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Saturday, January 30, 2010

Readers Respond: ARQL, LLBO, BIEL

ARQL: From David regarding ArQule, Inc.:

Dear Mr. VFC House (for lack of a better name),'Hope you're doing well, and off to a great new year! I must tell you that I follow your remarks and recommendations assiduously, waiting to see what pays off! I don't know of anyone else who follows this sub-one dollar space as you do - thanks for all of your great ideas!Here's another one that I have been curious about - Arqule (ARQL). They have been long involved in the cancer research biotech area, but without making much noise for a couple of years. Do you have a take on them?As always, thanks for your insightful thoughts! ds

VFC's Take: An investment in Arqule would be as a longer term speculative cancer play with Phase II results from the ARQ-197 trial having the most immediate potential to move the share price.

According to the company's website, ARQ-197 is currently being evaluated in Phase II trials as a monotherapy and in combination with other treatments in patients with MiT (Microphthalmia Transcription Factor) tumors, non-small cell lung cancer (in combination with erlotinib), pancreatic cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

The Phase II trials are nearing completion and I would expect that the stock would trade with a little bit more volatility to the upside in anticipation of results - although I'm not too sure that the stock would double from its current value since it is still just a Phase II trial.

That said, a jump to a market cap of a PCYC-like 200 million wouldn't be out of the question, at which point the company could try to raise money through a stock offering.

I'd consider ARQL a long term accumulation play.

Disclosure: No position.






An email from Andrew regarding LLBO and BIEL. I've split the email into two separate posts:

LLBO.pk:

VFC,

I have read your blog about the penny and nano penny stocks in which you follow for some time now. For the record I am long on biel and llbo and have been since last summer and have not sold any shares in either. I am curious as to your take on the recent developments at each of the perspective companies.

To start lets discuss LLBO, most notably the vague press release by llbo, which in my opinion was terrible news and the market reacted as such. Everyone has been waiting for a classification on the FWS for months only to find out that the FDA did not classify but left it open to many possibilities. First off, I tried to find out if the FDA actually responds in this manner and was not able to get a clear answer, although I believe the FDA does allow for multiple classification. I am also curious if the FDA is required by law to release the information to the public if they issue a non binding opinion. It all just seems so vague to me, and thus I understand why everyone just said screw this opportunity for the time being. The news can be interpreted in so many ways and without some type of clarification from Holmes people are going to assume the worst as the market is reacting negatively. From deductive reasoning about the mention of the 510k one would have to assume that the FWS would most likely learn towards Class I or II because PMA filing is required if the device is Class III and there is no mention of that in the PR. The one positive statement is that they are moving forward with commercialization, now its just a matter of how much dilution the current investors will have to suffer before the pop in pps. How do you view all of this? Are you still long on LLBO?


VFC's Take: My latest opinion on Lifeline could be found HERE.

I agree that the last PR regarding the FDA filing status was pretty vague and I'm sure that quite a few investors bailed out and moved on either because of negative uncertainty or because they were looking for a quick gain if the FDA news had been more positive.

I'm still long on the stock and I will add shares after the recent drop because I think that the First Warning System, a radiation-free system to detect early breast cancer, will have little trouble entering the market once (if) approved by the FDA.

Dilution will continue to be a burden on the stock price, but if FWS makes it to market, I think that investors will see a pretty hefty return on their investments with LLBO.

Additional news should be forthcoming later this year.

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.

Online Trading Academy

BIEL:

Now for questions regarding BIEL. Biel was looking like such a great investment at the end of last year. The pps had bottomed out for the most part and was holding steady around 4 cents. The market seemed to grasp that biel has a lot of upside but at this point they pump and dump scenarios have already played out and nobody is going to play along them anymore. We all assumed the next PR was going to be the audited financials release to the public, hopefully showing solid revenue growth that is able to sustain the company until it is able to get the ball rolling with reclassification of the actipatch and hopefully fda approval for marketing later on this year. However, with the lack of news the pps has started to bleed again, and to make matters worse we got news that the board issued another 2.5 billion shares to the A/S. After reading some blogs some posts suggest this these are preferred shares to lower debt. I was under in the impression the only debt outstanding was to the CEO, so did he just pay himself off basically? I still think this company has a good product and don’t see why it would not get FDA approval and eventually either get bought out or slowly climb to the dollar range and beyond after all the stars aligned. In any case what is your take on the current state of biel given the new A/S count and are you still long Biel?

VFC's Take: BioElectronics is another company that has been surrounded by some uncertainty of late, but it's also another company with a great product and I believe that the product will win out in the end.

The large OS and AS share count for BIEL is always a concern, but when the products start selling on a global scale, I think that there will be plenty of room for some upside to the share price.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Readers Respond: CITI, LYG

C: From Orest regarding Citi and Lloyds:

Dear VFC,

Isn't this the right time to follow most successful hedge fund manager, John Paulson, and put the money to work in Citi shares? His firm opened a huge position a few months ago with cost average of over $4.. Given the recent stock issuance, and recent weakness in S&P 500, investors got an excellent opportunity to snap C shares at I think 40% discount to tangible book value..(most peers trading at 1.4-1.6) Where do you see C in 3-4 years time? Is $10-14 price target by say 2013 reasonable for C? Also, what is your opinion on biggest UK bank, Lloyds that is trading just above $3? Which one would you pick as a long term investment? Thanks, and all the best!


VFC's House: Good to hear from you Orest. I agree with your statements and I have long been a supporter of adding Citi shares (especially for right around three bucks) to any long term portfolio.

I'm not so sure that C is going to spike too high for the short term, however, but as soon as the country can start looking at the economic downturn in the year view mirror, C could see a pretty good rebound.

Lloyds is in the same boat - a good long term addition to the portfolio - but C is the one that I'm holding.

Disclosure: VFC is long C.

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Readers Respond: TTRX, DDSS, BCON, MDFI

TTRX.ob: From Neal regarding Tetragenex Pharma:

Hi VFC! Nice blog!

What's your opinion on TTRX.OB?

They have a very promising depression drug. As well as low outstanding shares (somewhere around 15 million).

They filed for bk in 2009, but the court threw it out, so they never really went into bk. In the most recent SEC filing, they settled w/ the creditor that they owed money to, so I believe that they're out of that mess now (not 100% sure b/c I'm not an expert at reading SEC filings).

Any thoughts would be much appreciated!
--Neal


VFC's Take: Tetragenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. looks like a nice high risk/high reward speculative play because if the company can find a licensing partner for Nemifitide - the aforementioned depression drug - then the stock price could take off if the deal is even remotely favorable to the company.

The company is trading far below the radar, in my opinion, as many investors have likely been scared away by the bankruptcy proceedings, which were ultimately dismissed, as Neal noted.

Tetragenex intends to market Nemifitide to the patient population that is already resistant to other depression treatments and in addition to searching for a licensing partner in the United States to advance the product to market, the company is also looking towards the international market.

The company still holds quite a bit of debt and is in dire need of cash, but any bit of good news could significantly boost the value of TTRX shares, in my opinion.

I could support a speculative buy of TTRX with some 'night on the town' money.

Disclosure: No position.

Online Trading Academy

DDSS: From Sanosurfer regarding Labopharm, Inc.:

Hey Vinny,

What are your thoughts on DDSS? Many are expecting approval on Feb.11. What are your expectations on post approval? I'm thinking $5-$6, but $12 in six months. Thanks for your thoughts on DDSS.


VFC's Take: Labopharm already has an approved product on the market in Tramadol, a treatment for moderate to severe pain. The once-daily version of the drug is approved and marketed in 17 countries around the globe, including the United States and Canada.

It is expected that the FDA will reach a decision regarding the approval of Trazodone on February 11th. Trazodone is a treatment for Major Depressive Disorder and will look to gain a foothold in the very large 11 billion dollar anti-depressants market.

Additionally, Labopharm has recently filed in Europe for the regulatory approval of a twice-daily version of Tramadol (in combination with Acetaminophen).

I think Sanosurfer's prediction of a $5-$6 price immediately post-approval is accurate, although I think that the stock will inch towards that price before decision-day arrives. I'd also expect some volatility post-approval, as momentum/day/swing traders take their quick gains (if the approval decision is a positive one) and move on.

Other news, such as a partner for Trazodone and/or stock dilution could also add to the post-approval volatility.

Labopharm's proprietary controlled-release technology and the imminent FDA decision for Trazodone make DDSS an exciting play right now and if the FDA does in fact approve, then a march towards the ten dollar level could be in play for the remainder of 2010.

The antidepressant market is a big one.

Disclosure: No position.






From TomC:

Hi VFC, I recently started reading your blog and enjoyed reading few articles. Very valuable! Like to know if you ever looked in to BCON & MDFI. I am very much in to BIEL and looking forward to a good rebound.
Do you have a list of current recommendations and good entry point?
Thanks!!


VFC's Take:

BCON: Beacon Power is a decent energy play right now, in my opinion, because the Obama Administration is dumping boat loads of money into the green energy arena and companies like Beacon could benefit from the money flow.

Beacon's 'Flywheel' technology helps balance the flow of electricity on electrical grids, a valuable technology to offer at a time when the nation is concentrating on updating the power-grid systems.

That said, Beacon's debt and dilution will continue to scare some investors away, but the potential is there for BCON to get back to over a dollar if real revenue growth can be generated this year.

This stock is not flying under the radar right now - meaning that investors have already caught on to the potential of the stock due to the energy sector hype - so I think that only relevant news, and not hype, will move the stock.

Disclosure: No position.

MDFI.ob: Medefile is a leading provider of portable electronic medical records management, another area that could benefit from the Obama Administration's health care spending.

Even if the company does not benefit from the Presidential bum-rush of spending, the company is making strides of its own by announcing several new contracts over the past few months.

With a market cap of over 13 million, any real upside to the stock will depend on the amount of new contracts that the company can pull in - and the large number of outstanding shares could be a weight on any significant upside potential over the short term.

Over the long term, I think that Medefile has the potential to return some significant gains as the country turns to digital medical records.

Disclosure: No position.

Covestor Investment Management

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Briefs: ANX, BMSN, SIRI, SIGA

ANX: Shares of Adventrx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. dipped down to below thirty cents again on Thursday after having risen to a high of over fifty cents earlier this month when the company announced an NDA filing for ANX-530. The news of the NDA was followed by a stock offering.

Those looking to speculate on the ANX-530 position could be looking at a nice entry point, in my opinion, for below thirty cents. I think we'll see at least fifty cents again before the FDA decision is announced - maybe more, depending on the market.

Buy the dips and play the volatility, in my position.

Disclosure: No position.






BMSN: Bio-Matrix Scientific Group, Inc. announced on Thursday that the company's majority-owned Subsidiary, Entest BioMedical, will be Featured on 'Ask the Doctor', a Stem Cell Pioneers forum.

A representative from Entest will discuss the company's progress on its stem cell laser therapy for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).

With a current market cap of under five million and a stock trading for under ten cents, I like BMSN as a speculative stem cell play and I'm accumulating accordingly.

Also of note, volume and volatility have been on the rise over the last couple of weeks, but that may be attributed to Thursday's press release.

Disclosure: VFC is long BMSN.

Online Trading Academy

SIRI: Shares of SiriusXM Satellite Radio enjoyed a nice ten percent gain on Thursday, a day after Wunderlich initiated coverage of the company and labeled the stock a buy.

It looks like SiriusXM has entered another growth phase as the economy and auto industry have started to rebound and I think that the stock is on its way to a dollar, as I've stated before.

That said, it won't be a straight-up spike, as I'm confident that we'll see another retreat after this ten percent jump, but I still like SIRI as a mid to long term pick.

The worst, in my opinion, is behind this company.

It's hard to believe that this stock traded for five cents nearly a year ago.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIRI.

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.

SIGA: RBC Capital initiated coverage of SIGA Technologies on Thursday with a rating of 'Outperform' and a price target of $11 - although RBC also stated that the stock price could go as high as $26, depending on the size of the BARDA smallpox contract that is deemed likely to, at least in part, be awarded to SIGA.

Shares of SIGA jumped just over three percent on the news.

There's no telling when (or if) the BARDA contract will be awarded, but I still like the price of the March call options - there was no significant move in options after the RBC news was released during the AM hours Thursday.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIGA.

Free Tax Returns.com Inc.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Readers Respond: OPMG, BIEL, YESD, GNVC

OPMG.ob: An email from Ash regarding Options Media Group:

VFC, hi!
I'd very appreciate to hear your take on OPMG. According to Joel Noel it has target price of .30¢. Do you think now is a good entry point or a good play altogether.
thank you,
ash
http://www.joenoelstocks.com/stocks-covered/options-media-group-holdings-opmg/options-media-groups-opmg-summary-points/


VFC's Take: I think that Options Media Group is a decent speculative play for those looking to invest in a company that is making strides in the digital advertising sector.

I don't quite think that the stock is trading under the radar, so it will be merit more than hype that moves the price to the upside, in my opinion, but patient investors could be well rewarded with a buy order now.

Highly speculative, but I could support a mid to long term investment in this company, with the possibility of some short term moves as well.

I would also consider the possibility that this smaller company could be acquired by a bigger dog in the kennel before long, but that is just my speculation.

If you're looking to get in I would say buy in at these prices with half of the total amount that you want to buy in with - this way you can average down if the price drops but you're not completely on the sidelines if the stock starts to run.

Disclosure: No position.

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BIEL.pk, YESD.ob: Another email from Ash regarding BioElectronics and YesDTC:

VFC, it's me again, i forgot to ask you before regarding YESD. you are an strong BIEL fan who believes we have a good chance next year to profit (BTW i am so glad for your support on BIEL, i am sitting in so much RED - without your positivity it would be much harder to sit through all year like this) - so back to YESD, who have acquired the rights to sell BIELS' product, is it advisable to invest in them too.Thank you,ash

VFC's Take: Thanks for the email, I continue to believe in BIEL because I like the potential of the products. If you're confident in your DD then the recent drop should be perceived as nothing more than a nice buying opportunity, in my opinion.

As for YESD, If you've got BIEL, then there's no reason to invest in the middle-man, in my opinion.

That said, if you have other reasons to invest in YESD other than the potential of the ActiPatch Japanese rights, then by all means do so. If it's a cut of ActiPatch and Allay you want, I would say to just stick with BIEL.

Of course, this is just my opinion and each investor should do his or her own DD.

Disclosure: Long BIEL, No position YESD.



GNVC: An email from Eric:

Hey Vinnie,

This is my first time emailing but I read your blog often and want to thank you for your advice. Have a question about genvec. I was looking at the survival results from the interim analysis back in late 08 and I gotta be honest they didn't look that impressive.
TnFerade control arm
12 month 39.9% 22.5%
18 month 30.5% 11.3 %
24 month 10.6% 11.3%

median survival for both 9.9 months

So I guess what Im asking is if Im missing something? Any insight would be greatly appreciated. Keep up the good work!

Eric


VFC's Take: Thanks for reading and thanks for the email.

I agree, the interim results were not blow-away numbers, in my opinion, although I think that this statement by Dr. Mark Thornton, GenVec's Senior Vice President of Product Development, demonstrates the positive potential for final results to prove successful:

"In the SOC patients, 75% of the patients died within approximately 11.8 months. However, in the TNFerade plus SOC group, 75% of the patients did not die until approximately 19.4 months. Although the data still need time and events to reach maturity, we are encouraged by the survival trend being observed at this point in the trial."

TNFerade in combination with standard care did extend lives and that could be enough to compel the FDA to approve, in my opinion, if the trend continues into the final presentation of data.

By comparison, Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge didn't demonstrate such a positive outcome when interim results of the Phase III trial were released, although by the end of the trial the life-extending nature of Provenge was noted and it's expected that the FDA will approve the treatment later this year.

The lower GNVC drops after the recent offering, then the better speculative buy I think the stock becomes, but I'm still a bit sceptical about the overall success of the TNFerade trial.

The timing of the offering could be interpreted as negative because the company felt compelled to raise funds now because the company was not confident enough in the trial progression to wait until after positive results were released to raise money; but it could be interpreted as a signal that the company is boosting the cash reserves now in preparation for an NDA filing with the FDA.

In my opinion, the company simply took advantage of a good price spike.

I'd try and trade the volatility of GNVC with some trading shares leading into the Phase III data release.

That said, I expect the stock to rise to at least the mid $2 ranger (after first dipping to $1.50) before the results are released.

Disclosure: No position.

24hourtax- 300z250c

Briefs: ACTC, CSUH, GNVC

ACTC.ob: Advanced Cell Technologies received a mention, along with Geron (GERN) and Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) in a Reuters article on Wednesday discussing the potential applications and recent developments for stem cell technology.

Shares of ACTC continue to trade for under ten cents.

Disclosure: VFC is long ACTC.






CSUH.ob: In a Wednesday press release, Celsius Holdings announced that another member of team DeSantis has joined the Celsius board, this time it was the former CEO of Rexall Sundown, Christian Nast.

Mr. Nast has an impressive resume in the consumer product and marketing industry and his arrival to the company was welcome news, according to comments made by CEO Steve Haley in Wednesday's release.

DeSantis has brought a full team from Rexall with him to Celsius Holdings and investors are waiting to see if these guys can repeat their previous success.

I've stated before that I believe that America is in the midst of a shift towards health awareness and the Celsius calorie-burning beverage, which is also loaded with vitamins and nutrients, could fit right into the shifting trendline.

In additional developments, this months edition of the 'Celsius Bright Connections' newsletter gives some insight into recent developments by the company, including a sampling into a Costco location with the new 15-packs and some additional celebrity sightings.

Last quarter's earnings for the company were pretty impressive, with 77% quarter-over-quarter growth, and eyes will be on the first quarter 2010 results to see if growth could once again approach that number, or even surpass it.

Shares of CSUH dropped six percent on Wednesday to close the day at $4.31.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



GNVC: Shares of GenVec, Inc (GNVC) tumbled by over 25% on Wednesday after the company announced a $28 million stock offering.

While the stock is trading to the downside - and I think we could see sub-$1.50 again - it could be a good time for investors looking to speculate on the upcoming TNFerade results to start a position and/or for current shareholders to add shares to their positions.

The past few weeks were the start of a very volatile phase for GNVC, and it could give investors the option of trading in and out with some trading shares during the runup to the TNFerade Phase III results.

I'm on the fence about how I perceive the chances for TNFerade success, but if the results are positive, then GNVC will without-a-doubt become a 'multiple-bagger' stock, but investors should not ignore the downside if the results are less than stellar.

I'd try and play the volatility a bit with this one and try to at least come out with house money by the time results are released.

Disclosure: No position.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Briefs: CBAI, SIGA, CVM, ACTC, BMSN

CBAI.ob: The volatility continued for the Cord Blood America stock as CBAI rebounded on Tuesday to close nearly twenty percent to the upside after the company announced that it had "retired $6 million worth of notes which had been provided by Enable Capital Management, LLC and their affiliates between 2007 and 2009."

The announcement of reduced debt comes on the heels of the highly anticipated January 22nd grand opening of Cord Blood's Las Vegas facility.

2010 has been proclaimed as a year of growth by Cord Blood CEO and co-founder Matthew Schissler, and thus far in 2010 the company has not disappointed in terms of new developments.

Again, I'm still not fully convinced that the country - or the world - is ready for this service, not in the midst of a down economy, but I'm intrigued enough to hold a long position while also trading in and out with a few shares to take advantage of the volatility.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

24hourtax

SIGA: Shares of Siga Technologies enjoyed a late day comeback on Tuesday to close three percent to the upside with no news being released.

SIGA continues to be an enticing short and long term play as the possibility of a government contract for the company's small pox vaccine is always a possibility.

For those playing the short term BARDA contract possibilities, the March call options are selling for attractive prices at this time, but it's worth noting that the chaos in Washington right now is sure to hold up government funds from being released - in my opinion.

That said, it's hard for any country in the world to ignore the risk of a bio-terror attack in this day and age.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIGA.

Covestor Investment Management
A few stocks that are in VFC's buy zone:

CVM: Couldn't help but add a few shares when the stock dropped into the sixty cent range on Tuesday. While the Multikine trial is not expected to begin until the summer, the company could pop news on another front (maybe LEAPS?) to support a one dollar share price for the time being; although that is purely my own speculation.

That said, long term-minded shareholders should enjoy the attractive entry point.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

ACTC.ob: When Advanced Cell Tech is below the ten cent mark (I actually prefer to add for below eight cents), I'll accumulate shares of this one as a long term, speculative stem cell play.

BMSN.ob: Also a long term stem cell play, I like this one for anywhere around six cents.




Monday, January 25, 2010

Readers Respond: CTIC, CVM, BIEL, BDSI

An email from Vin:

Vinny,

I've been following your blog for a while. I find your commentary to be interesting. Though I might not completely agree with all of the points, I respect that you have an independent opinion - which is more than I can say of 90% of the population around me.

I'd like to know your thoughts on CTIC. They obviously have a wealth of info in the form of posters and other material from their trials of pixantrone here:
http://www.celltherapeutics.com/investor_updates

The stock has dropped a bit and is in the buy range right now, IMHO. What is your commentary and objective analysis of the data presented? Do you believe that the data is compelling enough for the FDA to give a positive review come the April 23 PDUFA date?

BTW, I have followed your posts on CVM and BIEL. I made some money on CVM and lost some on BIEL. Now, I am out of these two stocks completely as I felt like I was getting into a case of investor bias with these two. Besides, I had a bad experience with CVM's investor relations not so much as acknowledging my query to them. Granted I'm no Warren Buffett plonking a million bucks down, but that's just unprofessional. Then again, some will argue that they are very busy and don't have time to reply to individual investors. At the very least they could have an auto-reply with some generic text!

Anyway, back to the topic of the email - what is your analysis of the data presented on pixantrone (http://www.celltherapeutics.com/investor_updates)?

-Vin


VFC's Take: Yo, Vin! Thanks for reading and thanks for the email.

I agree that CTIC has dipped down into the buy range for those that are willing to speculate on the upcoming pixantrone decision, but with a market cap already of over six hundred million, I'm wondering how much further the stock price could rise in anticipation of the April 23rd date - although we may have a better idea of what the stock will do after an FDA advisory committee reviews the pixantrone application on February 10th.

In my opinion, pixantrone has a decent shot of approval based on the trial results (keep in mind that I'm no Doctor) and the fact that the drug would treat an unmet need, but the FDA is a bureaucratic bunch and it's just as likely that the agency could ask for more information - in my opinion.

If I were to invest in the stock now, I'd try and sell some shares into any spike leading into the advisory meeting - and then again leading into the April 23rd date - in order to reduce the overall risk of the investment because if an 'approvable' or 'non-approvable' letter were to be the FDA's response, then I think that a drop to fifty cents would be likely. That said, I think that it's highly unlikely that CTIC will receive a response of 'non-approvable'.

Additionally, the timing of the company's recent fund-raising would not indicate that the head brass is wholly confident in approval, although that deal could have already been in the works for some time and the timing could be a non-factor. It does raise some eyebrows, however.

I like the speculative aspect of a CTIC buy at this price, but I would definitely try and take advantage of any volatility and attempt to end up at least close to house money by April.

As for your investments in CVM and BIEL, I respect that you jumped out when you thought you were looking at the company through biased-glasses, I don't support anyone staying in an investment where they lose track of the entry/exit strategy.

I wouldn't put too much credence in the lack of a response from investor relations, however. I know that some people do, but in my experience it's been more the norm to not here back from IR departments - especially when dealing with highly speculative biotech companies - and I consider it a non-factor to not hear back from small investor inquiries, but I will consider a plus for the company if they do respond.

I think that if that is a criteria for investing in a company then some money-making opportunities will be missed. For instance, I attempted to contact Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP) on numerous occasions early last year when the stock was dropping to around a penny, but when I never heard back I just relied on my own DD. I ended up riding that one to its current levels of about $2.25.

In the case of CVM, the Cel Sci IR department has also had to deal with a plethora of calls regarding false innuendos that have been thrown out there by certain entities which takes away from the small investor looking to get a valid question answered.

I feel your concerns, but I wouldn't necessarily jump ship just for not hearing back from IR. To be honest, you'll never hear anything from IR that is not already public information, so for that reason I rarely work contacting IR into my strategy for conducting DD.

Disclosure: No position CTIC, long CVM and BIEL.

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From Virginia regarding BioDelivery Sciences:

Hello,

Any thoughts on BDSI.

Thanks
Virginia


VFC's Take: With Onsolis already approved and marketed - and with the BEMA drug delivery technology offering a pipeline of possibilities, I continue to believe that BDSI is a great long term growth pick.

Of note, BioDelivery recently announced that it will meet with the FDA in March regarding an upcoming Phase III trial for BEMA Granisetron, an anti-nausea and vomiting treatment.

I also see BDSI trading for about double its current price at some point in 2010.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.




Briefs: BIEL, KERX, CBAI

BIEL.pk: Shares of BioElectronics Corp bucked the recent downtrend on Monday and closed the trading day up by ten percent on news that the company made a move into the Japanese market.

According to a press release issued Monday morning, YesDTC has acquired the rights to market and distribute ActiPatch in Japan. YesDTC is an established direct-to-consumer global distributor and will market ActiPatch with a direct response television advertising campaign and is currently working on the plans to market the product on the retail circuit.

Yes DTC has already placed an initial order with BioElectronics.

Also of note, the Japanese medical authorities have classified ActiPatch as a 'Class I' medical device.

It is my opinion that ActiPatch will be a good seller in the gadget-happy Japanese market because of that country's already-established acceptance of alternative and bioelectric treatments. With an initial order already placed, ActiPatch should hit the Japanese market fairly quickly.

Investors received the news well, sending the BIEL stock price to .037 before trickling downward throughout the rest of the day.

The move into the Japanese market is welcome news coming from the company, which declared that 2010 would be a year of significant growth.

The stock volatility is likely not over, but Monday's PR is just another reason to be confident in the future of the company.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



KERX: Shares of Keryx Biopharmaceuticals closed the day on Monday nearly four percent to the upside after the company announced at an ASCO meeting in Orlando, Florida that a Phase II study that tested Perifosine in the treatment of Advanced Metastatic Colon Cancer proved to be statistically significant in favor of perifosine.

Keryx is still a nice mid to long term speculative play, in my opinion, although I've traded out for now and am looking to get back in at $2.50 or so.

Disclosure: No position.



CBAI.ob: With the hype faded from Cord Blood America's Vegas facility grand opening faded, CBAI fell to below the one cent level again.

After nearly touching two cents earlier this month, CBAI has been a great play for traders so far this year and I don't think the volatility is over.

While I'm still a bit sceptical that the cord blood storage service is something that can catch on a massive scale right now, I'm willing to take a chance with some 'night on the town' money and I'm continuing to hold one half of my position long while trading the other half in and out; and I like the sub-one cent prices to buy back in.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.

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Readers Respond: BIEL

Some additional comments regarding BioElectronics:

Vinny,

Not a good sign - TD Ameritrade will not allow buy orders on BIEL. I can sell what I have, but they have discontinued honoring BIEL as a legitimate security.

Mark


VFC's Take: This is, evidently, an ongoing issue as I responded to someone who raised this concern on December 10th of last year.

I cannot attest to the fact that there are trading issues for the BIEL stock at any online brokerage because I've had no trouble buying or selling the stock using Zecco, but I have followed the comments of similar online bloggers and message board posters who have stated that they could sell the stock, but not buy it from their respective broker - a highly suspicious event, in my opinion.

As for some comments that say that the brokerage firms are 'looking out' for their clients by not allowing them to buy BIEL - I'm not buying it; and even if that were the case, just I like I don't like Washington telling me what's best for me in terms of health care and government programs, I don't like a brokerage house telling me what to buy and not to buy based on their own interests. It's for that reason that I've transferred much of my investing cash from Sharebuilder to Zecco.

For those potential investors that would rather rely on their own DD and not the potentially biased views of entities that my have a conflicting financial interest, I would suggest using Zecco to trade - I've never not been able to buy or sell what I want using that company's trading platform.

I do believe, however, that the fact that certain firms are not allowing their customers to purchase shares of BIEL right now has added to the recent downswing of the stock - as the policy has allowed those that want the stock much lower to drop it that much easier. Again, that's all just my opinion.




Hi VFC

Love reading your posts. I must disagree with your opinion on BIEL. The stock has been pumped from a poster on the message boards and the amount of shares outstanding are huge.

In addition, there is a real question on the integrity of the filings for FDA approval.

I would stay away from this stock.


VFC's Take: Thank you for reading and for commenting, respectful disagreement is what discussion is all about.

That being said, I'm still buying for these prices.

BIEL is not just a stock symbol in my book, it's a symbol behind a company that is producing and marketing products that I believe could catch on in the global market place.

I think that a good product will eventually trump and outside manipulation or questionable management decisions.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

More From the Jersey Shore - Snooki and Celsius

It looks like Celsius could become a mainstay at the Jersey Shore.

First we saw J-WoWW giving the calorie-burning drink a try, and now we've got Snooki convinced that Celsius just may be her next hangover cure - but only after she realized that she couldn't get drunk drinking the product.

Crazy as it may be, any publicity from the Jersey Shore crowd can only be good to add to the hype, and I'm with Snooki on this one - Celsius is great for a hangover.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Readers Respond: BIEL, CVM, AGEN

A few comments regarding the recent trading activity of BIEL and CVM:

From Alejandro:

Hi VFC
I agree with you about Biel, I had my 5minutes of panic this week with this stock, But finally I have encouraged myself to do my DD again, and I have found very good signs about the potential of biel. I added some more shares, and I´m waiting to add more, because I think this going to be a patience game. Another stock that I think is a patience game at this instance is CVM, nothing has changed except its price, I´m waiting my target price around the 70s to add more, I think that cvm will hit the 1.5-2 range in the short time with the release of any news... do you think I´m being to much bullish?
Thanks for the brief of biel...
Bye


VFC's Take: Always good to hear from you, Alejandro. I've been adding to my position of BIEL as well and I will continue to do so as long as the stock trades for these depressed levels.

It's a patience game, and the small investor needs to have patience, in my opinion, to stay ahead of the game. The traders and the big boys can move in and out of stocks on a daily basis looking for quick momentum gains, but the small investor should be more concentrated on becoming comfortable in an investment and developing a sound entry and exit strategy for that investment. If it takes a little longer to reach the exit point, then so be it.

As for CVM, I agree to some extent that nothing has changed with the company aside from the declining price, but I think that the facility finally passing validation is a big step forward because it clears the way for Multikine production to begin.

It doesn't look like the trial will begin until the summer of this year, so the stock could remain stagnant for a couple of more months unless we get decent news on another front - maybe from the LEAPS/H1N1 trial at Johns Hopkins.

The LEAPS news (or any other unexpected developments) could cause the price to rise to the $1.50-$2.00 range, although since much of the hype has dies down regarding the swine flu, it's hard to tell how the investing community will react to the news - if it turns out positive.

If the LEAPS trial comes out negative, then I'd expect a price decline and a rush of the infamous riff-raff message board groupies who come and go like a swarm of locusts on the island of Crete in the summer time looking to incite even more hate, uncertainty and confusion. At that point I would add to my position based on the potential of Multikine.

Additionally, if Dendreon's Provenge receives approval from the FDA for the treatment of prostate cancer, then I think a general run in cancer immunotherapy stocks would be in order.

All just my opinion and as always, each investor should do his or her own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL and long CVM.




From Shep:

I'm adding to BIEL too. Can't resist loading up the share count on the cheap...though I'm a bit disappointed in our direction. I've got faith for the future even if it's longer than I originally thought. I think they suffer some management issues that makes things worse.

Hey VFC...what's your new take on AGEN? I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts and outlook on the company now that the dust has settled and it seems to have found a home in the .80 to .90 cent range.


EDIT (from Shep): Sorry...never mind. I see you offered your thoughts on AGEN earlier this month.

VFC's Take: Thanks for the comments, Shep! I know it's tough to watch the BIEL stock price drop, but I'm going to be honest and say that I don't mind it too much. The last time that BIEL traded for less than three cents I did not have enough free cash on hand to buy as much as I wanted to and I see this price decline as a second chance, and I'm taking full advantage.

There are still quite a few non-believers out there regarding the potential of the products, but I'm in the boat that America, if not the world, is moving towards a health consciousness that is unprecedented in recent history. The BioElectronics products can offer an alternative to the liver-damaging Tylenol and kidney and stomach-damaging Ibuprofen.

Not everyone is on board yet, but I for one like to save my liver damage for the Grey Goose, and I won't touch Tylenol for that reason.

Also, as long as the Heidi Montags of the world are out there, then there will be a need for RecoveryRX, ActiPatch's sister product already used to induce healing and reduce swelling after plastic surgery.

I also agree with Shep that there are some management concerns with BioElectronics; these guys remind me of that kid in grade school that could solve calculus equations with his eyes closed but couldn't tie his shoelace or say hello to 'Sweet Suzie Blue Eyes' without drueling all over himself. The product is great, but I think that the FDA stuff could have been handled better. As an investor, however, I'm satisfied with the progress being made in international markets and it's hard to blame the hugely beurocratic process of the US FDA on company management, but when it's time to play you've got to come prepared for the game.

As for AGEN, I see that you found my post from earlier this month regarding that stock. If any positive news from Russia is released, then we could see a bump in price, but for the time being I think that next year will be the year that we could see some real movement, based on the fact that it should now be considered, in my opinion, a Phase II stock.

I do think there is a place for AGEN in any cancer immunotherapy portfolio, as does Mentor Capital, Inc (MNTR).

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL and AGEN.



From Scott regarding BIEL:

BIEL's share structure is concerning. 1.3 billion. They would have to clear 10 million in income to approach a valuation of .07. A lot of overhang out there from the prior run. A reverse split could be in the cards, as they are facing their A/S share limit of 1.5 billion.

Scott


VFC's Take: I agree, and I've also stated this before that the huge amount of authorized shares (and they need to authorize more) is going to be a weight on this stock.

That being said, I'm of the belief that the BioElectronics will gain a foothold in the international market. If some FDA approvals start rolling in and over-the-counter clearance is eventually granted, there will still be plenty of room for the BIEL stock price to move (in my opinion), especially now that it has dropped to under three cents.

I'm keeping an eye on the share count for sure, but I'm not going to throw in the white towel based on those shares just yet because I'm willing to wait a while and see how the product development in the US and around the world goes.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Microsoft Store

An anonymous comment regarding CVM:

Hey Vinnie. I have a few questions on CVM if you don't mind giving your opinion. In the latest report from CVM released today I believe they stated that they anticipate contracting cold fills for revenue after enough batches are successfully made for MK PIII. My question is that if that were the case wouldn't we already be hearing about contracts in the works? I'm assuming contracts involving this kind of money would be set in stone ahead of time along with set dates. The facility will be producing nothing after MK PIII starts on its anticipated summer of this year. I'm hoping this is in the works now since the company has clearly stated it has plans to do so. However if they do not having anything set up by this summer it makes me question if they did the neccessary research that there was a demand for such cold fills and you would think after spending so much money on the facility with cold fill contracts in mind they would have been talking to other companies before validation was even complete. Thanks in advance and any information or thoughts on the matter will help. I'm in the red pretty deep on this one and I need some comfort.

VFC's Take: It is clear that Cel Sci will concentrate soleley on Multikine for the time being, but I would have to believe that someone in the company is concentrating on securing contracts for the cold fill service once the Multikine production is complete.

I wouldn't expect to hear any announcements to such until after the Multikine Phase III trial has started, but that is just my own speculation.

First things first, I would think, but I'm confident that the company knew what it was doing when they went ahead with the construction of the facility with the idea of contracting the cold fill service in mind.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Ultraforeclosure.us

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Briefs: BBI, CBAI, LLBO, SNSS, BIEL

BBI: Blockbuster is on it's last leg, in my opinion, after the stock crashed by thirty three percent on Thursday after a disappointing holiday season - a season that gave the stock a boost last year.

As I've stated before, Blockbuster became a brand that was too in love with itself to keep up with innovation (a la General Motors) and quickly got surpassed by Netflix and Redbox.

In 'Hail Mary' fashion, Blockbuster recently tried to gain an advantage on Netflix by concentrating on a video game-rental-by-mail service to counter Netflix's dominance in the video-by-mail arena, but it's a futile attempt - in my opinion - by Blockbuster because it's a lot easier for Netflix to catch up on the video game stockpile than it would be for Blockbuster to steal consumers from Netflix.

Blockbuster has also offered their own $1 kiosks to counter Redbox in addition to a Video-on-Demand service, but these efforts just re-iterate what's been wrong with the company for years - try to be the innovator instead of offering just more of the same.

Had these moves been made when Blockbuster was the dominant player in DVD rentals, then it would be an entirely different story today.

But just like an out-of-touch politician in Washington, sometimes it's not good enough to just be you; sometimes you've got to stay ahead of the game.

If you don't do that and you're an elected official, you get voted out.

If you don't do that and you're a business, the consumer goes somewhere else.

RIP Blockbuster, barring any miraculous innovation, this company is done.

Disclosure: No position.



CBAI.ob: Shares of Cord Blood America re-entered buy territory, in my opinion, as the stock closed the trading day Thursday at .0135, down 8% from the previous day.

January 22nd marks the opening of the company's Las Vegas facility, an event that Cord Blood hopes will attract quite a few investors. A Thursday press release offered an open invitation to investors and gave the facility's address as:

1857 Helm Drive, Las Vegas 89119, near the city's airport in the Spencer Airport Business Park.

Also on Thursday the company announced that it has contracted has contracted cord blood processing systems from BioE of St. Paul, Minnesota.

If nothing else, it should make a good story seeing how quick this service catches on. Those looking to get in now have a decent entry price, in my opinion, especially if the stock drops even lower.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.



LLBO.pk: On January 13th Lifeline Biotechnologies issued a somewhat vague press release announcing the outcome of an FDA submission for the First Warning System that was filed back in July of 2009.

For those new to Lifeline, the First Warning System is a radiation-free, early detection device for breast cancer. The July, 2009 filing regarded classification of the device.

After reading the PR, I had to get the feeling that the company botched the filing because they got nothing concrete from the FDA - at least not according to the PR - and they are just now hiring a consulting firm to submit for approval.

Now, VFC will never be mistaken for the CEO of a publicly traded biotechnology company, but I have to believe that the hiring of a consulting firm and preparations for an approval filing should have been done long ago, unless Lifeline just wasn't sure what to expect from the FDA.

That being said, I'm still a believer in the technology and I couldn't resist adding some 'night on the town' shares at these prices.

If all goes well, news from the FDA - once the company files - should come later this year and if that news is positive, then the company is in position to start marketing product almost immediately, according to the PR from the 13th.

Patience is key for the small investor, especially when playing the pinks, and I'm interested enough in the potential of FWS to remain long on the stock.

As a radiation free device that can detect early breast cancer, FWS could be a global hit.

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.






SNSS: Sunesis Pharmaceuticals announced on Thursday that enrollment for the Voreloxin Phase Ib/2 trial measuring the effectiveness of the drug when used in combination with cytarabine to treat AML has been completed.

Interim results have been positive, according to published reports, and the company expects to commence a Phase III trial later this year.

SNSS is still a nice speculative play and it's worth picking up a few shares, in my opinion, even after last month's run to over two dollars.

Disclosure: VFC is long SNSS.

Covestor Investment Management

BIEL.pk: As shares of BioElectronics dipped to below three cents this week, I couldn't help but add shares - and then add a few more shares. Immediate volatility aside, I expect to see a pretty good return on that investment later this year, if not sooner.

The opportunity to buy BIEL for between two and three cents reminds me of the steal of an opportunity that I thought I was getting while buying CSUH for .025 (pre-reverse split) in late 2008.

It takes a strong a stomach, and maybe some vodka, to cope with the short term volatility, but the risk/reward at buying for these levels is irresistible, in my opinion, because I can see the ActiPatch and Allay products taking part in the global revolution of health awareness that I think is underway.

Tylenol and Ibuprofen will never go away, but as consumers become more aware of their associated health risks, products like the ActiPatch could gain some nice market share.

I wouldn't count out some more volatility for the short term, and maybe even an additional drop, but the small investor is being given a nice opportunity to add shares or average down, in my opinion, and I'm buying accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Celsius Shows Some Real Growth - 77% Quarter-Over-Quarter

On Thursday morning Celsius Holdings issued a press release announcing that revenue for the fourth quarter of 2009 came in at $2.4 million, a 283% increase over the fourth quarter of 2008 and - more importantly - a 77% increase over the previous quarter.

Additionally, CEO Steve Haley projected in the PR that the company would bring in $25 million in revenue for 2010 and would also become cash-flow break even by the end of the year; both bold and encouraging statements.

With distribution growing at a rapid pace late last year, and with the advertising campaign in full swing during the fourth quarter, it was expected that revenue would also grow in dramatic fashion - and investors weren't disappointed. A 77% gain quarter-over-quarter is definitely a nice finish to 2009 and Thursday's PR announcing the results is an energizing open to 2010.

The company is not yet in the clear, but the revenue increase is evidence that the product is catching on, in my opinion, and slowly becoming a part of what I consider to be a new (and much needed) health revolution in America.

Also of note, the last paragraph in the PR said this:

Celsius Holdings also announced that its common stock has been approved for listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market upon completion of its previously announced planned underwritten secondary public offering.

So it looks like it's the NasdaqCM and not the AMEX; regardless, it'll be nice to see this stock on the big boards and if the company can even come close to duplicating this rate of revenue growth for another quarter or two, then we could be in for another nice run in price.

Let's temper the exuberance for the time being, at least until we see what the first quarter brings us, but it looks like the methodical, brand-building process of Steve Haley - and then later augmented by Carl DeSantis - has come together and positioned Celsius to play with the big dogs and the red bulls.

Long-time Shareholders of Celsius Holdings are off to an exciting start in 2010, and if nothing else, renewed interest to the stock should start rolling in - especially when it hits the big board while demonstrating serious revenue growth.

It's still all about the future with this one.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUHD.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Briefs: CSUH(D), GCKO, GNVC

CSUHD.ob: Celsius Holdings issued a press release on Wednesday announcing that the former Rexall Sundown CFO, Geary Cotton, has joined the Celsius team as the new CFO of the company.

Current (until now) CFO Jan Norelid will remain on board to assist Mr. Cotton with his duties, according to the PR.

The move comes at a time when many investors believe that Celsius is in the midst of a large growth phase as the company looks to trade on the AMEX at some point in the near future.

Investors are waiting for the real news - the numbers from the next couple of quarters - and most bets are already hedged, at least judging by the anemic daily volume of late.

We're at a crucial moment in the history of Celsius Holdings, and I'm betting that the product catches on in a big way. The country is becoming tune with health and fitness more now than at any other point in recent history, in my opinion, and the calorie burning Celsius beverage has the potential to become a huge part of the transformational shift in health consciousness.

It's a given that each new year brings a whole new crowd of 'resolutioners' into the gyms on January 1st, but the amount of people crowding the local Gold's this year has truly been remarkable - including teenagers, the college-aged crowd, adults and those that would take up two seats on an airplane. It's still early in the year and quite a few of the 'resolutioners' are gone by mid-February, but I've never seen the gyms packed like they are this year; Of course, that may have more to do with the new blond at the front desk than it does with a 'fitness revolution.'

But I really think that America is starting to get it - that if we're a laughing stock to anyone it's because we're producing the fattest people on earth with our habits of overindulgence in food and calories. The trend has slowly been shifting healthy, but I think we're starting to get in full swing now.

And as the health kick hits full swing, I think that the Celsius product has been positioned to join the revolution, and that bodes well for shareholders of the company.

I say 'Join the Revolution, Drink Celsius.'

Keep it away from Snooki and J-WoWW, however, those two are hyper enough.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUHD.



GCKO.pk: GeckoSystems International Corporation announced on Wednesday that the company's common stock is now listed under the 'current information' tier of the pink sheets.

The move towards full transparency comes at a time when the company will undoubtedly need to raise additional capital to fund the ongoing elderly care robot trials and eventually commercial production of the robots, if the trials continue to prove successful.

Similar to my concerns about Cord Blood America (CBAI), part of me wonders if the elderly care robot idea is a little bit before its time, but even if it is, buying shares of the company for a couple of pennies now with the intention to hold for the long term (and maybe trade in and out a bit) could pay off further on down the road.

The idea of health care robots has been garnering increased attention from media outlets recently, and any significant hype could run the GCKO share price past the highs of a couple of months ago when the stock ran to seven cents (or so).

Because of Japan's love of gizmos, something tells me that that society will see these robots before America does.

Either way, I still think that we'll see at least a double out of this stock at some point this year, barring any setbacks in the elderly care trials.

Disclosure: VFC is long GCKO.

Ab Circle Pro

GNVC: Shares of GenVec have been on the rise this week after the company announced a deal with Novartis to develop a hearing-loss treatment.

The deal could be worth as much as $214 million, according to published reports. The intial upfront payment to GenVec from Novartis is $5 million, and Novartis also purchased $2 million of GNVC common stock.

The partnership with Novartis is huge for a small company like GenVec, but the hearing-loss treatment, still in pre-clinical stages, is a long ways off from market.

Congrats to those that have been along for the GNVC ride - for those looking to get in, I'd say watch the price action and get back in on any dips, especially if we end up seeing sub $2 again.

Disclosure: No position.




Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Briefs: TTNP, SIGA, CVM

MOVED TO:  http://vfcsstockhouse.com/blog/article/-briefs-ttnp-siga-cvm


Personal Wine Valentines 2010 Gruet 125x125

Briefs: BIEL, CSUH, CBAI

BIEL.pk: Shares of BioElectronics Corp. closed down by another thirteen percent on Tuesday after the company issued a morning press release announcing that paperwork had been filed with the US FDA requesting a re-classification of the device behind the ActiPatch and Allay products to Class II from Class III.

The re-classification to Class II - a classification reserved for devices with a superior safety profile - would allow BioElectronics to market ActiPatch and Allay on an over-the-counter (OTC) basis in the United States.

The device was granted Class III status in 2002.

BioElectronics added that the plan is to file a Pre-Marketing Approval (PMA) with the FDA, a measure that would protect the technology behind the device from potential competitors.

According to Joe Noel's blog, the reason for the delay in filing for re-classification is due to the fact that the company wanted to include a new study showing that the device does not create enough heat to potentially harm the person using it - a nice tidbit of information that should have been included in the PR, in my opinion.

Of note, the PR also stated that the re-classification and PMA applications are independent of the already existing marketing applications under review by the FDA, which are still pending. That fact was also confirmed by Joe Noel on his website.

The recent drop in price is due to a couple of factors, in my opinion. There are those investors out there that have come to the conclusion that re-classification and potential OTC approval is a little bit further off than originally thought, and many of those investors have most likely bailed looking for quicker returns over the short term.

I also get the feeling that there is some manipulation going on behind the scenes - a coordinated effort to drop the price of the stock. There has been no devastating news from BioElectronics to cause the extreme price drop over the past couple of months, yet the riff-raff have flooded the BIEL message boards during the price decline (especially over the past week) creating a mood of panic, uncertainty and fear for BIEL shareholders.

While those that have done their DD and are confident in the future potential of the BioElectronics products will add shares on this dip, those that are less confident in their DD and/or have no stomach for volatility will give up their shares and run away due to the increased uncertainty playing out before them on the message boards.

As always I emphasize - an investment should not be based on what you read on a message board, stock blog or even an established investing website; your investment should be based on your own DD and what you foresee the future bringing for a particular company and its stock.

I continue to believe in the potential of ActiPatch and Allay as products that will be received as a global alternative to Tylenol and Ibuprofen, which have both been recently becoming exposed as potential health risks.

Today's press release indicates that ultimate OTC approval in the US may come a little later than previously believed, but the small investor has patience and time to wait.

Additionally, the fact that the new filings are independent of the pending marketing application means that news could still come at any time. The company undoubtedly hoped to have received re-classification in an 'omni-domni' and immediate fashion from the FDA, but the fact that we have to wait a while does not change anything, in my opinion, except timeframe - not that big a deal unless you were hoping for a quick payday. Remember, the small investor can't be greedy, we've got to be patient.

I'm adding all I can at these levels - and the lower the stock drops, the more shares I will add, barring any unforseen bad news that would lead me to believe that ActiPatch and Allay have no chance at US OTC approval.

While I understand the sentiment of those that can't sleep because their stocks drop, I say take advantage of the in stocks that you like because later on down the road the stomach-wrenching buying could pay off in a big way.

Look how good those that added at the market bottom last March have done.

The BioElectronics story is still playing out, and although product advancement in the US is progressing slower than expected, the international progress is moving along as planned in the first year of the company's growth phase.

As always, each investor should invest based on their own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



CSUHD.ob: Celsius Holdings issued a PR on Tuesday announcing additional distribution in Ohio and Connecticut.

In Ohio, Marc's will carry both green tea flavors of the calorie-burning beverage (Raspberry/Acai and Peach-Mango) in addition to the Sparkling Orange flavor. The same selection will be available in XPECTS in Connecticut.

Also of note, the Celsius brand awareness is expanding. Tuesday was the first day that I heard the Celsius radio ad on SiriusXM's Mad Dog Radio channel, an all-sports channel hosted by "The Mad Dog" Chris Russo; a nice addition to the Celsius advertising lineup, in my opinion.

Additionally, it looks like the cast of the 'Jersey Shore' was recently turned onto Celsius, as J-WoWW was spotted giving the drink a try:



As much as I'd like to see the Celsius brand grow, I don't think anyone from the cast of that program needs an energy boost; they're hyper enough. And on that note, don't you love how everyone from Jersey is in denying that 'Jersey Shore' is actually pretty realistic?

Back to the point, however - more press and more distribution for the growing Celsius brand is always a good thing for shareholders.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUHD.



CBAI.ob: It's been a wild ride for Cord Blood America this month, leading into the January 22nd grand opening of the company's Las Vegas facility. Traders playing the volatility have had a field day with the stock and long term investors looking to add on the dips have also had ample opportunity to do so.

I'm not yet fully convinced that Cord Blood will be a long term winner, so I'm straddling the fence by holding half of my position for the long haul and trading the other half into the volatility. The reason for my not fully committing for the long term is that I'm not yet sure that the 'stem cell bank' service is not a little bit ahead of its time, especially in a time of global financial correction.

That being said, it's the worth the risk - in my opinion - because it's always a good idea for the small investor to get in on the next big thing before it becomes the next big thing - especially when it can be done with 'night on the town' money.

Cord Blood announced on Tuesday that it has signed another contract, this time with the Center for Stem Cell Awareness, who - according to the press release - will sell collection and storage services in Florida.

This company is becoming a little bit more 'real' than I thought it would leading into the grand opening date and I'm very interested to see just how quickly this service catches on.

Disclosure: VFC is long CBAI.



Monday, January 18, 2010

Readers Respond: SPNG, MSBT

SPNG.pk: A comment from Mark regarding SpongeTech Delivery Systems Inc.:

Vinny,

Still holding SPNG? The Mets are now suing them for bouncing 400k in checks. This is really starting to smell bad.

Mark


VFC's Take: I'm still holding shares of SPNG and I will continue to do so to see how the whole story plays out. This is strictly a 'night on the town' stock at this point, but as long as the products are still selling I think that the share price has the potential to rise after the financial situation plays out - but I emphasize that nothing other than vodka money should be in this stock right now, especially as the negative press picks up.

As for the Mets, the stink on SpongTech is growing, but who the heck are the Wilpons to comment on anyone's management of finances after the Mets' owners lost half a billion (allegedly) in the Madoff mess, not to mention the millions in losses racked up by the Mets' charities as a result of the ponzi scheme? If there is any business in America right now that is more in shambles than SpongeTech, it is the New York Mets.

The bounced checks are news, however, and another reason why only 'night on the town' money should be in SpongeTech.

I'm still holding onto my shares, but I'm also trying to day trade between three and five cents - the current price range of the stock - but it's been hit or miss as to whether or not my limit orders take.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNG and is a Mets fan.





MSBT.ob: A few comments regarding MedaSorb Technologies:

Hello Vinny,
Hey in light of MSBT's presentation on 1-12-9 in San Fran, I listened to the 20 minutes also looked at the slide show.As far as I can see everything seems to be going as scheduled, the enrollment however might be somewhat slow, seeing how they have enrolled only 6 since mid November..The device seems to be performing as wanted..My question's are do you see anything that I might be missing that would make you believe that their device isn't meeting expectations? Also I feel that European approval first vs FDA approval is a good thing, solely based on sheer financial numbers? I'm not sure a 20% drop today was warranted..
Your thoughts are appreciated!!

Sorry meant 1-12-10..
Also here is the link

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/confRegistration.zhtml?ticker=MSBT&item_id=ew,2674413,1,190583,949513,1420772,2#

Francisco


Hey Vinny,

Does MSBT have a legitimate chance of getting CE approcval? I have read the process for CE approval. The process is only 3-6 weeks to find out if you have approval. So, I would assume that as soon as the results are in (DEPENDING ON RESULTS) the CE Approval could be quick. I am not anticipating results until June, so I think the price will drop. I am hoping to get in at .10, I still am waiting, just watched it at .13. Thanks for your help.


Are we looking at more dilution for MSBT.OB. Looks like insiders picked up 2 million in options, a good sign, but will it add small dilution in the short term? I think so. Thanks for all you do. Daniel

VFC's Take: While enrollment has been pretty slow, I still believe that CytoSorb has a decent shot of success in treating severe sepsis - based on what we have seen so far.

I expect that we will see final trial results by the end of the second quarter and - if successful - European approval should come by the end of 2010.

Leading into these timeframes I think that we'll see the one dollar mark - a rise on anticipation of the results - although I fully expect the recent volatility to continue as we begin to see some higher highs.

A dip to ten cents or so is not out of the question, in my opinion, but I wouldn't fully sit on the sidelines waiting for that price; I'd add some shares while the stock is trading in the teens and then average down should we see ten cents again.

Speculation alone could cause MSBT to spike back into the mid to high twenties fairly quickly, and you don't want to be on the sidelines to take advantage of a move like that.

Until results are released, MSBT continues to be a trader's play and the opportunities to play the dips and spikes should remain for at least a couple of more months, in my opinion, offering investors a nice return while we're sitting around waiting.

As for dilution and employee options - I get the feeling that the insiders think that CytoSorb is going to be a success and they are setting themselves up accordingly. However, as a small investor I am prepared to sell most - if not all - of my shares into the spike after positive results are announced (if the results are positive) because I think that we'll see significant dilution at that point.

As always, this is all just my opinion and each investor should do their own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.


Monday, January 11, 2010

Briefs: GNBT, VNDA, TTNP, EPCT, LLBO, BIEL

GNBT: Shares of Generex Biotechnology Corporation traded higher by over ten percent on Monday when the company announced that an agreement had been reached with a major US pharmacy chain to market Crave-NX, Generex's 7-day diet aid spray.

The name of the "major US pharmacy chain" was withheld from the press release, but my speculation would leave me to believe that CVS is the one - the 7,000 locations noted in the PR line up with the numbers of CVS stores.

Crave-NX, which suppresses appetite, could generate significant revenue for Generex as the pipeline advances, which includes Oral-Lyn, a Phase III insulin spray for diabetics that has already been approved by the FDA for emergency use.

Full approval could come as early as late 2010, based on when the Phase III trial concludes and results are released.

The Crave-NX news is a welcomed event for investors and I continue to believe that the GNBT stock will march towards the one dollar mark during the first quarter of this year.

Positive Oral-Lyn data would push the price even higher, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

Cough and Cold products at AmericaRx.com

VNDA: Vanda Pharmaceuticals announced on Monday that Fanapt (Iloperidone), the company's schizophrenia drug that will be marketed and distributed by Novartis, has launched in the United States.

The VNDA share price remained stagnant on the news, but with pharmaceutical powerhouse Novartis distributing Fanapt, the potential is there for large first year sales numbers in a schizophrenia market that has the lowest selling drug still raking in a billion dollars of sales a year.

The Fanapt launch is also welcome news to Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP.pk) and its shareholders. Titan will receive, through a long-existing licensing agreement, between eight and ten percent of Fanapt sales.

Disclosure: Long TTNP, no position VNDA.



EPCT: Shares of Epicept rallied to ninety cents on Monday after the company finally announced a partner for the marketing and distribution of Ceplene in Europe.

According to Monday's press release, Meda AB will market Ceplene in Europe, Japan, China and Australia. Epicept will receive an immediate cash infusion of $3 million, according to the agreement, and an additional $2 million upon the launch of Ceplene in the first major European market, expected to be later this year.

Epicept will also receive a double digit royalty of net sales and can receive additional milestone payments if/when certain thresholds are met. The "double digit" comment leaves a lot of room for interpretation, but usually when a company lists royalties as in the "double digits", it means mid to low teens, in my opinion.

It took a very long time for Epicept to get this deal finalized, but now that it is a done deal, investors - who were decently rewarded on Monday - can now look towards revenue growth on Ceplene sales and the filing for approval with the US FDA that should take place later this year.

As readers of VFC's Stock House know, I bailed on the stock late last year to put the money elsewhere, but congrats to those that held onto the stock - although I ahve to admit that I'm disappointed that the share price did not reach higher than ninety cents.

While I do believe that EPCT will trade for over a dollar in short time, I think that the relatively modest gains on Monday are due to a somewhat negative perception of the agreement by investors.

Had I still held shares of EPCT, I would have sold into the spike and moved on - I think there are a lot better speculative plays still out there with the potential to realize higher percentage gains than EPCT over the short to mid term.

Disclosure: No position.

Flower.com

LLBO.pk: Shares of Lifeline Biotechnologies traded higher by twenty percent on no news Monday as investors are most likely anticipating news from the FDA regarding the classification of the company's 'First Warning System', a radiation-free system designed to detect breast cancer in the early stages.

It has been prviously speculated that the FDA would render the classification decision in the first half of January.

Lifeline has the potential to garner a few headlines in the near future, based on the fact that breast cancer and the dangers of radiation have already made recent headlines.

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.pk.

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BIEL.pk: BioElectronics is also awaiting classification news from the FDA, and the stock traded down to nearly four cents on Monday when no news was released.

While I recognize the risks of a further short term drop in price if investors get nervous while anticipating news (or lack of it) from the FDA and decide to bail out, I couldn't resist adding to my position for just over four cents.

I think that eventually BIEL's products, as safe and effective alternatives to Tylenol and Ibuprofen (and their associated health risks), will win over the FDA at a time when international sales should already be increasing.

It won't be too long, in my opinion, before BIEL will be looked back upon as a steal for four cents.

The products are just too good.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

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