Briefs: CVM, CSUH - And Thanksgiving Thoughts

CVM: In response to some feedback from readers regarding my previous post abou Cel Sci Corp., I want to emphasize that the "residents of Whoville" that I referred to in that post include the entire class of investor that had previously been inclined to give up a portion (or all) of their shares each and every time Feuerstein wrote a negative piece about the company.

It's my opinion that either potential and existing investors are starting to see right through the biotech blogger's games (which, in my opinion, is either a personal vendetta or a quest for clicks) and/or the shorts and stock manipulators have not been able to play their games quite so freely of late.

Additionally, I did not give mention to an MIT "Technology Review published Tuesday morning. The positive review on LEAPS and Cel Sci is what most likely incited another 'hate Cel Sci' article from TheStreet.com - in my opinion.

As always, each investor should do their own DD and invest accordingly. By no means should anyone buy or sell a stock based on my views, the views of the TheStreet.com's biotech blog or what they read on the message board. Solid DD allows an investor to hold with confidence through the storm (volatility) that is biotech investing. (However, that's not to say that I don't recommend having some 'trading shares' on hand to play the volatility.)

I'll be looking forward to some pending fourth quarter news updates from Cel Sci, the next of which should be either the validation of the Baltimore area manufacturing facility or an update on the Johns Hopkins LEAPS trial.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



CSUH.ob: The recently battered stock of Celsius Holdings limps into the holiday season trading at the same level that it did about five months ago, before high volatility led to a series of fairly significant spikes and dips based on speculation and potential for the future.

The Celsius story is still unwinding, although it looks as if many impatient (live for today and tomorrow) investors bailed on news of significant dilution and that the company would also undertake a 20:1 reverse split in preparation for a move to the AMEX.

I continue to maintain that it is far too early to judge the success of this company and its product - the world's first calorie burning beverage - and as CEO Steve Haley mentioned many times before, 2010 should be one of huge growth for Celsius.

In my opinion, the fact that the company is even entertaining a move to the big boards at this point is a telling sign that distribution will be in place by then to support a growing ad campaign and - this is the most important factor - growing revenues.

Once potential consumers - who are trending towards healthier beverages anyway - key into the fact that Celsius is not 'just another energy drink', growth could hit with a boom and sales revenue should follow.

In the meantime, long term-minded shareholders are chomping at the bit to purchase the CSUH stock for levels that could be considered a speculative discount.

The volatility is far from over, in my opinion, and if sales revenues cannot support the post-split stock price, then the slide in price could continue.

I would base additional buys based on your own opinion of how quickly sales numbers can grow; if you're in the boat that sales numbers will grow significantly enough in the fourth quarter of this year to support the immediate post-split price, then adding shares now would seem like a good deal.

If you're in the boat that sees another quarter or two of growing distribution before significant sales growth kicks in, then I'd wait until post-split to add shares.

I think that Haley is setting this company up for a big 2010; and based on the CEO's previous comments, I expect to see 'full distribution' by March.

In my opinion, if you're speculating on the success of the product and the company, you want to be in well before that point.

I may add a small amount of shares at the current prices, but I'm mainly going to wait and judge the post-split trading action before adding much more. One thing is for certain, if sales numbers cannot support the market cap when/if the company hits the AMEX, then that opens up the possibility that the shorts can have a field day with the stock.

It all comes down to the consumer. We can all speculate on the future until we're blue in the face, but it's the consumer that has the power to make or break this stock.

I'm a fan of the product; it works, it's backed by clinical studies and I've seen people who try get hooked on it and Steve Haley has slowly and methodically built this story from the ground up - therefor, I'm speculating that this company will ultimately become a nice success story and I will hold/add shares accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, I appreciate the readership, the comments and the thoughts that are brought to this board. Amid the riff-raff that sometimes join us, for the most part their are honest, hard working investors out there that always bring something to the table and I think that we are all more informed investors because of it.

On the day of Thanks, let's also try and remember those in our own country and all over the world who are far less fortunate than we are - the unemployment lines are long, and wars, starvation, guerrilla actions and diseases are claiming the lives of innocent people everywhere as we settle around the turkey table with our own family and friends for the holidays.

As you raise the glass to offer a toast on Thanksgiving Day, offer at least a silent shout out to those who are not so lucky to even have the means to put food on the table, let alone buy shares in a company.

Happy Thanksgiving, all, from VFC's Stock House.

You guys make this fun.

Briefs: CVM

CVM: Shares of Cel Sci Corp. continued to hover right around the $1.30 mark even after TheStreet.com's infamous biotech blogger thrust his most recent blogging salvo at Cel Sci in an attempt to keep his ongoing vendetta against the company alive - for reasons that are still yet to be known.

We can only speculate as to why Feuerstein spends so much time attempting to attack Cel Sci, but in my opinion, the reasons range from hooking up his friends who are either short the stock and looking to cover and/or hooking up his boys that may want in on a good thing. Additionally, any article regarding Cel Sci will undoubtedly draw many 'hits' to his blog - and those hits are very important for advertising revenue when your living is blogging; hence the need to both stretch out one article over multiple pages (one reader then accounts for multiple hits) and the need to make sure that a Cel Sci article is somehow attached to another published article that has nothing to do with Cel Sci. Pretty slick, I guess the past few days will make up for the lost 'clicks' due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

As for what's important - Cel Sci - news regarding the validation of the Baltimore area manufacturing facility has to be imminent, when considering the previous time frames announced by the company; and once the facility is 'good to go', I would expect an announcement stating that the long-awaited and much-anticipated Multikine Phase III trial is finally set to begin.

Any updates from the Johns Hopkins LEAPS/H1N1 trial would be an added bonus, in my opinion.

The holiday season is ripe, and regardless of the amount of time that the grinch is spending trying to ruin the holiday cheer for shareholders of Cel Sci, it looks like the residents of Whoville are starting to ignore the incessant and highly predictable griping of the grinch.

In my opinion, a few shares of CVM as stocking stuffers for this holiday season could pay off very well down the road - based on the potential of Multikine and LEAPS.

As always, each investor should do his or her own DD and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Briefs: SIGA

SIGA: Shares of Siga Technologies, Inc. broke the eight dollar mark Tuesday afternoon on anticipation of the possibility that some big government orders could be imminent.

BioMedReports issued a mid-day trade alert on Tuesday, alerting readers that the recent price action of the SIGA stock could indicate that news is pending.

If news hits that the government has in fact placed a big order with SIGA, the stock could move fairly significantly as shorts cover and new investors buy in based on the possibility of additional orders from the government.

While I'm not an owner of the SIGA stock, I am the owner of some call options that I will hold in anticipation of news.

If an announcement of government orders does hit - SIGA shareholders may enjoy a very happy holiday season.

I don't suggest chasing a stock without doing the proper DD, but when the government likes a company - that company could turn out to do very well in the future as additional government orders becomes an immediate possibility.

Keep an eye on SIGA.

Disclosure: No position in SIGA, long some call options.

Readers Respond: AGEN

With Antigenics back in the news after the EMEA officially recommended against approving the company's kidney cancer vaccine (Oncophage) in Europe - followed by the subsequent withdrawal of the approval application by Antigenics - a few readers of VFC's Stock House have requested comment.

An email From J.B.:

Well, the news is now official re Oncophage in Europe. What do you think the "formalization" of this decision will do to AGEN now? Appreciate your insight, candor and humor.

J.B.

From Anonymous:

Hey VFC, why haven`t you comment on AGEN? This stock just keeps falling, and we who follow your website would appreciate an update on this stock you have been recomending for some quite time. Thanks.

From Playtrader:

Just hold your AGEN. This happens a lot. Just put it on the back burner for a while and before your know it, it comes raging back to life. It takes a lot of intestinal fortitude and some big kahunas to play the market.



VFC's Take: I appreciate the comments. Please keep in mind that I attempt to keep up on all the stocks that I cover or mention, but this blog - and stock investing in general - is a hobby of mine and sometimes I'm pressed for time. I try to get to all the emails, comments and updates that i can, but I can't get to all of them, all the time; but I do appreciate the feedback, comments, questions and stock tips. Keep them coming!

That being said, here are a few of my latest posts regarding AGEN since the EMEA negative vote sent the stock spiraling downward:

Long Term Potential of AGEN is Still Alive
Biotech Sector Pullback
Cancer Immunotherapy, The Next Big Thing For Cancer Treatment
Antigenics: The Aftermath
Antigenics to Anticipate a Negative Opinion Regarding Oncophage Approval in Europe

As I've mentioned in the above posts, my long term opinion of AGEN has not shifted, although I no longer believe that the short term potential is as great as it was before the European news hit.

After it became apparent that Oncophage had no immediate future in Europe, along with indications that news regarding a launch in Russia was not imminent, I stated that AGEN would move to the 'Phase II' section of my portfolio alongside such stocks as PPMD, PCYC and KERX.

News from the Phase II glioma trial has been encouraging and I also continue to believe that Oncophage still has a future in treating kidney cancer, based on the subset of patients that received the treatment earlier along in the progression of the cancer; but it is a matter of whether the company will be able to secure enough financing to conduct the additional Phase III trial that may be required for approval in the United States or Europe.

Short term, QS-21 can potentially move the stock - although not to extreme levels - and if Oncophage ever gets off the ground in Russia, then I think that AGEN may get a new lease on life. Many investors do not predict any serious revenue being generated from sales in Russia, but I tend to believe that medical tourism and rich Russians and Western Europeans looking for alternative treatments could find solace in Russia - which would be the only country in the world currently offering a cancer vaccine such as Oncophage as a treatment.

Additionally, evidence from a subset of the Oncophage Phase III trial shows that the treatment works effectively on those who received it at earlier stages of disease progression (that is the subset on which the Russian medical authorities approved); and that evidence falls in line with what I consider to be common sense - if an immunotherapeutic agent is used to boost an immune system, it only makes sense that it will work better if it is used on an immune system before it is degraded by chemo, radiation and extremely progressed cancer.

Just my opinion - but I believe that future trials will allow these cancer immunotherapeutic treatments to be used on patients that still have an immune system in tact and the results will then be much more favorable to the treatments.

It's been no secret here that I believe that cancer immunotherapy treatment is the next big thing in cancer treatment, and AGEN - in my opinion - has much to offer to that transformation of care; hence the fact that I will take advantage of the dip in the stock price to add shares to my long term portfolio.

In stock investing (especially when dealing with highly speculative biotechs) you've got to be able to take the dips as well as the spikes - but you've also got to be confident in your DD to be able to stomach the dips.

If you're a patient investor with a long term outlook, then AGEN is still a decent pick - in my opinion. Those looking to make their huge gains overnight - I wouldn't consider AGEN having the same short term potential that it carried a few months ago, although there is the chance that short to mid term gains can be had with the right news.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

Readers Respond: MHAN, CABL

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



MHAN: A comment regarding Manhattan Pharmaceuticals:

What is your take on MHAN? They put out a 10-Q on Monday and the volume hit 1 million shares, but not much price movement. My reading of the 10-Q suggests any revenues from Hedrin have been pushed to next fall. So was Monday a sell off, or am I reading something wrong?

VFC's Take: I agree with your reading of the 10-Q; that document, and previous announcements by the company have indicated that Hedrin could receive FDA approval some time in the first half of next year. If that is the case - and the FDA does ultimately approve the product - then the time frame of expecting revenues by fall of 2010 is realistic.

Before that time, however, the company is going to need cash to survive. Although the 10-Q mentioned the possibility of licensing some of its products (most likely those acquired through the recent merger with Ariston), it's just as possible that additional dilution could be coming our way, so I'm going to wait and see how that scenario plays out before adding to my position - unless the stock dips to below five cents, at which point I'll add regardless.

Since we're not looking at imminent FDA approval, I see another dip below five cents as a possibility before an upturn in anticipation of possible trial/FDA news early next year.

Also, for those new to MHAN, keep in mind that Manhattan only has rights to Hedrin (a pesticide-free treatment for head lice) in North America. The company has no claim to overseas sales of the product.

For the short term, I'll continue to hold this stock, but I'll add if it dips low enough.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHAN.



CABL: A comment from Martin regarding China Cablecom Holdings, Ltd.:

Hi VFC!
I came across a Chinese stock, CABL and it seems very undervalued right now.

What are your thoughts about it? They're a cable company, earnings in about two weeks, good EPS so far this year and growing number of clients. They also bought back debt, they're in good shape IMO.

I really don't understand why this stock is so low.. I'm thinking about investing in it to gain back my CSUH losses (I sold in a panic because I had lost a lot already)

VFC's Take: My first comment would be to differentiate any investment in CABL from a CSUH loss. From my experience, when you start looking at an investment "to make up for" losses in another stock, that could start getting us into trouble. While diversification is key, each and every investment should be independent of each other and each should come with its own entry and exit strategy -in my opinion.

Regarding China Cablecom Holdings, while I definitely see potential in the stock - especially with the hype of increased revenues and subscribers leading into the December earnings report - I'm hesitant to jump in right now because I know absolutely nothing about the Chinese cable market and I'm also sceptical about business practices over there; sceptical enough to where I would have to consider any investment into a Chinese company as a 'trade play' and not a long term growth investment. How do I know that subscriber growth is not the result of some suit kicking down doors telling people that they're now subscribers? We know what the Chinese Government's version of 'free' means.

That's just my opinion and I know there are many that disagree.

That being said, I'll buy into American companies investing in China because they have to answer to us at the end of the day, and just have to 'pay due' to the Chinese Government.

But back to the CABL stock, if current investors are really that high on the upcoming earnings release, then a short term spike is possible. I wouldn't go 'all-in' with this one; if the stock attracts you then use about half of what you'd want in the stock for an 'up-front' buy and then try to average down. If the earnings incite a run-up in price as some are predicting, then you won't miss the boat - but you're also protected if the stock continues to decline in price.

Judging by the current hype around the stock, if earnings aren't terrific then some impatient players are likely to bail out and move on. Remember, the same thing happened with CSUH when third quarter earnings came in below estimates; those in for the short term bailed and the stock sank as a result.

The same could happen to CABL.

Just my opinion.

In short, I definitely see the short and long term potential of the company and its stock, but I would say proceed with caution - as with any investment.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: Feuerstein's Comments regarding CVM, BIEL

An anonymous comment regarding Feuerstein's latest comments on CVM

Have you seen the newest article from AF?

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10629106/1/biotech-stock-mailbag-fda-playbook.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Someone asked a question about DSCO and CERS and he went out of his way to say CVM is full of bull. Notice he didn't say a word abou their work with Johns Hopkins or their new facility. Its like he goes out of his way to drive the stock down. I really question this guy's motive.

VFC's Take: I agree, and as I've stated before, I believe that Feuerstein operates with motives other than simply reporting the news and commenting on it.

His blog posts have appeared with suspicious timing, in my opinion, and the fact that when he did go positive on a stock (BDSI), it was when a hedge fund was looking to exit the stock and surely benefited from the higher price that resulted from 'TheStreet.com' buy recommendation.

Coming from another angle, however, there's no doubt that Feuerstein's day job of blogging for the 'TheStreet.com' benefits anytime he mentions a popular stock because it draws viewers to his page. At the end of the day, he needs to attract readers to keep his job as top biotech blogger, so I think that stocks like DNDN, CVM and BIEL (among many others) will be mentioned as much as he can fit them into a blog post in an effort to draw as many viewers as he can.

After all, the man's gotta eat.

I noticed that I get a lot more viewership to my own blog when I post about a hot stock, that's what keyed me on to Feuerstein's game.

Another neat trick that he does to pump his 'clicks' statistics is making a one or two page blog post into an eight page ordeal. You read about a paragraph and a half of his article before having to click to the next page. All those clicks count as a click even when it's just one viewer clicking eight times to read one article, I'd presume.

Regarding the article (BIEL was also included in the most recent), I don't read his stuff anymore unless someone posts it on a message board. I've rarely felt that I got an un-biased view of a company or a stock from his blog postings and since I feel that 'TheStreet.com' has an agenda different than my own, I don't give them the clicks - especially not eight of them.

Manipulation can control the day to day price action of a stock, but overall, a good company and a good product combined with an investor's own DD will win out.

And as the reader who posted this comment mentioned - you can't have a conversation about CVM without including the ongoing Johns Hopkins study; any study being conducted in conjunction with JH gives instant credibility to that study.

More than likely, Feuerstein was trying to put a subtle CVM bash in that article, but he was also undoubtedly looking for a few clicks to his blog.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Readers Respond: CSUH Financing Fears (Again)

To be fair, I'll address the recent Celsius financing again this week, but this is a dead horse at this point.

Either you believe in the company and the product or you don't. VFC's Stock House is not the CSUH Yahoo!

Message Board where the same one or two people use multiple IDs to beat the same issue into submission over and over again. I like to entertain both sides of the story here, so I'll give fair time to any oppossing views - but the same old rumbo-jumbo isn't going to cut it.

It's time to come up with something new. Here's another one from Scott:

VFC,

I'm beginning to believe that you don't understand finance. I don't want to believe that, but your use of allegories in substitution for mathematical facts is leading me to that conclusion.

This is not "fear of dilution" as you say, it is real, hardcore dilution. Not a threat, real honest to goodness, in the flesh dilution. Now, how does the investor protect himself from losing the value of his/her original investment, if he believes so strongly in the future of Celsius?

You must match each round of dilution. In this case, you would have to buy 25% more stock when the stock drops due to a 25% dilution, so that your original investment remains whole. So, if you want to keep pace with the last month's "financing deals", double down to match Carl and then add another 25% to that to match the registration offering. Now you are even, in shares anyway.

Just saying that you don't get scared when financing deals come along does not let your readers know what is happening to their investment. I hope I cleared this up for some people. That is the only reason I've been posting on CSUH.

Good luck to all invested, like most people, I love an underdog story.

Scott M

VFC's Take:

Scott, is it March already?

When dilution occurs, then potential profits are also diluted - we got that. That's obvious.

The point is, if the company can grow a lot more and a lot faster with the influx of cash now, then today's dilutive effect could turn out to be a wash in the long run; because let's face it, without money to advertise and raise awareness, then Celsius goes nowhere; especially if one of the big boys in the beverage industry comes up with their own version of Celsius (not talking Enviga) and immediately has that product at 'full distribution'. I think that is highly possible and I think that is why Haley is pushing to make a big splash now.

In that scenario, if Haley decides to go the status quo and not dilute, the shareholder would be happy to know that the value of their shares was not diluted - but they'd be pretty disappointed if Celsius trickled along and allowed one of the big boys to make their big splash first. Then the value of an investment would drop with the stock.

However, if as a result of the dilution the company is able to grow on a massive scale - a scale a lot higher than would have been allowed without the funds raised by dilution - then the dilutive effect turns into a wash because growth will have reached levels not possible without the money raised.

Of course, we're speaking hypotheticals.

It's like the Obama Adminstration claiming that they 'saved and created' jobs.

I happen to believe that an investor's original investment will actually end up being worth more down the road as a result of the dilution than it would have had the dilution not occurred. Why?

Because I think that it's imperative that Celsius become a household name as soon as possible, before one of the big boys comes up with their own version of Celsius - and not Enviga, one that actually catches on.

So, yes, Scott's mathematical equations for the dilutive effect are spot on - but here's one thing that a math equation cannot account for: The fact that the dilution allows for more growth than would have been there without it.

I'm not a tree kinda guy, I look past the tree and see the forest.

Now, if Steve Haley and the board were to start using the funds raised through this dilution to buy house boats and head to Scores instead of growing the company, then I'd be worried; OR if dilutive deals were to continue AFTER the product has become a success and the company no longer needed to dilute, then I'd be gone.

So far, that hasn't been the case.

In my opinion, Haley has plans for this money - plans that will allow Celsius to grow to a higher level more quickly than would have been possible without the dilution. So, I emphasize again - if the dilution allows the company to bank more profits at a quicker rate, then an investor's investment that looks diluted today - could be worth more down the road than what it would have with less and slower growth.

Is the ante upped right now? Yes.

But if you don't take risk, you don't get results.

Right now, I repeat, it all depends on how Steve Haley spends this money and how well Celsius is received in the market place.

I also emphasize that if you're an investor that has no stomach for risk and dilution, then you've got to stay away from speculative stocks.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Readers Respond: CPYE, OVIT

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



CPYE.ob: An email from Conrad regarding Conspiracy Entertainment:

Hi There,
I wanted to thank you for your well reasoned thoughts and patience with all the different investors. I have followed you for a few months and made decisions which have been good - CSUH, MSBT, CVM and not so great BDSI, but it has only been around 4 months so they can all turn around for the better or worse..

I did want your thoughts on a little company - CPYE. It seems to fit your bill and I think has some good potential.

I am definitely looking for some more of your thoughts on companies that are still in the single digit penny range.

Best,
Conrad

VFC's Take: I like the portfolio - holds a lot of potential. Celsius should hit 'full distribution' in 2010 and I like the prospects of that product catching on with the right advertising supporting it.

Hang in there with BDSI, in my opinion; once the Onsolis sales numbers start rolling in and/or we get an update on the pipeline, that stock should well recover.

As for CPYE, I do see some potential with the stock and it passes my "smell test" of being a valid speculative play with some potential, but with that being said, I personally tend to shy away from 'video game' stocks.

In my opinion, it's a fiercely competitive market and a company can really only wrack up significant sales numbers if it were to release multiple hits. I'm not a video game guy and I know very little about that industry or the consumer trends in that sector; and I have no idea of what would constitute a potential hit game, so like I said - I tend to stay away.

If you ask VFC about video games, I'd take Pong, Asteroids, or anything else on my Atari 2600 and be happy with it.

Evidently there are high hopes for Conspiracy's Wii Firefighter game and there are up to fourteen additional games due to be released in the coming year, so the potential to generate significant sales numbers may be there.

I'll leave this one for the gamers.

Disclosure: No position.





OVIT.pk: A comment from Alejandro regarding OncoVista Innovative Therapies, Inc.:

Hi Vfc
I would like to know your take with OVIT.
Thank you very much

Good luck

VFC's Take: OVIT definitely passes the VFC 'smell test' as an early stage, speculative biotech play - especially while the stock is trading for about fifteen cents with a market cap of three million.

Although not having a product beyond the Phase II stage, OncoVista is already pulling in revenues from sales of AdnaGen in Europe. AdnaGen is a patented cancer diagnostics kit that is used for the detection of circulating tumor cells in patients with breast, colon, ovarian and prostate cancers. AdnaGen is developed and sold by OncoVista's subsidiary in Germany, AdnaGen AG.

OncoVista's most advanced pipeline product is a Phase II ready treatment for metastatic breast cancer, Aviation Upgrade Technologies, Inc. According to the most recent quarterly report, enrollment should soon begin - assuming that the company has working capital available.

Cordycepin, the company's next most advanced product that treats a type of Leukemia, has been granted Orphan Drug Status by the FDA.

The company also has additional pre-clinical products in the pipeline.

While OVIT holds some long term potential as sales of AdnaGen potentially increase and the pipeline advances, financing will always be a concern for the time being.

Good long term speculative play, but as always with these early stage companies, I'd try and trade the spikes and dips in order to reduce my overall risk exposure by the time the products reach Phase III. With a current market cap of only about three million, I think that trading into one or two speculative spikes could have you playing on house money before long.

OVIT is worth the DD time, in my opinion, for those with a long term outlook.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: MHTX

MHTX.ob: An email from E. Spencer regarding Manhattan Scientifics:

VFC - any idea what caused the enormous volume and price spike to MHTX? their site said that they had a first ever profitable quarter but the volume is nuts. bought some after reading your last article and learning more about the company.

VFC's Take: When I saw the price spike and the volume, I took it as that the 'first profitable quarter' news had finally sunk in and investors were reacting accordingly.

However, there is also the possibility that there is additional news pending; maybe something from the Carpenter/nano-metal technology front. I've always said that if that light-weight metal alloy technology makes it to market, the potential applications are endless. If in fact Carpenter has something big lined up for that technology, then I'd expect to hear some revenue guidance from Manhattan before long.

I think that Manhattan is still trading under the radar, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock run a little bit more as potential investors discover the technology held by the company, but I think that significant news would have to be in store to justify the market cap going much higher.

One thing is for certain, things are getting interesting for shareholders of MHTX.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHTX.

Readers Respond: CSUH

A comment from Shep regarding Celsius Holdings:

I wasn't heavily invested in this one compared to some others in my portfolio. Gotta be honest however and say I was looking towards a nice run up to a buck or more and perhaps cash out w/ a nice double or better. Getting listed on a major exchange can only be a good thing in my view, but at the expense of most of my shares??? That sucks. I think it's going to be a long time if ever before I recoup my initial investment however small it may have been. As I do my math today it becomes apparent that the only way to come out ahead in a reverse split is to have many, many, many shares on hand (assuming the new share price is sweet enough). If you only have as we say "night on the town" money invested then your odds of being out of luck are pretty high. Remains to be seen what happens with this one and I'll stick, but I hope not many more of my holdings go the reverse-split route.

VFC's Take: I'll attempt to respond to a few comments and emails here, not just Shep. Here's the immediate point to be made: this is a game of market cap, not share count. The number of shares we own is going to be significantly less, but the value per share - in terms of percentage of the market cap - remains the same.

If you bought twenty shares for a buck each ($20 investment), then you'll be left with only one share - but that share will be worth $20. If the market cap were to eventually double from where you originally bought, then your original investment is going to double as well - whether it's twenty shares you hold or one. The only difference is that a 10% gain when your share trades for a buck is ten cents, where a 10% gain on a twenty dollar share price is $2.

The bottom line is that nothing has changed in terms of future potential - it all comes down to how well the product sells.

It's a psychological factor to have a greater number of shares, but it's the market cap that matters and if future sales justify a higher market cap, then our investments will grow accordingly.

Reverse splits also have a psychological effect on investors. Aside from the fact that most companies enact reverse splits as a desperation move in an attempt to 'stay alive', a post-reverse-split stock is left in a prime position for short sellers to drive the price down. This creates some panic selling from the weak longs and that can add to a dramatic drop.

In the case of CSUH, the company is entering a growth phase, possibly a huge one, and if the result of this reverse split is a listing on the Amex, then I can't argue with that. There's no arguement that I can see being made that would say that CSUH is better off trading on the OTC boards than a main board as the company enters into the huge growth phase.

I won't rule out a post-split drop in price, but I say it again - if future sales can justify a higher market cap, then the stock will rise. If Celsius fails to catch on in the market place, then the stock will drop. It's that simple.

Longs are invested in the belief that future Celsius sales will justify a price spike while shorts will stay short on the belief that they won't. Again - it's that simple.

However, who's right and who's wrong is far from becoming clear. Only the future sales numbers can tell the story - and we at least have to wait for Celsius to reach full distribution before calling the product a success or a failure.



From Scott:

Wow, this is an amazingly bold move. The shares should be down at least 25%, that is the level of dilution that just occurred. (2.5 million shares on top of a post reverse outstanding of 7.5 million)

And right on the heels of a 50% dilution for Carl & Co. He can exercise all 65 million shares of common for market price (issued for 6.5 m in debt, so he pockets the difference above 10 cents) whenever he wants and 95 million shares of convertible preferred at .05 cents per share.

I just don't understand why you don't mention these numbers. I was going to wait to comment, but what they are doing to the shareholders is just shocking to me, and I felt that honest hardworking investors should know this. It makes me so upset for current shareholders (that includes me of course) that I want to be present on the next conference call. The little guy just took another punch to the stomach.

Scott M

VFC's House: Is it March already, Scott?

As always, I understand your concerns, but as you know - I don't panic when I see financing deals. That's part of the game.

The game is life. When we're all young (aside from those born into priviledge), we're not born on the top of the game - we've got to have an idea of what we want to do in life and then get there.

Unfortunately, in this world, nothing comes without a price. We take on huge debt burdens as young people to get a college education in the hopes that we'll land a job that allows us bring in enough cash to both live good AND pay off the debt. Along the way, we also accumulate a lot of credit card debt that eventually needs to be paid off. Then there's the car loan - and if one were to get married and have kids young, that adds on another whole debt burden.

The hope is, while growing from children to adults, that when we're a little bit older we will be in a position where our income allows us to pay off all the debt that got us to where we are; not to mention have enough left over to live the good life.

My point is that no one gets 'miracled' into a position of comfort (aside from those born with silver spoons in their mouths like Paris Hilton), not even Celsius Holdings.

The Celsius product is an idea - call it a child - that is growing. In order for that child to get where it's going to end up, she needs funding. Now, the world's first calorie burning beverage doesn't need funding for a college education, but she needs money to produce all of her brothers, sisters and cousins in the bottling plant. Then she needs money to gets her pretty face on TV.

When she's old enough, Celsius needs a boyfriend. Rather than hang out with the washed up has-beens on the store shelves, she decides to pay for a washed-up child actor who hosts gossip shows; but this actor does have a following, so Celsius is happy.

However, now is where it gets interesting. Celsius is now in a position where she has to perform in the market place well enough to make it on her own. She needs to start bringing in the dough - just like we did when we left mom and pop behind and went to the 'big city'.

Just like us - either you make it or you're destined to a life of accumulating debt and dead beat jobs or you make enough to live good and pay off debt.

I certainly didn't invest in CSUH on the presumption that Steve Haley was going to close his eyes, click his heels and miracle Celsius to the mainstream. Stock deals and dilution are a part of the game. Period. To be honest, anyone that is that afraid of dilution shouldn't dabble in speculative stocks - that's just my opinion.

I maintain my stance, if Celsius catches the wave of changing health trends in the market place, then all this fear of dilution is going to be a moot point.

Thursday's announcements are not going to make or break the company or anyone's investment. What will break the company is if the product doesn't sell.

Granted, the last couple of quarters didn't meet the expectations of many investors, but little girl Celsius has her degree, she's just got a job with some large scale companies and she's just landed a well known boyfriend.

I think that little girl Celsius is growing up and now let's give her a chance to perform.

Of course, each investor should do their own DD and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

CSUH: Celsius Holdings Announces a 20:1 Reverse Split in Preparation for a Move to the Big Boards

Celsius announced on Thursday morning that the company's board has approved a 20:1 reverse stock split in preparation for a move to the NYSE Amex. Celsius also announced a financing deal with Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Cash raised from that stock sale will be used for 2010 marketing and development efforts, among other general corporate expenses.

Shortly after the announcement, the CSUH stock plummetted to just over twenty cents before quickly rebounding to over thirty cents. I'd love to sit here an say that I was able to gobble up a boat-load of shares during the drop, but I was just a bit too slow to respond. This drop is an example of why it's important to always have some spare cash on hand because that's how quickly things can move in the market. For those that were able to add in the low twenties are already sitting on hefty gains just on today's trading alone.

Unfortunately for VFC, my spare cash was tied up in my Sharebuilder account - which won't trade CSUH anymore - and not Zecco - where I've been doing most of my trading and investing. I'll be kicking myself for missing this big drop for a while, but I still feel set with my CSUH holdings moving forward.

Stock volatility aside, let's digest the news. I wouldn't be being honest if I didn't first say that I am not a fan of reverse splits and once one is announced, I will usually hold off any additional buying and accumulation until after the split goes into effect; usually the stock price drops immediately post-split - unless significant news is announced to prop up the share price. After all, it is a game of market cap, not share price, that ultimately matters. It's yet to be seen whether or not the CSUH market cap will be supported by the boom in sales that many are predicting.

Since Celsius is still in the early stages of growth, Thursday's news has not changed anything about the future prospects of the company; the future of Celsius Holdings and shareholder's investments still remains in the hands of the consumer.

Quite simply, if the consumer buys the product on a scale that is equal to the growth of distribution, then Celsius Holdings and its shareholders are going to be very well rewarded - still, even after Thursday's news. However, Thursday's news has upped the ante for investors because there will be a lot more sceptical eyes on the stock by those who do not like reverse splits.

However, I also look at it like this - if the reverse split gets CSUH listed on the NYSE Amex more quickly, then let's do it. I don't see anything negative about being listed on a legitimate board where a whole new group of investors can/will jump on board; especially when the company is positioned for huge distribution and sales growth. But again, the bottom line is sales growth; if sales growth booms and looks to continue to grow into the future, then Thursday's moves would have been instantly justified.

My investment in CSUH continues to be that I think that huge growth is on the way - nothing has changed that fact.

As I've said before, the first and second quarter of 2010 are huge because next March is when CEO Steve Haley said he expects to see full distribution. Last quarter's numbers did not meet the expectations of many investors, but the key here is to be patient. Rome was not built in a day, and Celsius is bringing an entirely new twist to the beverage market. It will take time and effective advertising for the consumer to absorb or become aware of the fact that Celsius is not just another energy drink. On that note, I believe that the 'effective advertising' has yet to hit the airwaves. The 15-second commercials that I've seen on the television are great at putting the catchy tune 'Burn Baby Burn' in the heads of consumers, but the commercial ends with the assumption that a potential consumer is going to jump on their computer and research the product. In my opinion, the consumer needs to know exactly what they're getting at the conclusion of the commercial and I'm looking for the new thirty second ads to do just that.

There's also the Mario Lopez factor. Granted, the guy wouldn't be any one of our's number one choice to pitch the product, but his face is highly recognizable and let's just see how well he can get the message out.

The bottom line is this - while reverse splits are usually a sign of a desperate move by a company on the brink of disaster, Celsius is in the beginning of a huge growth phase (in my opinion) and the reverse split is a tool to get the stock listed on the big boards in a quick and more timely fashion.

VFC, "Pinky" Pete and Joe Schmoe may invest in the OTC market, but many big investors do not. Who knows who's out there that will buy in once the stock is listed on a legitimate exchange.

There's no doubt that Celsius is offering up a product that will potentially revolutionalize the beverage industry; that's why I have invested here and that's why many others have also.

The company was smart to throw that tidbit about moving to the NYSE Amex; they knew that a reverse split would scare many investors away, but they also knew that a move to a major exchange could also only be perceived as a positive - in my opinion, the news is a wash. If the move to a major exchange does not occur, however, then I'll raise the BS flag.

But again - sales are going to dictate the future.

Some will say a boom in both distribution and sales is pending and others see Celsius as a failed 'me-too' product that will never catch a foothold in the market.
Since the story is still in the beginning stages of development, it's too early to say who's right at this time.

I'm invested on the basis of future potential - and I expect that the first half of 2010 should start to turn that potential into reality.

Celsius, DeSantis and Ladenburg Thalmann raised the bar with Thursday's news - either big things are on the way or a few rich guys just got a whole lot richer at the expense of the little guy.

You decide which is the case - and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Readers Respond: Options Trading

Hi VFC! Do you mind explaining a little about options? I'm a new investor and I'm interested in learning about options, how they work, and the benefits of them. I love your blog and you explain everything so well. I just thought I would ask you about your expertise. How did you learn about options? Any advice or book recommendations would be very helpful and much appreciated! Thanks again!

VFC's Take: I'll start by saying that if you are a new investor, I would suggest reading Jim Cramer's book, Real Money.

Let me say that I'm no fan of Jim Cramer because I believe that he's got his own personal interests and ego at heart with anything he does or says, but I'll give credit where credit is due and he does a good job at explaining stock and options investing in 'Real Money'.

I'll dish out a short description of options trading, but I suggest also reading the suggested book and doing a google search to augment this information.

In basic options trading, you're buying either a 'call' or a 'put' option contract. A 'Call' option means that your are looking for the price to go higher in a specified time frame while a 'Put' option means that you're looking for a price to go lower in a specified time frame.

If the stock hits the price that is specified in the option contract (strike price), then you will have the 'option' to either purchase (exercise the option for) 100 shares of the stock at the strike price or you can simply sell the option contract.

One options contract controls 100 shares of the stock, so if you 'exercise' your option, then you will have 100 shares of the stock that you purchase for the 'strike price'.

For instance, if shares or Citi Group (C) are trading for four dollars in June of 2009, but you think that the stock will be trading for above five dollars in January of 2010, you can buy a Citi January 2010 call option with a five dollar strike price. That means that in January 2010, if C is trading for above five bucks in January, your contract will be 'In the Money' and you can exercise that contract for a profit; this is good because you'll be buying one hundred shares of the stock for $5 when the stock is trading for $5.50 - you'll have banked fifty cents profit on one hundred shares (minus contract fees paid up front).

On the other hand, if C were trading for $4.99 come options expiration day (the third Friday of the month), then your option expires worthless - you get nothing back.

That is the most important note to emphasize with options is that if your contract does not meet the specified 'strike price' in the allotted time, then your contract expires worthless and you LOSE ALL of your money. Options trading is a risky proposition - more risky than stock trading, in my opinion - because of the fact that you only have a limited time to wait for your contract to perform.

Options serve a purpose in the portfolio of a small investor - I bought DNDN ten dollar strike price options in late 2006 for for fifty bucks each and sold the highest contract for nearly $1500 at one point - but they are risky and I wouldn't suggest leveraging too much into option contracts; I also had a number of DNDN 2010 contracts expire worthless.

In my opinion, the best way to play the options is to trade them - this allows you to reduce your overall risk to the contract expiring worthless and may allow you to bank some profit along the way.

Again, I've just briefed the subject; please do additional research and reading before dabbling with options.

Readers Respond: MSBT, ACTC, ABPIQ, BVTI

A comment from Sheila regarding Medasorb and Advanced Cell Tech:

If Medasorb (MSBT) delivers positive phase III results in Europe and gets approved, what do you think the market capitalization might be as they ramp up in 2nd half 2010 and full year production in 2011?

Question 2: Do you think ACTC will spike before/after submitting a NDA in December?

Thank you,

Sheila

VFC's Take:

MSBT.ob: If Medasorb delivers positive results from the European trial, then I fully expect the stock to be trading for ten times its current value after the results are released.

However, since there is no effective, currently-approved treatment for severe sepsis, significant potential exists for MSBT to move significantly higher as the company ramps up for commercial launch of the product, in my opinion.

Until that time, I still expect a move to the one dollar level in anticipation of the results, only now I expect that move to be pushed over to the first or second quarter of next year since the most recent PR from Medasorb indicated that the trial was not moving along as swiftly as investors had thought.

Additional financing announcements are also a possibility as the stock moves up and dilution can be a concern, but if CytoSorb works then the short and long term prospects of this company and its stock look very good.

Also, keep a look out for speculative moves up and down on any given day; MSBT moved to over forty cents not too long ago on what i consider a Pump & Dump move and then opened at twenty eight cents earlier this week before quickly retreating to the twenty cent level - so there's also money to be made along the way by trading the stock, in my opinion.

Unless we get bad news from the trial, investors should expect significant gains from MSBT over the next few quarters - in my opinion.

ACTC.ob: Advanced Cell Tech is far from filing an NDA, but an IND should be filed with the FDA in December for ACTC's RPE program; RPE would provide treatment for various eye diseases.

There's always the possibility of a speculative move in the stock at any given moment, but I no longer expect significant moves from biotech stocks on announcements of early-stage product candidates.

I view ACTC as strictly a long term stem cell play to accumulate and I'll continue to average down in my position. Any significant spike would most likely be followed by an announcement of financing, in my opinion, so I would sell some trading shares into a short term spikes. Again, just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT and ACTC.



ABPIQ.pk, BVTI.pk:

An anonymous comment regarding Accentia Biopharmaceuticals and Biovest:

What are your current thoughts on BVTI and ABPIQ? Do you think ABPIQ will have any shareholder equity or their underware left after bankruptcy? Too bad they went belly-up because they have good technology.

VFC's Take: The way I see it, I wouldn't start loading up on either of these two stocks right now but I also wouldn't completely sell out of a position either.

I still hold a very small amount of BVTI (I never held ABPI), after selling some shares into the recent spike to over fifty cents, but I'm taking a 'wait and see' approach with BiovaxID right now. BiovaxID is currently being used in a named-patient program in Europe.

If you like speculation, it may be worth holding onto a few shares - just in case the bankruptcy proceedings leave some shareholder equity in tact - but keep in mind it's entirely possible that the boxer shorts will be all that's left standing after proceedings.

Short term volatility may allow for some good trading opportunities, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long BVTI, no position ABPIQ.

Readers Respond: CVM

CVM: A comment from Michael regarding Cel Sci Corp.:

Hi VFC

I first heard about CVM from one of your articles on SeekingAlpha. After that I did my own DD on CVM and have since taken a position in it because I believe the risk/reward is definitely worth the amount of money I'm putting in it. I'm definitely willing to lose the money I put in b/c I feel that if Multikine succeeds, this stock will easily follow Dendreon.

However, I'm not a science guy (I'm an accountant and more of a finance guy) and thus I don't know much about how the FDA works. My question is basically what is the difference between phase 2 and 3? I saw the CVM November Powerpoint on their site and they said they avoided many of the problems other companies ran into. However, even so, I am wondering what the chances are that Phase 3 succeeds? Is it 50/50? 60/40? In other words, if phase 2 was such a success, what could go WRONG in phase 3 for Multikine to not get FDA approval?

I first bought in at $1.5 and have been averaging down happily...I'm hoping it falls below $1 again so I can load up the boat. Thanks for your insight VFC and I hope you're right on CVM.

PS: I read the Yahoo Message Boards daily and they are very entertaining. A lot of people are saying how Byron is fake and how CVM hasn't delivered since inception. Any comments on those. Thanks.

Michael

VFC's Take: I agree that CVM is still worth the risk/reward right now, even for those that are just now gaining a position in the stock. If Multikine is proven successful in Phase III trials, I think that Cel Sci will not only follow Dendreon (DNDN), but probably surpass it. Multikine, unlike Dendreon's Provenge, is being developed as a first-line standard of care.

However, before we get too excited, we all must remember to temper our expectations of success until we start seeing some results from the Phase III trial which haven't even started yet.

The main difference between a Phase II and Phase III trial is the scope and size of the trial. In short, Phase I generally tests the safety of a potential product; Phase II is a continuation of safety studies in a larger patient group, but mainly is used to see if the product actually works; Phase III is the 'make or break' trial - the potential product candidate is tested in a much larger group of patients. The trial not only confirms how well the potential product works, but also measures how much (if at all) better it is than what's already out there. That's just VFC's brief description of the clinical trials, a Google search will most definitely provide you with more detail.

As for the chances of a Multikine Phase III success, I'm not in a medical position to place an estimate based on 'percentage of success', I can only account for what I read and/or discuss with people in the medical (cancer) field, but I like what I have seen enough to consider the risk of an investment in CVM to be well worth the possible rewards.

Each investor will have to determine for his or herself how much money is worth risking in an investment based on his or her own financial situation, stomach for risk and - most importantly - their own DD.

I do know that Cel Sci has been in contact with the FDA reguarly regarding the development of Multikine and the Multikine manufacturing facility near Baltimore, Maryland (after all, the FDA gave Cel Sci the go-ahead to move forward with the Phase III trial), but as far as what can go wrong - I can only speculate. If Multikine does not work, that would certainly be a show-stopper, and every investment comes with the inherent risk that the stock will go to zero; CVM is no different. Multikine is no sure thing, but all indications so far is that it works, so I like my chances with this one.

As far as anything going wrong with the production of Multikine, Cel Sci has taken precaution after precaution to ensure that nothing goes wrong inside that facility. There are double-checks and repetitive measures in place that will virtually guarantee a smooth operation of production.

Now, addressing the message board fodder that you speak of, I'd have to believe that Byron is somebody - somebody owns the Multikine rights to South Africa. I can speculate as to who that 'somebody' is all day long, but in my opinion, it has no bearing on whether or not I deem Multikine or LEAPS - the real bread in the Cel Sci basket - to be successful.

Byron could be Jimmie "Spoons" selling a Rolex on my street corner and I couldn't care less; but if Multikine is successful and enters the South African head and neck cancer market, then I expect that Jimmie "Spoons" is going to be rich.

And the 'not delivered' question has no bearing. It takes years, sometimes decades for great products to get to market. Those shareholders that were loading up on Cel Sci for thirty cents would also disagree that it has not delivered.

Every investment that you make should come with an entry and exit strategy. Your exit strategy should specify which events would cause you to sell. If you exit your position in the stock for less than what you bought it, then you could say that that investment did not deliver.

My exit strategy with Cel Sci has nothing to do with Byron and Yahoo! message boards and everything to do with Multikine, LEAPS and the cold-fill contracting service that Cel Sci will soon provide.

We have only seen the tip of the iceberg on all three, in my opinion, so it's way too early to claim a non-delivery from Cel Sci. There are plenty of posters on the

Thank you for reading and as always, each investor should do their own DD and invest accordingly.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Readers Respond: BIEL

BIEL.pk: Some reader comments regarding BioElectronics:

From Shep:

Yep...it's a bummer to have a basically positive news released and then watch the thing lose .03/.04 in value. My opinion on todays' slump is that those "in the know" were expecting much more, and they viewed this as weak PR. Some (many) became frustrated and took some profits. Day traders looking for the quick buck sold and moved on. Hence the dip back to the 6's and 7's.

My own take is a little different however. BIEL is a pink sheet micro cap with little exposure as a stock or a product. I read the press release on CNN.com along with millions of others I'm sure. Hundreds of thousands of those readers probably just learned about BIEL and Acti-Patch for the first time. My hope is many of them will become curious and down the road customers. This, or any penny stock, is so speculative that success depends on your perspective. Those that were hoping a PR lead to a spike to .15 were sorely disappointed. Those like me that are long and strong took advantage and bought into the dip. Heck my only complaint is after my buy went through today it dropped another penny.

Am I 100% certain I'm going to cash in on BIEL? No. That's why I'm diversified. But I feel pretty darn good about its chances. We have a company we know is not a sham operation. We have a product that works and is proven safe. We have a better than average shot at FDA approvals soon. We have independent analysts offering their stamp of approval. We're just waiting on market share now, but that won't happen overnight. I think those that hold will be rewarded soon enough. If all goes well, within 6-12 months we could be looking at significant share price increases. Compared to many other speculative plays, me thinks this one is a winner.

VFC's Take: I agree with Shep on many fronts. Most importantly, he mentioned market share (sales numbers) being a prime mover of the stock - and that point is key. Until revenue numbers start rolling in, BIEL is destined for volatility and long term investors will have to stomach some fairly extreme spikes and dips while the story plays out.

For the short term, investors are looking for positive news regarding the pending FDA approvals to drive future sales and revenue predictions. Until those approvals (or not) are announced, trading in BIEL for many will be purely speculative and/or manipulative, but that is not to say that the volatility is finished once those approvals are announced. In my opinion, we won't see a cessation of volatility in this stock until serious revenue numbers start rolling in.

There will always be a solid base of serious longs here, but there will also be a solid percentage of swing/day/momentum traders that will play the short term volatility - it's ultimately up to the individual investor to let his or her DD solidify a buy or sell decision.

The big-boy traders will play their games in this environment - and if you have a handful of trading shares on hand you can, too - but the bigger picture shows that BioElectronics has a safe alternative to Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen on hand that can potentially shape the future market of OTC pain treatment.

However, even great stories take time to play out. It's been months since the FDA announced approval for Vanda's Fanapt. Titan Pharmaceuticals will receive up to 10% in royalties from Fanapt sales but spent months trading for between fifty cents to a $1.30 before recently spiking to over two bucks now that potential revenue is only six weeks away.

The point is to exercise patience. There's no sure thing in the stock market, but you have to trade according to your DD.

If Actipatch receives approval and then begins generating nice sales numbers, then the present day volatility is going to be looked back upon as a gift for those looking to add the dips.

And to tell the truth, I like the current trend of biotech stocks dropping after good news. It allows me to add a lot more shares than I would have if I was purely speculating. If BIEL wants to dip after every bit of good news, that's fine with VFC - because long term, I think we have a winner.



An anonymous post regarding BIEL:

VFC,

BIEL, while having a great product, is becoming a problematic stock. Aside from company reps. possibly posting information on message boards, an official press release from the company last Wednesday announced the timing of the press release regarding the comparative results of ActiPatch and Tylenol. Thus, the run up late last week and the sell off today. In short, management is either very naive or are actively aiding short term profiteers.

I also have concerns over the filings with the FDA, on-going dilution, and the some details about the most recent study. 48 hours of Acti-Patch treatment compared to having ingested Tylenol 90 minutes ago. C'mon, no wonder Acti-Patch turned in the superior performance.

This is looking more and more like a great product/bad management scenario. I am still in, but I've reduced my exposure considerably since my initial purchases in July.

VFC's Take: All valid points, but I have a bit of a different look regarding management. I'm not fully in the boat that believes that the management team at BioElectronics is sub-par. In my opinion, these guys need to be moving forward with the idea that they are building a business, not a stock; if the business is a success, then the stock price will follow.

Sometimes, as was the case with the 'Caveat Emptor' rating on the Pink Sheet stock listing of BIEL, the two go hand in hand, but for the most part, the management team shouldn't be watching the day to day movement of the share price.

That being said, there are some things that could be more professional, as I've mentioned. If the company is actually spreading info via the Yahoo! Finance message boards, that doesn't cut it in VFC's House. That's not how a company looking to move into a huge market should be conducting business and if it's simply a case of the PR guy acting on his own accord, then the company should put a stop to that and rely on PRs or statements from the CEO to get the message out.

In turn, antsy investors should rely on their own DD for comfort in their investment, not stock message board posts (although the boards do serve their own purpose for DD).

As for the other concerns mentioned, I think that they are all valid questions, but I continue to believe that it is far too early in the story to chalk BioElectronics as a good product/bad management story. If the company cannot generate revenue after the pending approval are announced (assuming that they are positive), then I could buy that argument at that point.

For now, however, the product has been advanced to the eyes of the FDA, the stock is no longer 'Caveat Emptor' and the marketing phase is beginning. I'm not yet ready to call that bad management.



From Lenny:

Hi Vinny,

Just wanted to throw a couple of logs into the fire. (-:

MHTX - I bought a small amount, and in the 10Q discovered they have 1 full time employee, namely Manny Tsoupanarias, their CEO. What if he gets hit by a bus?

BIEL - I also have a holding. Sometimes I think things are not so 'kosher' with Biel. They recently issued a financial statement (see pink sheets, Biel, Filings) and even though it is for the Sept 30 2009 quarter it is signed Sept 13, 2009 (see the end). Hmmm. Then, the famous Biel PR consultant Joe Noel who appears on the MB's and twitters, he has 25,000,000 shares and is performing the famous 'pump'. Do you remember that famous report that came out a couple of months ago which indicated Biel should rise to about $.30? The person who wrote it did not disclose their relationship with Joe Noel (they used to work together). Also, from the wording of your blog today, I also think you have concerns ... maybe I am reading too deeply into it?

Anyways, I sold at .08 as it was dropping and bought back in just over .07 - pccketing a small chunk of change. Maybe it is just me, but I am nervous about this management team.

Lenny

VFC's Take: Regarding MHTX - nice comment. Keep the guy away from the road.

Regarding BIEL: If the company is going to start entering the phase of full legitimacy, then management is going to have to start acting a little bit more professional - it's that simple. The days of Joe Noel disseminating unsubstantiated info on message boards have to come to an end.

Right now it's not enough to have me concerned about the future potential of the company and its stock, because all start-ups rely on some sort of 'sweet deal' for someone to get them going, but now is the place in time where BioElectronics starts acting like a legitimate 'title contender' in the market place because the product could be THAT good.

BIEL needs to start shaping up the Mickey Mouse rag-tag PR department on the way to credibility. I'd personally prefer silence from the company over thinking that their methold of 'getting the word out' is a message board.

That being said, there's nothing wrong with issuing a PR or two commenting on current developments.

But that's just me.

I'm not yet ready to call the management team a failure, as I mentioned before, but I am here to say that it is time to take a step up and start acting like a Macy's outfit; right now investors have the feeling that they're shopping at K-Mart.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Briefs: TTNP, MHTX

TTNP.pk: It was a quick rise to the $2.40 level for shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals, as it finally looks like the stock is starting to trade towards its potential.

With the heavyweight Novartis set to commercially launch Fanapt early next year, the schizophrenia drug could quickly gain a foothold in a huge market ($14 billion huge)that has the lowest selling product raking in over $1 billion in annual sales.

As both long and short term followers of Titan Pharmaceuticals well know, Titan will receive royalties of 8% on Fanapt sales up to $200 million and 10% on all sales thereafter; royalty rates that barely justify the current market cap of the company alone when considering the fact that Novartis, with their push and influence, could make Fanapt an instance force in the schizophrenia market.

And then there is Probuphine; for those new to TTNP, Titan recently received a grant from the NIH to fund a Phase III trial for Probuphine to confirm the drug's effectiveness in treating Opioid addiction.

Probuphine is also being tested in Phase II trials for the treatment of chronic pain.

While I have no doubt that TTNP continues to hold significant potential for the future, I sold a few shares into last week's spike to $2.30 in order to free up some cash and move it around a bit.

With Fanapt ready to launch in a couple of months, the next events that could/should move the TTNP stock price are:

- buyout news. I continue to believe that this is a possibility.

- Fanapt sales updates by the end of 1Q 2010.

- Probuphine pipeline updates. Shouldn't come until next year.

- Partner for probuphine. Could come at anytime, or Titan could go it alone for the time being, using grant money and/or Fanapt royalties.

- News of a TTNP move to a major exchange, although this only becomes a possibility if no buyout occurs, in my opinion.

In the event that Titan is not acquired, then a stock sale could become a possibility in order for the company to raise funds. If that were to be the case then I would expect it soon after the recent runup.

However, with a Fanapt revenue stream imminent and Probuphine looking more promising with every update, the days of Titan existing solely as a speculative company are dwindling.

Much of this is a rehash for long term readers, and while Titan still has some nice potential moving forward, it's not a bad time for those still holding sub-five cent shares to realize some profits, spread it around, buy wifey a new pair of shoes and take a vacation.

Of course, this is all just my opinion. Do your own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.



MHTX.ob: Of note, Manhattan Scientifics, Inc. reported their first quarterly profit ever for the third quarter of 2009 - a significant milestone for any company, let alone one that still holds the promise and potential of Manhattan - in my opinion.

According to Manhattan CEO Manny Tsoupanarias, revenues will continue to grow as a result of the recent licensing deal with Carpenter Technologies.
That agreement gives Carpenter the right to bring Manhattan's nano-metal technology to market.

Of note, Manhattan also holds the rights to micro and mid-range fuel cell technology, a cancer early warning detection system and (this is my favorite) Haptics 'touch and feel' computer screen application technology where users could realistically 'touch and feel' any object on their computer screen. Haptics would give whole new life to the on-line version of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit addition.

Shares of MHTX has traded flat since the news, but this is a company with some big potential upside if the technology on hand were to gain a foothold in the market.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHTX.

BIEL: Actipatch Proven More Effective Than Extra Strength Tylenol

Investors of BioElectronics Corp (BIEL.pk) who had been anxiously awaiting the results of a recently concluded clinical study that measured the effectiveness of Actipatch vs Acetaminophen (in the form of Extra Strength Tylenol) received the news that they were looking for on Monday afternoon as the company issued a post-market close press release announcing positive results.

Many investors expected the positive results after interim data released last month hinted that the trial would prove successful for BioElectronics and Actipatch, but the real news may be that the trial showed such a significant difference in effectiveness of the products - a difference of 50%, according to Monday's PR.

While the trial results can most definitely be construed as a positive development for the company, it's still tough to say whether or not the BIEL share price will respond accordingly. It's my opinion that the positive results were already a little but baked into the stock and any rise in price may be minimal, if we get one at all. The recent trend in Biotechnology has stocks trading down after good news - offering great buying opportunities for long term investors, but also scaring away the 'weak hands' who run at the first sign of trouble.

That being said, the positive results could entice some speculators back into the stock after having previously exited after BIEL ran to the twelve cent level a few months ago, and such a move back into BIEL could provide cause for a mini-run.

Any move now could still be viewed as a speculative one, in my opinion, as traders will buy into and out of the stock in anticipation of news on the latest FDA filings, but I also think that BioElectronics is moving into the early stages of a sales growth phase that will attract long term investors.

The full possibilities of how far the coming sales growth could propel the company will be better measured upon the release of the pending FDA decisions.

However, BioElectronics still has hurdles to negotiate. The company is still listed OTC and that means that many long term investors won't touch the stock. It also means that the volatility will continue to be fierce - in my opinion - as many day/swing/momentum traders hang out in the pinks/OTC market looking for quick and easy money after any significant news runs a stock.

This makes for an environment where long term traders have to stay on the ball and either add the dips or trade some 'trading shares' alongside the day traders in order to bank some profits over the short term.

Another questionable characteristic of BioElectronics is a general lack of communication from the company. It's come to my attention that a spokesperson for the company has resorted to posting updates on the Yahoo! Finance message boards, and in keeping with my belief that you can never believe what you read on the message boards (without following up on your own DD), there's no reason why any potential investor should take note of a message board entity claiming to be a company spokesperson.

As long as BioElectronics continues to disseminate information in that manner, the company will always be clouded by a sceptical eye and less speculative investors wil continue to stay away - in my opinion.

However, it may be the case that the management team at BioElectronics is not concerned with that issue since they're concentrated on growth at this time, and not the stock. They may believe that if the product takes off - which it could on a global scale - and revenues increase, then the move of 'real', long term investors into the stock is an eventuality.

I happen to believe that myself; if a product is that good, then growth and sales will eventually positively impact the stock price.

However, there's still the FDA to deal with, and that is why there can still be a lot of volatility left in the BIEL stock price over the short term. It's my opinion that the FDA is heavily influenced by big pharma, and if the BioElectronic products start to look like a threat to the market hold of big pharma, then who knows what can happen.

I wouldn't be surprised to see any FDA delays or denials, but on the other hand, if the FDA is serious about moving the market away from Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen and their health concerns, then the administration has no choice but to approve Actipatch and its 100% safety profile, in my opinion.

One thing is for certain, exciting times are ahead for BioElectronics and its shareholders. Now is the time that true growth can start being measured, and if the BIEL products hit the marketplace with any momentum, then shareholders can be looking at additional significant gains.

For the short term, news of the positive clinical study has investors interested, but its positive news from the FDA that is needed.

I'm still holding long and will add on any dips to below 6.5 cents, barring any unsuspecting bad news.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Readers Respond: Playing the RIMM Options, CVM

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



Hi Vinny,

Hope you are well!

What do you think of RIMM options at this time? The stock has traded down, there is noise it may be a takeover candidate, it has a pipeline of products coming to market ...

Let us know when you get a chance. I was either thinking of the March or June 2010 calls.

Tks,

Lenny



VFC's Take: Always good to hear from you, Lenny. I agree with all said regarding RIMM. The pipeline is strong and I also agree that it would make for a nice takeover target, in my opinion, and playing the options game with RIMM would be the way to go for the small investor - again, in my opinion.

Blackberry's are being handed out like free candy right now and think that strategy is going to pay off later on down the road for the company. I just purchased my own and I don't know how I ever lived without it. I went with the Blackberry over the iPhone not only for the more affordable price, but also because I like a phone to look like a phone, but that's just my style. The point is, Blackberry is gaining market share and that could only be good for RIMM.

Personally, I wouldn't want to tie up the amount of money that it would take to bank significant returns in RIMM options at this time because I still think that there are a lot of lower-priced speculative plays still out there that could pay off either just as good as the RIMM options by the spring.

That being said, when I do play the options game, I like to go for the long options - in the case of RIMM that would be the Jan 2011 calls. I never hold an option contract to expiration - I always sell the contract beforehand - and the longer I have to play the contract the more comfortable I am in the investment. That's just my opinion.

Additionally, I also like to keep half of my contracts as the 'trading half' - since you lose everything if an option contract expires worthless, which greatly increases the risk of the investment, I always like to make sure that I'm doing my best to get on house money as quickly as possible so that if the contracts were to expire worthless, I know I'm at least break-even on the deal.

As for the RIMM options that you mentioned, the stock has traded down recently and I don't think that the downtrend will be sustained. I believe a rebound in the stock will be in order by early next year at the latest and that means that the option contracts will also gain in value. Therefor, I agree, a RIMM call option play right now could pay off by as early as March of next year, in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.



CVM: A comment from Gillmore regarding Cel Sci:

How much is the impending news about Phase III commencement for Multikline already baked into CVM?

Gillmore Viltati

VFC's Take: Good question. In my opinion, CVM is currently trading at a price that reflects either the commencement of the Multikine Phase III trial OR positive developments regarding LEAPS for H1N1, but not both.

I think that the stock still has a little bit of room to move up on facility validation/Multikine Phase III. Long term investors see that news as inevitable, but new investors may jump on the bandwagon once they know that a Multikine Phase III trial is an eventuality and not just speculation. As the trial progresses and interim data comes in, the CVM share price should appreciate in value along the way - if the results are positive.

That being said, anything from the LEAPS front could instantly spike the price and I don't think that that possibility is entirely priced into the stock; if it is, then the Multikine trial is not.

Why I think that there is still some short term upside to CVM based only on the facility/Phase III news is simple: Cel Sci has garnered a whole lot of attention lately, probably more than at any other point in the company's history, and because of that there are a whole lot of eyes watching. With all of the attention paid to Cel Sci, however, there has been a whole lot of doubt and manipulation directed at the company and its stock through some (what VFC considers to be) unscrupulous activity - and that has scared some potential investors away.

Once news develops - and it has already started to with the Johns Hopkins/LEAPS announcement - those potential investors that were swayed by the doubt, can then be confident that Cel Sci is for real and will be willing to jump in.

Additionally, and I'm only speculating here, it may not take too long after the official 'opening' of the Baltimore area facility for the company to start announcing cold fill contracts. Depending on the scope/size of the contracts, that news could add value to the company and the CVM stock as well.

The wild card is LEAPS. I suspect that if the Johns Hopkins study works out, then there will be a slew of new believers who will want in at that point.

So, I do think that the plant validation/Multikine Phase III is somewhat priced in already because the long-timers know that those news items are an eventuality, but I don't think that CVM is currently trading to its potential.

For the short term I think that we're looking at closer to $2. For the mid to long term, Cel Sci will be in great shape if EITHER LEAPS or Multikine is successful - in my opinion. If both hit, then we're going to be sitting pretty a few years down the road.

Keep in mind that I only invest in stocks that I feel the possible rewards outweigh the risks involved. While I'm positive on CVM, each investor should conduct his or her own DD and come to their own conclusions about the company and its stock. It is assumed that every investment comes with inherent risk.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Readers Respond: CSUH, CVM

CSUH.ob: A comment from Scott regarding Celsius Holdings:

You tell a nice warm story about Carl being the big dog and you waiting under the table at dinner time, but the numbers and profitablity win in the end. And you're brushing off the basic financial landscape.

Let's look at the potential for this product if things go tremendously well.

www.bevspectrum.com/issue/spectummarch2008/sportdrinks

(that was a pain, why can't you post links here)

Let's say that this brand grosses 150 million. (this will take at least 3 years) That would make it in the U.S. bigger than Rockstar, Amp, Monster and Full Throttle.

Then you can expect your stock to be worth:

150 x .2 = 30 / 300 mil shares (if you're lucky) = .1 x 10 = $1.

I can beat that return in 3 years. Hell, I can play CVM volatility for a month and beat that return.

C'mon VFC, time to look at the numbers.

Scott

VFC's Take: As you said, Scott, numbers and profitability win in the end, and right now we're far - very far - from the end. In fact, the early innings of the game are still being played. Let's follow your advice and let the numbers play out. As I've stated before, I think that the first half of next year is going to give us great insight to just how well Celsius is being received in the marketplace after much of the big distribution is in place.

As for the other beverages that you mentioned, Celsius has zippy in common with Rockstar, Amp, Monster or Full Throttle. They're completely different genres and the only quality that Celsius has in common with those drinks is that they're all liquids ingested by the mouth. I don't see the comparison that you draw, but I'll be honest and point out the fact that no one should invest in Celsius under the belief that it is a sugar laden energy drink - that's far from the case.

I do see that you've grown sour on CSUH over the past couple of days, and judging by your previous posts, part of your exit strategy from the CSUH stock was to sell when you saw Carl DeSantis receive what you perceive to be a 'sweatheart deal.'

As I've constantly stated at VFC's Stock House many times before, I'm a fan of sticking to entry/exit strategies and by no means do I think that anyone should hold onto a stock that he or she is not confident in the eventual outcome. In sticking with that belief, I wouldn't argue with you standing by your exit strategy and leaving CSUH behind to go play CVM. I'm a fan of that stock, too, as readers of the blog well know.

As always, thanks for the comments, sorry that CSUH didn't work out for you. I'm giving this one a little bit more time.

As Scott said, the numbers and profitability win in the end - and the end is far from near.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH and CVM.

Readers Respond: CVM and New Investor Notes

An email from Sebastian:

Dear VFC,

I am new to this whole investing idea. I had some money laying around and I figured this could help. I am struggling with student loan payments (they are half my income!) so I thought that investing could help down the road to pay these things off faster. I thank you for your posts on yahoo finance. They help me a lot with making decisions.

I bought CVM and sold it and made some money. Then, I bought CVM when it was 1.60 a share (I thought it would go back up but it fell a lot). Do you think it will hit that again soon? I listened the other day when you said to hang on to CVM. It shot right back up just like you said. Where can I get this kind of information?

Is there any advice I could get when watching stocks like this one? I understand the volatility of the stock could do just as what happened to me. Would you hang on and wait? Or cut your loss and try another? I am focused on the long goal but I would like to build my account up to make the better trades with less volatile stock. No one I know is an investor and I am the first in my name to actually graduate from college (and first from high school). I have done my research online but I am still casting with a stick and string. I need to learn to fish! If you have any suggestions or general advice, that would be great. I want to be a small investor living the good life like you.

Thanks,
Sebastian



VFC's Take: Regarding CVM, I remain consistent with my long-held belief that we've got a real winner with Cel Sci and its stock. Those that are patient and buy on any CVM dips will eventually be well rewarded for their investment, in my opinion. Keep in mind that I'm not always right - nobody is - and therefor you need to do your own DD to remain confident in your investment.

As for your other comments, the best thing that any new investor in your position should keep in mind, in my opinion, is to remember that you can't 'win it all' with one investment. Meaning, you've got student loans that you want to pay off, but don't let the fact that those loans are there effect your investing style. If you've got your debt in mind while watching a stock in your portfolio rise, it may keep you from realizing some profit when you should in the hopes that the stock will continue rising to a level high enough that you could pay off your entire debt if you sold. That rarely happens - chip away at the loans, don't expect a payday big enough to pay them off all at once.

I would most definitely refrain from using any 'living money' in the market; remember - you've got to pay the bills and you've got to have a life before you start risking free cash. Just my opinion.

That being said, these three links outline some of my strategies and lessons learned:

VFC's Lessons Learned
When to Take Gains/Entry and Exit Strategies
Exercise Patience

Readers Respond: Some Penny Plays

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



Hi VFC,

I am a new investor and need your help. I have BIEL, ASFX, HTDS, PWRM, LLBO, EPCT, ENMD, HGSI, IMGG, SNDY, IMDS, NUBL, CRXX and few more in my portfolio. I was in IMGG @ .16.

Anyway I have another about 25000 $ that I can invest and can hold it for 2,3 years. Want to invest in penny or subpenny stocks. What is your advice? What will be the best companies to invest for long term that have a potential to reach atleast $1 or more like VRMLQ.

I am making some good money with your help sofar and thank you very much for that.

Thanks in advance,
Josh

VFC's Take: Talk about a new investor jumping in with both feet first! That's a pretty volatile, high risk group of stocks that you've got there. In my opinion, it's a good idea to complement the 'penny portfolio' with a few long term, stable growth stocks as well. However if you've got the same trading persona that I do (high risk tolerance), then your long term growth stocks are going to be considered long term speculative plays by others.

I'm not sure that we'll see another VRMLQ for a while, and I regret not jumping in when it was still at just over a dollar, but here's a few other penny plays that I've been looking at:

[Use the Google search bar at the top of the page to search for my previous posts regarding these stocks]

MHAN.ob: Still trading for under ten cents and has the non-pesticide head lice Hedrin treatment on the table for possible US FDA approval next summer. Also recently merged with Tarpan Therapeutics.

I don't expect the world from this one, but a one dollar share price is possible - in my opinion - if Hedrin is approved.

MHTX.ob: A twelve cent stock. The company holds patents and rights to some pretty hefty technology, if it ever catches on.

Already more than a triple this year, I think that the upside is limitless - I say again, if the technology catches on.

ELTP.ob: Multiple partnered drug candidates in the pipeline. This eleven cent stock has shown signs of life lately.

MSBT.ob: Has retraced to sub-twenty cents after a run to forty, but another move up could be in the works by early next year as speculators anticipate the result of an ongoing European CytoSorb trial.

CytoSorb is a medical device that can potentially treat severe sepsis. Currently, there is no approved or effective treatment for that indication, so the upside is huge with MSBT - in my opinion.

Some others that I believe could return a double, triple or more:

MCET, NPDT, MFLI, INTK.

Happy Hunting!

Disclosure: Long all stocks mentioned by VFC.

Readers Respond: HTDS

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



HTDS: Some reader responses regarding Hard to Treat Diseases:

Hi VFC! Thank you so much for all your posts! What do you think about Hard to Treat Diseases HTDS? Back in August, you mentioned them in a post when the company was a sub-penny stock and you were a bit wary of them. Today HTDS is a little over 1 cent and they've had some recent news including Novartis acquiring a stake in the company's H1N1 vaccine partner in China. What are your thoughts? Thank you!



Hi there VFC,

I came upon you blog and seeking alpha articles a few months ago and love your takes on Pharma companies. I think you have some very level headed and smart investment opinions. I was wondering something…I have had a very large position in the company HTDS for many months now. I have sold on the peaks and bought at the dips…but have always maintained some shares in case of the big deal.

This week, HTDS and its subsidiary Mellow Hope had some big news. In addition to all of the vaccine orders that they have gotten in the past 4 months from different countries around the world, they signed an exclusive marketing agreement with zhejiang tianyuan bio-pharmaceutical company to distribute all kinds of vaccines outside of china (including the H1N1 vaccine that just received approval). The huge news came last week and this week that Novartis just bought an 85% stake in zhejiang tianyuan bio-pharmaceutical company…ith HTDS (Mellow Hope) having an exclusive distribution agreement in place with that company internationally (outside of China).

Previously the CEO said earnings could be three or four-fold higher than they have been. In addition, news came out that they are in final negotiations with a large EU Pharma company for their stem cell business and also with a large Canadian Pharma company for their cancer drug business.

This stock is priced at $0.011 right now. Do you think that HTDS is an incredibly strong buy with enormous price per share gain potential being likely? I certainly think this could be huge…especially with earnings coming any day. I would greatly appreciate your insight and thoughts on this. The Novartis deal was a pleasant surprise.

Please use my initials HGA if you choose to post any of the publicly. Otherwise, I’d love to receive and email from you with your thoughts. Thanks.

All the best,

HGA



VFC's Take: I'm in two minds about Hard to Treat Diseases. My first impression is that the company and its stock are both too good to be true. I can't help but believe that if the company were everything that it claims to be, then it wouldn't be trading at the one penny levels. I'm also sceptical of the Chinese-Serbian connection; there's no way to legitimately track what these guys are up to, as the "Caveat Emptor" rating on the HTDS pink sheet quote specifies.

That being said, traders have made a killing on the HTDS play already this year and the volatile action that has been played by investors such as HGA (the second emailer from above) is likely to continue. For that reason alone HTDS may be worth some speculative 'night on the town' money, but I'd still shy away from using 'long term investment' money on this one.

The recent Novartis PR gives some credence to the fact that HTDS is for real, but I can't shake the feeling that there is something extremely shady about this company that has over four billion shares outstanding.

My take is simply this: HTDS is an 'all or nothing' play. If the company is for real, then shareholders are going to make a killing - a huge killing. However, if nothing real materializes from all the hype then a .0001 stock price is once again a possibility. Be prepared for both scenarios, but I like HGA's strategy of trading in and out with the trading shares and keeping the base position invested 'just in case'.

In my opinion, if you're looking at HTDS, then that's how you've got to play it.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: CSUH

CSUH: A comment from Scottmba09 regarding Celsius Holdings:

Interesting Celsius development. With CNBC ads, they have purchased 30 second spots. This is a new thing. They previously bought 15 second spots, in which it was very difficult to comprehend what was going on (product value proposition-wise), and I'm an investor! At least now, there is enough time for a new potential customer to realize the point of the ad.

That being said, I am still very angry with management's recent debt deal (re: handout) to angel investor Carl De Santis. Because of that, I will not be buying more shares. It significantly dilutes investors to line his pocket. That should be at least mentioned by VFC on this blog.

VFC's Take: Thanks for the comments, you always bring something to the table with your posts and I appreciate that. I agree, the 15 second television spots did little to give potential customers an idea of what they're getting with Celsius. The thirty second ads should be received a lot better, in my opinion.

As for any financing deals conducted between Celsius Holdings and Carl DeSantis - including the one mentioned by Scott - I'm not overly concerned; even with the added dilution.

If there are two things that are certain in the business world, it is that the big boys are going to look out for each other and those big boys are going to expect payback for 'services or financing' rendered. In regards to the recent debt deal between Celsius and DeSantis, if it had been VFC that came to the plate for Celsius the way Carl DeSantis did, I'd probably expect some sweatheart deals myself.

However, there's more the story. Before Carl came along, Celsius was looking for credit at a time when no one was getting any - especially start ups like Celsius Holdings. The company was getting killed in financing terms and distribution was moving along at a snail's pace. Heavy dilution was in the cards for the company until Carl showed up, paid off the loansharks and gave Celsius life. It's my opinion that Celsius Holdings would have had to dilute the stock a whole lot more had Carl not come aboard than they have had to with him.

In addition to the more favorable financing that DeSantis gave the company, he used his contacts and his heavyweight pull in the industry to move the Celsius story along at lightning speed, in comparison to the previous pace. With all due respect to the CEO Steve Haley, who is The Man behind Celsius, Carl allowed the company to live without the fear of a pre-Apollo Rocky Balboa coming to the door with brass knuckles looking to bust knee caps. So big Carl gets a nice hookup for all he's done, that's the game.

As for the shareholders, I think that we're going to be sitting pretty come next summer if the big distribution push that has been predicted for months does in fact take place. I'm not concerned with the day to day trading of the Celsius stock - aside from looking for dips where I can add - I'm more concerned about where the stock will be trading a year from now. With or without 'DeSantis dilution', if Mr. Haley is even close to his time frame predictions for distribution over the next two quarters then CSUH has the potential to grow substantially; that will be when the shareholders get paid.

If I had the impression that Steve Haley was more interested in giving Carl DeSantis a 'hook up' than he was with growing the company, then I might be concerned. However, and to the contrary, I get the impression that Steve and the rest of the board believes that Celsius is on the verge of big things. If that's the case, and all the big distribution deals bring Celsius to the mainstream, then the most recent dilution is going to be a distant memory that gets lost with the lime at the bottom of my Corona on a beach in Los Cabos.

The point is, Celsius isn't going to live or die based on the DeSantis deals, it's going to live or die based on whether or not the product sells. As long as any money raised is ued to grow the company, I'm fine with that. It takes money to make money.

I know my place on the totem pole. I'm fine with the big boys getting paid first. I'm a patient kind of guy and I'm going to see what the next few quarters bring.

The 'booming growth' phase is just beginning, not coming to an end, so I took the opportunity to add a few shares at thirty five cents today. If it drops any more, I might pick up a few more.

Carl DeSantis is sitting there somewhere eating his cake, VFC is just trying to pick up the crumbs; that's all that we can do as small investors.

I'm confident that there will be enough crumbs left behind to satisfy us all.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Each investor should invest based on his or her own DD and tolerance for risk.

Readers Respond: CHTP, LXRX, RNN

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



CHTP: A comment from Noah regarding Chelsea Therapeutics International Ltd.:

Hi VFC,
I was wondering if your thoughts have changed on CHTP since they were @ $7+.

Thanks,
Noah

VFC's Take: CHTP was trading for over six dollars when I first commented on the stock, and at that price I wasn't much of a fan.

Since that time, the company's lead drug Droxidopa failed to meet the endpoint of a Phase III trial designed to measure the drug's effectiveness in treating symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (NOH). However, with an additional Droxidopa trial still ongoing and with the stock now trading for about $2.25, CHTP is being considered by some as a potential rebound play.

In my opinion, I still think that there are better - and safer - rebound plays out there than this one, although the possibilities are there for CHTP to eventually recover.

Chelsea has pending talks with the FDA where they may attempt to alter the trial design of the second ongoing trial, since it has been claimed that it was a poorly designed endpoint that caused Droxipa to fail the recently announced trial. That being said, the short to mid term success of this company depends on the FDA 'playing nice' with a company after a failed trial. That's something that doesn't happen too often and I'm not willing to risk my money on that proposition.

At the current time I'd enter into an investment in CHTP with the assumption that the ongoing trial will continue on unchanged, meaning that I'd be worried - as an investor - that the results of this trial could be met with the same results of the failed one. That's a little bit more risk than I'd like to take on, even while the stock is trading for just over $2.

By comparison, I like the prospects of TTNP (although Titan has started to rise pretty significantly lately) and BDSI more than CHTP because both stocks are set to start raking in revenues on already approved drugs and are still trading at levels that I believe do not believe justify their market potential over the next few quarters.

So, I do see a possible upside for CHTP if things go right with the ongoing trial and/or the FDA allows the company some flexibility with the still ongoing trial, but realistically I think that a recovery to previously traded levels may be a couple of years off at this point.

Of course, this is just my opinion and keep in mind that I'm not a long time follower of this stock.

Disclosure: VFC has no position in CHTP and is long BDSI and TTNP.



Next:

Hi Vinny,

I am a loyal follower and respect your opinion. I too am a long-term shareholder of CVM and see the potential of the company. That said, I wanted your opinion on two companies, of which I am already a shareholder, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (LXRX) and Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (RNN). They have a strong and diverse pipeline, along with good management and partnerships. The companies are low-key, meaning that no bloggers have put them in the spotlight (although sometimes the spotlight isn't necessarily a good thing) and wanted your opinion.

I know your busy but would love to know what you think.


Thanks,
Marcel

VFC's Take: I'll hit LXRX first and then RNN.

LXRX: Lexicon Pharmaceuticals currently trades for a share price of $1.46 (as of Tuesday's close) with a market cap of over 250 million.

What I like about the company and its stock is that there are multiple 'small molecule' drug candidates in the pipeline - all treating different indications with decent sized market potential - so if one or two were to fail any of the ongoing trials, then the company has a safety net in the form of additional product candidates to fall back on.

I also like the fact that the four lead product candidates are in relatively the same spot in Phase II trials because news and updates could come in bunches, which could lead to fairly extreme volatility in the stock price. Another positive for the company is the fact that they have existing partnerships with some big time pharma players. Any drugs or products developed in conjunction with any of the existing agreements will bring in milestone payments for Lexicon.

On another note, the fact that all of these products are in Phase II brings up some additional notes and concerns. The current market cap is about as high as I like to go with companies that have nothing beyond Phase II and because 'product to market' is still a long ways away, financing is always an issue. That being said, the company is not in any immediate need to raise cash, but rest assured there will be some dilution before it's all said and done - in my opinion.

LXRX is a decent long term speculative play, in my opinion, but I would like to have some trading shares on hand to play any spikes and dips in order to end up on 'house money' here because I don't wholly trust companies with nothing beyond Phase II.

Keep in mind that these are my initial impressions; invest according to your own DD and tolerance for risk.

Disclosure: No position.



RNN: You've got to love this company for the sheer range of indications that can potentially be treated by the company's products; from cancer to mood disorder to erectile dysfunction (Archexin, Serdaxin and Zoraxel, respectively).

As purely a long term speculative play, I like RNN over LXRX. Rexahn, like Lexicon, has nothing beyond Phase II, but with a share price of under a buck a market cap of only forty million, there's plenty of room for speculative price moves or genuine price appreciation along the way.

Both companies have strong pipelines and both are decent long term speculative plays - in my opinion - although long term investors should just buy the dips and ignore the day to day price action of the stocks that do not result from news. Those looking to 'trade' a handful of trading shares should buy the dips and then sell some shares into any good news that may be released, in my opinion.

Again - while these stocks each hold the potential to realize significant long term gains, keep in mind that they are 'Phase II' stocks, a long way off from market.

Anything can happen.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: DKAM

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



DKAM: An anonymous comment regarding Drinks Americas Holdings, LTD:

Speaking of beverage holding companies, how does DKAM look on your smell test? I think it is oversold right now and presents an opportunity for a short-mid term hit. They have celebrity names on board, Trump, Kid Rock, etc, and have secured financing for distribution and operations.

VFC's Take: I can see the attraction to DKAM as strictly a short to mid term 'night on the town' stock, in line with the views of the poster of the above comment, but it's far from being a solid long term investment. Ultimately, I don't see the company making it.

I usually shy away from investing in the Food & Beverage industry because of the fierce competition; I chose to invest in Celsius because it was unique - the first of the 'calorie burners' - and still remains the leader of the functional beverage market, in my opinion.

As for DKAM, I see nothing unique about the company's products. Drinks Americas is willing to pay celebrities for the right to attach their name to an alcoholic brand, but other than the celebrity name, the product is just one in a long list of 'me too's' - in my opinion. The products have yet to catch fire and I'm not so sure that they can. Kid Rock's "BadAss Beer" can catch a cult, but I don't see that brand hitting the mainstream - not even close.

Another cause for my concern is the recent PR which stated that the company had improved its balance sheet by issuing the CEO and the Board of Directors shares and warrants in exchange for debt. In what the PR stated was a vote of confidence by the Board, I interpret as a last ditch effort by a flailing; no one else was willing to come to the table so the Board decided to step up to the plate and take the deal while giving the company the premium - and then hope that the "vote of confidence" would lure in other entities to keep the lights on at Drinks Americas.

According to the PR, the reason why sales are down is because there's been no money to fund operations.

A short term gamble? Maybe, but I see DKAM as a company as one that is in an industry that I shy away from and is now on the way out rather than one on the road to recovery.

Do your own DD, this is only my first impression, and invest according to your DD and comfort/risk level. In my opinion, there are better speculative 'night on the town' plays than DKAM.

Disclosure: No position.

Briefs: TTNP, CSUH

TTNP.pk: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals dropped to the $1.81 level during early trading on Tuesday in what could be considered an attempt to 'shake' a few more shares loose - considering the fact that volume was nearing a stand still at the $1.90 level.

With Fanapt royalties imminent and the advancement of Probuphine now paid for by an NIH grant, Titan continues to be in a primed position to spike, whether it be on the company's own merit and potential for the future or as the result of a buyout offer.

However, I'm still counting on a buyout based on the fact that Titan has neither announced an intention to move to a major exchange nor attempted to raise additional funds through a stock offering; additionally, recent comments made by the CEO in the Washington Post spell 'buyout coming' in my book. That is strictly my opinion, however.

TTNP may continue to trade with some volatility until news hits the wires - whatever that news may be, but it sure looks to me like Tuesday's dip was an attempt at a little 'tree shake', although the shake didn't net too many shares. It looks to me like the longs are holding strong in anticipation of new highs in the near future.

If Titan were to go it alone, however, I would expect an offering to be announced at some point after the next significant spike in price. The 'go it alone' scenario would not provide the immediate payback that many investors are looking for - as a buyout would - but the possibility to realize even greater gains would exist for those investors willing to wait out the development of Probuphine and the market entrenchment of Fanapt.

Regardless of which course of action is taken by Titan, one thing is for certain: the future has never looked brighter for this company, as I've stated before.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.



CSUH.ob: Shares of Celsius Holdings bounced between thirty five and forty cents on Tuesday after it was announced in an early morning press release that the company has signed Mario Lopez to be the company's celebrity spokesman.

The match seems like a perfect one for both parties, since Lopez is an admitted fan of the product already, and should give the product much needed celebrity exposure for the next phase of an already invigorated marketing push.

While Lopez is not considered a 'prime time' celebrity in VFC's House, I do admit that he is a nice fit for Celsius, and both the company and its shareholders should be in pretty good shape over the course of the next 12 months if Lopez can love the Celsius product as much as he loves himself (or at least come close).

The timing of the announcement - just after the release of third quarter results that were construed as disappointing by many investors - was also a nice move; CSUH could easily have moved into the low thirties without any news to support a reversal of the dip that occurred on Monday. However, the drop was merely a buying opportunity, in my opinion, because the real move in both awareness and stock price will be coming early next year.

That being said, the company is far from 'in the clear'. Financing is always a concern, but additionally - now that the advertising campaign is in full effect and distribution is climbing, Celsius needs to report significant sales growth over the next two quarters to keep some long term investors from bailing, in my opinion; especially after the celebrity signing of Mario Lopez.

In short, it's crunch time. The beginning phases of 'booming awareness and distribution growth' is underway, in my opinion, and that needs to translate into sales growth.

The signing of Lopez to lead the company's marketing vision for 2010 fits right into the plan of growing awareness and growing sales - as outlined by CEO Steve Haley many times before - and it could be that 2010 is shaping up to be a memorable year for Celsius Holdings and shareholders of the company.

It won't be too much longer before forty cents is looked back upon as a steal - in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Briefs: EPCT, CVM

EPCT: Shares of Epicept continue to trade for under a dollar as the company announced in a quarterly report on Tuesday that it continues to aggressively pursue a partner for the commercialization of Ceplene in Europe. Ceplene is Epicept's lead drug and is approved in the European Union for the remission maintenance and prevention of relapse of patients with AML in first remission.

In additional news released by the company this week, Epicept has filed for Ceplene approval with the Canadian and Israeli Health authorities.

As the Ceplene drama continues to unfold - I say drama because we're still waiting for news of a European partner - it's actually Azixa that has the most imminent potential to move the EPCT stock price, in my opinion. Azixa, a potential treatment for brain cancer, is licensed to Myriad who will be providing an update of at least one ongoing Phase II trial during a meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research next week.

Past updates regarding the Azixa trials have driven the EPCT stock price to above the four dollar level, and while such a rise at this point is not anticipated, investors are awaiting these results with intrigue; if the Phase II trial results are positive and Myriad moves forward with Phase III, then a milestone payment would be due to Epicept.

Epicept also has NP-1, a prescription topical analgesic cream designed to provide long-term relief from the pain of peripheral neuropathies (which they are also looking to partner) and Crinobulin, an anti-tumor agent, in earlier stages of the pipeline.

I continue to remain sceptical of the potential of Epicept to secure a European partner for Ceplene - since it's taken so long for one to materialize - but I'm still holding my shares of EPCT in anticipation of the Azixa updates. Any positive news regarding Ceplene would be a bonus, in my opinion, but not expected.

Disclosure: VFC is long EPCT.



CVM: As shares of CVM have traded to the upside of late, Cel Sci is set to gain more exposure as representatives of the company are set to present at the "7th Annual Vaccines: All Things Considered Conference" in Washington DC on Tuesday afternoon.

While I don't expect the Cel Sci stock to lose any of the recent trading volatility - mostly due to what I consider to be obvious manipulation and a fair number of short shares that need to be covered (as of October) - I do believe that recent developments, including the Cel Sci-Johns Hopkins LEAPS H1N1 study, have re-enforced the long term positive outlook of the company.

Tuesday's presentation will not likely bring any new developments to the table, but there is enough pending news with Cel Sci right now to keep both long and short term investors interested. Aside from the LEAPS H1N1 trial, news regarding the validation of the Baltimore area manufacturing facility continues to be expected in the fourth quarter.

Once that news is released, I then expect a news release announcing the commencement of the long awaited Multikine Phase III trial to follow shortly thereafter.

With volatility of the CVM stock likely to continue, I maintain my position of buying the dips. I think that we have a winner with CVM - especially for those with a long term outlook.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

CSUH: Third Quarter Results Are In for Celsius Holdings

On Friday evening a press release was issued by Celsius Holdings announcing third quarter results. The Friday evening PR was followed by a Monday morning filing of the full Quarterly Report. Because of the timing of the filings - before Tuesday's scheduled conference call - I am inclined to believe that investors will hear about a significant distribution deal that will offset the third quarter numbers that came in below the expectations of many investors.

The $1.3 million of reported revenue was 208% higher than the revenue generated in the third quarter of 2008 and was 12% higher when compared to quarter two of this year. The net loss increased to $2.7 million over the $1.8 million reported for the same time period last year, due mainly to the significant increase in advertising expenses.

The $1.3, while still a demonstration of growth, came in below my own expectations; I had previously stated that I thought $2 million would have been a great quarter, but with a full month of television advertising in the books, I realistically believed that the bottom end of my revenue projection would fall into the $1.5 million range.

However, with a boom in distributorship underway - being supported by a national ad campaign - it's still way too early to become sceptical of the company's ability to grow.

It's become clear, according to recent comments by the CEO of Celsius Holdings Steve Haley, that distribution will be in full effect by March of next year, and it is at that time that the company needs to be on the full upswing in terms of revenue growth - in my opinion. It's crunch time now for Celsius Holdings, because the expenses of the advertising campaign are increasing, and if Celsius is going to gain a strong foothold in the market, now is the time that it is going to happen.

As the leader of the functional beverage market, while holding the claim as the world's first calorie burning beverage, and being supported by numerous clinical studies that demonstrate the benefits of drinking Celsius in conjunction with an exercise routine - I'm confident that the product will gain the desired market foothold.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock dip a bit after the news of the third quarter results, because many investors expected higher, but I'll be using that as a buyin opportunity if the drop is significant enough. However, I believe we'll see additional news that may either lead to support of the current stock price or even spark a mini run.

I'll continue to stand by my own estimations that the first half of 2010 should be a stellar one for Celsius Holdings and shareholders of the company. The shareholders who are patient will be well rewarded, in my opinion.

While my expectations are positive, I also acknowledge that with costs up and advertising exposure in full swing, it's crunch time for the company and the product. If the significant growth that many have predicted is going to occur, it'll be the next few quarters that we start seeing that boom in growth.

For now, I'm expecting additional distribution news to continue hittin the wires.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

CVM: Cel Sci and Johns Hopkins Move Forward With LEAPS

Shortly after the market open on Friday, Cel Sci Corp issued a press release declaring that the company will commence a Clinical Study measuring the effectiveness of the company's LEAPS technology in the treatment of H1N1-hospitalized patients. According to the press release, blood will be drawn from the hospitalized patients and then the cells will be "activated" with the LEAPS-H1N1 treatment "in order to assess the cells' response as the basis for the planned future treatment of this patient population under a next-stage clinical trial protocol." [Quotes were taken directly from Friday's PR]

This study was expected, as the company informed investors in September that the FDA had given Cel Sci the 'go-ahead', but what is significant, in my opinion, is the fact that Johns Hopkins has jumped on board. Johns Hopkins University is one of the nation's most prestigious - especially in terms of the School of Medicine. The fact that an "Institutional Review Board" of Johns Hopkins University gave the clearance for the this clinical study to proceed - with the Johns Hopkins name attached to it -should give sceptical investors a 'warm & fuzzy' that there is some significant potential for LEAPS to become an effective treatment for H1N1 patients.

In short, Johns Hopkins is no joke and the institution gives instant credibility to any ongoing clinical study that they are willing to attach their name to. Does that mean that LEAPS is now a sure bet? No, but the Scientists and Doctors at Hopkins saw something, and that makes VFC more confident than ever that there is more potential to the LEAPS-H1N1 treatment than many have been willing to speculate.

With the study now ready to start, news and updates could come quick; it'll be worth watching the wires over the next few weeks, in my opinion.

What also struck me as somewhat odd was the timing of the PR. Usually - at least in my own experiences - news that would be construed as positive is released towards the beginning of the week, not on Friday, so that the stock could build some early-week momentum rather than have the good news forgotten about by the time trading resumes on Monday.

This is purely speculation on my part, but the timing of the PR has me interested in the possibility that additional news releases may be forthcoming from Cel Sci in the near future.

On another note, I've been asked for a few to comment on some recent blog postings regarding Cel Sci on TheStreet.com website. I'll just say this: I've only read what has been copied and pasted from those blog posts onto other boards because I don't follow 'TheStreet.com', nor their blogs, but I've seen nothing pertinent regarding the potential of Cel Sci or its products come from 'TheStreet.' What I have seen are articles that, in my opinion, support an ulterior agenda and look to incite suspicion rather than discuss the potential of the products.

VFC doesn't play that game.

Additionally, regarding the whole Multikine licensing deal with Byron for South Africa, I didn't invest in Cel Sci in anticipation of South African royalties. Cel Sci has Teva and Orient on board with Multikine and now Johns Hopkins on board with LEAPS H1N1 - all very established and well respected entities. As for Byron, it's a non issue, in my opinion. Someone has the rights to market Multikine in South Africa, and those rights could turn out to be very valuable if Multikine is deemed a success.

Things are just heating up for Cel Sci and a few games and distractions by the 'Big Boys' shouldn't deter investors from following the progression of the company.

The facts are these: The potential of LEAPS for H1N1 is real - Johns Hopkins just validated that fact - and Multikine is closer than ever to Phase III, judging by the progress being made at the Baltimore area manufacturing facility.

As always, this is just my opinion and each investor should do thier own DD and then invest based on that DD and their own comfort level for risk.

'Nuff Said, for now.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

CSUH: Celsius Available in Ralphs; Hello, SoCal!

It was announced by Celsius Holdings in a Thursday morning press release that the Celsius calorie burning beverage will soon be available in Ralphs Supermarkets in Southern California.

The product is already entrenched in the NorthEastern portion of the country and a significant push into the heavily populated SouthWest is a logical next step. With fitness and 'looking good' a huge part of the SoCal lifestyle, Celsius has a chance to catch on a big way, in my opinion. Those beach bunnies roller blading down the coastline in skin tight shorts and half tops will only look that much better with a can of everyone's favorite calorie burning beverage in their hand; but of course, that's just my opinion.

In the past, I had visited a few stores in SoCal that were listed on the Celsius website as offering Celsius (namely Albertson's and Gelson's), only to be told that the product was either not stocked had been discontinued. However, that was over a year ago and at that time product distribution was not being supported by a nationwide advertising campaign.

At this time, however, I have high hopes for Celsius in SoCal.

Ralphs will offer - in 258 locations - both Green Tea flavors (Raspberry Acai and Peach Mango) in addition to the 'On the Go' powdered Raspberry flavored packets.

Celsius CEO Steve Haley is keeping to his word regarding the amount of distribution growth that we are seeing, and if his words continue to be proven as correct, there could be quite a few more deals in the works.

I continue to believe that Celsius is in the midst of a huge growth phase - a phase being supported by television, print and radio ads - and the current share price, while a bit over valued when compared with past sales, is going to be looked back upon as a bargain - in my opinion - based on the sales and revenue growth that should result from the boom in both distribution and advertising.

While I won't rule out another dip down into the mid thirty cent range sometime during this quarter, I do consider mini a late year run as a possibility. However, I think that the big move in the CSUH share price will come early next year, in my opinion - barring any unforeseen bad news or setbacks.

I know that some investors are concerned about the possibilities of additional financing. Celsius is still a growing company and that means that financing is always a concern, but the need for financing goes side by side with early stage growth, so additional dilution along the way should come as no surprise. Also, since Carl DeSantis has come on board, the terms of financing for Celsius Holdings have been a lot more favorable than previous agreements. As long as revenues and product awareness are growing, additional financing agreements should just be looked at as an expected bump in the road - in my opinion. The overall potential of the company remains the same.

For the immediate future, investors have Tuesday's earnings release to look forward to.

The best for Celsius, in my opinion, is still yet to come.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Readers Respond: BIEL, NRIFF

BIEL.pk, NRIFF.pk: A comment from Alejandro regarding BioElectronics and Nuvo Research:

Hi VFC
I added some shares of Biel to my position at 0.06 to use for speculative in and out move. I don´t see Biel going to much lower, and I think any news will rise the price to the 07-08 range... Do you agree with that? Is a good strategy, or I´m doing a nonsense move (I will maintain my base of biel safe).
On the other hand, I didn´t sell Nriff because I didn´t reach my target price and now I believe that Nriff is more secure than other investments... I will practice my patience with this one, and wait it reaches a good and accurate level (since it has received the approval, I´m waiting for a 0.75 price).
Thanks for the good work.

VFC's Take:

BIEL: In regards to BIEL, I also took the opportunity to add shares at six cents and I am also prepared to add more if the stock dips down to five cents. Any lower than that would be an absolute steal, in my opinion.

With FDA approval news pending and the dreaded "Caveat Emptor" rating recently removed from the company's Pink Sheets stock symbol, BIEL could move up in quick fashion when the negative trend turns positive.

There's no sure thing in the world of investing on the basis of FDA approvals, but Actipatch has already been proven as safe and effective and is a healthier alternative to Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen - as is being demonstrated in an ongoing study that is comparing Actipatch to Extra Stregnth Tylenol. Based on those facts, I like the chances of the pending FDA applications coming back as approvals.

Over the long run, ActiPatch could gain traction on the world market as a safer alternative to Acetaminophen and other pain and inflammation treatments, and that would bode well for shareholders of BioElectronics.



NRIFF: As for NRIFF, I also contemplated selling early on Thursday morning after news of the Pennsaid approval hit, but I decided to wait it out as I now see the stock as a safer investment than it was before, and one worth holding as a potential growth stock since Pennsaid will be on the market in the first half of 2010. I think that NRIFF could become an easy double from these levels, if not more, by they time Pennsaid hits the market - if not by the time royalties start rolling in.

In the meantime, the trend has been for "FDA approval" stocks to trade down after the approval news, and NRIFF has stuck to the trend. I actually don't mind trends like that because it allows the small investor to buy into companies with already approved products for decent prices.

That being said, I'm willing to add to my position if we see the low thirties again.
Look at NRIFF as a poor man's BDSI right now; both stocks traded down after positive approval news and while I think that BDSI has the potential to realize more significant gains over the mid to long term, NRIFF is more affordable for the small investor and has a chance to post at least a double in its own right over the same time frame, in my opinion.

As always, this is all just my opinion - do your own DD before purchasing any stock.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL and NRIFF.

Briefs: SIRI, NRIFF

SIRI: Shares of the SiriusXM satellite radio responded positively to news that losses narrowed and revenues increased during the third quarter of 2009. Aside from one time charges, the company reported cash flow break even.

While I am confident in the ability of SiriusXM to continue demonstrating growth, we can't ignore the fact that the cash for clunkers program, which gave a boost to the auto industry in the third quarter, also gave a boost SiriusXM. Satellite radio is not entirely dependent on the auto industry for survival, but it's safe to say that it is significantly dependent on the industry. Let's face it, Americans are lazy and they're more apt to buy SatRad if it's already installed in a new car rather than purchasing a radio on line that they have to install and activate themselves.

If the auto recovery remains strong, then so will the SatRad recovery, in my opinion; although I believe that the more consumers are exposed to the service, the more they'll be apt to purchase portable SatRad devices such as the Sirius Stiletto.

There's nothing like being able to listen to your favorite football team anytime and anywhere - even if wifey has you out watching a concert in the park.

However, SIRI is not completely out of the woods yet; SatRad is a luxury item and if the auto industry falls into another rut and/or the unemployment rate continues to rise, then the rise of SiriusXM will also be put on hold.

That being said - barring a market setback - I still see SIRI inching up towards the one dollar mark, with some periods of consolidation along the way.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIRI.



NRIFF.pk: Covidien and Nuvo Research Inc., announced on Thursday morning that the US FDA has granted approval of Pennsaid, an anti-inflammatory drug used for the treatment of osteoarthritis of the knee.

Upon approval, Nuvo is due to receive a $15 million milestone payment from Covidien and is due to receive royalties on sales "in line with industry standards."

Investors were disappointed with the price action of the NRIFF stock (just under fifty cents) at Thursday's open before dipping down to the low forty cent range, but that action is in line with the recent price action of stocks that have just received FDA approvals.

In my opinion, in this market investors and traders are more impatient than ever and are willing to take advantage of anticipatory, short term spikes before an approval decision (in order to bank some quick profits) before then changing course and going long after the drop that occurs at the point of "sell the news."

It's a manipulative game, in my opinion - BDSI got beat down, for instance, on Wednesday after starting to run early in the day - but it's also a game that can also benefit the small investor just as much as it benefits the big boys.

It's a lot less gut-wrenching to buy a stock for a decent price when you KNOW the approval is in rather than having to be all-in at decision time when you're sweating the decision.

In the case of NRIFF, at this point patience is needed. The drug will not be launched until the first half of 2010, so if you can get in for a decent price now and have the patience to hang one - I think that at least a double could be in order by launch time. I'm not expecting too much more than that for now, but the risk of this investment just dropped significantly; with an approved product and a strong partner, NRIFF is a pretty safe bet to rise.

Just my opinion, do your own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long NRIFF.

Briefs: CSUH, CVM, NRIFF

CSUH.ob: Celsius Holding announced on Wednesday that the company will host a third quarter conference call on Tuesday, November 10, 2009, at 4:30 PM. Financial information will most likely be released on Tuesday morning, giving investors the day to digest the information.

I'd like to see a $2 million dollar based on the increased distribution and the launch of the advertising campaign towards the end of the quarter, but with the quarter two numbers coming in at $1.2 million, a little less than $2 million may be more realistic.

I've stated this before, I think that the company and the product are gaining traction and are in the early stages of a huge growth phase, a growth phase that I believe will be in full effect by the end of the first quarter next year - based on previous comments by CEO Steve Haley.

Additionally, I think that we may see another distribution deal announced either this week or early next week, again based on previous comments by the CEO where he indicated that there are quite a few deals in the works.

As with all growing companies, the small investor wants to have a position in the stock before the huge growth numbers come out, in my opinion, because by that time you might end up chasing a run.

While I do see a possibility of a late year run taking place, I wouldn't rule out another dip into the mid thirties and I maintain my position that the first half of next year will have CSUH trading very significantly higher than it is now.

Just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



CVM: Shares of Cel Sci continue to trade with volatility, although not so much on Wednesday when shares traded relatively flat for the day and closed down only five percent; not much of a loss when you consider the much larger price swings both up and down over the past few weeks.

I would blame no one for flipping a few 'trading shares' in order to be on house's money with this one - especially if some profit is banked along the way. It's a risky proposition at this point, because recent trading and developments have me believing that news is imminent. If that news is positive, and there's a few fourth quarter developments that could move the CVM stock, you wouldn't want to be on the sidelines when it hits.

That being said, nothing is a sure thing in the market, hence the idea that the small investor needs to protect themselves by flipping a few trading shares here and there to protect their investment.

The news wires will tell the story soon enough, in my opinion, and VFC is a patient kinda guy.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



NRIFF.pk: No news was released on November 4th from Nuvo Research regarding the approval for Pennsaid, Nuvo's lead drug that has been partnered with Covidien for distribution in the United States.

The stock traded up 15% on Wednesday on anticipation of news that never came.

It's been painfully obvious that the FDA is way behind when it comes to approvals and reviews, so investors should be patient and watch the wires and not take any delay as a negative sign, in my opinion.

On the same note, it's also good to keep in mind that nothing is a sure thing in regards to the FDA or the stock market, and if you've purchased shares in the teens or low twenties, it may be wise to take a little bit off the table to realize some profit. Just my opinion, of course, and that is not an indication that I believe that the FDA will deny Pennsaid an approval, I just think it's prudent to take some profit on the way up.

For now, it's a news wire watching game.

Disclosure: VFC is long NRIFF.

Readers Respond: BLLN

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



BLLN.pk: A comment from Noah regarding Brilliant Technologies Corporation:

Hi VFC,
What are your thoughts on BLLN.PK?

Thanks,
Noah

VFC's Take: The real life behind Brilliant Technologies is Qtrax, a first of its kind digital music download service that is both FREE and LEGAL. Right off the bat I can say that the concept behind the business passes my smell test and therefor I believe that BLLN is worth a little bit of 'night on the town' money.

I am, however, a little sceptical of whether the concept can be turned into a highly profitable reality - it's a novel idea, but the reality is that I have to wonder if advertising alone will be able to support the business model. I have to believe that at some point - if Qtrax catches on - the company will have to start charging for some material in order to satisfy shareholders. Additionally, in the US market especially, it's going to be tough to compete with the likes of Apple's iTunes and Amazon's music download service. I'd also be concerned about copycat services competing with Qtrax should the service become successful and profitable; Qtrax will have to try and stay ahead of the curve. All of that being said, let's concentrate on the here and now.

According to the company's press releases, Qtrax is able to provide the downloads for free based on an "innovative ad-supported downloading model that easily directs revenue back to artists and rights holders." Sounds great and I think it is worth being in the stock now because the launch of the service throughout Asia is pending and the recently announced Baidu partnership in China is sure to draw a lot of traffic to the Qtrax site, which will translate into advertising dollars.

There is reason for concern, however. The most recent share count, as presented on the Pink Sheet site, lists BLLN as having over 600 million shares outstanding with 800 million authorized. Those numbers are over two years old, so it's difficult to accurately estimate where the market cap is today. Because of that fact, a buy now is a semi-blind buy - but that also means that some less-risk-tolerant investors will be scared away, meaning those who are in now could see some very significant gains down the road if the company becoms successful and real investors start buying in. Those who bought CSUH for less than five cents know what I'm talking about - with great risk can come great reward. Before that happens, however, BLLN must become current in filings and financials if credibility is to be had and any money other than speculative money is to enter the picture.

As is true with all speculative plays - especially those on the pinks where it's tough to judge the true number of shares - BLLN.pk is a risky play and should not be bought with anything except 'night on the town' money. The concept is sound and if Qtrax catches on, then the advertising dough should start rolling in and this stock could become a big winner.

To reach a dollar the company would need a market cap of about one billion, a number that I can't yet entertain, but I could see a push to about twenty or thirty cents over the short to mid term if the Asian launches take place as scheduled.

Any short term moves will be based on pure speculation, in my opinion, anything more won't come until investors have had a chance to look at financials once Qtrax starts bringing in some revenue.

If you're a speculator who likes this stock, it would be best to get in now while

As always, this is all just my opinion, do your own DD before buying.

Disclosure: No position.

HEB: VFC's Take on Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc.

HEB: Shares of Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. rebounded slightly on Wednesday morning after sliding down to near the one dollar mark on Tuesday after it was announced that the company would spend the next two months responding to FDA queries regarding the company's New Drug Application for Ampligen. Ampligen is up for approval as a treatment for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.

While Ampligen draws the news for Hemispherx at this time, the company also has already received FDA approval for Alferon, an injection that treats a category of sexually transmitted diseases.

Both Ampligen and Alferon are also being evaluated in various early, middle and late stage trials to measure their effectiveness in treating various chronic diseases and viral disorders.

The last time that I commented on HEB, the stock was trading for over two dollars and I thought that buying in for the first time at that point was a little too risky, in addition to my aversion to 'stock chasing', but since the stock has dropped down to the one dollar level I believe in the potential of HEB to become a nice rebound story.

I don't consider an Ampligen approval for CFS as a slam dunk, but I do consider the approval as necessary so that the company could then advance the rest of the clinical pipeline without having to raise significant funds in the future, which would equate to serious dilution, in my opinion.

At this time it is hard to judge when an FDA decision will be rendered, but it's safe to say that if Hemispherx is still responding to inquiries, and will be doing so for the next two months, then we may not see a decision until the middle of 2010.

That being said, the stock could be in for some continued volatility, so I'd buy in a bit while it is trading in the lower-$1 range and then see how it plays out. With manipulation rampant in the sector these days, a dip to below one dollar is not out of the question, but neither is a speculative spike to near two dollars.

As with all speculative stocks, it's a good idea to have already banked some profit and be fully on 'house money' by the time the FDA decision hits; if you've got some 'trading shares' on hand, then try to use them. Sometimes you'll miss out on a run if you've already sold some trading shares into a spike - but that's why you keep your 'base' shares in place, so you don't miss out completely. Conversely, if you've taken some profit during a runup, a subsequent drop in price won't hit you so bad.

All just my opinion, do your own DD before buying, but I think that HEB could turn out to be a good rebound stock if you've got a mid to long term outlook. For the short to mid term, I wouldn't expect the world out of Ampligen for CFS, but if the other trials prove successful for both Ampligen and Alferon - then HEB could become one winner of a stock.

In short: There's quite a bit of potential upside while the stock is trading for near a dollar, but don't rule out another dip to below a buck - especially if the biotech pullback continues.

Disclosure: No position.

Playing the Pullback: BDSI, CVM, AGEN, GNBT

When an entire sector - or the broad market as a whole - decides to take a dip, that's when I like to go on a buying spree and as investors of the biotech/small pharma sector well know, it's been a rough few weeks. The shorts have jumped on board and taken control after the previous runup gave many biotech stocks a liftoff earlier this year.

There's no doubt that it's tough to sit there and look at your portfolio during the pullbacks, as the stocks that you've been accumulating for the long term will lose much of the unrealized profit value - or dip into overall negative territory; sometimes pretty significantly into negative territory.

It's at times like this where the longer-term investor needs to gut it out, ignore the red (or less green) in the portfolio and add shares to those positions that have not dropped as a result of bad news, but have dropped along with a sector or market pullback.

Truth be told, we need pullbacks like this one because it gives us a chance to buy in for prices that allow the small investor to average down, reduce the overall risk a little and make it easier to bank some profits during the next run.

Additionally, the reason why we sell stocks on the way up is not only to go on vacation or eat out a whole lot more, but to make sure that there is cash on hand in the event of a pullback. Those that were all-in during the market crashed over the past couple of years missed out on a big buying opportunity late last year and early this year, but those that kept some cash on the sidelines to throw at the market while EVERYTHING was on sale made off pretty well.

In fact, if there is any positive to come from the most recent economic collapse, it's that a lot of small-time investors had a once in a lifetime opportunity to jump in low and build a stockpile of investments that only a few years ago would have been unheard of. Who would have though Citi or Ford for a dollar; GE for about six bucks? Nordstrom for under ten bucks? And on the speculative side, SIRI for five cents and a slew of biotechs for a dime or two?

The point is that it's too easy to be scared away from the market on a significant drop, and it takes fortitude to be able to buy when others are selling - as long as you're confident in your DD and confident that the stock is not dropping as a result of bad news relating specifically to that stock.



BDSI: I simply couldn't resist adding to my position of BioDelivery Sciences shares for at or around the four dollar level. With Onsolis approved and on the market (according to a PR a few weeks ago that stated the Onsolis launch was imminent), this stock should rebound nicely when real revenues start rolling in early next year. With the heavyweight marketing help of Meda behind the Onsolis launch, I think that there's a good chance that significant revenue will start rolling in that quick.

BioDelivery also has potential milestone payments coming the company's way and a pipeline of possibilities utilizing the now validated BEMA technology.

I'm a very patient investor, and while I'm sitting out this pullback, I'll be adding to my position of BDSI. While I do consider BDSI a growth stock for the long term at this point, I also consider a short to mid term speculative play because I think a quick double from these levels could be in order with the right news release.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.



CVM: The saga of Cel Sci continues, but I couldn't resist adding shares at eighty seven cents on Monday as the stock continued to slide. No news has been released to justify the recent price action, yet with so much possible news pending over the short to mid term, I couldn't help but add to my position of the stock near the low of the day.

Over the years I have accumulated CVM with strictly a long term outlook, but the lower the stock slides, then it becomes a decent short term play as well.

According to an article released by BioMedReports on Monday, officials at Cel Sci will release an update on the H1N1 LEAPS program "very soon", and many longs of the stock have been 'long' awaiting an update. There are impatient investors out there who want to see the company respond to the day to day action of the stock price, but I'm the type that doesn't believe should issue news unless it's 'quality' news; meaning no fluff.

Remember, earlier this year I thought that Cel Sci was issuing some 'fluff' with the early swine flu PRs, but the one PR that indicated that the FDA had cleared the company to conduct some initial testing is the one that validated the 'LEAPS to potentially treat H1N1' platform, in my opinion.

Additional news that should be released within the next couple of months regarding Cel Sci is the validation of the Baltimore area facility and the commencement of the Multikine Phase III trial.

It's tough to predict day to day price action in a stock that is being played such as CVM, but I'm sure of one thing - the lower this one goes, then the more that I will buy.

My ultimate horizon for investing in CVM is for the long term - to see how Multikine plays out - but there's enough potential news that could hit the wires over the short term that the impatient investor could also be quickly satisfied.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



AGEN: The recent news regarding Oncophage in Europe hit the stock pretty hard, but the long term potential of Antigenics is still alive, in my opinion.

The glioma trials look promising enough to date, I don't believe that Oncophage for the treatment of kidney cancer is DOA just yet and QS-21 is alive and well.

While I do believe that any positive news from Russia regarding the Oncophage launch in that country (combined with news of Russian government reimbursement) - would be good for both the company and the stock, I more consider AGEN in the 'Phase II' portion of my portfolio - alongside PCYC, PPHM and KERX.

I'll wait and see how low this one goes before adding more shares, but I consider Russia news a possible short term mover, QS-21 updates a mid term mover and Oncophage a long term mover.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.



GNBT: I continue to look at Generex as a speculative mid to long term play, based mostly on the potential of Oral-Lyn, but I'm set on shares for now unless the stock dips any further. I bought at sixty five cents, fifty five cents, so I'll probably wait and see if we see forty five cents before buying again.

I maintain my position that I think that GNBT will move up to the dollar mark as soon as either the sector starts to turn around or positive Phase III data is released (interim or actual), whichever comes first.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

Briefs: CSUH, TTNP

CSUH.ob: Third quarter results are pending for Celsius Holdings, and investors will be looking for a significant increase in sales and revenue growth to complement the recent growth in distribution. It's a given, at this point, that expenses will be up with the nationwide advertising campaign in full effect, but I firmly believe that the advertising blitz is a necessity to ensure the future growth of the company.

It's also expected, based on previous comments by Celsius CEO Steve Haley, that additional distribution announcements are pending for the fourth quarter of this year and even more will be announced in the first quarter of 2010.

I'm slowly changing my mindset of considering CSUH as simply a speculative play and starting to consider it as a long term growth pick. That's just my opinion, but I like the direction in which this company is heading and - as always - if a big celebrity were to jump on board, then things could really get interesting.

As for the pending results, any number right around $2 million in revenue is a great third quarter, in my opinion, as the company is still in the early stages of significant growth.

While I won't rule out a fairly significant end of year run in CSUH, as news and distribution is announced, i think that the big move will come in the first half of 2010. In the meantime, I'll add to my position on any dips back into the mid-thirty cent range; if we don't see those levels again then I'll just wait for the ride. If we were to drop lower than that - I'll be happy to add even more.

For now, I'll be looking forward to digesting the 3Q numbers when they are released.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



TTNP.pk: Titan Pharmaceuticals was mentioned in a weekend article by the Washington Post that highlighted the CEO of Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Mihael Polymeropoulos, and Fanapt - Vanda's recently approved drug to treat schizophrenia of which Titan will reap in up to 10% in royalties.

While Novartis emerged as Vanda's partner to commercialize the product, it's long been my speculation that Titan will eventually be gobbled up by a larger company, and the following comment by Titan CEO Sunil Bhonsle in the Post article does nothing to stave off my speculation: "There tends to be a pattern where smaller companies do a lot of the innovation, then the larger companies acquire them at a certain point," he said.

I'm just waiting to see where that "certain point" is for Titan.

With the latest Probuphine trial paid for by an NIH grant and Fanapt royalites ready to start rolling in early next year, Titan's stock continues to remain in a prime position to spike, whether a buyout occurs or not.

I still suspect that buyout talks are in the works, but if Titan does go it alone, then I would expect a move to a prominent exchange to take place.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.

Dendreon (DNDN) Re-Files For Provenge Approval

DNDN: Shares of Dendreon (DNDN) traded as much as five percent higher on Monday morning after the company announced that it has re-submitted its application for the regulatory approval of Provenge, a therapeutic prostate cancer vaccine that was called 'approvable' by the FDA in 2007. According to the press release, the company expects to hear an answer from the FDA at some point in mid-2010.

In 2007 the FDA - after deciding to wait until the ongoing IMPACT trial was completed before reconsidering the approval decision - indicated that they would approve Provenge if certain survivability points were realized; and those points were met in the Phase III trial, so things look good for the chances of a Provenge approval.

It's also important to note, however, that the FDA is still a federal regulatory agency consisting of a bunch of government employees, so nothing is a sure thing - especially in the world of cancer immunotherapy. That being said, I think that the chances of an ultimate Provenge approval are pretty good, considering recent events and past comments by the FDA.

If Provenge is once again pushed aside by the FDA, then I would expect to see a public outcry larger than the one that was ignited in 2007 that saw patients and investors alike join forces to lobby the agency for answers.

In March of that year and FDA advisory committee voted 13-4 that Provenge was effective and 17-0 that Provenge was safe. It was later discovered that two of the Doctors on the panel that voted against the effectiveness of the treatment - and who also subsequently lobbied heavily for the FDA to deny Provenge approval - were found to have previously undisclosed financial interests in companies in direct competition to Dendreon. If you need evidence of questionable ethics by those in positions of regulatory power, look no further than the Provenge Story.

Broad market conditions will dictate the immediate future of the DNDN stock, in my opinion, but I expect the share price to approach the $35 level leading up to the FDA decision in mid-2010.

Additionally, if Provenge is finally granted approval, then it could lead to a nice rally in the cancer immunotherapy sector as a whole.

I continue to believe that immunotherapy is the 'next big thing' in cancer treatment, and a Provenge approval could be the event that brings the treatment to the mainstream.

As always, it's important to remember that the patients in need of the treatment receive the greatest benefits of these treatments; any financial gains enjoyed by investors is secondary in comparison.

Disclosure: No position.