech blog.

I like to believe that there are two view points to every story (at least two), and you don't get that over there.

Disclosure: Long GNBT.

Readers' Picks: GTHP.pk

An anonymous comment regarding Guided Therapeutics (GTHP.pk):

Hey VFC,

Any Thoughts on GTHP.PK, this one good be blockbuster, only 19mill o/s. Thanks


VFC's Take: Guided Therapeutics' main claim to fame is LightTouch, a non-intrusive and painless test for the early detection of cervical cancer. With the screening, diagnosis and treatment of cervical cancer being a six billion dollar market, it's hard to ignore the potential of this company and its stock, especially because there isn't one woman in America - or the world, for that matter - who wouldn't prefer a non-intrusive alternative to a Pap smear.

Guided Therapeutics has conducted the necessary trials needed in order to file for approval with the US FDA as a medical device, and results of the most recent trial are being presented this week at the American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology biennial meeting in Las Vegas.

According to a Wednesday morning press release, results of the trial were positive, indicating that LightTouch detected 49% more significant cervical disease than the current standard of care. It's also likely that additional PRs may be forthcoming regarding the trial, with two already being issued this week, not including the 10-k on Monday.

The stock price remained relatively stagnant on the recent news, although it has doubled since late last year and reached a high of $1.70 at one point.

While the product definitely looks promising, there are concerns as well - mostly being issues of financing. It should be expected that the company is going to have to undertake some dilution in order to raise capital to continue operations and bring LightTouch to market, but that fact alone should not completely deter investors away from a company that could end up bringing in a very significant revenue stream at some point in the mid term future.

The fact that the stock still trades on the pink sheets is an additional hurdle, and it should be expected that the company will move from the pinks to the big boards at some point in the short to mid term.

Another possibility is that, once approval seems imminent, a big pharma may just gobble-up Guided Therapeutics, LightTouch and the rest of the pipeline for a nice chunk of change.

At the least, if LightTouch is for real, I think a partner will come on board.

GTHP, with a market cap of just over twenty million, definitely makes sense as a speculative investment right now, especially considering the potential of LightTouch as an alternative to the Pap.

If this stock moves, it could move in a hurry, although I wouldn't rule out some volatility - we're in the age right now where stocks receiving FDA approvals are dropping in price post-approval, so I would say to try and take advantage of the spikes and dips that may come along over the short to mid term - and use the opportunities that present themselves to get on house money just in case LightTouch doesn't pan out.

That said, the short to mid term will become a moot point if the FDA agrees that LightTouch is everything that Guided Therapeutics says it is, because once this product is rolled out, it could literally change the face of cervical screening for women, who won't have to cringe anymore when they know that it's time for that annual exam.

This is a product that can make life more pleasant for the women AND can bring in a nice payday for investors - what a match - because happier women make life a whole lot better for the guys who will spend the investment money on Grey Goose and Big TVs.

I'd say GTHP is worth a speculative buy, but I would expect a dip before a major spike - that'll be the key that some big boys are out to start grabbing shares, in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.

optionsXpress

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Readers Respond: BIEL, GNBT

BIEL.pk: From Dave regarding the BIEL buying restrictions:

Just thought I'd let you know that Scottrade is now accepting BIEL orders.

VFC's Take: Excellent news, thanks for the update. It's certainly a good thing when potential investors are able to purchase shares of a stock that they want to buy.

It should be an exciting year for BioElectronics, with the biggest challenge being the FDA - in my opinion. While international growth is encouraging, I still can't shake the feeling that the FDA will do all they can to keep a small company like BioElectronics from competing with the big-moneyed big pharma on the open market.

In the end, however, I think that the product will win, it might just take a little bit longer than expected.

Disclosure: Long BIEL.



GNBT: An anonymous comment regarding TheStreet's biotech blogger and Generex:

Vinny,
I urge you to read today's article by Adam Feuerestein at TheStreet.com and provide a rebuttal argument to the extremely flimsy "evidence" that Adam uses to call Generex a bust. Also not in particular some very intelligent comments (I'm sure I don't need to tell you). The article is very negative and seemingly based solely on the opinion of a self-proclaimed diabetes expert (David Kliff) who seems to just run a diabetes investment blog - that's right, investment! Adams seems to imply that the fact that Kliff is diabetic himself adds significant weight to his blog. Honestly, I don't know how credible Kliff is, but it seems to me that to write such a heavy handed and authoritative indictment of Generex, he would need some substantial backup . . . I don't see that he does.


From Claudia:

Look at this link, albiet old, from Kiff who Feuerstein cites as an expert diabetic:

http://www.bioexchange.com/news/news_page71c7.html?id=13388

Funny!
Claudia


VFC's Take: Regarding Kliff, I think that the link provided by Claudia sums up the common theme that goes along with reading anything from TheStreet's biotech blog - you've got to take it with a grain of salt.

While Kliff may have just changed his mind over the years, you wouldn't know that from reading the biotech blog and it just adds to the overall shadiness of anything associated with an article authored by TheStreet's biotech blogger, in my opinion.

As for a rebuttal, I think Generex handled that themselves and they seem to be taking more action than other biotech companies that have been hammered with misinformation from TheStreet.


Need Cash?


More regarding GNBT:

TheStreet.com excoriated (I love this word, look up its roots) Generex Biotechnology today. He claims Oral-lyn was never written up in peer review journals nor presented at top flight meetings. Isn't this totally false? How should sense be made of this? The stock is down in the premarket. Is this a buying opportunity? Do you still think it will be approved?

VFC's Take: I still like GNBT as a buy for roughly sixty cents, but I still believe that it is a speculative buy. I'm not set on the fact that it will be approved, but I still do believe that we'll see a spike to over a dollar as the time for Phase III results approaches. The rise in price will be the result of speculation, in my opinion, because if Oral-Lyn is proven to work, then a greater run in price will be in store.

It's a waiting game at this point.


#1 in Identity Theft Protection

CELH: Another Clinical Study for Celsius Sparks a Rally

Celsius Holdings announced on Wednesday morning the results from the latest clinical study measuring the effectiveness of the drink when combined with moderate exercise.

This sixth study, according to the PR, demonstrated that those who consumed a can of Celsius shortly before engaging in moderate exercise enjoyed 78% more fat loss and a 114% decrease in body fat percentage than those who did not use the product.

The chief researcher of the study was Jeffrey R. Stout, PhD and the results were presented at the American College of Nutrition and published in the Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research.

Each study thus far has reinforced the company's claims of the calorie burning and fitness-enhancing benefits of the product, although none of the studies have yet been endorsed by the US FDA.

In addition to announcing the stellar results from the latest study, the company also announced the launch of a new campaign that labels Celsius as "Your Ultimate Fitness Partner". Accompanying the new slogan and fitness campaign will be a series of Ultimate Workout Challenges that are due to begin in May, as described on the new "Ultimate Fitness Partner" website.

Up until this point we haven't heard too much from the company's celebrity spokesman, Mario Lopez, but it's probably safe to assume that Lopez - being a fitness buff himself - will play a fairly significant role in advertising the upcoming workout challenges.

For the day on Wednesday, after the study results were announced, shares of Celsius Holdings enjoyed the best trading day in months (from a long perspective) and rallied to close twenty percent higher on volume nearly five times the daily average.

I'm of the opinion that the study results alone are not what led to the fairly significant price rebound, because the product's fitness-enhancement benefits have been known for some time, but it is possible that the study results - in combination with a growing advertising and awareness campaign - are drawing enough new interest to the stock to spark such a spike.

It's also possible that there is something else brewing behind the scenes that retail investors have not been clued into just yet, such as unannounced, major distribution or surprising first quarter numbers.

That said, one day does not qualify a full rally, so the trading action for the rest of the week could be more telling as to whether or not the renewed energy demonstrated by CELH on Wednesday is for real or not.

It's been a long time coming, but this company is taking measured steps to position itself as a leader in the health and fitness beverage market, coming as a healthy alternative to sugar-laden energy and soft drinks.

CEO Steve Haley recently offered $25 million as an estimate for total 2010 earnings - in addition to becoming cash flow break-even - and if those numbers are approached, then this stock has plenty of room to grow.

There's still a very strong and determined team of Celsius 'Get Bash Crew' members that spend countless hours day and night on the Internet trying to discredit this company, so the volatility is certainly not yet over, but as awareness and distribution grow, Celsius could emerge as a big player in the healthy beverage market.

The latest study was encouraging, but it's my belief that this news could just be the tip of the iceburg for what's to come in 2010.

As always, each investor should do their own DD and come to their own conclusions.

Disclosure: VFC is long CELH.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

BIEL: Allay Headed to Japan

A move of the Allay patch into the Japanese market is an expected follow-up to it was recent news that YesDTC had acquired the rights to market and distribute the ActiPatch in Japan. Tuesday's PR by BioElectronics announced just that, as the distribution agreement with YesDTC to bring Allay to Japan has been signed.

According to the PR, YesDTC will first initiate a direct response television advertising campaign for Allay, but is also formulating a strategy to also distribute the product in the retail sector.

After recently announcing strong initial sales in Latin America, Japan could also prove to be a lucrative market based on that society's preference for treatments that don't involve putting drugs in the body.

With the current health risks of Tylenol and Ibuprofen recently coming to light, it's my opinion that both ActiPatch and Allay could become more than just niche products in the pain and swelling market.

The Japan announcement had little effect on the stock price as shares of BIEL continued to trade for just over three cents, although it's still unclear if all the buying restrictions imposed on the BIEL stock by various brokers have been lifted.

With the 2009 completed audit weeks away, fourth quarter numbers due out and FDA news always a possibility, BIEL may have quite a few catalysts over the next few months that could offer investors who are buying now some nice returns, in my opinion.

I still think that we've got a winner here, but only time will tell. For now, the international growth is encouraging while we're waiting on a decision from the US FDA.

Disclosure: Long BIEL.

Briefs: ONTY, BDSI, CELH

ONTY: Shares of Oncothyreon dropped into the mid three dollar range on Tuesday after it was announced by Merck KGaA that all Stimuvax trials were put on hold due to a patient contracting encephalitis in one of the trials.

An investigation is underway to discover the cause of this event - the first of its kind in any of the Stimuvax trials - and, of course, to determine whether or not the encephalitis was Stimuvax related.

According to the PR on Tuesday, the affected patient was part of a trial arm whose participants were given more of the chemotherapeutic agent cyclophosphamide than in other arms.

Merck gave no indication of how long the trials will be on hold, pending the investigation.

For the time being I sold the remaining ONTY shares that I had on hand as a result of this news, although I'll watch the stock, keep an eye on future press releases and possibly buy back in at a later date.

Disclosure: No position.



BDSI: On Monday BioDelivery Sciences issued a press release announcing the positive outcome of a meeting with the FDA on the development program for BEMA Granisetron. BEMA Granisetron is the company’s potential treatment for the prevention of nausea and vomiting associated with cancer therapy and utlitzes the same BEMA technology as BioDelivery's recently approved product, Onsolis.

It'll be quite a while before BEMA Granisetron is near commercialization, but the announcement contains encouraging information for those who view BDSI as a nice long term growth play, as I do.

Disclosure: Long BDSI.


Magic Payday - Up to $1000


CELH: Shares of Celsius Holdings remained trading for three dollars on Tuesday after the company issued a press release announcing that three flavors of the calorie burning product would be available at Cumberland Farms locations beginning in April of this year. The Cumberland distribution adds to an already robust distribution network in the NorthEast.

If this company's recent revenue growth continues through the next couple of quarters and approaches the $25 million 2010 revenue number recently suggested by CEO Steve Haley, then these three dollar shares are going to be looked back upon as a steal, in my opinion.

Disclosure: Long CELH.

GNBT: TheStreet.com Vs. Generex

Sorry for being so slow to respond to this story, I've had a few emails and comments sitting in my inbox for days that I'm only now getting around to answering.

The buzz surrounding Generex of late was created by Adam Feuerstein of TheStreet.com who blogged a negative piece on Generex Biotechnologies and the company's Phase III oral insulin product, Oral-Lyn. According to Feuerstein, the company is a scam and the product doesn't work.

In response, Generex issued a press release on Tuesday demanding a retraction and an apology from TheStreet, arguing that the bulk of Feuerstein's main points in his blog post regarding Oral-Lyn were false and misleading.

My first thoughts after learning that Feuerstein went negative on GNBT were thoughts of indifference because I certainly don't value his opinion or information enough to consider it worthwhile DD, and a growing number of investors are starting to lean that way also, judging by the message board chatter.

My interest was peaked enough to read his blog post, however, (I usually don't click on his articles) simply because I considered it out of the norm that he would write about a stock that hasn't had a recent major run-up.

For the most part, when a stock in the biotech sector enjoys a major spike, it's pretty much a given that it will retrace again after the spike. It's on those spikes that Feuerstein seems to like going negative on a company because it's pretty easy to guess that the stock will drop again anyway, especially if he does have the help from his and Cramer's cronies, as is suspected by many.

This time it was only after Mannkind received the bad news about their own insulin inhaler that Feuerstein spoke, and it could be just a coincidence since the MNKD drop created such a stir, but it's becoming harder and harder to believe that the guy does not have an ulterior motive every time he publishes a blog post.

That said, aside from the general feeling of blah, blah, blah that you're treated to when you read his stuff (because it always feels like we've heard it all before), a couple of notes did stand out to me, and this first one is an example of what I mean about it becoming harder and harder to believe that TheStreet.com and Feuerstein (and their cronies) are always being completely up front when they post:

In his article, Feuerstein refers to David Kliff from the Diabetic Investor newsletter:

David Kliff, a diabetic himself who runs the well-respected Diabetic Investor newsletter, has followed Generex for years and is more succinct in his appraisal. "Generex is full of crap -- always."

However, in those "years" during which Kliff has followed Generex (according to Feuerstein) Kliff also had this to say that indicates the word "always" is a subjective term in this case:

David Kliff, editor of Diabetic Investor, thinks that Generex Biotech (nasdaq: GNBT - news - people ) is a big bargain at about $2 a share. Kliff says the company has "the best technology for alternative delivery of insulin," which is by mouth.

I'm all for someone changing their mind, but there's always that 'stink factor' when something or someone is associated to Feuerstein, and most importantly, I'd hate to think that a personal investment is influencing the editor of an established newsletter that is geared toward diabetics.

I also liked his comment that "Common sense should tell you that an insulin spray like Oral-Lyn is more fiction than science."

I'm not here to say that Oral-Lyn works or doesn't work - we'll know soon enough, but it's a scary assumption (or an easy cop-out) to claim that medicine cannot advance because the 'common sense' of a Street.com blogger doesn't think it can. Every single day scientists and doctors are bringing new technology and medicine to the field, most of which would test anyone's faith in common sense - that's why some of the greatest developments of mankind were discovered by accident.

Additionally, Feuerstein writes that if Oral-Lyn worked as advertised, then Generex would surely have been bought out by now. That's another fine assumption, but that's all it is - an assumption.

Let's make on thing clear - Feuerstein makes his living on assumptions. His assumptions are that everything in the biotech world is doomed to failure. It's my opinion, however, (to quote an old-school Segal flick) that "assumption is the mother of all screw ups." I'll let the story play out, and I'll take input from various sources, but TheStreet.com nor that website's 'assumptions' are not one of those sources.

There's pleny of good medicine and treatments coming out of the biotech world, but it's easier to attract clicks and attention to a website by going negative and just assuming that the sector is one doomed to failure. That's what Feuerstein does, and it's just become an accepted fact for those investing in the biotech world.

Investors shouldn't get angry at the guy - everyone's gotta make a living somehow, even if that living involves creating a world of negativity. If he bashes a stock that you've done your DD on and are confident in, then take advantage of any dip in price that he creates and add shares.

That said, the fact that GNBT barely responded to his piece is testament that he has little influence on stocks that haven't already experienced a nice run and are looking to retreat anyway. Either that or people are starting to roll their eyes and say "Here we go again" every time the guy publishes a new blog post.

All just my opinion, each investor should do his or her own DD, invest accordingly and come to their own conclusions.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.


Thursday, March 18, 2010

Readers Respond: Options Trading, OWVI

A comment from Fransisco:

Hey Vinny,
I am wanting to get into trading options. I was wondering if you could point me in the right direction as far as informative website's and/or books that would give me a good insight into the world of options? Also do you feel that option trading is a good tool the small investor can utilize?
Thanks
Francisco


VFC's Take: For those looking at trading options, I recommend reading Jim Cramer's Real Money. While I've got no faith in Cramer as a person, I think that his books are great for small investors.

I'll give credit where credit is due, and he's got a knack for explaining the markets to the little guy, in fact, if you do a YouTube search, you can find clips of Cramer all over the place describing how easy it is to manipulate markets and shake shares from the very people that tune in (or not) to his program every night.

Cramer has an insatiable appetite for money and ego, but I would say that it's safe to look past those faults and learn a thing or two from his books.

I'll give credit where credit is due.

You can also Google options trading, most likely it won't take too long to find a site that fits your needs and describes things in a way that you can understand.

Thanks for the comment.

Click here to visit LaSalle Trading Systems.

OWVI.pk: An email from Jess regarding One World Ventures:

Hey Vinnie, your thoughts on OWVI Thanks, Jess

VFC's Take: One World is strictly a speculative penny play at this point, in my opinion. While the company's website and press releases outline a fairly significant amount of potential, I'd have to play the volatility that inherently comes with sub-penny stocks and not get caught up in holding an entire position for the long term.

Like any penny stock, if significant news hits or if a big buyer comes in, then a huge percentage swing could be in order. However, like most penny stocks, the significant percentage swing would most likely be followed by a significant decline in price.

I haven't done in-depth DD on this company, each investor should invest on his or her own comfort level, tolerance for risk and based on DD.

Disclosure: No position.

Covestor Investment Management

Online Trading Academy

Readers Respond: NRIFF

An anonymous comment regarding Nuvo Research Inc (TSX: NRI), (OTC: NRIFF):

Please comment on nuvo research NRI. Its performance has been terrible since it pennsaid was fda approved in usa. You haven't commented about this company in awhile and I would appreciate your thoughts on it.

VFC's Take: It has been a while since I last discussed NRIFF, and the stock has remained remained stagnant since the FDA approved Pennsaid last November.

It's my opinion that the stock will remain stagnant until Pennsaid, which will be distributed in the United States by a Covidien subsidiary, is on the market in the US and the company starts to realize some revenue numbers. Once before I mentioned that NRIFF was a sort of poor man's BDSI, in the sense that both stocks dropped after an FDA approval (consistent with current trading trends) yet both have the potential to rebound significantly once their respective products are on the market.

Another factor contributing to Nuvo's stagnation, in my opinion, is the fact that the company has nearly four hundred million shares outstanding - a perceived high number for company's current position - and there's always the possibility that that number will grow.

Do you make these mistakes in the stock market?

Additionally, the company recently announced that all eligible convertible debentures were converted to common stock for a price roughly half of what the stock was trading for on the open market.

All said, NRIFF has remained 'under the radar', in my opinion, and will likely remain that way until Pennsaid starts making news. That's not necessarily a bad thing for patient investors who want to buy now and wait for the Pennsaid story to unfold, but in the impatient world of stock trading, that's not good enough for a lot of people.

Pennsaid is currently set to hit the US market in the second quarter of this year, making a bump in price a possibility at that time, but I think that any significant moves would come later in the year as we start to get a good idea how the product is selling.

All just my opinion, each investor should do his or her own research and come to his or her own conclusions.

Disclosure: VFC is long NRIFF.


EZTrader.com

Celsius Holdings (CELH): The Recent Debt Conversion

On March 10th, Celsius Holdings issued a press release announcing that the company had "converted to common stock approximately $5.1 million of its convertible debt and all of the remaining preferred shares."

The bulk of the conversion was done by CDS Ventures, a Carl DeSantis company, which converted $4.5 million of the $6.5 million outstanding balance of its convertible debt to common stock (conversion price of $10.20) and also converted all of its series A preferred shares. Another un-named holder of convertible debt also converted over $600,000 for just below $3.50 a share.

According to CFO Geary Cotton in the PR, the company now has 18.4 million shares outstanding, not including outstanding options and warrants, and has only $2 million of convertible debt remaining.

All of this conversion activity has had little impact on the CELH share price, as the stock continues to trade for right around three bucks, a level that I believe is where the Celsius 'Get Bash Crew' likes the stock to trade, judging by the more chipper tone of the bashers of late - although these guys are still working overtime and through the night to ensure that any prospective new CELH buyers are greeted with only the pessimistic view of Celsius Holdings and its stock.

With all the recent debt conversion (some of it for over ten bucks per share) and with Pentwater Capital possibly continuing to accumulate shares, an intriguing storyline continues to develop for the company that boasts the world's first calorie burning beverage, and with all the time being spent on the message boards by a few individuals, it's safe to assume that there's a lot of money at play to make it worth that much time on a computer and out of the sunshine.

In fact, it's also worth noting that there's been an unauthorized impersonation of yours truly on the Yahoo! message boards, going by the profile ID of vfc_stockhouse. However, the clever impersonator can quickly be outed as he or she does not spell my name correctly in his or her posts.

While I'm flattered that someone has enough time on their hand to want to be me, let me assure you that there is only one VFC, and I do a pretty good job at being me - if I do say so myself.

Back to the subject at hand - Celsius Holdings.

Significant revenue growth is being realized, distribution is growing, as is awareness, and for three dollars a share an investor could buy into a company that is primed to make a big splash in the healthy beverage market at a time when all consumer trends are pointing towards health consciousness.

CEO Steve Haley has predicted that the realized revenue growth of 2009's fourth quarter would continue well into 2010 - and in my opinion, it's worth tuning in to see if he's right, although each investor should conduct his or her own DD and come to their own conclusions.

Celsius is not out of the water just yet; it'll take a few more quarters of significant growth to cement this company as a big player in the beverage industry, in my opinion, but 2010 could be the year that we find out just how big a player Celsius can be.

Disclosure: VFC is long CELH.

BIEL: BioElectronics Announces Strong Sales for Allay Patch in Latin America

BioElectronics Corp announced on Tuesday that the company has launched the anticipated Direct Response Television (DRTV) marketing program for the Allay patch in Latin America. According to the press release, the full commercial launch comes on the heels of a very successful test phase that drew "significant interest" from Latin American women.

The PR also stated that in the coming weeks a "major expansion" is set to take place, including a push into additional markets such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. It's yet to be seen if Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will commandeer the Allay Patch and claim it as a product of the State.

The expansion will also include a roll-out of ActiPatch in the same Latin American markets where Allay is already gaining a foothold.

While the PR did not mention any specific sales numbers, the expansion and growth in the Central and South American markets is an encouraging milestone for BioElectronics as the company can realize a revenue stream while dealing with the FDA over-the-counter clearances in the United States.

While still trading for just a few pennies, BIEL continues to be an intriguing buy, in opinion, because this company could quickly turn into a great growth story as as developments unfold in the coming months and into 2011.

In his recent audio interview, CEO Andrew Whelan noted that BioElectronics was on the verge of becoming a "very significant company".

It'll only be a matter of time before we find out if he was right or not, but recent progress by the company continues to be encouraging.

I'm still buying at the three cent level.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Readers Respond: BDSI, MNKD, GNBT

BDSI: From Alejandro regarding BioDelivery Sciences:

Hi VFC
What do you think about BDSI, I like the way it is rising, but what do you think about the volume is trading, I think we still didn´t see the big jump because I am not sure that the big boys are playing right now, I would like to know what are your thoughts about it.
I´m a convinced holder of BDSI.
Thank you.


VFC's Take: Hi Alejandro, I'm still a believer in BDSI and I think that this company has a great future, as I most recently explained HERE.

It's my opinion that stocks like BDSI (DDSS is another recent example) are getting driven down after positive approval news from the FDA to let the big boys load up when the stock is not so speculative anymore. It makes perfect sense because the risk is greatly reduced when it becomes clear that revenue growth is all but a sure thing.

In fact, I won't complain about that strategy because it benefits the small investor just as much as the big boys, although I think it's evident by the message board bashing that a few of those big boys get perturbed when you play their games instead of selling them your shares in state of panic, disarray and impatience.

I've actually got BDSI tucked away in my IRA so I may have a longer outlook than others, but when the stock moves - it could move quick, and that move could come this year if sales results for Onsolis look promising.

Sometimes the relatively long waits can get boring, but it's been my experience that patience pays off a lot better than impatience - and I'm confident that BDSI is going to pay off.

The most immediate influence on price should be the initial Onsolis sales results, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

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An anonymous comment regarding MNKD and GNBT:

News on Mannkind (MNKD)today: Complete Response Letter. On the one hand it would be good for Generex if MNKD opened the market, on the other hand the news limits MNKD's first to market advantage. Also, if GNBT is viewed as the superior product and delivery system, it further strengthens GNBT's competitive advantage because of lung concerns with MNKD. What do you think GNBT will be near term if they are successful in getting a partner for the vacine part of the business?

VFC's Take: First some background info on Mannkind for those that might have missed it:

Shares of Mannkind dove to under seven dollars at one point on Monday after it was announced that the FDA had asked for additional information regarding the comapany's inhaled insulin product, Afrezza. After rebounded slightly towards the end of the day, MNKD closed at $7.89. There were no safety concerns cited by the FDA, according to publicly released information, but the administration is mainly interested in the commercial version of the MedTone inhaler that is used to deliver insulin.

Mannkind's Afrezza is inhaled via the MedTone inhaler and then absorbed into the system through the lungs. While the FDA has cited no safety concerns regarding absorption through the lungs, there has been some concern expressed by others in the medical field whom believe that the lungs could face long term damage as a result of the inhaled insulin.

Generex (GNBT) is currently testing Oral-Lyn, another oral insulin product, although with Oral-Lyn the insulin is absorbed through the inner lining of the cheek.

Shares of GNBT remained steady on Monday as MNKD plummeted, and I think that the bad news for Mannkind can, in turn, be very good news for Generex. Because it is not quite clear how long the FDA development will set Mannkind back, the FDA delay gives Generex some time to play catch up. This could become a very valuable turn of events for Generex, assuming that the product meets its Phase III endpoints and passes muster with the FDA.

Since the delay is mainly a result of the commercial version of the MedTone inhaler and not a concern with the insulin delivery, the Mannkind setback should be a non-factor for concern that the same thing could happen with Generex, and I'm guessing that the market feels the same since the GNBT stock held its ground on Monday.

As for the direction of the GNBT stock, I think that it will react in similar fashion to SIRI - when its ready to move up to a dollar, it's going to happen pretty quickly. Any further rises in price will be the result of a Phase III announcement, in my opinion.

I still like shares of GNBT in the sixty cent range.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT, no position MNKD.

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Briefs: VNDA, TTNP, CVM

VNDA: Shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals have been on the move of late after Hapoalim Securities initiated coverage of the company with a 'BUY' rating and issued a price target of $23. Hapoalin also suggested that the company could be targeted for acquisition.

Additionally, Vanda recently announced that the company has received a notice of allowance from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office for a long acting injectible formulation of the currently marketed oral version of the schizophrenia drug Fanapt.

Fanapt is currently marketed by pharmaceutical powerhouse Novartis through a licensing agreement signed last year, and in a multi-billion dollar anti-psychotic market, sales of the product could ramp up fairly quickly. That would make Hapoalim's price target very reachable in due time.

I personally believe that Novartis will swallow up both Vanda and Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP.pk), but if not, then a move to plus-$15 should be in the works for the short to mid term, although it will be sales numbers that dictate how quick that happens.

VNDA continues to be a nice growth story after becoming one of the best rebound plays of 2009 and the possibilities of a Novartis buyout adds to the intrigue of the VNDA stock.

The volatility probably isn't over just yet, so it may be worth picking up a few shares on any dips in price.

Disclosure: No position.

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TTNP.pk: I like Titan Pharmaceuticals once again as a buy for below for two dollars. Like Vanda, I believe that the company could be a takeover target by Novartis because Titan will receive royalties of between eight and ten percent of net Fanapt sales. That's a pretty decent payday, in my opinion, for a small company that also has Propuphine and the ProNeura technology in the pipeline.

Titan also received a grant from the NIH last year that will go towards funding the latest Probuphine Phase III trial.

If Titan is not bought out sooner rather than later, I'd expect a move off the pink sheets fairly quickly as the royalty money starts rolling in and the ProNeura pipeline advances.

Titan was a great 'sell at various points on the way up story' during its rise from a penny last year, but it might be worth picking up a few more shares for under two dollars because it's my opinion that this drop will be a temporary one.

For a company that was all but dead about a year ago, Titan sure looks to be in pretty good shape.

2010 could turn into a milestone year for this company.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.




CVM: In recent news, Cel Sci announced that the company had received a $125,000 payment from Byron Biopharma. Byron owns the rights to market Multikine in South Africa while Cel Sci has additional agreements with Teva Pharmaceuticals of Israel and Orient Europharma of Taiwan to market the product in other countries around the globe.

The bad news for the company so far in 2010 (which just happens to be good news for humanity) is that the Swine Flu hype died down too quickly for the company to fully capitalize on its potential LEAPS treatment for H1N1; that killed any upwards momentum that the stock was building (or had built), but Multikine still remains a potential blockbuster immunotherapeutic treatment for head and neck cancer and the future of this company still looks bright, in my opinion.

Whether averaging down or still averaging up, I think that a buy of CVM at these levels will pay off over the mid to long term, although the Multikine trial is not expected to begin until the summer so a lull in action should be expected, barring any news on another front.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.


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Sunday, March 14, 2010

Readers Respond: MCLN

MCLN.ob: From Shep regarding MedClean Technologies:

A couple days ago MCLN released its quarterly statement, and I have to say I'm confused. Maybe you can help me out Vinnie. They are boasting "record sales" which is good. However they lost money overall for the year. Most alarming for me was a letter from the accounting firm that conducted their audit in which they state "reservations whether MCLN can remain a going concern". This sounds rather bleak to me. Yet the iHub message board abounds with upbeat and positive reactions to the report (I know internet/message boards to be taken with a grain of salt). I'm admittedly not much of a business whiz and a spreadsheet may as well be a bedsheet as far as I'm concerned so I'm wondering what's your take on the latest?

Shep Continued:

EDIT: Ok...not sure if this was actually their quarterly statement. It's the "Securities Registration Statement" "Preliminary Prospectus". Here's a link: http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1267821275&article=41855781&symbol=NB%5EMCLN


VFC's Take: I think the most important thing to remember regarding MedClean is that despite all the positive press that the company has received of late, it's still a speculative company; nothing is a sure thing no matter how bright the future looks in the eyes of speculative investors.

That said, MedClean is one of those speculative companies that looks like it's going in the right direction and increasing revenues along the way. That's the kind of speculative play that I like, especially when the stock is still trading for a penny or two.

The going concerns are normal and necessary for speculative companies, and regarding those, I like to remind myself that by the time a company's going concern does not look so bleak, you won't be able to buy the stock for a couple of pennies.

The most significant gains are made at the beginning of a run, and it's my own personal strategy that I'll buy on the cheap and wait - as long as I'm in on the run when it starts. I'm a patient guy, I don't mind waiting.

I'm still going to be adding shares of MCLN for the current prices because I think that the company is heading towards some nice revenue growth; it's worth keeping an eye on the next couple of quarters to see if the revenue growth is actually realized.

All just my opinion, each investor should do his or her own DD and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long MCLN.

Covestor Investment Management

Readers Respond: Parent/Subsidiary Companies, BMSN, ENTB, BVTI, ABPIQ

Still catching up on emails/comments.

A comment from Mark regarding parent-subsidiary companies:

Vinny,

How do you determine which company to buy when you are dealing with subsidiaries? I owned BVTI (took profits at .70 and now am out in the cold), so wonder about ABPIQ at a cheaper PPS. I also own BMSN (just got in a .08), but what about ENTB and why would BMSN have a lower PPS when they are the parent company?

Thanks,

Mark


VFC's Take: When looking at parent/subsidiary companies, I use the same methods of deciding which one to buy as I do for any other stock; what do I consider the future potential to be based on my DD?

In the case of BVTI, when I first bought in, I simply liked the value of the BVTI stock over that of the parent company, Accentia Bipharmaceuticals (ABPIQ.pk). I don't blame you for taking profits at seventy cents, especially if you bought in at or near the low, and I think that if BVTI trickles back down towards a dollar, it might become a decent buy again for the mid to long term. If BiovaxID is proved to be an effective cancer immunotherapy treatment, then a pretty significant run could be in store.

It's my opinion that the company is stalling until more mid-to-long term results of treatment becomes known.

As for ENTB and BMSN, this could simply be a case of Entest being more attractive to less speculative investors because it trades for over a dollar; many investors don't like the 'penny' plays like BMSN for around ten cents.

Also, many investors are drawn to a stock based on news and press releases - although BioMatrix Scientifics is the parent company, Entest gets most of the credit for being the primary company in a press release.

There are a bundle of factors and explanations, I think it's upon each investor to figure out their own strategies for buying into a parent or subsidiary company. I do believe it's a popular strategy for investors to buy into both the parent and subsidiary - not a bad way to go, in my opinion.

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Readers Respond: BIEL

A lot of chatter going on with BIEL lately:

An anonymous comment regarding a previous post about BIEL:

VFC, I've been saying the same thing for a few months now regarding possible political involvement in the FDA decision regarding BIEL. BIEL's product is 100% safe and appears to be effective. In fact, actipatch emits only a fraction of radiation that what cell phones emit. You're correct about the DNDN fiasco which was fueled by greed, power and corruption. BIEL, so far, is no where near that level, yet. The drug pain relieving industry is a multi-billion dollar a year enity. The question is will the big boys standby while a penny stock threatens to possibly take a large chunk of their profits? We are speaking of a very powerful group that has the ability to derail BIEL for an indefinite period of time.

BIEL's foreign endeavors, in my opinion, will not sustain BIEL without an FDA approval. The approval would add product credibility to the foreign markets, as well as allowing BIEL to market the product here in the U.S. I'm sure BIEL is doing the best then can to overcome some hurdles, but if politics are involved fueled by greed, I'm afraid a small company like BIEL is way over matched. BTW, Ameritrade still haven't lifted the buy restriction, Scottstrade has.


VFC's Take: First of all, thanks for the update regarding the buying restrictions; Ameritrade hasn't lifted yet while Scottrade has. Good info.

I completely agree with the fact that BioElectronics could be way over matched when dealing with the FDA and big pharma. I'm of the opinion that if ActiPatch and Allay were a Johnson & Johnson product, they would well be available on the OTC market in the United States already. It's also pretty clear that the company may be a bit over matched in terms of the big boys playing the stock like Charlie Daniels plays the fiddle.

It's a shame that the forces and powers of big money can so easily dictate the survivability of a small, up-and-coming company - especially in the country that supposedly champions the little guy and entrepreneurship.

I do believe that the BioElectronics products and the associated technology is too good to ignore and will ultimately receive the necessary FDA clearances, it'll just take a bit longer to get there because of the company's insignificant status in the big picture.

Even the audits took longer than expected because of BIEL's 'little guy status', according to previous comments by the CEO.

That said, BioElectronics is heading in the right direction.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



An anonymous comment regarding a reader's opinion of BioElectronics CEO Andrew Whelan:

VFC, I am disappointed with you that you allow name calling [edited blank] by Mark speaking about BIEL on your blog. Keep the bar high with a professional blog. When people set a low bar they hit it every time!

VFC's Take: Noted, and I've edited the name-calling reference out of both posts. We're not here to offend anyone personally and I know that some are more sensitive to the term than others.

Thanks for the feedback.

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Another anonymous comment regarding the progress of BioElectronics:

Biel's ROW markets are expanding rapidly. They are currently selling in Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Korea, Singapore, Japan, China, Mexico, Germany, Kuwait, Singapore, Malaysia, Turkey, Columbia, the United Kingdom, Italy & Australia. The South American marketing will start soon. BioElectronics will be a very profitable company in 2010 with or without FDA approval. The 2009 audit through Q3 shows 524k in gross profit on 715k in sales. How many companies have a 73% gross margin? The Actipatch is available in the USA through Amazon.

VFC's Take: Thanks for the information/reminder. I think that most of us agree that BIEL is on the right track, growing, and on the brink of becoming the "very significant company" that CEO Whelan noted in his recent interview.

That said, I do believe that an FDA approval in the United States is necessary to cement BioElectronics as a big player in the pain & swelling market. There are those investors out there that aren't interesting in ROW and see a US FDA approval as the golden nugget for a company to make it big time.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.




Saturday, March 13, 2010

Readers Respond: NEPH, BIEL, SPNG

NEPH.ob: A comment from Playtrader regarding Nephros Inc.:

Any love for NEPH. Approval could be this week. 20 million float. This was projected last year to go to $6-7 pps. Post approval. The long delay has forced people to pull out.

VFC's Take: It has been a couple of months since I last mentioned this stock, but I'm definitely still a fan of Nephros as a mid to long term play, especially while the stock was trading for below one dollar.

Those who have been patient and willing to add for below a dollar should be handsomely rewarded as developments for this company unfold, including the possible near-term FDA 501k approval of the company's End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Products.

Also of note, the company announced a Canadian distribution Agreement last month with Bellco Health Care Inc for the Nephros OLpurTM MD 220 filter, an on-line hemodiafiltration (HDF) therapy.

If NEPH slips back below the eighty cent mark or so I'll continue to add shares from time to time, but I'm a fan of this company and stock as a long term play based on the water-filtration technology.

Disclosure: VFC is long NEPH.






BIEL.pk: A comment from Mark regarding BioElectronics Corp:

I like the product but Andy seems like a [edited blank](I don't know how to spell that). I know he has a lot of stuff on his plate, but come on. He has experience in finance so he has to know what to expect of a CEO. All of his answers were really general. This could be really big, they placed a large order, we think the Latin American market is showing really positive potential. I do believe this product will be big as it just so happened to be timed perfectly against Tylenol but man I just want some hard numbers.

VFC's Take: Nice, appreciate the candidness. I agree that BioElectronics has a great product that is coming to market at an opportune time, as the health risks of Tylenol and Ibuprofen come to light. I also agree that CEO Andrew Whelan has, at times, looked to not be completely on the ball as far as dealing with investors.

On that note, however, I think that he's getting better. The press releases are keeping investors more informed than before and his interviews - while spoken a bit in generalities as you mention - are a lot better than hearing nothing, because there is tone of voice and other factors that the interviews allow us to consider.

I'll take an interview where Whelan speaks in generalities over Joel Noel passing information on a Yahoo! message board any day. And speaking of Noel, I also think that he's doing a much better job of passing information since he started up his website/blog. That's a lot more professional than the message boards.

Another factor that I've considered, is that the questionable methods of passing information (or lack of it) by both Noel and Whelan has contributed to the sub-three cent share price that is allowing us to pick up shares for what I consider to be 'on the cheap'.

All that said, BioElectronics is moving in the right direction with the audits, international progress and FDA applications and I think that we're sitting on a winner right now, but as I mentioned before, the company isn't out of the woods just yet.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



SPNG.pk: A comment from Alejandro regarding SpongeTech Delivery Systems, Inc.:

Hi VFC
What about SPNG, I´m not loading up anymore, but I have a hunch that it will spike at any moment as a speculative move about the release of the expected auditors report, I´m selling about all my position if it reach 0.15, a number that I think is very possible, if the numbers are not so disappointing... what do you think?

Best regards,
Alejandro

VFC's Take: I'm also not loading up on SPNG anymore, and I even flipped a few shares when the stock reached five cents not too long ago - just in case.

If/when the audited financial reports are released, I think that we'll be in for a nice spike in price in which to sell. I'd be happy with a dime, but I do think that your exit strategy of fifteen cents is reasonable (in my opinion); but again, it all depends on what we see from the financials.

SpongTech had quite a few members of that stocks 'get bash crew', including the New York Post and curiously enough an ESPN reporter, so the outcome of this company interests me as much for the soap opera story aspect as it does for the investing aspect.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNG.

Readers Respond: GCKO, BIEL

An email from Ash regarding GeckoSystems International Corporation and BioElectronics:

VFC, hi! Back in February you spoke about GCKO (GeckoSystems International). You made it very clear that before any deals are finalized we can only speculate what impact the deal will have on the stock, however before consider buying in, I'd like to know if GCKO still finds favor in your eyes for long term. I am looking for something I can invest and let it sit for 3-6 months similar to BIEL where I am expecting it to surge only by years end or next year (unless they lift the restrictions earlier) and meanwhile let it sit or accumulate more.

Speaking about BIEL, what do you mean by " no means is BioElectronics in the clear - hurdles still remain" - is it because the O/S is very high, pending FDA approval or because they are not completely transparent. Many companies who do get approved by the FDA don't rocket either because they can't market it or small market to begin with. Isn't it better that BIEL starts selling first overseas and then we tackle the FDA. Can you suggest any other ticker similar to BIEL,if any.

Thank you again,ash






VFC's Take: Ash, Thanks for the email and the comments.

GCKO.pk: I still do have a position in GCKO, and I'll add a few shares here and there because I see some speculative potential in the technology and the product being worked by GeckoSystems, notably the elder-care robot and the associated software.

The company has issued a few press releases of late regarding Japanese interest in their product, not surprising knowing the Japanese love for gadgets and electronics, and GeckoSystems has also commented recently on a potential licensing agreement with an unnamed company.

However, while I still like the long term potential of the company if the elder-care robot is for real and has a market, I'm not yet willing to put a time frame on when I believe that significant developments will take off for the company and the stock.

I do believe that any solid talk on a licensing agreement, merger or commercial launch of the robot could lead to a nice short term double or triple in share price - barring any massive dilution.

Three to six months may be a little early to expect huge gains, but if you're willing to wait, I don't see a problem with holding some GCKO for the long term to see how things play out.

Disclosure: VFC is long GCKO.

LinkShare_300x250

BIEL.pk: I'll clarify what I meant with my "by no means is BioElectronics in the clear - hurdles still remain" comment from my previous post on BIEL.

I agree that BioElectronics is making a good move by gaining a foothold in the international market while dealing with the current FDA approval process. It's quite possible that the company could be raking in some significant revenue before the ActiPatch and Allay ever receive over-the-counter approval in the United States.

What I specifically meant by the company not being in the clear just yet is that that the FDA is a finicky bunch and who knows what that organizations final decisions will be; it's no secret that the FDA is influenced greatly by the big pharma lobby and sometimes that influence will counter the potential of a big product - look at all the conflicts of interest in the Dendreon fiasco. It's not a done deal with the FDA until it's a done deal, and until it's a done deal, BIEL is still going to be considered a speculative play, in my opinion.

Another factor is that I don't think the manipulation is over for the BIEL stock. I don't know for sure whether or not all of the buying restrictions have been lifted and who knows if the team that was determined to drive the price down as low as it could go is finished. Until there is some solid revenue growth demonstrated by BioElectronics, or until there's some finalization with the over-the-counter approval, I think that the stock will be subject to manipulation.

On a side note, there are those that claim that the "manipulation" that I and others talk of is a myth or a conspiracy theory. To that I say it's not much of a 'theory' when Jim Cramer, the grand-daddy of stock manipulation, is all over the web describing how the games are played.

Additionally, it's funny how the 'get bash' crews always show up on the message boards in full force hours before news is released. Coincidence? I think not.

I don't think that transparency is as much an issue today as it was a few months ago because of the audits that are nearing completion and I don't believe that it will take too long for BioElectronics to put their products on the OTC market once the FDA approves.

I still love BIEL as a buy for three cents as a mid to long term play.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Monday, March 8, 2010

BIEL: CEO Andy Whelan's Interview On SmallCapVoice, Part I

Shares of BioElectronics enjoyed a forty percent jump in price at one point on Monday before closing the day nearly thirty percent to the upside in anticipation of the release of an interview on SmallCapVoice.com with CEO Andy Whelan. The second part of the interview will be released this coming Thursday.

In part one, the CEO touched on some very significant subjects regarding the company and while CEOs are always supposed to sound optimistic, Mr. Whelan made it clear that big things are on the horizon for BioElectronics; even going so far as to state that the company is on the verge of becoming a "very significant" one.

Of immediate interest, Mr. Whelan was confident that BIEL would become a fully reporting company in a matter of weeks when the 2009 audit is complete, a significant stepping stone for the company to move to the OTCBB - although he didn't rule out the possibility of an eventual move to the big boards, but one thing at a time.

Nothing new was released regarding the status of the 510k and re-classification issues with the FDA - it's a waiting game as the FDA becomes "educated" on the products - but the CEO was extremely confident that over the short to mid term, both the ActiPatch and Allay products would be approved for OTC in the United States.

Maybe more significant to Monday's price action is the fact that many of the brokers that were not allowing investors to purchase shares of BIEL are now starting to allow the transactions. Mr. Whalen mentioned Schwab, but I know that there were others not allowing BIEL purchase orders.

The relaxing of the restrictions is sure to help the BIEL stock price - there were quite a few investors who were standing on the sidelines waiting to get (back) in or add to their positions.

Let's see what Thursday's Part II brings, but Part I of the Whelan interview was highly encouraging and confirms what many investors in BIEL have believed for some time - that the company could be on the verge of making a big impact in the global pain & swelling market.

By no means is BioElectronics in the clear - hurdles still remain, but those able to buy in at the three cent level will reap significant rewards down the road, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Briefs: BIEL, CELH, MSBT

BIEL.pk: Shares of BioElectronics Corp rebounded by 10% on Friday after the company's stock symbol on the pink sheets began trading with the 'Current Information' tag, vice the 'limited information' label that the symbol had been carrying for some time.

Additional attention will be on the stock during Monday's trading session as it's expected that Joe Noel will release Part I of an audio interview with BioElectronics CEO Andrew Whelan. According to Joe Noel, Mr. Whelan will provide a business update and answer various questions that have been posed by investors over the past few weeks.

It's tough to say whether or not the games are over for the BIEL stock, but still being able to buy shares of this company for under three cents still looks like a great deal to me; and the fact that the stock now trades with the 'current information' label makes the whole investment look that much more appetizing, in my opinion.

It's unknown whether all of the buying restrictions have been lifted or not, but maybe those that are using the different brokers that haven't allowed buying over the past few months can provide us with an update.

I still love a BIEL buy for under three cents as the international launches of ActiPatch and Allay get underway as we await news on and FDA-cleared OTC approval for the products in the United States.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



CELH: The CEO of Celsius Holdings, Steve Haley, hosted a conference call last Thursday in which he provided investors with an update on business operations and some guidance for the future.

The company announced impressive fourth quarter revenue growth weeks ago, so this call was primarily an opportunity to inform investors what's in store for the short to mid term future of the company.

Most significantly, in my opinion, is the distribution growth referenced by Mr. Haley that is taking place - or due to take place - during first and second quarters of 2010.

After a trial run in select Costco locations, a roll-out of the product into all Costco stores is underway as is a move into Sam's Club.

Haley also announced a move into Publix in the southeastern portion of the United States, as well as a move into the military outlet via AAFES - a potentially lucrative move as the Army and Air Force Exchange Service has approved both the beverage and on-the-go powdered products.

Celsius is still a growing company, and the distribution announced on Thursday is huge, in my opinion, and signals that the significant revenue growth realized in the fourth quarter of 2009 could continue deep into 2010.

As for the short term price movement of the stock, I still believe that the low-volumed CELH stock will trade exactly how Pentwater Capital wants it to trade for the time being, but as the stock moves towards three bucks it's awfully tough to resist adding a few more shares.

Of note, the Celsius 'get bash' crew has been working overtime the past week, so it's obvious that these guys still want the stock to trade lower, in my opinion.

I like what I'm seeing with Celsius - the increase in advertising expenses is being used to also increase the distribution network and awareness is consequently growing at a time when the general population is trending towards healthier food alternatives.

It's also worth noting that New York politicians are still pushing forward with a tax on sugary beverages, a move that could help Celsius in that state.

Disclosure: VFC is long CELH.



MSBT.ob: MedaSorb announced in mid-February that the company had reached the mid-point stage of the European Sepsis trial by enrolling the 50th patient, out of the expected 100 needed to complete the trial.

Aside from a pre-market dip to eleven cents last week (on miniscule volume), the stock remains stuck in the high teens, although I continue to expect a move higher later in the year in anticipation of trial results.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

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