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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

VFC's Latest Take on Celsius Holdings (CELH)

To those that read VFC's Stock House, sorry about posting so infrequently lately - haven't had the free time that I'm used to having.

Here's a quick take Celsius Holdings:

CELH: When I last posted about Celsius Holdings, the company was still trading under the ticker CSUH on the OTCBB market and investors were anticipating some dramatic price action after the implementation of an expected secondary offering that was to take place in conjunction with a move to the NasdaqCM.

Today, Celsius Holdings trades on the NasdaqCM for roughly $3.50/share - not as much as the drastic price drop as many were expecting, but there was also no news released to cause a spike in price, as many others would have liked to have seen.

It's also become known that the hedge fund Pentwater Capital is now in possession of at least 800,000 shares of the CELH stock, according to a recent SEC filing, and this, in my opinion, is a telling sign.

For the past few months the Celsius stock and the small Celsius shareholders have been the victime of an incessant barrage of 'bashing attacks' - to the point where some have dedicated thousands of hours of their lives to ensure that no piece of news released by the company would be perceived positively by anyone, let alone the small investor. Common sense would indicate that only those with a whole lot of money at stake (one way or the other) would dedicate so much of their time to one particular stock; if you've got nothing vested, there's no reason to bash.

It's also my opinion that there's some big money out there that is quite disappointed that the CELH stock did not sink any further - despite all the efforts by the 'get bash crew' - than it did after the secondary; therefor, it's quite possible that the onslaught on the company will continue until either the stock price reaches their 'buy point' or it becomes time to run the stock.

With Pentwater in control of so many shares, these guys can play the low-volumed CELH stock like Tiger plays Perkins waitresses and porn stars, so be prepared for some volatility - in my opinion - both up and down.

All said and done, the future of the company still lies in the consumer buying the product, it's as simple as that. If the Celsius product doesn't catch on like many of us have predicted, then the company won't make it; but if the product does catch on as the global trend shifts towards healthier foods and beverages, then we can still be sitting on a future gold mine.

While I expect some short term volatility with this stock, I'm still in for the long term, and don't be surprised if the 'get bash crew' works a little overtime for the short term - if that's possible.

As always, these are just my opinions and each investor should conduct his or her own DD and come to his or her own conclusions based on that DD.

Thanks for reading.

Disclosure: VFC is long CELH.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Readers Respond: CVM

For those that have emailed and commented over the past week, I apologize for being out of touch. Record snowfall hit the East Coast and once clan VFC dug out of the mess, it was time to hit the road for while.

Then the Olympic Games started and I love the Olympics.

For those new to this blog, this is a hobby, not a day job, so there's times when time and circumstance will prevent me from posting every day. I appreciate the continued interest, readership and input (aside from a few agenda-based riff-raff) and on that note, let's roll back into the game:






CVM: A few comments regarding Cel Sci Corp over the past week or so:

From Kevin:

Hey VFC, just curious as to what you think about Adam F. and his negative articles on CVM, Byron Biopharma, and Multikine. Have you read them and what is your opinion on what he has to say?

VFC's Take: In regards to Adam Feuerstein and his opinion-based biotech blog, I take what he says with a grain of salt for a few reasons.

It's easy to be negative - First and foremost, the guy goes negative on everything. In the biotech sector where more companies and drugs fail than succeed, going negative on each and every one is taking the easy way out, in my opinion. It's much more difficult to pick winners in the sector than it is to pick losers, and AF does not take the time to look for promising stories; he sticks to attacking everything and everyone - even companies that are producing potentially life saving products. I think that he feels that his pessimism will draw more attention to his biotech blog, which leads me into my next point;

Attracting Clicks - The main goal of Adam's biotech blog, in my opinion, is to attract viewership and 'clicks' to TheStreet.com site in order to generate as much advertising income for the publicly traded company that he works for. It's apparent that he takes this goal to heart because you normally have to click seven pages to get through one article. It's also apparent that he feels being negative is the way to attract more 'clicks' because people will go to defend what they feel is a good stock - so he's getting the readers that agree with him, and those that don't, all to click on his blog entries. That's good for business, but has little to do with unbiased insight.

Timing - AF often times his posts in a way that inclines me to believe that he is working for others - maybe short traders - because he seems to go negative on stocks after big runs (like CVM). Again, it's a whole lot easier to say that a stock is going to drop from two bucks than it is to find that stock at twenty cents and predict a jump based on pending news. Since he times many of his blog postings to hit the wires after a spike or increase in short interest of a stock, I can't help but wonder which of his buddies he's hooking up - he has admitted to having connections to fund managers after 9/11. All just my opinion, but it raises enough red flags in VFC's House to make me wonder.

Blogging versus reporting - AF has identified himself as a 'journalist' or a 'reporter' at numerous points in his career, but opinion-based blogging is neither. Journalism is reporting the facts, and sometimes AF does that - but more often than not his posts are laced with biases and opinions - all negative. In other words, you know what you're going to get before you even read his posts. It's kind of like Katie Couric asking Sarah Palin which magazines she reads? Is that journalism? Of course not, but it sure does draw a lot of attention.

To be fair, I'm sure that AF brings up some valid and questionable points at times, but his reputation as a possible puppet for the larger puppetmaster grows each and every time he releases a suspect blog post at a questionable time.

If CVM was really that bad of an investment, I would think he would have told us that when the stock was at twenty cents - but he didn't, because writing about CVM when no one cared would not have brought him the attention (and clicks) that he seeks - and at the end of the day, that's what it's all about for Feuerstein and TheStreet.com. It's business - it's a publicly traded company and the concerns of the company and those affiliated in any way with the company (shady or not) come way before the concerns of honest investors and companies who may trying to produce products that could save and/or extend lives.

So Feuerstein doesn't like Multikine? Well whoopdee-doo. There's plenty out there that do. It's up to you, as an investor, to weigh the pros and cons of your own investment in the company.

'Nuff said on Feuerstein. He's got a job to do and he does it well if people are still reading his stuff. But don't think for a second that he or anyone else at TheStreet.com has your best interests at heart. Those guys just see dollar signs, not people, in my opinion.





From Doran:

Dear VCF

thanks for your take on GNVC XOMA and CVM.
CVM even at this low pps level, is still on a strong down trend and for some of us, it was reasonalble to reduce the CVM position. At what price level in your view , would it be attractive to add more shares?
thanks
Doran


VFC's Take: Thanks for the comments. There's nothing wrong with taking some shares on and off the table when you see fit.

When the global Swine Flu hype was in full effect and the Johns Hopkins LEAPS/H1N1 study was commenced, I loved the eighty cent buy range for the stock, but the H1N1 hype disintegrated just as quickly as it materialized and the CVM stock suffered because of that.

Just as quickly as the federal agencies will pat you on the back during a crisis, like it looked like they were doing to a few biotechs during the scare, they'll also disappear when they don't need you anymore. That would mean no more 'fast track', in my opinion.

Without the continued threat of a global H1N1 pandemic, the LEAPS/H1N1 trial remains nothing more than an afterthought, in my opinion. See how quick people were to forget 9/11? It'll be even quicker that people forget that a few pigs gave a whole lot of people the flu. That doesn't bode well for the immediate future of LEAPS, although I'm just speculating here.

Since we all know that the Multikine trial is still months away, there's no saying that the stock won't return to below fifty cents and hang there for a while. If you're a believer in the potential of Multikine and LEAPS over the mid to long term, then I think that fifty cents would be looked at as a great buy, but below thirty cents is my 'load the boat' price.

That's just my own opinion and each investor should come up with his or her own entry and exit strategy.

Since the company is in a stable financial position right now, has completed validation of the Multikine production facility and is months away from commencing the global Phase III trial, I would think that long term investors should be very satisfied with this buying opportunity.

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From Tom:

Hi VFC,

Thanks a lot for your Invaluable advise. They all make sense and I will use them as a guide.
Recently I saw many firms pumping OPMG. All the articles provide extremely rosy pictures and make you feel that it should be bought instantly. None of the articles provide any risks. I saw the price going down after all the articles started showed up and the pps seems to have stabilized now. What’s your thoughts on OPMG and on articles that pump stocks like that. What to look for in these and how to know if they are genuine. Also want to add CVM and how some blogger keeps pounding it. Is it legal or ethically correct? I guess like Bible/ Quran etc any one can interpret any verses to prove their own personnel gains and ignoring ethics.

Tom


VFC's Take: Regarding OPMG, I commented on that stock HERE.

I think that you did the right thing by watching the price action and being sceptical of articles that only see one side of the story - especially when personal opinions are being portrayed as commonly-known facts.

That said, I don't think that all stocks that are pumped are bad stocks to buy - it's just bad if you just find out about it in the middle of a pump.

It's been my own personal guideline that by the time the stock is all over the Yahoo message boards, then it's probably a little too late to get in for the pump, but it could be a good one to keep an eye on for the future - if it falls back into your buy range.

As for ethics in the investing world, you're asking for too much if you're asking for ethics. The great thing about America is that no matter who you are, opportunity is there to create wealth, especially in the market. However, as the meltdown of the markets demonstrated over the past couple of years, those possibilities make a lot of people lose sight of their humanity and start seeing the world in terms of dollars and more dollars; the fact that the manipulative games being played behind the scenes can hurt the greater picture (humanity) means nothing to this group.

Look at the stock message boards and websites - in the world of anonymity, people don't interact, it's phony IDs that attack anyone and anything for their own personal financial gain; let alone the fact that one person's financial gain could be another's distruction.

It's a dog eat dog world out there and you've got to protect yourself with entry and exit strategies that protect your investments.

The old adage of 'if it seems too good to be true, then it probably is' is a good rule of thumb to live by in the market, in my opinion. However, if there's a whole lot of people out there telling you how bad something is, doesn't mean you should run either. These people have agendas and they would not dedicate the hours and hours of message board bashing and stalking if there wasn't going to be a good financial gain in it for themselves.

And I would especially not trust the ones that lurk the boards and insinuate that they have nothing at stake in a stock that they spend 18 hours a day posting about. That's not human nature.

I also question some of the penny stock pumping websites that boast huge percentage gains; they'll send out an alert on Friday evening telling you to buy a stock, but come Monday morning the thing has already either gapped up or ran so quick that there is no way you made the 3000% gain that they said you did on their website.

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From Susan:

Hi
I am wondering if you have any comments as to the reason for the recent severe drop in stock price of CVM. The company does not seem to have any changes (no bad news) and yet the stock price has plummet ted. Do you still have as much faith in the company as you did in your blog of Jan 1st?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Susan


VFC's Take: Above I noted that once the Swine Flu hype dissipated and it became clear that the Multikine trial was months away, it gave the riff-raff some time to play with the stock - and, coincidentally enough, Feuerstein just happened to have a few more napalm attacks at the helm.

You couldn't script it better than that.

I'm still a believer in Multikine and cancer immunotherapy as a whole, and with money in the bank and the Multikine facility complete, I'm still very confident that CVM will eventually rebound.

Covestor Investment Management

From Shep:

Gotta love anonymous tough guys. This site only offers suggestions based on informed opinion (and only as well as one can be informed at that). If you think that CVM wasn't a wise purchase then you've only yourself to blame.

I actually stopped in to comment on CVM too but couldn't let the tough guys comment go unchecked. This one has been falling on lack of anything new, but today it's really down, and I was wondering why. Then I saw that Feuerstein and The Street put out a three part hatchet job on CVM today. It's fairly detailed and if true, troubling. The problem is knowing what's true and what's more Street fluff. Since Feuerstein has admitted he likes bashing because it makes for sexier "journalism", it's hard to make a judgement. I was never heavily invested in CVM and am in fact still in the green. Still I'm wondering if I shouldn't have sold at 1.80 and made a small if tidy profit. Oh well...water under the bridge at this point. Nearly everything is either down or flat right now so we're in a slump. Time to keep our heads down, look for bargains and wait it out.


VFC's Take: Shep was referring to this anonymous post:

Open you fat mouth about CVM.

Very mature, I must say. Ever see the guy at the party that says something stupid, then laughs and spills beer all over himself to the disgust of everyone else at the party? Yeah, that's this guy.

As for Shep's statements, he's right. Feuerstein undercuts his own articles because he has admitted that he strives for negativity. Combine that with some questionable timing of his articles and one could understand why a growing number of people refuse to take anything this guy says seriously; especially when he works for Cramer - a former hedge fund manager that is all over the Internet describing how easy it is to manipulate the markets.

That's not to say that there couldn't be some truth to some of AF's blogging, but his history of obvious bias, admitted negativity and shady timing of articles put a big question mark over the integrity of anything he writes.

As for selling at $1.80, hindsight is 20/20 - I think we can all look back and wish we would have sold just a bit more of any stock during the spikes; it's important to take profits.

That said, when I've invested in a company for the long term, I don't like selling completely out even after nice gains. It's a way that I keep myself grounded. I'm an investor who occasionally trades, not a trader who occasionally invests and in order to stay honest and keep from getting too greedy, I like to maintain a longer term outlook on most of my stocks. That mentality most definitely leaves some money on the table, but the money is better off left on the table if it reminds me of my style. It's too easy to get greedy and each investor needs a plan to keep themselves from getting too greedy.

Otherwise you end up being the guy that has the most money, but no one likes you except your greedy co-horts, who probably don't really like you anyway. That's one problem with society, is when deciding what is more important, people or dollars, too many people are choosing dollars. We've all seen it happen to people that we know.

Definitely take profits - each investor should have a personal percentage number where he or she will realize some profit - whether it be 33%, 50% or 10% - it's good to have a number and stick with it; of course it should also be a part of every exit strategy tailored for each stock in an investor's portfolio, in my opinion.

It's definitely a slump right now - look for the bargains. It's definitely not the slump that we saw at this time last year, but it's not a bad thing when stocks that you own drop - if you still like the stock, then add shares. The thing is, when these speculative stocks move, they move quick. Months of downturn can be undone in one day if the right news hits; that's why I like to hold and add during the downturn, not sell and wait for an upturn. I tried that a few times only to be burned chasing the stocks after they spiked dramtically on big news. I'd rather stare at an 80% paper loss and be there for the 400% gain than sell for a 40% loss, then miss the first part of a run (where the biggest gains are had) and end up making 60%. That's just my style, and I'm a pretty patient guy - unless I'm forced to wait two weeks for the Direct TV guy to come with an HD box for my new TV. Then I need to chill out with some Grey Goose.

An example of how patience in a stock can pay off, look no further than SIRI. Those that believed in the company didn't panic into the drop and added shares for dirt cheap last year. It took a while, but when the big boys wanted to run it, they ran it quick and it's back to trading for over a buck. By the time the analysts issued the positive comments, it was already too late to buy in on the cheap - but you know that they did when they were telling you to sell.

Anyway, as always, this is all just my opinion. Each investor should invest based on his or her own comfort level and tolerance for risk. This is an opinion-based blog geared towards the small investor who most likely doesn't have the time to sit in front of a computer all day and trade - that's why I emphasize having a long term outlook with most stocks, while also appreciating some short term potential.

Good luck, all!

Disclosure: Long CVM.

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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Readers Respond: BIEL, MSBT, Day Trading

BIEL.pk: A comment from Shep regarding my 'Readers Respond' post yesterday in response to a question about BioElectronics:

Another problem with BIEL is several trading firms won't allow 'buy' orders. A few I've heard about are TD Ameritrade, Scottrade and I believe ETrade. The reasons for this have never been made quite clear but the message boards abound with theories. You've got a whole cadre of folks out there who can't buy, but can only sell. That makes for depressed prices until the flood gates are allowed to be opened. I say allowed because I believe there is a bit of chicanery going on behind the scenes. My advice: open an account with Zecco and load up at these prices.

VFC's Take: Thanks for keeping me honest, Shep, I did not mention the problems that many existing investors and potential buyers have had purchasing the BIEL stock over the past couple of months. In fact, I've also heard that members of the USAA investing services are also not able to purchase shares of BIEL through the program.

For those that haven't followed my take on BIEL, I've discussed this issue HERE and HERE over the past month or so.

While this enigma is not solely responsible for the drop in share price, it is definitely a factor as many investors have tried to add shares on this dip and couldn't.

Regardless of the reason behind the madness, the small investor is getting the bum-end of the deal on this one, at least those that are investing with brokerages that won't allow a BIEL buy order right now.

Message board chatter of "The brokerage houses are just protecting their clients" is pure garbage. If that were the case, then they wouldn't let you buy just about any speculative penny stock.

It's my opinion that someone is making out pretty good on this drop, and is being allowed to add at will for below three cents. I'm not privy to the reasons as to why some major brokerages are not allowing BIEL buy orders right now, but I'm not complaining as I've been adding shares myself.

As for Zecco, I agree with Shep. I'm in the process of transferring just about all of my Sharebuilder and E-Trade holdings to my Zecco account because I've never had any problems whatsoever buying and selling any stock with Zecco. They also don't have a 'large order' fee and charge only $4.50 for buy/sell orders - no matter how large or small.

You also get ten free trades a month if you're sporting 25k or more in your account.

It's tough for some investors to see BIEL trade for around three cents for so long, but - in my opinion - it's time to take advantage and buy. If that means opening up a Zecco account, then so be it.

Thanks for the comment, Shep.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

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MSBT.ob: A comment regarding MedaSorb Technologies:

Hi Vinny,

I was wondering if 6 to 7k in msbt would be well to risky at the current price point of 0.17-0.18, thanks for your time

VFC's Take: I cannot honestly or legitimately answer this question for a couple of reasons.

For one, I'm an opinion-based stock guy and I'm not in the business of suggesting how people spend their money.

Also, it's difficult to gauge that investment without knowing how much 6 or 7k is in relation to the total portfolio, let alone in relation to 'free cash' for the investor.

MSBT could pay off very, very well if the European Cytosorb trials for severe sepsis turn out positive, but the stock could also plummet if the trial fails.

It's up to each investor to develop their own entry/exit strategy based on their own DD. Those investment strategies should include the availability of free cash or 'night on the town' money available with which to invest.

Thanks for the interest, but that is a question that I cannot answer.

My only suggestion would be to not jump in all at once - buy in at seventeen cents with maybe half of the total amount that you planned on investing in MSBT and hold the other half on the sidelines in order to average down if the opportunity presents itself.

This way you're not as bad off if the stock drops after your initial buy, but you also won't miss out on a run if one does occur.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.






From Skip regarding a start on day trading:

Hey Vinny,
I am interested in starting to do some day trading, I already have a few positions. However I was going to try and make a jump to day trading and was wanting your opinion on a couple of issues I have.
What would you consider a proper starting bankroll?
How many stocks would you ideally want in your portfolio at a given time?
As far as online brokers I am leaning towards Think or Swim, any comments on them?
Thanks for your efforts..
Skip


VFC's Take: I'll start my response in similar fashion to how I started my last response - I'm not in the business of managing money and it is impossible to ascertain how much an investor should start with without knowing his or her overall financial situation.

VFC's Stock House is stricly an opinion-based stock investing website and nothing more, it's up to each individual investor to devise entry/exit strategies based on their own DD and financial situations.

As for the question of how many stocks you want in your portfolio I would say that you don't want any more stocks in your portfolio than you can manage and stay on top of, in terms of information.

It's my opinion that you should never look in your portfolio and not recognize a stock; put another way, every time you look at a stock in your portfolio you should know exactly why you invested in that stock and have a general idea of where you would buy or sell some (if not all) shares.

I have no experience with think or swim so I cannot offer an educated opinion on their services, but I will say that I use Zecco almost exclusively at this point and I've never had any problem with them.

I still use Sharebuilder for my long term picks (IRA) and for stocks that I need to buy quickly (via Sharebuilder's Express Funding option) but may not have spare cash in the Zecco account at the time.

Good luck with whatever decisions you make, and thanks for the interest in this site.

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Readers Respond: BIEL, MSBT, PWRM, NEXM

From Fransisco regarding BIEL and MSBT:

Hello Vinny,
I had a few questions for you today. First off, regarding Biel you have stated that you would be a buyer at .025. I agree with this buy target and am looking to load up if this price is met. My question is there have been numerous press releases that are positive towards Biel, However the pps almost always drops following these pr's. What do you think is behind the decline of pps & where do you see this trading by years end? I would think it would be between the .65 to .90 range.
Secondly regarding Msbt what do you make of the yo yo action that the pps continues to follow every 4 weeks or so? I have been in Msbt since Oct and I was wondering what you would consider a target price to accumulate more shares at?
As always thank you for your insight!!
Francisco


VFC's Take:

BIEL.pk: Thanks for the comment. I'll just start by clarifying my buy price for BIEL to alleviate any confusion; I've been a buyer of BIEL at various points on the way down from seven cents so .025 is not necessarily my buy price, it's my 'load the boat' price because I may still add shares from time to time if the stock hovers around three cents for too long.

As for the price action of the stock following some recent good news releases, I think that it is a combination of a few factors that are causing the price of the stock to remain deflated.

For starters, many investors thought that the classification issue with the FDA would have been a done deal - or close to it - by now, and when it became apparent that the dealings with the FDA were not as imminent as we thought, those investors bailed out either looking for a quicker trade or because of lack of confidence in management.

Additionally, a delay in the filing of audited financials has also created enough uncertainty to spur a few investors to either move on or reduce their holdings.

Then there is always the manipulation factor; it's common now in the biotech sector to see stocks dive after good news - an action that contradicts common sense, but it also indicates that the bears are in control for the time being and the long term investor is just going to have to play along with the games.

Even while the international commercialization of the BioElectronics products are well underway, the uncertainty regarding financials and the FDA classification plays right into the hands of those entities that would like to see the BIEL stock price trade lower.

There's various reasons why someone would want a stock to drop in price - short selling, wanting in at a lower price, competitive reasons, etc.

But in my opinion, the trend of watching a stock drop after good news is a good thing for the small investor, because it allows us to take advantage of some pretty good deals out there, and I think that BIEL is one of them.

Where BIEL sits at the end of the year depends on quite a few factors, with a resolution of the FDA classification issue at the top of the list because that dictates how readily available ActiPatch and Allay become on the open market in the US. International sales growth will also play a large factor, as well as that sales growth being documented by legitimate auditors.

A move to the OTCBB also wouldn't hurt.

I'm not sure that I'd expect a .65-.90 price target so quickly, but I think that a mid term goal of twenty cents is possible for the mid term if the discussed development turn out positive. Remember, there's still a ton of shares out there.

It'll be easier to estimate how high the stock could go once we start seeing some sales results this year.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



MSBT.ob: MedaSorb Technologies could turn out to be a huge gainer for 2010 if the European Cytosorb results turn out positive; there's a huge possibility, in my opinion, that this stock will trade up to the one dollar level before those results are released, barring the release of any unforseen bad news.

MSBT has been a volatile stock for a few months now, in part from anticipation of news and also in part from some pumping & dumping that went on late last year.

Any move to the upside at this time, however, would be for real in anticipation of the Cytosorb results - in my opinion.

As for a good accumulation point, I think that anywhere in the mid-teens will prove to be a shrewd trade based on the current volatility and the possibility of news.

That said, if Cytosorb fails in the European trial, then this stock goes sub five cents, so I recommend playing the volatility a bit and coming out on house money (at least) before trial results are released.

Of course, that's just my opinion and each investor should do his or her DD>

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

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PWRM.ob: From Geo regarding PWRM:

Hello Vinny,
I was wondering if there was any new news out on PWRM?
Thanks for your time.
Geo.


VFC's Take: I haven't seen anything significant out regarding Power 3 Medical Products of late, but for below a dime, I like PWRM as a speculative buy right now.

As I've stated before, if any of this company's products make it to market then big things could be in store for the PWRM share price.

Disclosure: No position.

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NEXM: A comment regarding NEXM:

Hey VFC, There has been a lot of buzz about NEXM lately and I feel like February is a crucial month for them. They have been given a last chance by NASDAQ to comply with $1 pps to stay listed. They seem to have lots on the table that could potentially put them above that mark. I just wanted to see what your take was. Thanks!

VFC's Take: I'll start off by saying that I am not nor will I be an investor in NexMed, but that is solely because I think that it is bad karma to invest in erectile dysfunction - those are just two words that I don't like hearing and never want to get to know.

That said, the stock itself has already posted some nice gains this year and there is definitely the potential to see the stock continue its run over the mid term, but that depends on the company's ability to gain approval for Vitaros in Canada and/or the European Union, in my opinion. For the short term, I don't see much movement coming.

The continued listing on NASDAQ was encouraging news for shareholders of the company, and the recent concerns raised by the Canadian health officials regarding Vitaros were similar to the ones raised by the US FDA which were ultimately resolved; that bodes well for an eventual approval in Canada and if that event were to coincide with positive FemProx news, then the NEXM run could continue to a buck at that time, in my opinion.

Howevern, in the current market it may be asking a bit much to see NEXM trade for a dollar in the short term, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock trade sideways, or even dip, before running again.

Disclosure: No position.

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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Briefs: CBAI, DDSS, GCKO

CBAI.ob: After running to nearly two cents during the run-up to the grand opening of Cord Blood America's Las Vegas facility last month, the CBAI stock has retreated back down to just below a penny during a period of no news.

On Monday the company announced that the South American deal with Biocells, of which a letter of intent was announced weeks ago, was finalized and Cord Blood will soon begin to process and store cord blood specimens for BioCells.

Matthew Schissler, Cord Blood America's CEO, has stated that 2010 should be a year of significant growth for the company, and enough deals like the Biocells agreement could prove him right.

That said, I'm still not sold on this service - especially in a time of global recession. We know that the rich people will probably jump on this service, so we can count on a bunch of Paris Hilton offspring living forever before long, but the general population probably doesn't have the spare cash nor the inclination to purchase the service just yet.

I'll continue to hold at least half of my position for the long term, however, with a 'just in case' mindset, and I'll also continue to trade some shares in and out if the opportunities present themselves.

A buy for below a penny will pay off, in my opinion, with at least a double. I think that the next run could break the two cent mark.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

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DDSS: Shares of Labopharm, Inc. have dropped below the two dollar mark, and as I've indicated before, this is a great time to add for those with a mid to long term outlook.

There's definitely some term potential also, but the current price action screams manipulation and that means that the stock may not start running again until either the big boys are ready to let it run or until there is enough demand to offset the will of those that want the stock to trade lower.

The good news is out, OLEPTRO has been approved, so it's only a matter of time before a partner is announced and commercialization commences.

The longer the stock remains deflated over the short to mid term, the better it is for the long term investor who can only afford to throw in a few bucks at a time, because once OLEPTRO starts selling (at the latest), then the stock should start trading to its potential.

A nice mid to long term growth pick, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long DDSS.

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GCKO.pk: GeckoSystems International issued a press release on Monday that bucked the trend of keeping us updated on Grandma and actually discussed current business developments.

According to the PR, GeckSystems is in talks with a publicly traded US Robotics company and the two entities are working out a licensing deal that GeckoSystems CEO Martin Spencer claims would lead to an "extraordinary profitable culmination", if realized.

In my opinion, the unnamed second party is likely iRobot, a perfect match, in my opinion, as I indicated earlier this year.

Already in advanced stages of home trials, Gecko's health care robot - the CareBot - could be mass produced later this year under the right partnership terms.

This is the kind of news that will bring interest to the company and the stock, in my opinion, and no offense to Grandma, but this developing story holds more weight with investors than the previous PRs issued regarding Grandma's hearing loss.

Talks-in-progress are just that - talk - and until a deal is finalized, investors can only speculate as to how much the deal could potentially impact the GCKO stock. However, if a deal is finalized sometime soon then the next run could bring GCKO into the low teens, in my opinion.

Definitely a story to watch.

Disclosure: VFC is long GCKO.

FTPress.com (Pearson Education)

Briefs: BIEL, CSUH, KERX

BIEL.pk: As BioElectronics continues to wait for news from the US FDA regarding the classification of ActiPatch and Alley, the international front is moving forward as expected.

On Monday the company announced an expansion of distributorship into Turkey where the company has partnered with SAY-GIN, who will launch a direct response television campaign marketing both the ActiPatch and Allay products.

SAY-GIN must be highly confident that the product will sell very well in Turkey, as the company has already committed to orders totaling more than $1 million for 2010, according to Monday's press release.

The BIEL stock still trades for under three cents, a level where I consider it a great buy.

US FDA news on classification would be great, but investors are looking for audited financial to be announced in the short term which could provide a nice boost to the share price; in the meantime the international expansion should come as encouraging news for investors who have held, and added, through the recent drop in price.

I still consider BIEL a great pickup at these prices as the product gains a foothold in the anti-pain and anti-swelling market at a time when Tylenol and Ibuprofen are coming under fire for their health risks.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



CSUH.ob: After announcing recent moves into Rite Aid drug stores and Winn Dixie Supermarkets, Celsius Holdings announced on Monday a move into Walgreens, the largest drug store chain in the United States.

Walgreens has over 7,100 locations in the US and Puerto Rico and will offer both Green Tea flavors (Peach/Mango and Raspberry/Acai) to consumers.

Rite Aid and Walgreens are each very significant distribution announcements, in my opinion, and come at a time when product awareness is growing significantly as a result of a nationwide advertising campaign.

2010 is primed to be a year of significant growth for the company and its calorie-burning beverage products.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



KERX: Shares of Keryx Biopharmaceuticals closed Monday for under $2.30, a great place to pick up a few shares, in my opinion.

Shares traded on a modest downturn after it became known that a published statement regarding a pending Phase III study for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer was erroneous.

That said, the potential of Perifosine and Zenerex is real and Phase III studies of each are likely to commence later this year.

Purchasing some shares of KERX at these levels will pay off in the short term, in my opinion, but it's also a nice mid to long term play that could more than double by years end - depending on the general market conditions.

Disclosure: Back in, VFC is long KERX.




Monday, February 8, 2010

Readers Respond: MDFI, RPRX, EVRM

A follow-up to TomC's comment regarding the timing of Buy and Sell orders:

Dear VFC, Your articles are excellent and extremely honest in analyzing different stocks. It is also commendable you emphasize on helping small investors to make the best possible decisions. A major issue I face is timing the buying and selling of a stock. Using level2 and other tools at work is not practical. If you have any thoughts on practical methods for timing buys and sells for small investors will be greatly appreciated. Also any thoughts on the following speculative stocks mdfi, rprx and evrm. Thanks!

VFC's Take: The first part of Tom's question was answered [HERE].

Now for the stock picks:

MDFI.ob: Tom had previously asked me about MedeFile at the end of January where I called the stock a decent enough, speculative health care play since it looked like the company is taking advantage of the national switch to digital record keeping.

Additionally, I felt (and still do feel) that the company could benefit from an influx of public money as a result of the increased federal spending in the health care sector.

Since my last posting on MDFI, the company has announced another marketing and distribution contract, this time with the National Homecare Network.

With a market cap of eleven million, there's some room for upside if the contracts keep rolling in - in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.





RPRX: Shares of Repros Therapeutics crashed and burned last year after it was announced that the FDA ordered a hold on the company's clinical trial Proellex, a potential treatment for anemia, uterine fibroids and endometriosis.

Meanwhile, the company's pipeline for Androxal is moving forward with Phase II trials underway testing the drugs effect in multiple indications for men with low testosterone levels.

With the uncertainty surrounding Proellex and given the early stages of the Androxal pipeline, I would be inclined to shy away from RPRX at the current prices, although the stock could rebound nicely if the Androxal trials turn out positive.

For 'night on the town' money, I think that there are some better risk/reward plays out there; if you want in as a long term investment, then wet your beak with a few shares now and hold some cash on the sidelines in order to buy more if it drops - this way you're not 'all in' if the stock drops and you won't miss out on a run, if one were to occur.

I'm not going to be a buyer of RPRX, it looks like Proellex is dead and I'm not crazy about the market potential of Androxal just yet.

Just my opinion, each investor should do his or her own DD.

Disclosure: No position.

Online Trading Academy

EVRM.pk: Shares of The Evermedia Group, Inc. trade for a penny with a market cap of just over seven million. The company owns various patents and technology revolving around iris recognition technology.

From what I could gather, the company is placing its future on the hopes of government contracts and sub-contracts, a strategy that could pay off, but an investment here is one based on the assumption that the government money will come in.

This is an all or nothing play, in my opinion, depending on government contracts - the direction that the company seems to want to go.

That said, the technology is definitely in demand in this day and age, so if Evermedia can gain a foothold in the defense contracting arena, then big things could happen.

Again, just my opinion each investor should do his or her own DD.

Disclosure: No position.




Readers Respond: Timing Your Buys and Sells

From TomC:

Dear VFC, Your articles are excellent and extremely honest in analyzing different stocks. It is also commendable you emphasize on helping small investors to make the best possible decisions. A major issue I face is timing the buying and selling of a stock. Using level2 and other tools at work is not practical. If you have any thoughts on practical methods for timing buys and sells for small investors will be greatly appreciated. Also any thoughts on the following speculative stocks mdfi, rprx and evrm. Thanks!

VFC's Take: Thanks for the comments, Tom, and you ask a great question; the timing of your buy & sell orders ultimately decides how much profit (or loss) you will realize. That's why it is essential that the small investor comes up with an entry & exit strategy before investing in a stock, and it's even more important to tie your buy & sell orders to those strategies.

As Tom stated, the small investor, for the most part, does not have the time to sit in front of a computer screen all day staring at the price action of all the stocks in the portfolio, so DD is paramount and limit orders are the tool to use for those that cannot get a computer during trading hours.

When devising you entry and exit strategies, a bunch of 'What if?' scenarios should be included to support your DD. This way you're prepared and confident if you decide to add shares on any significant dips in price or decide to sell a few for a profit on any unexpected spikes.

My rule of thumb is to try and get on house money as quickly as possible, so setting limit orders with your 'trading shares' can let you take advantage of the volatility when you're not sitting in front of a computer - but your limit prices should be based on your own DD and where you would be comfortable adding or selling. When using limit orders, you'll end up potentially missing some opportunities to sell for a higher price or buy for a lower one sometimes, but you'll still be able to take advantage of the volatility.

Let's use CSUH as an example. That stock was dropping in 2008, and while I would add shares from time to time on the way down, I had a limit order set at .025 (pre-RS) that hit in October of that year. I was confident to buy while the stock while it was dropping because nothing was changing with the company (aside from growing distribution), and the business plan being put in motion looked encouraging enough - not to mention Celsius had a product that could gain a foothold in the shifting trend towards healthier beverages, in my opinion.

That's not to say that you only have to have one limit order in motion - you could set a few low-priced BUY orders and a few high-priced SELL orders, if you like.

Part of the entry strategy should include the price where you would 'load the boat' if the stock hit that low; for CSUH (and coincidentally enough also for BIEL), I considered that price as .025 - so although I add shares of stocks that I like on dips in price, I pick up the pace of buying the lower the price goes. This way the price does not have to rebound quite so much in order to bank a profit.

But it's up to each investor to come up with his or her own entry/exit strategies that suit them after conducting their own personal DD; some investors have a higher tolerance for risk and volatility than others.

You may feel like you never get in right in terms of buying at the bottom or selling at the top, but you don't have to - as long as you stick to your strategies, rely on your DD and remember to take some profit off the table any time you can (the most important part of investing in speculative stocks), then you'll do all right - and don't get greedy, if you've got some profit on the table - take some of it, especially when playing with the pink sheet stocks.

Also keep manipulation in mind; the big boys will often dictate the short term trading patterns of the small and micro cap stocks, and the prices where they decide to settle are only meant to help them eat their cake, with no consideration to your shares - you've got to take advantage of their games, adjust your strategy accordingly and try to get some crumbs left over by the big boys after their done eating their cake.

The best trading scenarios, in my opinion, are created when the big boys drop the price of a stock in order to get the little guy to sell in a panicked frenzy because they want your shares. They may keep the stock low for quite a while before allowing it to run, but by buying into the dip, it allows for larger gains during the spike. Of course you've got to be confident in your DD in order to stomach the buy orders during a significant drop in price.

On a last note, depending on how much time you have to follow your investments, you can set your limit orders daily, leave them as "Good Until Cancelled" orders or use a combination of both; each has its own benefit. Daily limit orders allow you to take advantage of any possible short term volatility while the GTC orders set you up for the longer term, but it's harder to predict where a stock will be the farther out you go.

Hopefully this was of some help, and I'll get to your individual stocks in a follow-up post.

Keep in mind that this is all just my opinion - each investor needs to devise their own investning strategies.

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Thursday, February 4, 2010

Readers Respond: IMDS, MBCI, IMUC, CPRX

From Josh:

VFC,
I (we) really appreciate all your guidance for investment and I am really happy to find this blog. I need your help to shine some lights on IMDS, MBCI, IMUC, CPRX. Me and my friends will be waiting for your views on these before investing.

Thanks in advance,
Josh


Good to hear from you again, Josh and I'm glad you find the blog helpful.

IMDS.ob: The potential of Imaging Diagnostic System, Inc. lies in its imaging device that is said to aid in the detection and management of breast cancer.

The product is not yet approved for sale in the United States, although it is approved in various countries around the world. According to the company's website and some recent press releases, the clinical studies that will be needed for Pre-Marketing Approval by the FDA are ongoing.

VFC's Take: I could support a speculative buy of IMDS, based on the fact that an FDA filing could come by mid-year 2010 and the stock could see a nice spike on that news, barring any major dilution. Dilution is a concern as the company has stated that expenses are going to increase significantly during 2010 - mostly due to expenses related to the PMA preparation and filing, but also because the global marketing plan is being put into effect.

The current market cap of eight million leaves room for some nice upside on the right move, and the roughly 350 million shares outstanding are not overly alarming considering the stock is still trading on the BB.

One item to note is that this system is geared to work in conjunction with the mammography, not in place of it; while I think this stock has some potential to end up as a nice trade, I'm looking for something that could replace the mammography, because that's where I think that the mid to long term trend is heading.

I think that Lifeline Biotechnologies' (LLBO.pk) First Warning System could play in that arena, although Lifeline seems to be further away from an FDA filing than IMDS at this point - and also has more outstanding shares than Tiger Woods has notches on his bedpost.

If you go with IMDS, try and trade the volatility, and I wouldn't jump in all at once - there's always the possibility of a post-dilutive dip to add shares.

There's definitely some long term potential here, but with the FDA you just never know; that said, it's a plus that the product is gaining approval world-wide.

Keep in mind that these are just my own opinions. Each investor should rely on his or her own DD before investing.

Disclosure: No position.





MBCI.ob: MabCure started out as a company that was trying to develop a detergent to remove pesticides from fruits and vegetables before purchasing some assets and technology and moving into the cancer-detection business.

VFC's Take: While the company does have some long term potential based on the technology and some short term potential based on volatility and hype, I think that for the near future it's going to be tough-going for this company.

Money is going to be a constant concern for a while since it doesn't look like there's anything close to market and I wouldn't be surprised to see a further drop in share price that what we've already witnessed - especially if we see dilution.

While there's always the chance of an unexpected spike in price to sell for a profit, because nothing is close to market and because the company needs money, I think that there will be an opportunity to buy this one for a lower price in the near future.

An investment now, in my opinion, is one based on the fact that a partner will materialize and throw the company a lifeline.

Of course, that's just my opinion - each investor should do his or her own DD.

Disclosure: No position.






IMUC.ob: In September of last year I commented on Immunocellular Therapeutics, Ltd., and with the stock trading for roughly the same amount now as it was then - and with the long term potential still there - I will stand by my previous assessment.

Although this company is still a long ways away from bringing anything to market, stem cell stocks - and this one deals with cancer stem cell therapy - have the potential to trade a little ahead of themselves (GERN traded with a market cap of nearly a billion while having nothing out of Phase II not too long ago), and IMUC could become a benefactor of hype.

That said, there is still some short term downside because the products are in the early stages of development, so try and average down when you can - in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.

Covestor Investment Management

CPRX: Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners Inc. is developing drugs that treat disorders of the Central Nervous System - namely epilepsy and drug addiction.

This company's most advanced product is vigabatrin (CPP-109) for the treatment of addiction to cocaine, methamphetamine and other addictive substances, a Phase II product for which Catalyst has already received fast track status from the FDA.

The US Department of Defense has also issued a grant of $1.2 million to study the drug.

VFC's Take: A decent enough long term pick, in my opinion, with some short term potential based on the Phase II study results. If those results are positive I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick double or triple in share price to be followed by dilution, volatility and a move to a higher market cap as the fast track story develops.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Briefs: DDSS, CSKH, MSBT, MFLI

DDSS: Shares of LabaoPharm turned red during the afternoon trading hours on Wednesday, just hours after the company announced that the FDA had approved OLEPTRO,the company's treatment for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD).

An early day price spike to nearly three dollars preceded the downturn that saw DDSS trade for as low as $2.17, before closing the day at $2.21. Volume remained very strong throughout the day, as expected after such news.

These days, it's not unusual to see such a drop in price after positive FDA approval news (see: BDSI, NRIFF, etc); and although it's a bit nerve-shattering for longs of the stock to watch, it's actually nothing to complain about because it gives small investors the chance to buy shares of a company with an approved drug for the same price - or less - that just days before would have bought a more speculative company with an uncertain FDA decision looming.

Even when the stock trades down after positive news, it's still a better buy today than it was yesterday because of the increased certainty that the company will be able to generate revenue over the mid to long term.

However, it's because of scenarios like this one that demonstrate the need of the small investor to base investment decision on his or her own DD - and not the message boards, blogs or unexpected price swings; in the confusion it's a whole lot easier to sell into the uncertainty and move on, but an investor who is confident in the DD will have the fortitude to stick it out, maybe add some shares on the dip, and look towards the future.

The small investor cannot influence the stock price, the stock price will do what the big boys want it to do; it's up to the small investor to be on top of his or her game and to take advantage of the volatility and manipulation (if in fact manipulation is at play) - in this case it's a buying opportunity that has been presented, in my opinion.

When discussing possible manipulation, you can't ignore the fact that when the big boys want a stock to drop, they get their minions - that I like to call riff-raff - to swarm the message boards with multiple user IDs whose orders are to create a mood of confusion, panic, fear and uncertainty. Many small investors cannot handle the desperation that comes with all of those emotions and will therefor sell their shares (either for a loss or not as much profit as they could have banked by selling earlier) and play right into the hands of the riff-raff.

Once the stock has dropped and the riff-raff are somewhat satisfied with the amount of shares that they've shaken loose, they disappear off the message boards just as quickly as they showed up. Many will deny that such manipulation takes place, but after seeing the same game quite a few times, you'll feel a lot more comfortable holding through the storm, and possibly even adding a few shares.

Don't get me wrong, if something changes with the company that you're investing in that fits your 'exit strategy' protocol, then it may be wise to completely bail out. But if it's a secondary variable that is impacting the share price of your stock, and not actually events related to the company, then rely on your DD and stick to your entry/exit strategies.

It always comes back to DD and patience - and to not being afraid to take some profit off the table when the opportunity arises.

In the case of DDSS - as is usually the case immediately after FDA approvals - the time between approval and commercial launch is usually months, and that is why - in my opinion - that there is time for these games to be played; because even after a commercial launch, it'll still be months before the investor has a good idea of how much revenue is coming in.

That's why these days the small investor can't count on banking some profits immediately after approval - we need to have a longer term outlook to realize the expected gains; however, with that said, there is usually plenty of volatility leading up to the FDA approval that allows investors to do a bit of trading in order to end up on house money by the time D-day comes.

If you were positive on DDSS before the FDA decision, then there's no reason to change your position now - just keep patient and look for news regarding a partnership announcement, commercial launch and ultimately revenue generation; and the revenue generation for OLEPTRO could be significant.

Keep in mind, this is all just my opinion - each investor should do his or her own DD before investing.

Disclosure: VFC is long DDSS.

Valentines Day keepsakes

CSKH.ob: After being tipped off to Clear Skies Solar a few months ago, I finally added this one to my clean energy portfolio. The Obama Administration will be pouring money into the 'green' sector for the coming years and with a market cap of just over eight million, I like the prospects of CSKH turning at least a nice double during 2010 as (if) new contracts keep rolling in.

This week Clear Skies announced an $800,000 deal for a roof-top solar energy project in New Jersey. The project is expected to get underway later this month and according to some recent buzz, additional project announcements could be forthcoming over the short term.

Volume has been up - although not through the roof by any means - without much movement in stock price which I believe bodes well for a nice move when it comes time for the stock to move.

Whether you agree with the politics of the current President or not, there's one thing that is certain - we need to throw money at rebuilding the aging infrastructure of this country, and we might as well go green while we're doing it. The next few years should be good one for the 'green' companies, in my opinion, and the Clear Skies stock has room to rise.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSKH.

Personal Wine Valetines 2010 Wattle 125x125

MSBT.ob: Shares of MedaSorb Technologies Corporation were on the move Wednesday, closing 22% to the upside on four times the average trading volume.

The move came with no news being released, but it is expected that the company should be providing an update regarding the CytoSorb trial in Europe. CytoSorb, for those that may just now be coming on board, is the company's medical device treatment for extreme sepsis.

Late last year the MSBT stock rose to just about forty cents on hype and speculation alone and the next big run could push this one close to or over a dollar, in my opinion, especially if a relevant news release accompanies the rise.

Even while I love the risk/reward with MSBT, I still feel that investors should take some profits off the table on the way up because I consider MSBT a short term 'one trick pony for the time being. If CytoSorb fails, then I think that the stock will see sub five cents again, but if it is successful - the potential upside is huge.

MSBT has been a volatile play for a few months now, but it could be that an update on the CytoSorb trial is close. Keep an eye on this one.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.



MFLI.pk: On Monday, Muscle Flex, Inc. put out a press release announcing that another press release would be following on Tuesday - an action that struck me as suspicious. Shares of MFLI had spiked after news was released that Kim Kardashian would be promoting a Muscle Flex line and - as I stated on Monday - that spike was a nice opportunity to sell, especially in retrospect.

The big news that justified a 'warning' press release was that the company would be launching a reality television series called 'The Complete Package' - a series dedicated to finding the new 'Miss Muscle Flex.'

Ambitious it is, but the news sent the stock down by 50% over the next two trading days in part, in my opinion, because investors recognize the fact that it will take some significant money to both sign Kardashian and launch a reality TV show - money that we're not so sure that Muscle Flex has to spend.

As I stated on Monday, I think that this move puts the company at the crossroads of its future - the celebrity signing and reality TV show could be viewed as an effort to launch into the mainstream and therefor make Muscle Flex relevant, or it's a sloppy and expensive publicity ploy that will ultimately bankrupt the company and send 'Miss Muscle Flex' looking for work at Scores.

However, this country is infatuated with reality TV - it's amazing the amount of garbage reality shows about people I've never heard of that dominate the cable television channels throughout the day - and there's a slim chance that this reality show could become a success, just because it's a reality TV show.

Hey, if Jon & Kate could garner so much attention, then I'm sure a few Beverly Hills hotties bouncing around in workout gear could, too, especially if Kardashian (and her finer assets) make a few cameo appearances.

Because of that potential I think it's worth buying back into MFLI with some 'night on the town' money - especially if the stock remains trading for under .025.

Disclosure: No position.

LaboPharm (DDSS) Receives FDA Approval for OLEPTRO

DDSS: LaboPharm, Inc. announced on Wednesday that the US FDA has approved OLEPTRO, the company's treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD) in adults. OLEPTRO is a once-daily formulation of trazodone and utilizes the LaboPharm's controlled release technology, CONTRAMID.

According to the Wednesday morning press release, the company expects to have OLEPTRO available for prescription in the United States later this year.

After spiking to nearly $3 on the market open, shares of DDSS traded down to the roughly $2.70 mark as the morning progressed, although volume was extremely heavy; the first hour of trading saw more than ten times the average daily volume change hands.

The modest bump in price did not meet the expectations of many investors, although it's my opinion that the February 3rd approval may have caught some off-guard since February 11th was expected to be the decision-day; and the FDA has been running behind schedule at that.

The booming volume would indicate that there are big players taking positions in the stock, and although OLEPTRO won't make it to market until later this year, the potential for a short term bump in price still exists since Wednesday's PR mentioned that the company "currently expects to finalize the commercialization plan for OLEPTRO(TM) in the near term."

That means partnership news can come at any time.

With an approved product in a very large market, DDSS should be considered a nice long term growth play - one that also could become a nice short to mid term story if the stock starts trading to its potential.

These days in the biotech sector it looks more and more like large investors like to see revenue before running the stock, but the small investor needs to have the patience to wait for the run.

Remember, the big boys will play their games and eat their cake, we're just trying to pick up a few crumbs along the way.

DDSS just became a great growth stock, in my opinion, especially since the share price hasn't changed on what should be considered big news.

Also worth mentioning is the possibility of dilution, although a partnership deal could bring enough of an upfront payment to LaboPharm to negate the need for raising a large sum of cash through stock sales.

All just my opinion, each investor should do his or her own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long DDSS.




Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Briefs: CSUH, BIEL, LLBO, BMSN

CSUH.ob: Celsius Holdings announced another distribution deal on Tuesday, this time with Winn Dixie Supermarkets - a long time mainstay in the southeastern portion of the country.

Winn Dixie opens up over 500 additional supermarket locations where the Celsius calorie-burning product will be sold, assuming the product makes it into just about all of the Winn Dixie locations.

The recent boom in product distribution continues - as does the advertising campaign - and it's safe to assume that CEO Steve Haley's comments in an Investment Nation interview last October will come to fruition; Haley noted that at the current pace, Celsius would be in just about every mainstream retailer that we've heard of by March of 2010.

At this point it's not new distribution that will interest investors - because significant distribution growth is already assumed - it's demonstrated revenue growth that will attract new investors to the stock. On that note, last quarters 77% quarter-over-quarter growth rate was sure a good finale to 2009, potentially leaving 2010 as the year that Celsius becomes a dominant player in the beverage market.

As I've mentioned before, I think that the original calorie burning beverage will be able to take full advantage of the shifting trend towards health awareness.

CSUH traded a mind-boggling 1,400 shares on Tuesday and closed at $4.84. While that total would indicate that new money isn't pouring in just yet, it also indicates that current shareholders are holding tight and waiting to see what the next few quarters wil bring.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



BIEL.pk: Shares of BioElectronics jumped six percent - a move that was welcomed by long term investors who had been holding and adding through the recent downturn in the BIEL share price - after StockPreacher.com issued a trading alert for the stock on Tuesday.

The report didn't recommend a buy or a sell, nor did it state that BIEL was ready for a move to the upside (the technical analysis was neutral, in my opinion), but the write-up was relatively positive.

The report highlighted recent comments by CEO Andrew Whelan regarding his confidence of eventually receiving 'Class II' medical device status for the BioElectronics products and also highlighted the recent move into the Japanese market.

The StockPreacher report was also mentioned by StreetInsider.com.

I still consider the three-cent level a great time to add shares of this stock, and a little late day volume spike (and the timing of the StockPreacher report) has me wondering if news is close. If news were to be released at this point, I would expect to hear about audited financials, since any news on FDA classification looks to be further off than previously expected.

I'm now about as fully loaded on this stock as I'd like to be, but I won't be able to resist another chance to add if the stock dips down to below .025.

Like CSUH, 2010 should be a year of significant growth for BioElectronics; and although the FDA story may take some time to play out, there's always the possibility that additonal moves into the international market could come to fruition in the meantime.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



LLBO.pk: The share price of Lifeline Biotechnologies' stock spiked to .0027 on Tuesday afternoon, immediately after the company issued a press release announcing an update on the status of the 510k filing preparations for the First Warning System.

For those new to the stock, the First Warning System is a radiation-free system that is capable of detecting breast cancer in its early stages. As I've said here before, the FWS is a product that has the potential (in my opinion) to catch on in the medical community in a big way - especially with the radiation-dependant mammography exams raising some recent health concerns.

According to Tuesday's PR, the company needs to modify its previous submissions with the FDA in order to classify for a Class I or II medical device status, or simply move ahead with a pre-marketing submission as a Class III device. Lifeline CEO Jim Holmes stated in the PR that the company has hired a consulting firm and plans to file the 510k later this year.

As soon as investors digested the news from the release, which didn't take too long at all, the stock retreated back to previous trading levels and closed the day at .0018.

While the fact that it could be months before Lifeline files with the FDA was discouraging for investors, the spike (which was so quick that I missed a chance to sell some shares into it) on the PR release indicates to me that there is quite a bit of attention on the stock; so if the company actually releases relevant news, then I think shareholders of LLBO will see some pretty significant percentage gains as a result.

Another concern to note is the fact that the company has nearly three billion outstanding shares right now, and more are probably coming with the delay.

All concerns aside, the potential of the FWS is still enough to compel me to take advantage of the dip in price and add to my position if it drops lower, although I will also take advantage of any spikes and sell a few shares; today's spike was so quick that I missed the chance this time.

Patience is key here - as it always is when playing with the penny stocks especially - but if you believe in the potential of the FWS, then there's no reason to panic just yet. Nothing has changed with the potential of the product, it's only the timeline to possible approval that has changed, and it's still possible that FWS could become a done deal by the end of 2010.

Another event to keep in mind is the possibility of a reverse split. While the CEO claims that he has no intention of undertaking an RS at this time, it will have to occur at some point in the mid term future.

With a current market cap of roughly five million, LLBO has room to move in either direction over the short term while we're waiting for news, and if you're sticking with the stock then I'd say to continue to take advantage of any dips in price - but also sell a few shares into any significant spikes in price to reduce the overall exposure to risk in the investment.

As always, this is just my opinion and each investor should do his or her own DD before committing money to any stock.

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.






BMSN.ob: After just recently announcing that Entest BioMedical's (a wholly-owned subsidiary of BioMatrix Scientifics) stem cell laser therapy for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) would be featured on 'Ask the Doctor', a Stem Cells Pioneers forum, it was announced on Tuesday that Entest has initiated studies to support the Company's stem cell / laser regenerative therapy for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).

Shares of BMSN traded up by fourteen percent on the news and I still like the stock as a buy for below ten cents.

Disclosure: VFC is long BMSN.

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Monday, February 1, 2010

Briefs: CRYP, MCET, MFLI, SIRI

CRYP: CryptoLogic Limited is once again trading for roughly three dollars after trading for over seven bucks just five months ago. This company that brands and licenses online betting software and games is still a recovery story and is once again a nice buy - in my opinion.

Quarterly numbers for CrytoLogic have come in below expectations during the global economic downturn - due to the fact that potential gamblers are not willing to spend quite so much and also due to the fact that the licensee companies have been crunched by the economy - but as the global economy normalizes and CryptoLogic continues to license its brands, I think CRYP could be a good bet to at least double for the mid term.

For the long term, CRYP has the potential to more than double - although a lot of potential for the gambling software companies has to do with whether or not lawmakers in the United States will allow online gambling at some point in the near future.

The issue appeared to be headed to the floor of the House last year, but it's unlikely - in my opinion - that we'll hear of any regulation regarding online gambling anytime soon with everything else that needs to be taken care of in DC.

That said, once this administration sniffs the potential tax revenue that could be had by legalizing online gambling, Congress could act quickly. I wouldn't hold my breath for too long on that one, but CRYP could be a nice play for 2010 and beyond even without approval in the US.

Disclosure: No position.

Online Trading Academy

MCET.ob: MultiCell Technologies, Inc. was listed as one of my 'Ten Under-Ten-Cent Picks for 2010' after first being mentioned at VFC's Stock House late last year.

It has been a while since this company released any news, and therefor the stock has remained trading at just over a penny for some time. However, the recent spike in daily volume, but not necessarily accompanied by a spike in price, has me inclined to believe that something will be forthcoming from MultiCell sooner rather than later.

I'm not going to speculate on what news could be pending, but I will say that I'm ready to pick up the pace of my accumulation - especially if the stock remains at or around .015.

I don't see any reason why MCET couldn't at least double over the short term on a decent news release, but if the increasing volume is any indication, then a more significant move may be in the works.

It could be nothing, but keep an eye on this one.

Disclosure: VFC is long MCET.

Trade options, stocks, futures, bonds, mutual funds, and ETFs in ONE account.

MFLI.pk: Shares of Muscle Flex, Inc. have more than doubled over the past week after announcing that Kim Kardashian has signed on to promote the Sassy 'n' Sexy Muscle Flex VATA Active Wear Collection. The collection launched in the US last week.

Kim Kardashian - even though I'm still at a loss as to why she's famous - is good publicity for the company, although I'm still a bit sceptical about the long term viability of the company after failing to catch too much of a foothold over the past six months, a time when things were looking as if they should have taken off.

Bringing on a celebrity of Kardashian's status is sure to be expensive, as was the signing of TLK Fusion - who sealed that deal for Muscle Flex.

Also of note, the company announced that a "major announcement" will be forthcoming on Tuesday, February 2nd - and you have to question the intentions of a press release announcing that another press release will be issued.

The stock has had a nice run over the past week, and there may be more to come, but I'm not so sure that Muscle Flex offers anything transformational enough to justify the significant increase in expenses that the Kardashian signing had to have brought on.

This is a pivotal moment for the company - either this is the beginning of good things to come or it is a last ditch effort to become relevant in the health and fitness industry.

The Tuesday announcement better be good, in my opinion, since the pre-announcement certainly created some buzz.

I sold into Monday's price action to move the money into MCET and some others, but good luck to those still holding.

Disclosure: No position.

Free Tax Returns.com Inc.

SIRI: Shares of SiriusXM Satellite Radio continue to march towards the one dollar mark as some recent upgrades and initiated coverage of the stock have all been positive.

This is a perfect example of why each investor needs to confident in their own DD and not follow the analysts. While SIRI still has room to rise, in my opinion, the potential percentage upside when buying now is not even in the same hemisphere as the potential upside that was to be had if you bought nearly a year ago.

You have to love it how a stock rises from five cents to seventy cents before the analysts start telling you to buy a stock, but they all warned to stay away before hand.

Some will say that SIRI is a much safer bet now than it was then - and that is why the analysts are jumping on board now - and they may be right, but I liked the risk/reward a whole lot better when I was looking at a potential 2000% gain than the double or triple that investors will be looking at from this point.

That's how the games are played and that's why the little guy needs to be in a stock before the biggest move, not after.

There may be some retracement here, but SIRI is destined for a buck before too long, in my opinion.

SatRad is a great service that has weathered the economic storm and is looking at a bright future - in my opinion - even if Howard Stern leaves. I'll take the Mad Dog Channel any day.

And wifey loves the Stiletto to replay the upbeat BPM songs at the gym.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIRI.

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.




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