Readers Respond: BIEL, AGEN, Random Comments

BIEL: A comment from Shep regarding BioElectronics Corporation:

...says the anonymous poster w/ nothing verifiable to back up the statement. Umm-hmm.

Still loading up on BIEL. A little browsing led me to a story where one of the company top dogs states they are getting ready to move from the trial and development phase to more of a marketing phase. More ads, product recognition; that kind of thing. Coupled with impending FDA approvals (which as far as I can tell are nearly a done deal) and this thing could pop pretty soon. An independent analyst recently projected the company will trade at between .30 and .50 cents w/in 6 mos. (Check InvestorHub for the link). .07 could look like a steal next year. I'm in.



VFC's Take: Shep's initial comment refers to the first comment on the following post: Biotech Pullback

I like Shep's style, short and to the point; unlike mine, where sometimes I'm long in getting to the point.

My own comments to that poster who is predicting doom and gloom, I'll take your insight - there's a few out there on CNBC and FOX Business that talk the same doom and gloom, but while I consider a pullback possible, I don't see the same crash that we saw in March materializing again. The worst is behind us, in my opinion.

If your scenario were to play out, however, there might be a couple of biotechs and small pharma that go under, but I think that most of them with real potential in the pipeline have taken advantage of the recent run and have secured financing. I appreciate your comments, but I think that after Thursday's GDP report, a pullback to drastic scenarios is out of the picture.

Will the market retrace a bit? Yes. So have a bit of cash on hand to throw in - but don't fear rock bottom any more, in my opinion.

As far as BIEL is concerned, I'm with Shep. I'm not here for today's or tomorrow's gains. By this time next year - barring any unexpected setbacks - I think BIEL for 8 cents is going to look like a steal that investors look back on and say, "Why didn't I buy?"

BioElectronics is slowly moving from 'Idea' phase to 'reality' phase, and I do believe that as Acetaminophin moves out, ActiPatch has a good opportunity to move in.

I'm accumulating while this stock is below seven cents.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Readers Respond: CVM, Stock Tips, Sub Five Cent Stocks

A comment from Nick "Confused Investor" regarding CVM:

Hello again VFC. Thanks for the reply! Your "house visit" example makes sense. Nobody gets invited to my house calling my wife a "ho" either. :) Wasn't expecting that when I read your reply and it still has me chuckling. Thanks for putting things in terms us "newbies" can understand.

I guess you can call me one of the ones who "missed the boat" on CVM, not because I did not believe in them but because I was not even into biotechs then. Even after I saw what the stock did in Sept. I was a believer and thought it wasn't too late to get in with what I've read about Multikine, CEL-1000 and CEL-2000 L.E.A.P.S. especially since their new facility and the progress/finalizing as of recently can only mean good things. Since becoming interested in biotechs my first two stocks I bought into were CVM and AGEN in late Sept. after doing my own DD. You can imagine how my biotech porfolio looks right now but I didn't get into the market thinking it would be all sunny days, so I'm staying optimistic since I bought in for the long haul on both. Still, its been a tough start.

Recently I've read news of a lawsuit against CVM in an SEC filing for Item 2.04. Any reason to be alarmed about this and do these type of allegations happen often?

Thanks again,
Nick (Confused Investor)
P.S. I'll be sure to click a few of your google ads whenever I read your blogs, least I can do for your time.



VFC's Take: First of all, I think we've all been confused at the beginning. Getting into stock investing, especially biotech investing, is overwhelming and it takes a whole lot of 'learn from your mistakes' experiences before you find a comfort zone.

That's why I like the feedback and input we get here on the blog, everyone has a chance to share experiences and strategies because no one gets it right all the time. It's also good to have a few like-minded investors to keep each other grounded.

Also, when it starts to feel like it's taking over your life too much and you're losing sleep, risking too much money or just plane off your game, it's time to take a step back and take some time away from the game.

Once, I even sold everything, went on vacation and then came back and started over. If you're not enjoying your investing, then you're not doing it right.

Now, on to your comments: Let me clarify for those new to the board when I use the term "missed the boat" with regards to CVM and AGEN. Both of these stocks were trading for under thirty cents for as low as twenty cents over the past year. It wasn't until AGEN hit the over-three dollar level and CVM hit the over-two dollar level that the riff raff came out from the peanut gallery, slaughtered the message and shorted the stock. These guys were nowhere around when the stocks were at twenty cents. That's what I mean about missing the boat, maybe I'm using it a little bit outdated now that both stocks have been cut roughly in half since their highs.

However, there's quite a few who were accumulating heavily when the stocks were trading for dimes, and many of those investors are still on board because they believe in the long term prospects of both companies.

If you're a trader, then you're unhappy right now. If you're a long term kind of investor, then you've got the patience to ride the storm - it's as easy as that. As long as you base your decisions on your own DD and base your DD on the facts, then you'll be fine. In the end, those that live day to day in the market can duke it out daily, but I think that if a company does have something to offer, then eventually there will be no choice for everyone but to accept that fact. Sometimes it takes years - lots of years; some investors can't wait that long.

As for the lawsuit - it'll become an issue when it becomes an issue. This is America - we are known throughout the world as the country that loves to sue. Any Tom, Dick or Harry can file a lawsuit in this country so I have a hard time taking them seriously until they become serious.

If we can have 'analysts' issuing fake PRs, opinion-based bloggers claiming to be journalists and the 'elite' in our country handing billions of dollars over to Bernie Madoff, then I'm inclined to believe that someone can file a bogus lawsuit to join the rest of the misfit gang out there and knock a stock down so that they can buy in cheap.

Cel Sci is pretty good about not responding to BS - and I like that strategy because they shouldn't respond to BS - and they haven't responded to this suit yet, so let's wait and see.

Regardless, it doesn't change how I see the potential of this company for the future.

And yes, hang onto a biotech stock long enough and there will be some sort of a lawsuit involved at some point. Maybe that's and exaggeration, but they are quite common, in my opinion, because it's so easy to file suit in this country. Just look up "why health care costs are so high" in the dictionary and you'll see "because litigation is out of control in America" will be right there.

Thanks for the comment.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



An anonymous comment:

Dear VFC,
Enjoy your information and common sense.
Where do you find these interesting penny stocks? Do You have special news letters, sites, or screens that you frequently use?

Thanks You!

VFC's Take:

Thanks for the comment, click on the following link to a recent post where I responded to a reader who had the same question:

Finding the Speculative Plays



A comment regarding sub five cent stocks:

Sooo...what 3 or 4 sub-five cent stocks would you suggest as a starting point for someone to research?

VFC's Take: Readers have been throwing quite a few tips this way, but I haven't necessarily re-loaded my sub five cent stock portfolio since the likes of BIEL, TTNP, CSUH, MHAN and MHTX started rising. However, a few that I have in my portfolio still are, and I only use my 'night on the town' money to play with these:

MFLI.pk, NPDT.pk, SPNG.pk and MCET.pk. BIEL is another one that is close to the five cent mark. However, there's a load of these stock out there if you start looking. None do I consider safe bets, but if these things pop a cent then you're sitting on a thirty percent gain right there. I don't recommend going crazy in the sub five cent stocks, but if you can find one or two to follow then you can do pretty good if you play them right, in my opinion.

Do your own DD though, don't buy these solely on anyone else's tip.

Thanks for the comment.

A Reader Comment That Put VFC on a Roll - This Post is Not Suitable for all Readers

An anonymous comment regarding CVM:

I agree with you completely on CVM. Anyone following this company for more than 6 months should be able to recognize the intentionally misleading information being put out there. I view the sell off as an opportunity to buy in again for a replay. There is plenty of positive news in the pipeline for the coming months. And by that time those who were in limboland will finally catch up on their research. One has to wonder why DNDN is trading at more than estimated future sales while still building their capacity and CVM will already be capable of almost 2 Billion worth of Multikine at the outset. If the naysayers are so certain that Cel-Sci's technologies have no potential perhaps they should vow to never accept any such treatment.

VFC's Take: I wanted to post this comment, not because whoever wrote it obviously falls in line with my views on the potential of Cel Sci and the company's products, but because the last statement touches on a subject that I truly believe in.

In today's age of greed and money - money - money, it takes a life changing experience to get some people to wake up and realize what is really important in life. Sure, it's nice to get ahead with a few bucks, but at the end of the day - if you don't have your health, family, friends, compassion - then you've got nothing, no matter how much money you've got in the bank.

You know what, though? The big and bad tough guys that make a living ripping off the little guy, they're the ones that crack when they realize that they're on their last leg; or rottin' away in jail; or holding the hand of their child as they take their last breath after being stricken with a fatal disease. They're the ones that can't take it when they realize that they never got it.

Read on, if you will, but I'm about to get a little graphic:

I think that everyone should have the opportunity to visit somewhere where people really have nothing, but always have something - each other. If you can't visit, talk to the people who have experienced the other side, and read their books - first hand accounts, not some book written by a 'scholar' who has never seen life from the gutter.

Whether it's a family in Colombia that has to live day in and day out under the fear that some narco terrorist is going to come and rape their women and steal their children to boost the numbers of their guerrilla organization that proclaims to be fighting for a cause, but in reality they're just big time drug dealers.

Learn about the remnants of the former Yugoslavia, a place where blood has been shed for thousands of years over ethnicity - and just ten years ago neighbors killed neighbors after a little booze drinking just because it was fun.
(Read: Not my Turn to Die, or Srebrenica: Record of a War Crime.

Track the stories of the hundreds of thousands of families whose children are lost to the sex-slave trade. It could be your child who comes up missing - and is forced to do despicable things for the rest of their lives, or until their too old to be useful, and then they're just 'disposed of'.

Or think about the poor young girls in the Eastern Bloc who think that they are going off to earn money to send home to their siblings, parents and grandparents, who are then taken from their new location, injected with drugs and forced to 'hook' for nothing to 'pay' for their 'freedom'.

War and death spread across Africa, the Middle East, our troops fighting in foreign lands to keep some of these people from exterminating each other - it doesn't end.

But it doesn't hit home for too many people until it's too late. September 11th - how many people changed their lives after 9/11? For some the change was temporary, but for others - that day will live forever as a reminder of what life really means.

NEVER FORGET

Then there's the worst feeling of them all - those close to you that are stricken by tragedy; there one day, gone the next. Car accidents, plane crashes, murder - it happens every day.

Then there's the "C" word - cancer. Some family members endure months and months of watching their loved one die a slow, painful and miserable death. Fathers bury sons, sons bury fathers, mothers and daughters - it hits everyone.

And some people will never get it, and I don't mean never get cancer, I mean some people will never understand.

Ego, money, power - it consumes the world. But it's important to keep things in perspective. Who's who and what's what.

So, back to the comment at hand: If the naysayers are so certain that Cel-Sci's technologies have no potential perhaps they should vow to never accept any such treatment.

Will the naysayers ever vow to turn the treatment away? Of course not. Most likely they wouldn't even recognize the name of the treatment if they needed it. I'm not talking about those who just don't believe in the science, I'm talking about the 'swarm' who move from stock to stock. These people have no idea what Multikine is, to them CVM is just another stock symbol - a company whose stock rose very quickly and is an easy target to get shorted back down. They don't know Multikine or LEAPS...with DNDN they had no idea what Provenge was. All these people see is dollar signs. Dollar this, dollar that, gimme another buck.

The retail investor is just another clown holding a few shares and companies working on potentially life changing products are just good targets to make a buck.

However, the games are a reality of life and the small investor has to stay on top of the game and be sure to realize profits when they can. If a company has a good product, eventually it will pay out - regardless of how many games are played.

Am I bringing morality into stock investing? No. I'm keeping it real; it helps me to remain grounded day in and day out and it keeps me in check when I start to get too greedy with my investing. Everyone needs something to keep them in line, because the free market can become very consuming - and when you become consumed by something, then you start to lose. You think you're winning, but you're really losing - and you don't realize it until it's too late.

I've seen some of the best that life has to offer and I've seen of the worst, and I will say this - the fact that I can sit here and write this blog and the fact that you can sit there and read it, I think we're pretty dam lucky.

Enjoy stock investing, treat it as a hobby, not as a necessity and if you disagree with others about a stock, then disagree on the facts. The real facts. Don't come in VFC's House with lies, misleading information and untruths because VFC has no time for you and I see right through you. Save it for the Yahoo! boards.

If it's attention you want, then go hang out with Mom, because I bet she misses you.

As for the rest who are hear to share ideas, strategies and tips - let's continue to keep it real, we only got one shot at this.

For those new to blog, welcome to VFC's House.

And finally, for those who know me personally and are sitting their rolling their eyes right now because they've heard this whole story a million times - nope, haven't had a drink.

But I might pour myself one right now.

Readers Respond: SPPI

SPPI: A comment from Arie regarding Spectrum Pharmaceuticals:

Hi VFC,

I have a question regarding SPPI,

I heard from seeking alpha guy justin that Spectrum may have cash around 156 million at the time.

So looking at fundamental side, it is very unlikely that stock will be drop 10% at this point, otherwise the cash in hand will be the same with market cap.

My other question is Am I wrong considering SPPI undervalued by looking at the instituional buy at 7.55/share since I believe they make better research than me. so then, I conclude SPPI price at the time is very good buy for long term play.

You considering buying at below 4, is it base on technical stand point?

Thanks, I appreciate your response



VFC's Take: Regarding fundamentals, technicals, common sense and logic - I think that a lot of that has been thrown out the window in this highly speculative and volatile market, especially in the biotech/small pharma sector.

I agree that another 10% drop wouldn't make too much sense - and I'm not using technicals when I say that I think the stock has a good chance to hit the below four dollar mark - but with the general market sliding and speculative money leaving the market, the shorts and naysayers are using any bad news that they can to drive stocks down as far as they can go. And it just so happens that the most recent big news out there regarding Spectrum is the Fusilev news.

I believe that Insmed (INSM) was actually trading at below the cash on hand value earlier this year, so I think investors and shorts also look at the fact that the cash pile is going to deteriorate if the company is losing money.

As for the institutional buy, I see your point, but there's quite a few institutions that have been under water for some time during the market crash. If an institutional buy is what is used to place a true value on a stock, then investing would be easy. I rely more on my own DD to make my investing decisions more than anyone else - including institutions; if your DD tells you that SPPI is undervalued, then I say jump in.

I also think that it is a good rebound play and if BDSI were not also trading for right around four bucks (even more of an illogical event, in my opinion) then I may have picked up some SPPI. Right now I'm throwing my 'rebound' money at BDSI.

Long term, I think SPPI is a decent enough play. As I said before, based on the fact that Zevalin has posted year after year of declining sales, I'm not convinced that it will be a blockbuster; but the first line treatment should significantly boost the bottom line.

Thanks for the comment.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: MSBT

MSBT.ob: A comment from Lenny regarding MedaSorb:

Hi Vinny,

Hope all is well!

I have a small position in MSBT and was thinking up increasing it, however the # of shares including warrants and preferreds (since they would be 'in the money') has me a little concerned.

If you have a chance and can review this link and their 10Q, what do you think?

The SEC file is: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1175151/000114420408068974/v134279_s1.htm

It seems to indicate a much higher share count when you take it into consideration, am I missing something?

Let us know when you get a chance,

Tks!

Lenny



VFC's Take: I've been watching the MSBT action also, and the warrants and preferred are definitely something to consider, but it depends on when the holders start converting that will determine how much of an effect it has on the stock price, in my opinion. However, that is a large amount of potential outstanding shares. Because of that consideration I'm planning on selling a large portion of my remaining shares into the run up that I think will occur later this year or early 2010.

I have to believe, however, that all of those preferred and warrants would not be converted at the same time, so I'm not too worried about them - especially if CytoSorb proves successful because I think that the stock price is going to trade significantly higher than a dollar if the CytoSorb trial goes well - with full conversion or not.

What does have me sceptical about this stock right now is that the MSBT stock reminds me of the airplane that overshot its destination last week - I think the clowns are in charge. I don't mean management, I mean the big players that have been playing the stock over the past few weeks.

If the recent spike to over forty cents was simply the result of speculation on a positive outcome of the CytoSorb trial, then I don't think that a full retracement to twenty cents would have occured. More likely, in my opinion, it was a combination of speculation and some swing/momentum/day traders bringing additional hype to the stock; most of whom started bailing at forty cents to go look for the next quick trade.

While the pull back has created a nice entry point for those that may not have a position, I'm holding any buys unless we reach the low teens. I'm still set with my remaining sub ten cent shares and it'll take a huge bargain to get me to buy more. I'm not convinced that we will see the low teens again (barring any bad news), but I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip into the high teens.

Thanks for posting the information and your insight.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

Readers Respond: BDSI, CVM

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



BDSI: A comment from Alejandro regarding BioDelivery Sciences:

Hi VFC
How are you doing?
what about BDSI? it is near to my target price, I want to load up some shares...Is it possible that the decline is due the low volume of trading and general market drop?...

Thanks!!!

VFC's Take: I enjoy the opportunity to buy shares of BDSI for under five bucks, but the prospects of buying for a level at or below four bucks is, in my opinion, a gift.

The broad market, espeically the biotech/small pharma sector, is dealing with a turn in sentiment after reaching the DOW 10,000 mark and that could be a contributor to the decline in share price.

Regardless of the price action of the stock, let's look at the facts: milestone payments due, Onsolis approved and commercial launch imminent, heavyweight Onsolis partner, solid drug delivery system that was validated with Onsolis approval and the pipeline is solid and in tact.

I only like the fact that the Meda partnership materialized quickly; that tells me that they see immediate potential with Onsolis, contrary to NovaDel who took over a year to find someone to commercialize their product.

Is there risk associated? Sure, it's the stock market. Maybe Meda will fail to fully realize the commercial potential of Onsolis on the open market and there's always the potential of a market crash, but the days of speculating with BDSI are over, in my opinion, and the facts alone should dictate that BDSI is now looking like a good long term growth pick.

It would also be foolish to ignore the wild car, in my opinion; I find it funny that when TheStreet.com decided to go positive on a biotech/small pharma stock for a change it was when a large hedge fund, which was in the process of exiting their position from the stock, could benefit from a price boost.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.



CVM: A comment from Confused Investor regarding Cel Sci Corp:

Hey VFC! I have a question for you about CVM. I'm young and new to trading (about 2 months now) and find your blogs very helpful. I do own shares in CVM and I liked the company before I started reading your posts. I've found all of your advice to be unbiased and informative but recently and only about this stock (CVM) have things started getting hairy.
There seems to be a lot of controversy over this stock. Seems like people either absolutely love this stock and you or think its complete scum and that you're somehow in cahoots. Of course with you being involved with the tour of the new facility it only made allegations worse about you being a booster of the stock.
I want to make it clear that I'm not questioning the integrity of you or your blog. I find it very helpful and I appreciate what you do for the inexperienced investor like myself since that kind of advice is hard to find. I guess what I'm asking is what in the world is going on with this stock?! The more good news I read about it the lower the price and volume seems to go. I follow other biotechs and there seems to be much less controversy and their good/bad news don't seem inversely related to their price/volume like they do for CVM.

Thanks,
Confused Investor



VFC's Take: Dear Confused, Thanks for the comments. First of all, if you are as new to the market as you claim, then you'll have to get used to the volatility and scenarios that you've seen play out over the last couple of months with CVM - especially if you're going to stick with trading biotech stocks.

It's just a part of the game with this easily manipulated sector. Also, keep in mind that a lot of big players and hedge funds lost a lot of money during the market crash and these entities will stop at nothing to make that money back because it's their own livelihood at stake, after all. The small or long term investor is nothing but some clown holding a few shares that they want in the big scheme of things, so the small investor needs to be that much more confident in his or her DD to be able to stomach the volatility and either accumulate for the long term, buy the dips, or try to play the volatility and pick up some crumbs that the big boys leave behind. The key point here is to do your own DD and stick to the facts. Don't let the haters that are late to the game scare your shares away from you.

As for why Cel Sci went with BioMedReports for the tour of the facility, I can only speculate. The fact that I was in the area helped, but looking at it realistically, if I was Cel Sci and I had to make a decision about who's going to come and visit my house, I'll put this scenario out there:

If one guy is constantly smak-talking my family, and then suggesting that my reality does not exist - even while that reality is present every day, then there's no chance that that guy is coming anywhere near VFC's House. Essentially, that is what a few entities have decided to do with Cel Sci, for whatever reason - but I'm inclined that the attackers of Cel Sci are making out financially somehow, because why else would you pick on a company that is developing two potentially life saving treatments - unless you're just that much of a cruel and heartless coward.

On the other hand, if I've got another entity that, to date, has reported the facts as the have been presented, and then made opinions based on the available facts, then that guy has a better chance of seeing the house, meeting the family and petting the dog than the guy who spreads mis-information.

After all, some people you can trust and some you can't. Unfortunately, in today's day and age, the people that you can trust are becoming fewer and farther in between.

That's the scenario, you figure out the who's who.

Let's also take another fact into consideration, there are a lot of people who are very late to the game with Cel Sci and they are pissed off that they missed the boat. It's natural, when you're on the wrong end of a stock that just skyrocketed (in terms of percentages) to want to attack those that made off pretty good, and then pressure the stock down in order to make money off the short side; but remember that it wasn't long ago that this stock was trading for twenty cents and the peanut gallery was nowhere to be found. In fact, CVM traded in that twenty to forty cent range for quite some time and again, the peanut gallery was nowhere in sight - these guys only showed up after the fact. If Cel Sci and its technology was really that bad, then why wait to do the 'good deed' of informing the investment world of how bad an investment it really is.

Poimt is: Stick to the facts. VFC is just a guy with an opinion and a computer. The only compensation I get for this blog is when readers click on the Google text ads I'll make a little bit and if people buy products via the picture ads, then I get a small commission. In reality, the blog is just a hobby. Keeps me off the vodka tonics. I get no compensation from any company that I have ever written about and I don't care to ever do that because then I've got to compromise being me - and if I'm not calling it like I see it, then I'm not being VFC.

Do your own DD and be aware of the difference between 'pumping & bashing' and having a 'positive or negative outlook.'

Pumping and bashing generally do not include facts or information. For instance, if you read something like, "this stock is going to ten bucks" and that assertation is not supported by and reasons as to why - then that could be construed as a pump.

If someone were to say that "in my opinion, this stock will be a twenty dollar stock a few years down the road because I think that Multikine will be successful in Phase III trials, based on the solid results of the Phase II trials in addition to the fact that the FDA may approve the emergency use of the company's H1N1 treatment", then that is called - because it is based on combination of potential events and actual facts - having "a positive outlook."

Having a negative outlook would be, "I don't think that Multikine will make it to market because I'm not convinced that the Phase II results were as successful as the company makes it sound and it's a tough market for cancer immunotherapy stocks right now." A 'bash' would be "get out now, this stock is going to drop!"

There's a huge difference and any investor needs to weed through the BS. That's what the ignore button is for on the message boards.

Lastly, the peanut gallery and the such were nowhere around before the stock became a ten-bagger in under a year. The fact that they're here now should be a telling enough sign of why they showed up.

Thanks for the comments.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Readers Respond: Biotech Sector Pullback

A comment from Kenneth regarding a pullback in the biotech sector:

Hi VFC,

I noticed that the biotech sector seems to be retracing downwards after its recent run. Recent press releases from several biotech companies have not garnered much response in terms of upward price movement (for eg. AGEN's glioma trial results and Peregrine's breast cancer trial results to name a few). I have not been investing in biotech stocks long enough to know if this is just an expected retracement and that the biotech sector will recover soon or that the bubble for small biotech companies has burst and won't recover for some time. Would appreciate your input.

Thanks,
Kenneth.

VFC's Take: The general market sentiment has turned negative again, in my opinion, after disappointing unemployment and economic numbers continue to dominate the headlines. Things were looking pretty good when the DOW touched 10,000, but I would think that many investors also thought that it was time to take some profits off the table.

Because the biotech sector did enjoy such a run up, it only makes sense that it's that sector from where profits would be pulled first; it's been my observation over the years that speculative money is the first to leave the market when the sentiment turns negative - especially after run ups like the one enjoyed this year by the biotechs.

In addition to pure profit taking, let's not forget the involvement of the big boys. It's a lot easier for the big boys to manipulate the relatively small floats of small and low priced biotechs, so after stretching the profits as far as they can to the upside, the big boys will go short and pressure the stock back down, rather than just selling an moving on. That trading action causes the huge price swings in a relatively short time that has many jittery investors on edge right now.

Rather than complain about the games, I like taking the strategy of playing along with them; sell into the spike when the big boys run it and then try to buy low when the big boys short - I call it 'picking up the bread crumbs that the big boys leave behind.' I think that we, as small investors, have an advantage over the big boys when they play their games because we can move in and out of a stock a lot quicker than they can.

However, to stay on top of the games takes time, patience and a high tolerance for risk and volatility. Additionally, if one were to try and play every stock that way, it could get pretty consuming and stressful. I pick a few from the portfolio where my entry strategy has me trading in and out with a handful of trading shares while others I tend to simply accumulate for the long term, unless I see a spike that I simply cannot refuse.

As for your examples of news having no impact on the stock price, in regards to AGEN, I think the fact that the glioma trial is only a Phase II update doesn't impress investors much; Phase III, maybe. Also, there were a lot of investors that were in AGEN simply anticipating an EMEA decision and when that decision didn't turn out the way they wanted, they bailed out and left. At that point, in my opinion, the big boys shorted the stock heavily and rode it down; the question there, in my opinion, is why they did not push it down to the sub-$1 level. It makes me think that there is either another leg down coming or that Antigenics may have some other news pending that could support the current, or higher, prices.

As for PPHM, the stock rose a bit after the reverse split before coming down after the news. It was also a Phase II update and in this day and age of looking to make huge gains every night, Phase II updates will not impress anyone aside from the small investor who has a long term and PATIENT outlook.

My take on the biotech pullback summed up in a short sentence: I don't mind it because it's a good time to buy those stocks that you're looking to accumulate for the long term at a 'discount'.

In today's age - the age of true greed - the small investor has to be more confident than ever in their own DD to survive the volatility and the manipulation. This is the age where people would walk across the street, kick an innocent bystander in the back in order to swipe his or her last dollar and then walk home and brag that they pulled in an extra couple of bucks that day. Just because this scenario is played out in the anonymous cyberspace of the Internet and stock manipulation does not make it any less ethical.

That being said, it's a fact of life that you've got to deal with and that's why the small investor has to try and keep up with the games that big boys play. However, if you're confident in your DD, research and the facts, then you'll have the stamina to hold through the storm; eventually, a stock price will trade in line with the potential of a product, drug, treatment or service if the technology,science and/or market trend is real - it may just be a bumpy ride getting to that point.

As for the big boys? Let them play their games. If you're in doubt that there are coordinated attacks on stocks, take a look at the message boards when dozens of new IDs show up and spew out BS hours before market open and then for the duration of the time that they want the stock to go down. After their mission is accomplished, the board goes silent and the only ones that are still left are the long timers. It's like a swarm of locusts (or just a few clowns sitting on a computer) that fly in to incite panic, fear and confusion until their job is done.

Also, watch those videos by Jim Cramer on You Tube where he explains how it's done.
Straight from the big guys mouth regarding his days at the hedge funds.

The games will be played, it's just up to us to pick up the crumbs.

This is all just my own opinions based on experiences and observations; I call it like I see it.

Thanks for the comment, Kenneth.

Stock Watch: NVD, SPPI

NVD: Shares of NovaDel Pharma Inc traded 25% higher during the after hours trading session on Tuesday after the company finally announced news of a partnership for one of its already-approved drugs.

In the deal, Mist Acquisition, LLC will manufacture and commercialize NitroMist, NovaDel's spray treatment for angina pectoris, and pay NovaDel [copied from the press release] "a $1,000,000 licensing fee upon execution of the agreement, milestone payments totaling an additional $1,000,000 over the next twelve months and ongoing performance payments of seventeen percent (17%) of net sales."

As readers of the blog well know, I grew impatient while waiting for NovaDel to come through with a licensing agreement for either NitroMist or Zolpimist and sold a while back, but it looks like those that held on through the quiet time will start seeing some rewards for their patience.

The reason that I had sold was not entirely because of impatience (I know, I usually preach practicing patience), but I also considered the fact that potential partners did not consider the potential of either product to be significant enough to put down the up-front money required to commercialize them.

I was wrong on that point, as it turns out, since NovaDel did eventually find a partner and, with a market cap of just over sixteen million (as of market close Tuesday), it may be safe to consider the fact that NVD is moving closer to becoming a long term growth pick rather than a speculative play.

I'm now intrigued to see how a possible Zolpimist deal works out, and if the stock doesn't jump too much on Wednesday, I may pick up a few shares before any Zolpimist deal is announced. However, I would not be surprised to see dilution through a stock offering following any price spike, but there's room to work with while the market cap is low, in my opinion.

What not long ago I considered dead money, I now see some potential in NovaDel and its stock. I'm not going crazy with NVD, but with a pipeline that is still in tact and a licensing deal announced, I think that a buy for under fifty cents would eventually pay off for investors; if not in the short term, then definitely over the long term - barring any significant set backs.

I'm still a bit sceptical - a licensing deal was a long time in the making - but Tuesday's announcement is a good start and lays a foundation on which to build.

Disclosure: No position.



SPPI: I received a lot of comments and feedback regarding Spectrum Pharmaceuticals earlier this month, and in my response I stated that I was looking for a buy price of under four dollars.

The stock closed Tuesday at $4.12, not yet under four, but worth watching because the lower the stock drops, the more I believe that those investors who are speculating on a rebound will jump back in.

With the stock trading this close to four dollars, I can change course and call it a good "rebound" buying point, but I'd hold back on going in big just yet; maybe pick up a few shares now (maybe a third of what you want to put into the stock) and then try to average down.

That keeps an investor happy if the stock has a premature rebound, but also keeps money on the sidelines if the opportunity arises to average down.

I still don't consider Zevalin a blockbuster - even as a first line treatment - but you'd have to believe that sales will start increasing again instead of decreasing. I'm also looking forward to the company's meeting with the FDA regarding Fusilev. I believe that an additional trial will be required, but the FDA is so unpredictable - especially these days - that the news may not be that dire.

I wouldn't expect too much in terms of short term gains with SPPI, but at the four dollar or below level, I think we've got a decent mid to long term story brewing.

As always, just my own opinion, do your own DD before investing.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: GNBT

GNBT: A comment from Myles regarding Generex:

In your September 21st commentary you said phase III results for GNBT should be out at the end of this year or beginning of next year. Will this be preliminary results because the government website says Primary Completion date is July 2010. Here is the link:

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00668850?term=generex&rank=1

This is also a good research link to bookmark for other company studies, just cut off the link after the .gov suffix before you save it.

What other websites would you suggest for people to bookmark as their "investing tool box"? Perhaps appreciative readers can offer their most useful ones too as "pay back". It's us versus the pros. Our money is just as green!

Thanx,

Myles

Another comment regarding GNBT:

Do you think it time to accumulate some more GNBT now that it took a bit of a dip from the $0.75 area? When do you think the pre Phase III news run up will begin? If it runs to over a dollar as you suggest, that would be a fairly decent short term return.
Cavaet emptor.
Thanks!

VFC's Take: Thanks for pointing that out, Myles, there should be an 'interim' in there; it is interim results that I expect to see either later this year or Q1, 2009.

Additionally, this comment from the company regarding the current positive trend of the Phase III trial, "If the current positive trend is maintained, then a large
reduction of required enrollment will suffice for formal verification of the
non-inferiority hypothesis." has me believing that the company could file for approval with the FDA by mid-to-late 2010 based on the results that they will have on hand before the completion of the trial. As always, that is purely my own speculation.

Also, thank you for posting the link to the clinical trials website - definitely worth a bookmark for any biotech investor.

As for my comments on DD and my sources for information, I touched on that subject in a post a while back, but I like your idea of having a noticeable link for small investors to post their sources for DD. If anyone wants to share some information sources, feel free to use the comments section at the bottom of that page for now.

I've gotten a few readers asking if I have taken advantage of the GNBT dip to below sixty cents, and I have. In previous posts I mentioned that sixty cents was my 'buy price' and I took advantage of Tuesday's drop and picked up a few shares at fifty five cents.

I'll probably sit back and wait a bit before I jump in any more - a further drop could be in store - but I think that between now and the end of the first quarter next year, as interim Phase III results come out (if they do), we could see a significant bump in stock price if those results are positive.

I also believe that pure speculation on the potential of Oral-Lyn or 'playing around' by the big boys can jump the stock to a dollar at any given moment, that's why I at least wanted in when the stock was trading for seventy five cents.

The big move up for GNBT, if one were to occur, will be in 2010 - in my opinion. I'm looking to form a nice base by then and that means that I'll be averaging down in the present time.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

Readers Respond: Investing in Stocks of Various Price Levels

An email from David regarding investments in stocks trading at various price levels:

As a separate, but interesting aside, I'm curious as to your record
of success with various price levels of stocks; for example, do you
find more success in the $1 to $5 range, or in the .10 to $1 range,
or in the under .01 range? Is there a difference in the percentage
of winners among your picks in these respective ranges?

VFC's Take: This was a pretty good questions so I split David's email into two different posts.

In order to properly respond, let me first clarify my position on what I consider to be a 'penny stock'. In VFC's House, a penny stock is a stock that currently trades and has historically traded for sub-$.01. However, I don't consider penny stocks to be stocks that had previously traded for respectable levels and got beaten down to about a penny as a result of bad news or a market crash (TTNP, MHAN). I know that is not the broadly recognized definition of a 'penny stock', but the term can be misleading because most of those that trade sub-penny stocks do so strictly for trading purposes. That's a different game than finding a TTNP or MHAN that trades for about two cents but is still largely a news-driven stock.

For all intents of purposes, I don't mess around with 'penny stocks,' meaning if it trades for below a penny, it's not my game.

However, I've had the most success with stocks that trade for between one and five cents, only because a small investor can load up on those stocks - if you find one with potential - and come out HUGE if the stock makes it. For instance, Celsius Holdings (CSUH) and Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP), both of which I loaded up on at sub five cents, instantly became the largest two positions in my portfolio during their respective runs earlier this year - even after I sold off some profit - but before the huge percentage gains they were far from my top holdings. Manhattan Pharmaceuticals (MHAN) and BioElectronics, while not yet posting the gains of TTNP and CSUH, still had my portfolio way in the green because - while each only posted about a six cent gain - it was still a triple in price from where I had purchased each stock.

How long is a small investor going to sit around and wait for their investment in Microsoft (MSFT) to triple, let alone post the 3000% gains of TTNP?

Don't get me wrong, you need the stable stocks in your portfolio for the long term and for the kids' education and the such, but the majority of the 'night on the town' money should go to finding stocks that have potential that are still trading under the radar. That's where, in my opinion, the biggest gains can be had and it just so happens that in my portfolio, the biggest gainers (and now some of the biggest holdings - profit taking aside) are the stocks that I had purchased for between one and five cents.

Next - and keep in mind this is strictly referring to my own portfolio - I've had pretty good success in the twenty-to-fifty cent range. I loaded up on AGEN, CVM, EPCT, etc. while the market had those stocks trading at or near twenty cents. While EPCT has not yet reached the dollar mark, the other two are more than doubles, if not triples for me this year - however, since I still like the long term prospects of both I'm 'averaging up', but by no means am I buying now at the rate I was when these stocks were twenty cent stocks.

My logic in accumulating speculative stocks is this, keep in mind this is during what I term 'accumulation phase', barring any news & even driven price moves: The higher the stock rises, the more risky the buy. The lower the stock goes, the more I'll pick up the accumulation (average down). Common sense. However, the strategy will vary after either good or bad news is released.

Another item to note is that when these low priced stocks start to pay off, it's imperative to take profits and/or start trading a few shares because just as easily as they go up, they can go back down.

I like the stable, higher-priced stocks for my IRA and kids' education funds so that I know there's money there when I need it. Whenever my 'night on the town' money pays off, I always transfer some of it into the stable stuff so I don't have everything in the gut-wrenching speculative plays. I even have a few ETFs that I invest in, but I'm not a fan of mutual funds - although one or two of my IRAs that i do not personally manage use them.

Additionally, I think that which stocks you invest in has a lot to do with how much time you have to research stocks and then keep an eye on them so you can buy and sell as need be. These low priced stocks are highly volatile and you've got to be in a position to be able to spot news releases and then to buy and sell quickly enough to make the risk and the stress of investing in those stocks worth it.

I also don't recommend these highly speculative plays for those that have weak stomachs and little tolerance for risk. You've got to have the cast-iron cajones sometimes to watch a stock drop 50% overnight and then make a rational decision as to whether it is just a better buying point or if it's bail time. For instance, I purchased my very first shares of CSUH for just over sixty cents, then a few more in the twenties and then some in the teens; however, I loaded up at below five cents because while the stock was dropping, the company continued to have the same potential that I thought it had when I bought those first shares.

I'll admit, it hurts to buy stocks as they're dropping and you've got to be very confident in your DD to do that, but if you get a good one that pays off, that one stock could instantly turn your entire portfolio into 'house money.'

A HUGE Disclaimer: You've got to be responsible for your own DD, don't invest just based on a stock tip from a friend, news source or a blog - anyone. As I've emphasized before, have an entry and an exit strategy for your stock and be happy taking profits on the way up AND be patient and remain stable if the stock drops; and never look in your portfolio and see a stock that you can't instantly identify the reason that you bought it.

Remember, the larger portion of society has been trained to believe that a fifteen percent annual gain is great; but VFC doesn't want to be old and drueling all over himself when it comes time to spend money. I say stay home a few nights out of the week, since it's play money and play time anyway, use it to find some good speculative plays with potential and pick up a few shares accordingly.

If it pays off, then take your vacations now while you can still enjoy them instead of waiting until you need Sally from the United desk to wheelchair your butt onto the tarmac in Los Cabos.

Back to the question at hand, I think that a full portfolio should have a little bit of everything, but much of what you decide to invest in has to do with your own comfort level and tolerance for risk. Maybe most importantly, you've got to identify you level of patience. While we all love quick gains, some stocks take years to pay off, and your level of patience in a particular stock should be a part of your entry/exit strategy.

This is all just my own opinion based on my own experience and strategies. Do your own DD and identify your own levels of risk and comfort before investing in any particular stock.

Readers Respond: Raser Technologies (RZ)

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



RZ: An email from David regarding Raser Technologies:

Hello, Mr. VCF (I can see from other postings that your name is Vinny
- shall we address you that way?)

You are clearly busy these days, and I wish to congratulate you on your blog (which I've started reading aside from SA) and all the good work, and esp on your sincere desire to respond to others' ideas!

I wonder if you can find the time to respond to my request for your
take on a stock which may be out of your area of expertise - Raser
Technologies (RZ). Obviously the bulk of your research goes into
biotechs, but I'm wondering if this one passes your "smell test," and
what you think about the sector as well. It fits well into the
green-tech, Obama trend but since the stock has trended down for some
time, I'm wondering if to forget about it or see its current price as
a buying opportunity? And in general what do you think about the
sector - including stocks such as US geothermal (HTM) and Nevada geothermal?

As a separate, but interesting aside, I'm curious as to your record
of success with various price levels of stocks; for example, do you
find more success in the $1 to $5 range, or in the .10 to $1 range,
or in the under .!0 range? Is there a difference in the percentage
of winners among your picks in these respective ranges?

Thanks muchly! ds



VFC's Take: Regarding Raser Technologies, it passes my 'smell test' as a long term speculative buy, however - mainly because of financing - the company has a long way to go before I'd be ready to call it a solid investment.

The alternative/green energy sector is a great one to be in right now, in my opinion, but there are quite a few companies out there that are all developing the same technology; meaning that the hard part will be finding the ones that have the best potential to succeed and then being invested in them before/if they start to make it to the big time.

Raser certainly does have a lot of potential technology wrapped up in the company, but like all other companies looking to get ahead in this sector, they don't have the financing to go-it-alone. If a big player doesn't come on board in a big way, then Raser - like others in the sector - is going to have to continue to depend on government grants to survive, or even take advantage of some of the 'stimulus' money that was to be destined to support 'green energy' initiatives.

I do like the potential of this company, if Raser can find a way to bring its technology and ideas to market on a large scale, then investors will be very satisfied over the long term, in my opinion; however, for the time being I think that financing and dilution are going to continue to be an issue.

However, it is possible that Raser can make a splash this year if its first geothermal plant (Thermo No. 1) is deemed a success. The plant, according to recent public releases, should be running at full capacity by the end of fiscal year 2009. The company has stated that revenue from electricity sold to Anaheim, California has been already coming in since the Spring, but I still think the plant - let alone the company - is a long way off from profitability, so any spike in price would be met with dilution, in my opinion.

As alwys, do your DD on this one, however, I think that the risk/reward profile is decent enough if you have a long term outlook. Government money is going to be pouring into this sector for years to come, in my opinion, so any one of these developmental energy companies that looks to have an edge could be the ones to benefit most.

Also, a buyout or licensing agreement by/with a larger power/energy supplier is also a possibility, in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.

Briefs: EPCT, NRIFF, CVM

EPCT: Shares of Epicept Corp traded relatively flat during early trading on Monday after a press release issued by the company during the morning hours highlighted the "pharmacoeconomic benefits" of Ceplene in a 'cost to savings' anlysis conducted by Applied Healthcare Resource Management Inc.

The report measured the costs and potential savings (in terms of British pounds) of the British Ministry of Health if Ceplene were to be offered to patients of Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) in first remission in the United Kingdom.

Naturally, the cost analysis proved that the use of Ceplene in the UK, because the drug would reduce the amount of AML relapses in patients, was favorable to the Ministry's budget and was "well within the established per-patient reimbursement threshold for a new drug," according to statements contained within the press release.

This news is 'good enough' for Epicept, but I think that the only news that investors of EPCT are looking for is news of a long-anticipated partnership for Ceplene in Europe; anything else is pretty insignificant right now without Ceplene being on the market.

Myriad Pharmaceuticals is due to release an update on an Azixa Phase II trial in November, so I consider positive news regarding Azixa as offering the best chance for a short term price spike in EPCT. A couple of years ago the stock jumped to over four dollars on positive Azixa news, although that was before the latest rounds of dilution. If the Azixa update is positive and the price spikes as a result, I will most likely sell into that spike as I am growing impatient while sitting around waiting for a Ceplene partnership.

The fact that a year has gone by with no news of a partnership has me believing that the Epicept management team will not be able to get the job done. I'm holding for now, but I'll probably sell into any Azixa spike and try to get back in later after the company undoubtedly takes advantage of the price spike with additional dilution.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long EPCT.



NRIFF.pk: Shares of Nuvo research have recovered nicely to above the thirty cent level after a morning drop quickly plunged the stock to nineteen cents. The company issued an official response to Monday's trading at the request of the Canadian regulatory agencies declaring that they've got nothing new to report, but the drop sure got the attention of a whole lot of investors; some of whom were terrified at the quick and very significant percentage drop while others jumped at the chance to gobble up some cheap shares in anticipation of November's FDA decision on Pennsaid, Nuvo's lead drug that has been partnered with Covidien for US distribution.

Any insight into the morning drop is purely based on speculation, but it's not so uncommon to see such a precipitous drop in the share price of a biotech stock these days - especially not when big news is pending. Some speculation would say that bad news leaked and some big players bailed quick while others would speculate that the big boys were just playing their games and dropped the price of the stock in order for them to get in cheap themselves.

It's any one's guess, at this point, although one thing is for sure: a whole lot of stop-loss orders got taken out this morning and there's a whole lot of unhappy investors out there who lost their shares via stop-loss and then watched the price quickly rebound to thirty cents. It's for reasons like this one that I am not a big fan of stop loss orders.

If you've got a stop loss in and bad news hits sending the stock price in free-fall mode, then most likely - because your stop loss will become a market order - the price that you'll get for your stop loss is going to be well below the price that you wanted. If that's your intention - to get rid of a dropping stock - then a stop loss order is the way to go, but it leaves you vulnerable to the 'big boy' games that get played, when the MMs go looking to take out stop losses - many times before a big run.

Of note, both DNDN and AGEN had significant dips before embarking on huge percentage runs shortly thereafter.

The reason for Monday's early NRIFF drop may never be known to the likes of you and me, but the fact that the stock recovered to over thirty cents has me pretty confident that nothing has changed, nothing has been leaked and we're still on track for an early November decision. Of course, that's just my own opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long NRIFF.



CVM: In news released by Cel Sci Corp on Monday morning, it was announced that the company has raised over "$10 million over the past 60 days through the exercise of warrants by investors to purchase the Company's common stock," according to statements contained within the PR.

Additionally, the PR stated that Cel Sci has now raised about $30 million over the past two months and the money will be used to fund the pending Multikine Phase III trial and also to "accelerate the development of its LEAPS compound for the treatment of H1N1 hospitalized patient."

It looks like the pieces are falling into place for Cel Sci, and I contend that the fourth quarter should be an exciting one for the Cel Sci story.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Celsius (CSUH) Appears in ShopRite

Shares of Celsius Holdings (CSUH.ob) remained trading for under fifty cents after the company released two pieces of news last week; one being another distribution agreement in the Northeast - an area in which the product is quickly becoming cemented.

According to a press release issued last Thursday, two flavors of Celsius (Sparkling Orange and Green Tea/Raspberry Acai) will hit the shelves of over 200 ShopRite locations throughout six Northeastern states during the month of October.

An additional note in the release stated that the new distribution will be supported by radio and print ads in the market, although the advertising comes as no surprise to investors who are well aware that a nationwide media push has been in full effect for over a month now.

I expect additional distribution to be announced during the fourth quarter of this year, leading into the first quarter of next year, based on comments made by Celsius CEO Steve Haley during an Investment Nation interview a few weeks ago. As distribution increases, the stock price continues to trade above its current earnings rate, but at some point the potential future earnings and growth of the company could spark another run in the stock price.

The ShopeRite distribution is nice, but previous statements by the company have me believing that something bigger is in the works.

Also of note last week, it was announced that the Celsius Green Tea/Raspberry Acai flavor was awarded the CSP Retailer Choice for the Best New Product of 2009.

As the worlds' first calorie burning beverage, Celsius is making a strong push to remain the recognized leader of the functional beverage category, and the recent advertising blitz combined with the distribution growth should only have a positive effect on the bottom line.

Quarter Three results are due out soon and while I do not predict breath-taking growth, I do predict very, very solid growth.

Unless CSUH dips to the mid-thirties again I'm set in my position of the stock, but I still think we're at a good 'accumulate the dips' level, based on the future growth potential of the company.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Monday's Briefs: CVM, AGEN, KERX

CVM: Last week I had the opportunity to visit Cel Sci's new, state of the art Multikine production facility near Baltimore, MD. During the visit, I was given a tour of the interior by Dr. Eyal Talor and Mr. W. Brooke Jones of Cel Sci Corp. Upon the completion of my visit, I came to the conclusion that the company's previously announced time frame for validation of the facility (of fourth quarter, 2009) was on target.

The tour was arranged on the efforts of BioMedReports and Cel Sci and a complete report from my tour inside the facility can be read on the BioMedReports web site.

During the tour I saw nothing that would incline me to alter my stance of playing CVM as a 'buy the dips' stock; and I continue to have confidence in the fact that news regarding the commencement of the long-awaiting Multikine Phase III trial is not too far away.

Aside from the pending Multikine trial, any news regarding the L.E.A.P.S. swine flu treatment could also serve as a price mover for CVM.

I'll continue to accumulate CVM for the long term.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



AGEN: After last week's forty percent drop in price, Antigenics issued an early morning press release on Monday announcing promising results for the company's Phase II trial that will measure the effectiveness of Oncophage in treating patients with recurrent high grade glioma (brain cancer).

Data from the first twenty patients treated with Oncophage demonstrated a median survival of 10.1 months, well above the historic average of 6.5 months, and slightly better than Avastin's 9.2 months. However, Oncophage gets a leg up in terms of 'quality of life' (side effects), according to the press release - an important issue for patients, as we learned from the powerful patient lobby that came to the forefront during the Provenge trials.

I'll continue adding shares of AGEN with a long term outlook, although I'll get more excited about the glioma trials as the Phase II draws to an end and the outlook moves to a Phase III success.

As for the status of Oncophage in Europe - I'm not certain that we're at the end of that road. Let's see what the EMEA has to say in November and then look at the chances of Antigenics being able to provide a valid argument for appeal. Last weeks verbal negative opinion definitely puts the time frame for a possible return in stock price off by a little while, but it doesn't kill the long term potential of the stock by any means.

Dendreon and the Provenge story showed us that cancer immunotherapy treatments are just as much a political issue as a medical one, especially when it's the small biotech companies developing products that can tear into the profits of big pharma; and had it not been for the patient lobby behind Provenge and the conflicts of interest that arose with two Doctors on the FDA's Advisory Committee, I'm not so sure that Dendreon would be primed for the success that it looks like that company will realize with a Provenge approval next year.

However, I still believe that cancer immunotherapy treatments are the next big thing for cancer treatment, although I also don't believe that the full potential of the vaccines will be realized until they can be tested in patients who still have an immune system that is not already torn apart, beat down and weakened by late stages of cancer and chemotherapy treatments. Just my opinion, of course.

I'm adding AGEN on the dips; however, I'll somewhat temper my accumulation for the time being until I see if the stock drops to sub-$1, a possibility, in my opinion, if additional promising news is not released this week leading into the earnings report.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.



KERX: As shares of KERX dip down towards the $2 mark, it may be a good time to accumulate for the long term; especially if the price of the stock were to dip below the $2 mark.

In the meantime, the company announced on Monday that abstract data from the recently-concluded Phase 2 trial of Zerenex will be presented on October 29th at the American Society of Nephrology (ASN) Renal Week Meeting in San Diego.

The meeting will most likely not impact the KERX share price at all since the data has already been released by the company. The next price movers for KERX, in my opinion, will be news regarding or a start date for the pending Phase III trials.

I'm still accumulating KERX, but I'll pick up the accumulation if we see a price below $2 again during the 'down time'.

Disclosure: VFC is long KERX.

Stock Watch: MSBT, SPNG, BDSI

MSBT.ob: Shares of MedaSorb continued to run on Wednesday, closing at forty three cents, another thirty four percent to the upside. Wednesday's close makes the stock a near triple over the past five trading days and a seven-bagger over the past few months.

It's hard not to imagine a pullback after a run like that, but with a market cap of still under twenty million, I think that there is still more room for an additional speculative move to the upside based on the potential of the company's treatment for sever sepsis, Cytosorb, which is nearing the conclusion of a European trial.

A run to a dollar is plausible, in my opinion, as it gets closer to trial-results time, but I also suggest that investors who are holding from under ten take a little bit of profit on the way up; as AGEN re-iterated on Wednesday, nothing is a sure thing in the stock market.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.



SPNG: Shares of SpongeTech doubled on Wednesday after the company released news that it has partnered with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

On the surface, news of the sponsorship deal could be looked at as just another sports deal for a company on the brink, but more significant to me is that this announcement may indicate that SpongeTech is alive and kicking and not destined for disaster as many are predicting these days.

Just my speculation, but regardless of whether the deal was set to be announced already or not, I don't think that the Cavs - let alone the SEC - would have let this release go out unless SpongeTech provided some evidence that they are not the sham that so many are now saying they are. That's just my opinion.

Although tempted, i did not sell any of the shares that I purchased on the cheap during Tuesday's trading; I'm giving this one a chance until we hear something regarding the re-audited financials.

That being said, if the stock approaches ten cents again, I'll be taking some profit off the table.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNG.



BDSI: Shares of BioDelivery traded down by nearly seven percent on Wednesday to close the day at $4.53 - a price that I still consider a good one to buy for those with a long term outlook.

The recently approved Onsolis is either about to launch, or already has launched - according to recent press releases - and as sales royalties start to roll in, BDSI should start trading to the upside.

I like BDSI as a long term growth pick, now that the company has an approved drug on the market, but I also see some short to mid term benefits based on the potential of Meda to register some immediate sales numbers.

I say 'buy the dips' with this one.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

Antigenics (AGEN): VFC's Take on The AGEN Aftermath and Readers Respond

AGEN: After taking a 40% hair cut on Wednesday after Antigenics received a verbal indication that Oncophage was going to be denied marketing by European regulators, AGEN will be a stock worth watching for at least the rest of the week.

It's my opinion that if good news on the Russian front does not materialize soon - or any other positive developments for that matter - then AGEN could slip back to the sub $1 territory, for the short term.

If that is the case, I'll continue to add shares. I've made no secret of the fact that I like the long term prospects of cancer immunotherapy treatments, and Oncophage is one that is proving to work; I'll accumulate accordingly.

Oncophage is being investigated in the treatment for multiple cancer indications and is currently approved for marketing in Russia. While investors have heard no news from the company regarding the commercial launch in that country, news is due in quarter four of 2009.

QS-21, the company's vaccine adjuvant, is being utilized in 20 vaccines - all in various stages of clinical trials - according to the Antigenics website.

My take on maintaining a long position in the stock takes nothing away from the fact that there's a whole lot of small investors out there that are having trouble getting to sleep at night after the forty percent haircut. I know what it's like to be just starting out and only having enough cash to risk and investment in a few stocks, and then to watch one of those few take a dive. It sucks - no doubt about it.

But Wednesday's over. Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and move forward; BUY, SELL or HOLD based on your DD, not on emotions. It's the ones that quit the game that lose the most. It was tempting for me to give the game up when my portfolio was sitting at over a 50% loss during the depths of the recession in March, but I took a few Rolaids and bought the heck out of the stocks that everyone was selling and it's turned out to be one heck of a year.

The lesson there is that you get your ups and downs, but don't change your overall strategy that's worked for you before; aside from taking into account a few lessons learned.

As for my take on AGEN moving forward, I'll now conisder the stock a mid to long term speculative play instead of a short to mid term play. Wednesday was one chapter in a long story. Let the peanut gallery jump up and down for a day and enjoy watching a few small investors lose money, but rest assured: Antigenics is not shutting off the lights and closing the doors, there's still potential in the company, its products and the stock - in my opinion.

As always, do your own DD and judge for yourself whether the risk is worth the reward and invest accordingly.

I will say this, however, if you're new to the biotech game and Wednesday's dip has you losing sleep, kicking the dog or shouting at wifey, then I suggest investing in a more stable sector or in already-established stocks. It's important to balance dabbling in speculative investments with your own well-being. You don't want it to consume you. If it has, take some time off and come back refreshed and with a clear mind.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.



With all the attention that AGEN received today, I'll hit a few comments and/or emails before calling it a night.

The following comment is from Fer, referencing a couple of articles written by Feuerstein over at TheStreet.com:

Hi VFC,
I would like to know your opinion on Feuerstein today's article on AGEN at The Street. Please note I'm not his admirer but I believe he has a point.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10614603/1/europe-rejects-antigenics-cancer-vaccine.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10596882/1/antigenics-vaccine-booster-baked-into-valuation-biobuzz.html

I'm mainly concern on his following statements:

1. Oncophage failed a pivotal phase III study in kidney cancer and a pivotal in skin cancer.

("Antigenics has previously stated that it cannot seek Oncophage's approval in the U.S. because of the failure of the drug's phase III study.")

2. "The timeline is uncertain at this point," said Sharp, when asked about reimbursement negotiations between Antigenics and the Russian government.

3. "Antigenics will only earn a small royalty on sales of vaccines that include QS21 and this expected revenue doesn't even support the company's current valuation."

"The company's royalty rate for its experimental vaccine adjuvant QS21 ranges from 1.5% to 6% depending on the vaccine, but is generally in the low single digits, said CFO Shalini Sharp in a response to my question after her presentation."

4. "... less than 24 hours after announcing the Russian approval of Oncophage, the company went out and raised $21 million through a PIPE, or private placement sale, through Rodman & Renshaw..."

I'm wondering why do you think Oncophage would be approved in Europe after failing a Phase III study in USA.

How come USFDA and Russia views are so different?

What do you think about Feuerstein's valuation of the company?
If I'm not wrong well below $2 a share taking into account QS21 approval and marketing.

I want to add that I'm heavily invested in AGEN.

Thanks a lot.
Fer

VFC's Take: I'll admit that I haven't read Feuerstein's blogs recently, I only glance at the headlines as they pop up on Yahoo Finance.

I'll address your questions and offer my take:

Q:I'm wondering why do you think Oncophage would be approved in Europe after failing a Phase III study in USA.

VFC: The subset of patients who were shown to benefit from Oncophage were those patients who had earlier stages of cancer. It's long been my opinion that cancer immunotherapy treatments - since they utlize a patient's own immune system - would be more effective if a patient still had an effective immune system which the treatment could utilize to fight the cancer. Once the cancer and chemo treatments have ravaged a patient's immune system, common sense says that a treatment that would utilize that immune system would be less effective. I think that Oncophage is providing evidence to that theory and over the long term I believe that cancer immunotherapy treatments will be tested in patients that have earlier stages of cancer.

I've always stressed here that the regulatory agencies are a fickle bunch, but eventually I think that approvals will catch up the 'earlier stage of progression' data - if that trend continues.

Keep in mind, I don't work in the medical profession, so I'm using discussion with some people in the cancer field and my own common sense to base my judgements.

Q: How come USFDA and Russia views are so different?

VFC: This is Geo-Political question that has to do more with culture than anything else, but as far as Oncophage is concerned, many of the subset of patients that benefited from the treatment were in fact Russian - according to previously released reports.

I also believe that Russia had a bit of that 'medical tourism' that I discussed on Wednesday in mind. Emigration is a huge problem in that country right now and giving the wealthy access to a treatment that they cannot get anywhere else is a way to draw in additional 'tourists'.

However, I get the feeling that the Russian government balked at re-imbursing costs of the treatment for anyone - even their own citizens. The economy has taken a slide in a drastic way in Russia and I'm not certain that they are willing to find the extra money to pay for re-imbursement - especially to a foreign company. that is what I believe is the hold up regarding the Russian launch.

Q: What do you think about Feuerstein's valuation of the company?
If I'm not wrong well below $2 a share taking into account QS21 approval and marketing.

VFC: I'm not sure where he values Antigenics, I haven't read his blog posts, but I will say that he has a habit of picking stocks that have posted huge runs and then say that they're overvalued. That's easy. Let's see him start picking some 'diamonds in the rough' that are undervalued, based on potential. Granted, he does that once in a while, but I think he'd rather find a stock that just gained 1000% and go out on a limb to say that he thinks it will drop.

Thanks for the comment!



From Ian:

HI VFC,

I would also like to hear your answer to Fer's question above. Why do you think that Oncophage is still feasible when the USFDA disapprove it?

Thanks
Ian

VFC's Take: Thanks for the comment. The USFDA never disapproved Oncophage. Oncophage did not meet the endpoint of a Phase III trial so the treatment never made it to the FDA for review.



From Srini:

Thanks VFC,

I been following you for the past 2 months. After DD, I am one of the investors who pulled the plug in AGEN at $2 level. It came as a shock to me this morning to watch my portfolio. I logged back into my account if there is a mistake with the price. After checking the news about AGEN the first think I did is to check you blog. Believe me your post made me feel very comfortable. I am going long on AGEN with their potential. I am a small invester and I would like to average down. Do you think AGEN will hit sub dollar?
Like Rocky "Yo VFC (Adrian)"Thanks and keep up the good work...

-Srini

VFC's Take: I do think that AGEN will hit sub $1, unless good news is released in the short term that would add potential value to the company and the stock. In fact, I would have thought that AGEN would have hit below the dollar mark on Wednesday. It's my opinion that either the big boys are playing their games and taking a breather before dropping it again or there may be other news pending that is propping the stock up for the time being.

If you're already in, my opinion is that it is worth waiting to see how low she drops before adding. That's just my opinion, invest according to your own DD.



From Alejandro:

Hi VFC
Two Lessons learned!!!
Take profit at any spike!!! and only the money in your pocket is real.
I didn´t do that with AGEN when I had the chance because I thought that being aproved in Rusia it had real good chances to be aproved for EU, but apparently I was wrong...
Today I lost the same money I had earned with cvm some weeks ago, that means I have to start again.
Impatience about your thoughts on AGEN (as many others here)

VFC's Take: Two very, very important lessons for everyone, take some profit and a gain is only a paper gain until realized. These lessons are especially important for those investors that have not yet built a cash reserve to have in store in the sidelines.

I will say, however, that don't be discouraged from doing DD and sticking to your basic trading strategies. One good hit on a speculative, low-priced stock (MSBT, TTNP, CSUH) can set up that cash reserve for a long time; althoguh it takes a lot of patience, time and determination to find a gem like that. Just my opinion.



VFC,

I'm sure you are being innundated with questions about CHMP's negative decision on AGEN and the subsequent drop. Nevertheless I am curious what is your take on the company moving forward? The FDA is even tougher so it may be time to jump on AGEN.

Thanks!

VFC's Take: I wouldn't blame anyone for jumping ship after Wednesday's news, it's definitely a setback. Those sticking around will need a bit of a longer term outlook. I'm one that is sticking around for the long term.

Thanks for reading, and Wednesday was a tough day - I'm right there with ya - hopefully everyone had another stock or two that went up to offset the AGEN dip.

Anitgenics (AGEN) to Anticipate a Negative Opinion Regarding Oncophage, According to European Regulators - VFC's Take

In an early Wednesday press release, Antigenics (AGEN) announced that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) has verbally notified the company that a negative vote should be anticipated in November, when the European regulators will meet to officially cast their votes.

As a result of that press release, the AGEN stock tumbled by over 40% before settling in at just above $1.20 during mid-day trading.

While many investors who were anticipating a positive review probably jumped ship after the news was released, I took the opportunity to add to my position and I'll explain why.

First, it's long been my opinion that cancer immunotherapy treatments are the next breakthrough in cancer treatment, and I believe that the good ones (the ones that are proving to be extending the lives of patients) will eventually be approved world wide. On that note, I've liked what I've seen from Antigenics regarding the long-term survivability of the patients who have received the treatment when compared to those who have not, according to published reports.

It is also worth noting that it has only been recently that the endpoints of the cancer vaccine trials shifted to survivability from other endpoints, such as tumor progression. Dendreon was able to do that with Provenge mid-trial and therefor they will have met their endpoint when Provenge goes before the FDA next year.

As for Oncophage, we'll have to wait and see the exact reasons for denial and see what the company's course of action will be, if in fact they are denied European approval in November.

As a brief side note, there are headlines out there that are claiming that Oncophage has been denied approval by European regulators, which is false and misleading. After a negative CHMP opinion, it is highly likely that Oncophage will be denied, but if journalism means reporting the facts, then the facts are that nothing has been denied - yet.

Back to the subject at hand, Oncophage, and why I added to my AGEN position on the dip:

In addition to my positive outlook for the long term prospects of Oncophage and cancer immunotherapy as a whole, I would have thought that AGEN would dip to the sub one dollar level on negative news from Europe. It's possible that the stock could continue its slide to lower levels in the coming days, but there is also the possibility that the company will announce good news on the Russia front after the bad news from Europe has settled. Investors may not be completely jumping ship in anticipation of the Russia news.

A commercial launch of Oncophage in Russia, in conjuction with news that the Russian government will assist patients in re-imbursing the costs of the treatments, could push the stock back towards the $2 level, in my opinion.

On that note, I wrote an article months ago where I discussed the prospects of Russia becoming a new destination for 'medical tourism'. Moscow is looking for ways to attract tourism of any kind and there is a growing lobby of medical professionals and patients around the world that support cancer immunotherapy treatments that may be willing to travel to Russia to receive treatments that they cannot receive elsewhere.

'Medical tourism' is a growing sub-culture (although only the financially well-off can afford it) and I believe that Oncophage in Russia has a chance of benefiting from that type of 'tourism', judging by the growing lobby to approve cancer immunotherapies.

It's also possible that the EMEA could change course on an appeal. Most recently (in terms of what I've got in my portfolio) the regulatory agency did just that with Epicept's Ceplene. After an original negative opinion, additional data was provided by Epicept that convinced the EMEA to approve the drug for commercial use in Europe.

The longer patients that have received Oncophage live, the better chances of a future approval, in my opinion, and the most recents results are showing that those patients are living longer - according to the PR trail from the company.

Next, there's QS-21. While Oncophage will be the real money maker for the company long term, in my opinion, the prospects of QS-21 are promising for the short term.

If you invested in AGEN on the prospects of a European approval in 2009, then I fully support a 'ship jump' in order to move on to something else.

Remember, do your own DD and invest according to your own research AND comfort level. Some investors won't sleep for a week after watching the drop today; if that's your comfort level, then I wouldn't dabble in too many biotech stocks in the future.

I'm in this one for the long term and while I did not particularly enjoy Wednesday's news, I did enjoy adding shares for a price that I think will end up being a bargain for the long run. If we do hit the sub $1 level on no additional bad news, then I'll also add at that point.

Like Rocky Balboa said in Rocky 6, "Life ain't all sunshine and rainbows." Today wasn't a happy one for investors of AGEN, but it's also not the end of the story.
If we do see bad news on either of those fronts, then things could get pretty ugly for a while. The next news to anticipate is an update on the Russia front and anything regarding QS-21. DNDN played sea-saw between $3 and $26 dollars for years before settling where it is today.

If your DD supports an 'add on the dip' or a 'hold', then invest accordingly. If it supports a 'sell', then sell; but whatever decision you make, base it on DD and research, not out of fear and other emotional based responses.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

Readers Respond: MHTX, SPNG, NRIFF, PWRM

MHTX: A comment from Citizen Chin regarding Manhattan Scientific's license with the Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS):

Vinny,

MHTX has taken their nano metal process to market. Last month they announced a licensing deal with Carpenter Technologies (CRS), a Fortune 500 specialty metals manufacturer. MHTX will receive annual license fees (for four years) plus royalties.

Details here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Manhattan-Scientifics-Inc-bw-3425818176.html?x=0&.v=1

VFC's Take: It is true, the licensing deal with Carpenter is huge, although Carpenter has not brought the product to market just yet. The key phrases - in my opinion - from the Carpenter PR are:

"...Carpenter will fully develop, manufacture and market a new class of high strength metals..."

"Carpenter is studying and considering other applications, including the transportation industry, where stronger, lighter metals may impact fuel economy."

While there's little doubt that Carpenter has the ability to bring the technology to market, they're not there yet. When the technology does become a part of something big, I expect that the payments and royalties discussed in the PR will be significant. However, considering the fact that the licensing deal is for four years, Carpenter must be pretty close to market with the technology.

On the finance front, this quote is paramount for current shareholders:

“The contract will provide quick and sustained revenue to Manhattan Scientifics. Moreover, we anticipate positive cash flow, reliable revenue and profitability during the next 12 months. This is a major breakthrough for our 8,600 shareholders.”

That statement is huge.

The money coming in from the Carpenter licensing agreement will provide the capital to advance the company's additional pipeline of technology, in my opinion.

Thanks for the comment, Citizen Chin.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHTX.



SPNG.ob: A comment from Scott regarding SpongeTech:

The backlash has begun on SPNG. ESPN is printing negative (and flat out incorrect) stories on SPNG, and this is the kind of press that could hamper future advertising efforts in the sports arena space. See the bottom of the Debunking the Church Jeter article on page 2. This space does not allow me to post the link.

This reporting is irresponsible as well as incorrect. Yet, the public doesn't care, and is too lazy to look into anything. (See Fox News Channel for evidence)

A PR from the company would be nice, am I asking too much? They must have a vague idea when the financials are going to be finished, they have had ample time to get this done in my opinion.

Scott

VFC's Take: It is true, SPNG is a highly risky and highly speculative play right now and not worth much more than 'night on the town' money. However, I purchased a few cheap shares yesterday to take my average down to five cents because I'm not fully convinced that we've heard the last from the SpongeTech stock. Let's see how the SEC investigation and the re-audited financials play out.

Regarding the ESPN article, I couldn't help but get the feeling that I was reading an Adam Feuerstein article (I actually used to read his stuff, now I just glance at the headlines) and it is highly suspicious to me that the author would write up a story on a stock on the pages of ESPN.com. Something's not right about that.

Meanwhile, the products are still selling, it's just yet to be seen how well.

I'm holding through the storm - let's see what happens. If the stock never hits five cents again, then I'm out a few martinis. If SpongeTech turns out to be a fraud, then there'll likely be some jail time for a few individuals.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNG.



NRIFF: A comment regarding Nuvo Research:

Hi VFC,

I like reading your comments and it helps me a lot while investing in to stocks. What are your thoughts on Nuvo Research Inc.(TSE:NRI, PINK:NRIFF), I believe FDA news for NRI is on November 4.

Also if you can shine some lights on Power3 Medical Products, Inc. (PWRM).

Your help will be really appreciated,

Thanks,

VFC's Take:

Previous posts regarding NRIFF:

FDA Play For the Week
NUVO Decisions Extended by FDA
VFC's Take on the NRIFF Post-Approval Price Targets

Please read the above write-ups on NRIFF, as my opinion has not changed. I believe it is a good 'FDA Play' as we lead into the November approval timeframe, but the higher the price goes the less money I'd feel comfortable investing in it - as with any FDA play.

I think the chances of a Pennsaid approval are pretty solid, especially with partner Covidien in the corner, but the FDA is a fickle and unpredictable bunch.

November 4th is the expected decision day for Pennsaid and the stock could trickle up leading into that date.

Disclosure: VFC is long NRIFF.



PWRM: Power3 Medical Products does pass my 'smell test' as a good, speculative, night-on-the town stock with potential.

In short, this company is developing diagnostic tests that use protein biomarkers to detect the early stages of various neurodegenerative diseases, such as Parkinsons and Alzheimer's in addition to a test that detects the early stages of breast cancer.

NuroPro tests for the neurodegenerative diseases and SeraPro tests for the early stages of breast cancer.

Clinical evaluations of the products are ongoing and by the second half of 2010 the company could file for FDA clearance for one or both of its products.

I like the risk/reward of PWRM based on the current price and the potential of the products and while financing is an issue, the stock could rise as the clinical evaluations come to a close and the company then files with the FDA - assuming positive evaluations, of course.

A decent enough 'night on the town' pick, in my opinion, but all should do their own DD.

Disclosure: No position.

Briefs: MSBT, MHTX

MSBT.ob: Investors of MedaSorb Technologies Corp enjoyed a price spike of over 40% during early trading on Tuesday, with volume hitting four times the daily average by noon.

Medasorb is due to release results within the next few months from a European study that measures the effectiveness of Cytosorb, the company's treatment for severe sepsis.

For months the stock was trading between six and ten cents - a ripe time for investors to accumulate - and it looks like the stock is ready to move as speculators take a position in anticipation of the results.

With a market cap of under thirteen millions - still - I expect to see the stock approach the one dollar level before the release of results, as I've indicated before. If positive, MSBT could move significantly higher seeing as there is currently no effective treatment for severe sepsis.

For those that may have missed the boat below ten cents and also missed the most recent pullback to fourteen cents, buy the dips if you're ready to speculate on the outcome of Cytosorb.

MSBT has retreated somewhat after each significant run during the recent run up, but because of the small market cap, it's tough to predict exactly where the stock will level off before pulling back again. Volume is up and the price is up, so I'd suggest that a new investor buying in pick up a few shares now in case the run continues, but leave some money on the sidelines to average down on any dips.

For those in since below ten cents, congrats and it's now time to watch the news wires; either speculators are starting to run rampant with MSBT or the word about Cytosorb is starting to get out.

If, in fact, Cytosorb is effective in treating severe sepsis, then MedaSorb (and its stock) is going to turn into one heck of a success story.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.



MHTX.ob: Another stock that has spiked nicely from the five cent level of late is MHTX, the symbol for Manhattan Scientifics. I've discussed this company here before, (on a tip from Citizen Chin) mostly because of the potential of the nanotechnology that the company has acquired that can condense the matter of metals; which, in turn, reduces the weight of the metal by 25% but doubles it's strength. The sky is the limit if the company takes that technology to market.

In addition to some portable fuel cell and 3-D technology (that would add a whole new level to the on-line version of the 'Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue'), the company also announced on Tuesday that it is moving to acquire the rights to Rights to an Early Cancer Detection system developed by Dr. Edward R. Flynn. Dr. Flynn's technology, according to the press release, used nanomedicine and biomagnetics to detect cancer early.

The latest addition to the Manhattan Scientifics pool of licenses offers the company another potential blockbuster and if even one of them were to make it to market, then I think that the stock of this company could pay off huge.

If you're not in MHTX yet but are looking to get in, add it to the watch list and try to buy any dips.

As always, however, do your own DD first - don't just take mine or anyone else's word for it. Your money deserves your own research.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHTX.

Briefs: SPNGE, PPHM

SPNGE.ob: Shares of SpongeTech traded down on Monday after trading resumed without the filing of new financial reports. It's been my opinion that even while the stock is not trading, sales are still ongoing and chances are that the stock could recover if sales were continuing at or near the same pace as they were before the recent turmoil. My opinion also comes with the assumption that the re-stated financial reports are not too far off from where they were previously.

The SpongeTech stock is very risky and more speculative than ever before right now, but I felt that the potential for a reversal was good enough to average my position down to the five cent level - after some Monday buys.

Investors should keep an eye out for the re-stated financials and possible PR updates concerning ongoing sales and operations.

The lawsuits are a non-issue, in my opinion, because I don't think that the company was intentionally trying to mislead investors. To the contrary, it looks to me as if SpongeTech was attempting to become more legit by conducting a reverse split and looking to chase the day traders and speculators out of the stock.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNGE.



PPHM: Shares of Peregrine traded with some strength on Monday after the company opened trading after having have conducted a 1:5 reverse split.
The company also took the opportunity on Monday morning to announce that former Genentech Senior Executive Dr. Robert Garnick has joined Peregrine as the Head of Regulatory Affairs.

I maintain that PPHM is full of future potential based on the bavituximab and Cotara pipeline, although those products have yet to hit Phase III.

I'll continue to accumulate on any dips.

Of note, the stock will continue trading as PPHMD until the end of the month.

Disclosure: VFC is long PPHM.

VFC's Cel Sci (CVM) Update for Monday

CVM: Shares of Cel Sci traded with continued volatility on Monday, after the company announced positive results for CEL-2000 (based on the company's LEAPS technology) in the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis at the American College of Rheumatology Conference in Philadelphia on Sunday. It was also noted at the conference by Cel-Sci that the potential treatment indications for LEAPS are plentiful, in addition to the company's current investigative treatment for the swine flu.

Another negative (and expected) article by TheStreet.com on Monday morning may have contributed to some mid-day selling, but I believe that many investors were expecting bigger news to hit the wires and bailed when that news did not materialize, then looked for a chance to get back in for a lower price later in the day.

That being said, it's worth picking up a few shares on any dips into the $1.30s, in my opinion, because of the short to mid term potential for significant news to be released; including an update on the FDA validation of the Baltimore manufacturing facility, which would (I assume) be followed by a potential commencement of the much-anticipated Multikine Phase III trial.

Any indication from either the FDA or Cel Sci that LEAPS for the treatment of the swine flu is a 'go' would significantly pushe the stock to higher levels, in my opinion.

It's also become painfully apparent (and boring) that Adam Feuerstein, TheStreet.com's biotech blogger, has a personal vendetta or hidden agenda against Cel-Sci. Feuerstein's blog posts continue to report on anything but valid developments regarding the Cel-Sci pipeline and the small investor would be better off looking to another source for a place to begin the DD, rather than reading OP-ED pieces that misrepresent or ignore the facts.

The bottom line is this, Feuerstein is looking for 'clicks' to his articles, just like any other blogger, and if he's got to incite negativity from his readers to get paid - or support another agenda - then there's nothing we can do about that except ignore it.

I, personally, find it morally reprehensible to go to the extremes that Adam does in an attempt to discredit a company that is working on a breakthrough treatment for a big killer like head and neck cancer, but that's just me. Time will tell whether or not the small investor did the right thing by investing in Cel Sci, and time will tell if Multikine is the life saver that, thus far it's proven to be. But in the meantime, the developments of the company look good and there's plenty of resources out there for the small investor to gather the real and unabated facts.

I'm also inclined to believe that if Feuerstein spent more time researching stocks than he does trying to bring a beef with Garza at BioMedReports, he might find good stocks like CVM while they're trading for twenty cents and tip his readers off to them rather than wait until a stock has a huge run and then find a reason to bash it.

As for CVM, it's already a huge percentage winner this year, and I continue to believe that things are just getting started for Cel Sci. I'll continue to add on the dips.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

BIEL: Interim Results Are In, ActiPatch vs Extra Stregnth Tylenol

BIEL.pk: BioElectronics Corp. issued a press release on Monday announcing that the preliminary results are in for an ongoing comparison study measuring the effectiveness between ActiPatch and Extra Strength Tylenol in treating exercise-induced muscle pain.

The early results, according to the press release, showed that ActiPatch had "superior efficacy" to Extra Strength Tylenol. The full results should be released in November.

The BIEL stock price remained relatively unchanged with the announcement, but the data gives investors a good indication that ActiPatch may receive favorable review from the US FDA if the end-of-study results are as convincing as the preliminary results.

As the general public, along with regulatory agencies, begin to look for alternatives in the market to Acetaminophen and Ibuprofen due to health concerns, BioElectronics is in a prime position to take advantage of the shift in market (and medical) trend.

With BIEL trading in the somewhat stable seven to eight cents range as investors await the pending FDA decisions, I like the buying opportunity that presents itself on the dips and I think that in the mid to long term, a buy for under ten cents is going to end up looking like a steal.

I've made no secret of the fact that I think that BioDelivery's products to treat various indications of pain and swelling has the potential to become a world-wide alternative to Tylenol and Ibuprofen and I am investing accordingly.

Aside from the upcoming FDA decisions, investors should gain a little bit more confidence in the business side of things since the company's stock symbol is now listed on the pink sheets without the dreaded 'Caveat Emptor' rating.

The interim news on the comparison study is encouraging and investors in the company will be anxiously awaiting the full results come November.

For now, it's a waiting game for the pending FDA decisions.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Readers Respond: RAD, SOMX

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



RAD: An email from Citizen Chin regarding Rite Aid:

Earlier this year, I managed to trade Rite-Aid from .33 cents up to around $1.20 or so. For the past month or two, it's been hovering around the $1.50 mark. I'm thinking this could be a great play on any future economic recovery, coupled with the fact that we have an aging population in the baby boomers who are going to probably be the most heavily medicated silver generation the world has ever known.

CVS and Walgreens are stronger competitors. But the way I see it, is that Rite-Aid has been working diligently over the past two years to sloguh off their debt as well as their redundant and under performing stores and distribution centers. The price as it is now is being held down until investors are convinced that RAD can move forward as a true competitor to WAG and CVS. For this reason, couple with what I outlined above, I believe that RAD is like a spring that's been compressed, just waiting to spring back open. What are your thoughts on Rite-Aid as long term (as in 2+ years) pick?

Thanks,
Citizen Chin

VFC's Take: First of all, hailing from the NorthEast myself, I checked out Citizen Chin's blog from the link that he attaches to the bottom of his email signature. If you know Jersey at all, or call it home, I think you'll find the good Citizen's blog, Escape From Jersey, pretty entertaining.

As for Rite Aid, I can definitely see the argument outlined by Citizen Chin, but I am hard pressed to call the stock a good long term investment. I'd rather call it a short-to-mid term speculative play with the potential of becoming a long term investment, if things do turn around for the money-losing retailer.

While CVS and WAG are the extremely dominant competitors in the sector - not to mention that they all also compete with Wal Mart (WMT) - there is the potential for RAD to steal some market share away from each one, if only because they have so little of it right now. Also, as CC stated in the above email, as the economy recovers Rite Aid is sure to bring in more cash. Based on these factors, I think that RAD has the potential to at least reach the current 52-week high in the near to mid future and therefor I could support a speculative mid-term-minded buy with the stock.

Now for the other side of the story; I think that Rite Aid is a company on the brink and I wouldn't put anything but a few speculative dollars into this stock. The competition out there is fierce for RAD and there's really nothing to offer that would pull consumers away from the big boys of the sector.

Additionally, the short interest has risen dramatically over the past couple of months, which means that many are betting against the company - but it also means that if things improve, the price could rise a bit as shorts begin to cover. Unlike the biotech sector - where FDA approvals cover up for horrible balance sheets and a surprise approval can surge a stock just on short covering - Rite Aid has nothing to cover up the horrible balance sheets. One big quarter of growth, however, could lead to the mini-run that Citizen Chin is looking for. But I have to admit that I am not just yet a believer.

Naturally, I congratulate you on the ride from thirty cents - that was a good trade on your part. I think the risk/reward at that price was a no-brainer, but I'm hesitant to give the all-clear for the stock at these levels.

Speculate if you like, but don't fall in love with this one. It's still a big money losing company and I personally think that its days are numbered over the long term.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.



SOMX: A comment from John regarding Somaxom Pharmaceuticals:

hi,

Can i have your take on SOMX? They have a FDA approval coming on 4 Dec, is it worth accumulating now while the price is still low.

John

VFC's Take: I'll start off with a disclosure that I do not make it a habit of investing in sleep disorder and insomnia drugs because there are just so many already on the market, in additiona to quite a few generics. The potential to eat up immediate market share would be pretty tough for a new kid on the block, although the insomnia market is a multi billion dollar one, and growing.

For Somaxom, I imagine that those reasons - in addition to the refusal by the FDA to approve Silenor on the first go-round - are why the company has yet to land a partner to market their own insomnia drug (Silenor) to date. A partner would be crucial for this company's survival even with the approval, in my opinion, because there would need to be an influx of cash to launch and market the product post-approval; an amount of cash that this company does not have on the books.

In the latest quarterly report, the CEO stated that the company's goal is to partner the drug in order to maximize the market potential of the product.

There are some things to like about a speculative investment with this company. The current market cap of roughly fifty six million does not justify an approval price - in my opinion - although it is not priced for an FDA denial either. It is my opinion that SOMX will move up as the December 4th approval date approaches and investors may have a chance to flip a few shares pre-approval to cover their base just in case the FDA denies approval.

It's difficult to come up with a post-approval price when there is no licensing agreement in place to judge future revenue, but a market cap of about 150-200 million would be about right, in my opinion, based on what we know now; and what we know now is that there is no partner, the company needs money and the product would be entering a crowded market. When things become clearer, I think the market cap could move up from that point, but I wouldn't expect too big a move unless a heavyweight pharma comes on board to market the drug.

If you take into consideration that Silenor has some advantages over existing drugs, according to the write-up on the company's website, my estimates may be a tad conservative - but of course the company is going to describe their own product as preferable to others, so only time will tell how well Silenor could do on the market.

Another factor to consider is the current trend of stocks dropping after FDA approvals, after enjoying a strong run up into the decision date. That is always a possibility with SOXM, especially if a partner has materialized before that time; it's a long way to market between FDA approval and commercial launch without a partner, and investors will be keenly aware of that fact. Just something to consider.

If the FDA denies approval, which is always a possibility, then the stock hits sub-fifty cents again, in my opinion, so there is risk.

I would play this one as a speculative short term buy leading up to the approval date - meaning I'd buy a bit now, add on any dips (if there are any) and then sell some shares into any run up to reduce my overall exposure to the stock as December approaches.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: SNDY, SPNGE, The Value of Experience

SNDY.pk: A comment from Lenny regarding Solos Endoscopy, in response to my post on Friday:

Hi Vinny,

I had also been doing a little DD on SNDY but only found 15 million shares outstanding - where did you find approx 1 billion? That makes a huge difference!!

Lenny

VFC's Take: Good question, and the difference between those two numbers is huge.

My information for the share numbers regarding this stock was taken directly from the Pink Sheets website. The stats for Solos were surprisingly up-to-date, from what I could tell; the market cap was up to date to the day and the outstanding shares numbers were about a month old. The pink sheet numbers are not always that up to date.

Disclosure: No position SNDY.



SPNGE: A comment from Scott regarding SpongeTech:

I have to say, SPNG has me completely baffled. I really thought the 10-k was going be filed by Friday, and the sales numbers would be verified. D&T backing out is a red flag to be sure (even though we have no idea what their motive is to do so, PR issues, etc.) Now the company is running the risk of a serious PR backlash, and that could get them caught in a downward spiral with regard to sales and marketing. If they don't get the financials cleared up soon, this is not going to end well.

Scott

VFC's Take: All valid points and concerns, that is why it is tough to make a call on whether SPNGE is a buy, sell or hold upon the resumption of trading.

However, things would really have to go south for sales to suffer that dramatically, in my opinion. It's unlikely that Joe the car wash guy is going to change his mind about buying a car wash sponge because of something he heard about a 10-k.

If, however, for some reason the company is forced to take product off the market or is hampered in continuing production in any way, then that could be a problem; but I don't think that retail shoppers of cheap products are going to base a Sponge Bob purchase on the PR firm backing out.

That being said, the stock could suffer - as you say - if the press gets worse and if the updated financial report is not released in a timely manner.

At this point, it's still a wait-and-see game. I do expect to see at least a small drop when trading resumes - whether the updated reports are good or bad - because there will be investors just looking to run away from the turmoil and confusion; those investors are probably sitting on pins and needles right now while the stock is not trading.

Unless dire news hits, I'll probably add to my position on any drop. I'm not heavily vested in this one at all compared to my overall portfolio, but if things look decent enough with the updated finances, then I'll be glad to pick up a few more shares on the cheap while those with a weak stomach for volatility run for cover.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNGE.



A couple of comments regarding investing experience; one from Alejandro, the other from Lenny:

Hi VFC
As always, your comments are very instructive, and I have told you many times how I´m learning a lot from your sharing. Sometimes when I read your comments about your past experiences (or inexperience) I understand that if I hadn´t found this blog I would have kept making the same mistakes and I would have run out of money very quickly.
I have some fun anecdotes (well no so fun, I lost a lot of money), one of them is regarding to the reverse split (that you have explained some comments below), I used to have some shares of AIG,at first when it did a reverse split I didn´t know what it means, so I saw the value of my shares many times higher, I remember being just celebrating because I multiplied the amount of shares that I had bought with the following reverse split value. Well, as you have said, after a reverse split the value usually drops, and it did, so finally my happiness end when I realized that the amount of shares were twenty times lower, and I had lost a lot of money because it had dropped a lot (no more champagne for me).

Well I just wanted to share my INEXPERIENCE, and tell you one more time how much I have learnt and how much I appreciate that you share your knowledge, it is priceless.
Even when you have told us many times that you don´t do this for money, and when personally I like very much the idea of charity, I still feel that I owe you, so I wonder if would help you at least with a penny if I click the adds that you have on the blog (Don´t get me wrong, I know that a penny is not enough and doesn´t represent what I think would be right, but I could do it every day, after all, in a week I would be "paying" you with the cost of a share of Biel, wich if you are patient, you will be seeing it increasing many times =P )...
Thanks for your time... in this oportunity I wrote just to say to all good luck and have a good weekend!

Ale

Hi Vinny,

Alejandro has touched on something for me as well .... I have been investing since the 1980's and been making the same mistakes! I also feel I owe you something (besides all the beers or champagne - if we ever get a chance to enjoy a few).

Have a great weekend,

Lenny

VFC's Take: I like both of these stories because we all know that there are those out there that are doing just the same thing. I especially appreciate the feedback because I look back to when I first started investing and I simply had nowhere to go to get a good, unbiased opinion on certain stocks and trading strategies.

There are a load of subscription sites out there, but there were none that catered to little guy and few that even entertained some of the stocks that I was looking at.

I learned fast that I couldn't trust the big pay sites because they too often never mentioned a nice speculative stock until it had already run up significantly. At that point they would either tell investors not to buy it (and I'd always wonder why they never told me to buy it before it went up 200%) or they's 'start coverage' on the stock and say that the run could continue (after the most significant gains had already been had).

I decided that if I was going to make any significant money in the market as a small investor, I'd have to find these stocks BEFORE a big run, not hear about it from a pay-site when it was already too late. And the big analysts? Forget about it; those guys recommend stocks to the retail investors when they are at or near their highs and won't call it a sell until it has already declined off those highs fairly significantly - after their 'big boy' friends have already had a chance to get out. Of course, that's just all my opinion, but based on what I've seen and followed. I remember getting into Sun Microsystems at two and a half bucks when the stock was being slaughtered by the analysts and stock screeners. When it reached five dollars or so it started getting some nice BUY ratings and that was the final straw for me. I told myself that I'm not here to be played like a puppet, I'm here to make a few extra bucks. Since I couldn't find a good small investor community at the time and I had no one around with the same investing style or interests as me (everyone liked the safe stuff that gained maybe 10-15% a year), I knew I had to learn by some good, old fashioned OJT - and I knew that mistakes would be made.

When I started this blog, I had a small group of people in mind; we were never all in one place at the same time to discuss our ideas, so I decided to just post the stocks that I was looking at here along with the reasons why I was looking at them. Now we've got quite a few good tips, trading strategies and experiences coming this way that we can all benefit from.

Like Lenny said, we still make the mistakes years later - we all do. This blog is like therapy for me, too, because it's kept me honest and reminded me to stick to the disciplined strategy of investing that I like to preach.

Anyway, I appreciate the experiences, the feedback and the insights. We all benefit from it.

Don't worry about what I get out of this, because like I said, I think I save myself money with my investments because I remind myself to take profits or not buy too much of a certain stock when I recommend the same things to readers. The feedback and the success stories are good enough payment for me, and I do get a penny or two from the Google AdSense text links which are pay-per-click and I also get a commission on any sales that may result from the picture ads that appear on the page, those are not pay-per-click.

And I'll stress for new readers, I receive no compensation from any company about which I write - if I'm positive on the stock it is because, after my own DD, I was confident enough in the stock to put my own money in it.

Keep the learning experiences coming, we can all use them!

Readers Respond: SPNGE, PPHM

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



SPNGE: An email from Jon regarding SpongeTech:

I'm not sure how to do the blog thing yet but I'll learn, hence this email to you. Meanwhile, I like you, are long SPNGE and am curious of your opinion of what's going to happen to the stock, especially with the trading suspension, the potential class action lawsuit filing, etc. Unless management is totally lying about everything all my DD indicates it's should still be a viable stock to make money in. Your take, please, on the impact of all the recent news...should one accumulate more shares at the end of the trading suspension? Or get out totally?

I appreciate your incite in your blogs as you seem to be like the rest of us little guys just trying to get ahead.

Thanks,

Jon

VFC's Take: As far as whether to buy the stock or not when trading resumes, I will take a wait and see approach. My view is that while the stock has been halted, sales of the company's products have not halted so i see no reason why this company cannot recover after all the finance fiasco is said and done. There are those that will be quick to sell with all the lawsuits and financing drama still on the wires, so a further drop in price is definitely a possibility.

However, the slew of lawsuits that were recently filed wouldn't scare me away from the stock because there is nothing more American than filing a lawsuit; it's a matter of them proving that the SpongeTech investors intentionally did something wrong. The one lawsuit that I am interested in seeing the outcome of is the trademark infringement lawsuit that was filed against the pretenders in California.

I'm going to wait and see what the stock does upon the resumption of trading. If it ticks to the upside, then I'll hold. If it dips, I'll probably add a few more shares. If it dips significantly, I'll add even more because the lower the stock goes the, better it will rebound if accurate sales figures show real growth.

All just my opinion, base your final decision on your own DD.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNGE.



PPHM: A comment from Kenneth regarding Peregrine Pharmaceuticals:

Dear VFC,
I was wondering what impact the reverse stock spilt would have on the stock price of Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (PPHM). Have really enjoyed reading your posts daily and always appreciate your input.

Many thanks,
Kenneth

VFC's Take: On Monday, October 19th, a one for five reverse stock split will take effect for PPHM, meaning that investors will receive one share for every five in their portfolio. The market cap remains the same in a reverse stock split, but because there are a reduced number of shares on the back end of the split, the share price is higher. The value of the shares (as per market cap) remains the same.

That was a brief recap for the new investors who may not be familiar with the reverse split.

Many times a stock price will decline after a reverse split, and that may very well be the case with PPHM. The company has nothing in late stage trials and there is no news pending, that I am aware of, that would boost up the share price post-split, so I am fully expecting a decline next week. I am also expecting that I will continue my accumulation of the stock.

While still in early stages of development, Peregrine's Bavituximab with its tumor fighting capabilities, holds quite a bit of potential in the Oncology market, in my opinion. The company is also developing Cotara to treat patients with "high grade brain cancer".

In addition to using Bavituximab to stimulate the immune system to fight cancerous cells, the product is also being investigated for its effectiveness in fighting various infectious diseases.

Because of the above-outlined potential of Peregrine's products, I will continue accumulating the stock, especially if we see a nice price cut after the reverse split takes effect.

The only event that would make me think twice about continuing my accumulation is if there were bad news from the pipeline released in accordance with the RS. If that were the case I'd have to digest the news and then consider whether or not the stock was still worth accumulating.

If you're investing on the potential of the pipeline, and nothing regarding the pipeline changes, then I think that the RS is a non-factor and my give investors a discounted price to buy.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long PPHM.

Readers Respond: SQNM, CHFI, SNDY,

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



SQNM: A comment from Pete regarding Sequenom, Inc.:

Hello VFC,

I love reading your comments and insight, keep up the good work. Not a day goes by without me learning something new by reading your posts.

I still have a question on your take of Sequenom (SQNM). Any comments?

Thanks in advance.

-Pete

VFC's Take: Appreciate the comments. It's a two-way street here, I think that all involved have something to offer and we can all learn a thing or two from each other. That's the best part of putting a whole bunch of good minds in one place - a whole lotta great investing ideas can be put to action.

As for SQNM: The recent turmoil surrounding Sequenom and the mishandling of the Down Syndrome test results still has me a bit weary of buying stock in the company, although I do see the argument that this is a "buy while the kicked dog is still down" stock, as I described in a previous post about the stock.

That being said, I've decided that if I am going to dabble in this stock, I'm going to dabble in the options, which are very cheap right now. I like the long call options for 2011 because that gives the company plenty of time to get their ducks in a row and re-examine the Down Syndrome data. With the options currently trading for a low price, I like the idea of potentially controlling a lot more shares through options than can be purchased on the open market for the same amount of money.

If the stock rebounds, it should rebound nicely making those options an attractive play right now, in my opinion.

SQNM is a nice rebound play because people are scared stiff of the stock right now, and I can understand a speculative investment in the stock, but if I get in, I'm going to do it via long call options.

Disclosure: No position.



CHFI.ob: A comment from Lenny regarding China Finance, Inc.:

Hi Vinny,

These forums are great!

I was doing my little lunchtime browse on the MB's and saw a reference to CHFI on the CVM board. This is a Chinese financing company, the stock has had quite a run over the last couple of weeks. It is trading around 40 cents right now, I don't see anything 'negative'.

If you get a chance, can you let us know?

Tks!

Lenny

VFC's Take: I'm on the fence with this one. The recent run has been spectacular for shareholders that bought near the lows or on the way up, but with no news released in quite some time, I'm hesitant to buy into the hype.

That being said, I could understand a bit of 'night on the town' money going into this stock because if the company is doing what it says it is doing on the website, then it will benefit from the growing Chinese economy.

I can't shake the pump & dump feeling on this one for some reason, maybe I'm just a bit more sceptical than others about Chinese bulletin board companies, but the website looks too much like propaganda to me. I know that one of the missions of this company is to get Chinese businesses an 'in' with American companies, but I don't get the picture of the NYSE on the main page of a Chinese company.

And then the "Ray of Sunshine" page just screams of propaganda. This company reminds me too much of the guy that opens up his jacket and has a whole bunch of shiney Rolexes for you at a great price.

Do your own DD on this one and make sure that you buy and sell based on your DD and not on pure emotion.

I'm going to pass on this one because I think that it could drop just as fast as it rises. I may miss out on a continued run, but I'll be able to sleep a lot easier at night because I won't get the feeling that I've bought into a company that was set up to make money for a bunch of criminals.

Disclosure: No position.



SNDY.pk: An anonymous comment regarding Solos Endoscopy:

Hi VFC! Thank you for taking the time to post your thoughts! Your posts are very informative, helpful, and much appreciated! What are your thoughts on SNDY.PK (Solos Endoscopy)? It seems like they have a lot of good things going for them, including early detection cancer products, one is FDA approved. The stock is only at .02 cents and had a decent run over the last few days. I'd love your thoughts. Thanks again!

VFC's Take: Solos Endoscopy is a decent enough 'night on the town' play while trading for roughly three cents and a market cap of about 16 million.

Friday's sixty percent rise could be attributed to a press release announcing that Solos has received multiple purchase orders for its MammoView product line, and those orders could increase further on down the road as Solos looks to expand into the European market.

There are some concerns - nearly a billion shares outstanding and two billion authorized. However, if the company can line up some good partners and/or hire an effective sales staff, then there's no doubt that the potential is there for the market cap to rise from the sixteen million level.

For the short term, I'll add it to my watch list and look to see if the stock consolidates or retreats after the nice runup. For the long term, it all depends on how well this company can market its products and compete with the big boys for market share.

Disclosure: No position.

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Readers Respond: ONTY, OGXI, BIEL, NVD

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



ONTY, OGXI: A comment from Muhammad regarding Oncothyreon and OncoGenex:

Dear VFC,
This is the third time a send to you and I am hoping I will be lucky this time and get some feedback from you. I know you are very busy, get a lot of emails and this blog is just hobby. I am an overseas investor and really need your help. In your opinion, which pick is better; ONTY or OGXI.
Thanks in advance,
Muhammad

VFC's Take: Sorry it has taken me so long to get back, sometimes it's tough to keep up for the reasons that I've mentioned before and Muhammad re-iterated in his comment.

As for ONTY and OGXI, I'll offer my opinion on the two stocks, but your own DD should be the deciding factor as to which stocks you invest in.

I think that a speculative investment into either one has the potential to pay off in the mid to long term, even after the humongous run enjoyed by OGXI already this year. However, I like ONTY just a bit better at this point and I'll explain my reasons why; however, also keep in mind that I am long ONTY and have no position in OGXI - although like anyone else out there I would have liked to have been along for the ride with other OGXI investors earlier this year.

The first reason I like ONTY just a bit better is because of the price. This is more of a psychological factor because market cap is what is really important, not price, but many small investors look at the quantity of shares that they hold vice considering the quality. The fact that you can buy 100 shares of ONTY for the same price as 15 shares of OGXI does come into play with the small investor because an investor may be inclined to spend more speculative money than they should in an attempt to boost their overall number of shares. For instance, a small investor using the Sharebuilder automatic investing plan may put five hundred dollars towards OGXI in order to see a nice boost in the number of shares when in reality that investor should only be putting two fifty in the plan.

I say this because I've made that mistake myself before I started to trade with a little bit more discipline. You can't ignore the psychological factor of a lower price, but all investors should keep in mind that it is market cap that matters, not price.

Another thing that I like about ONTY is that Stimuvax is on the back end of Phase III trials while the most advanced product candidate in the Oncogenex pipeline is still looking to commence Phase III. That tells me that ONTY has the more immediate chance to post the higher percentage gains. Since the Oncogenex pipeline - which I consider to be superior to the Oncothyreon pipeline when it's all said and done - is still awaiting a Phase III trial, I don't see a double or a triple in price from the current levels anytime soon while I do think that ONTY has the chance to double or triple in the short to mid term - based on any updates or interim Phase III data for Stimuvax.

As for overall pipelines, I think that Oncogenex has the better potential for a long term payoff because of the amount of product candidates in the pipeline and the number of indications for which they are being investigated, but that is not to say that Stimuvax and the small molecule pipeline of Oncothyreon is any slouch either.

ONTY is currently in my buy zone - below five bucks - while I'll need to keep OGXI on my watch list for a little while to see how it trades before coming up with my buy price.

After the huge run in OGXI this year, I think that from this point moving forward for the short to mid term, ONTY has the better potential to post the higher percentage gains, but I also think that OGXI is still trading at a market cap low enough that allows for a continued move to the upside, but don't expect the monumental gains of earlier in the year.

For those that rode OGXI up from three dollars - congrats.

Disclosure: Long ONTY, no position OGXI.



BIEL.pk: A comment from Scott regarding BioElectronics:

I've dipped my toe in with BIEL, but these shares are pricey. With 900 million shares outstanding, they will have to clear 7 mm in net income before they can justify today's price. That will take a top-line boost of probably 10 times or more.

Scott

VFC's Take: Nice strategy, "dip your toe in" and see what happens. If the stock starts to run on positive FDA news, then you won't miss out and if it continues down, then you can average down if that's your liking. I like that strategy for entering into a stock.

While the shares are "pricey" now, this is a buy on the future - not on today or tomorrow - in my opinion. If the imminent FDA news is positive, then the potential for a dramatic increase in sales should also increase the stock price and - similar to CSUH - an increase in sales will catch up to what appears to be a "pricey" stock in the 'now' term.

Thanks for the input.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.



NVD: A comment from Noah regarding NovaDel:

Hi VFC,
What are your thoughts on the PR from Novadel this morning? Do you think their worth buying back into since their goal is to have licenses in place for the approved drugs by end of the 2009 Fiscal Year?

Thanks,
Noah

VFC's Take: The quote from Friday's press release regarding the progress of the licensing agreements follows, as copied directly from the PR:

Mr. Ratoff noted that NovaDel is actively engaged in licensing its two approved drugs, NitroMist™ and ZolpiMist™, and the Company’s goal is that licenses will be in place by the end of this 2009 fiscal year. Mr. Ratoff indicated that if that objective is achieved, these products could be launched by the licensee as early as the third quarter of 2010.

What I find interesting about this comment from Mr. Ratoff is the fact that he sounds like one of us small investors speculating on what is possible from the country rather than discussing a definitive plan from the company - most notably "if" that objective is achieved and "could" be launched.

NovaDel has done nothing in the past year to lead me to believe that they're finally getting their cards in order, but for twenty five cents I would support the idea of a speculative buy - but I wouldn't go crazy. That's just my opinion.

I'm also curious as to why, if the licenses will be in place by the end of FY2009 we won't see the products on the market until the second half of 2010. Leads me to believe that there are production issues.

On an additional note, the company has no money on hand to advance the remaining pipeline at this time - as stated in Friday's PR.

This is one speculative stock that is trading where it should - in my opinion - but there is a chance that the stock could move up later this year after the announcement of the licensing agreements (if they ever materialize). As to how much upside potential exists, I'm not willing to make a bet right now because I have to believe that NovaDel's products are not in high demand - due to the lapsed time between FDA approval and a licensing agreement. However, with a market cap of only sixteen million, I think that a spike to a buck could be in order if the licensing agreements materialize and the time to product launch draws nearer.

I will pass on buying back into this one, but I could understand a speculative buy based on the potential to have some licensing agreements in place sometime soon.

Disclosure: No position.

Briefs: MHAN, GNBT, MSBT

MHAN.ob: Shares of Manhattan Pharmaceuticals continue to trade in the seven to ten cent range as investors continue to anticipate an FDA decision on Hedrin sometime in the first half of next year, the time frame given by the company in previously released statements.

Until investors are given additional guidance, it's safe to assume that we may not hear much from the company until that time, as the directors at Manhattan have not been masters of releasing information in the past.

I still think that MHAN will see a very significant price spike (in terms of percentages) between now and the time of a Hedrin approval, although I do not consider MHAN a solid long term pick because I can't shake the belief that the directors at the company are more interested in taking care of their 'boys' instead of taking care of the shareholders. I base this opinion on the previous lack of information released by MHAN and the recent merger with Ariston.

Investors waiting for a news release regarding Hedrin need to be patient. The stock is back to trading under the radar after its quick rise to over ten cents from just below a penny and if good Hedrin news hits the wires, another quick spike could be in store.

MHAN is still a highly speculative risk/reward play that may not pan out, but I felt the potential of Hedrin, a non-pesticide treatment for head lice, was worth a few speculative dollars.

Also, when doing your DD on this stock, keep in mind that Manhattan only has a license for the North American rights to Hedrin - they have no connections or ties to Hedrin sold overseas.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHAN.



GNBT: Shares of Generex traded relatively flat on Friday morning after the company announced that Oral-Lyn, Generex's spray insulin product that was recently highlighted in the NY Times, was commercially launched by partner Continental Pharma Laboratories in Algeria earlier this week.

The Algerian launch of the product now has Oral-Lyn approved in four countries, India, Lebanon, Ecuador and of course, Algeria. Additionally, the FDA has allowed emergency use of the product in the United States, but that is no indication as to whether or not they will approve when decision time comes.

The Algerian launch gives the company another opportunity to bring in some revenue, but the real news will be a successful Phase III trial in the US and a possible FDA approval in 2010.

Aside from the ongoing US Phase III trial, for which results are due in either 4Q 2009 or 1Q 2010, Oral-Lyn is also being evaluated in Phase III trials at various sites around the world, according to the company's web site.

I still like GNBT as a speculative play and I think that a rise to over one dollar is in order based on either pure speculation or positive news on the US Phase III trial. Because of the fact that GNBT's RapidMist spray does not utilize the lungs in any way to deliver insulin into the blood stream, I think that Oral-Lyn has the opportunity to eventually become the market leader for insulin delivery - if approved.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.



MSBT.ob: The volatility of MedaSorb continue during early trading on Friday as shares of MSBT traded to the upside by 30%, reaching a high of over twenty cents.

After the company rasied $1.3 million last week in the exercise of warrants the stock traded down to around the fifteen cent level this week before Friday morning's rebound. The money raised, according to Dr. Phillip Chan, CEO of MedaSorb, will be used to fund the finalities of the European sepsis trial for lead product candidate CytoSorb.

Results are due later this year from that sepsis trial and the stock price should inch upwards in anticipation of those results because if positive - and especially if approved for use - CytoSorb could be a big seller seeing as how there is currently no effective treatment for severe sepsis.

I still think it might be just a bit early to rule out any additional dips into the mid teens, but time is becoming thin to get in before the release of the upcoming results.

However, the days of MSBT trading for below ten cents are finished, in my opinion, unless the results of the CytoSorb trial are negative.

This stock is still a high risk/high reward play - as treating sepsis is a tough call, hence no established current treatment - but I don't think that the current market cap of about eight million justifies even the short term potential of the stock.

MSBT is definitely a stock to watch in the fourth quarter.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

Readers Respond: Additional Insight Into the Recent Drop of BIEL

An anonymous comment regarding BioElectronics:

Hi VFC,

I am not attempting to influence anything here, but just a word of caution on your stated buy in of BIEL at .065. There really is not much support below that price down to near the .03 level. On the other hand, there is a preliminary report due out on the comparison study with Tylenol this month, around the 24th. Being a pessimist, and looking at the continuing distribution on increasing volume I have to wonder if that report might not be that good. But, in any event, I just wanted to send a word of caution about the support levels relative to your next buy in price.

My apologies if this type post is unwanted.

I do not own BIEL , yet.

VFC's Take: I do not mind posts or statements contradictory to my own, and if fact I welcome them - if they are based on the facts and not an attempt to mislead.

Fair enough if this poster believes that BIEL is heading down to the three cent level - he or she did say that he or she is a pessimist; but if this stock were to hit three cents again without news having been released to justify the drop, I would probably be inclined to triple my position. I'd love to get in that low again since the last time that the stock traded for three cents I didn't have the free cash on the sidelines to add as much as I would have liked.

However, with penny stocks - especially those that trade for below ten cents - I don't pay much attention to "support levels" or "resistance levels". I'm of the opinion that these are news-driven stocks and if good news strikes then the stock will move based on the potential of that news to positively impact the company and the stock further on down the road, not because a bunch of speculators are sitting there looking at charts of a five cent stock.

Likewise, if bad news hits - for instance, an FDA denial - then the stock is going to trade down based on the decrease of projected revenue and I don't believe the chart watchers would start buying at four cents (for example) because the chart said so if that price could not be supported by potential future sales.

As for the mentioned comparison study, because of the risks to the liver that Tylenol poses that are becoming more of a concern by the public and the regulatory agencies, all BioElectronics needs to do is show that the product is just about as effective as Tylenol, in my opinion, because the health benefits speak for themselves. The BioElectronics products don't need to blow Tylenol (or Ibuprofen) out of the water for that reason.

I personally try to avoid Tylenol myself - I prefer to save my liver for the vodka tonics or dry martinis - but the wifey gets on my case when I've got a fever or something and insists that I use Tylenol to bring it down.

As I was about to press the 'publish' button, another reader posted this comment:

The recent decline in BIEL is due the speculation that the FDA would approve Actipatch/Allay by Oct. 15th. Biomedreports.com originally listed Oct. 15th as the decision date. When nothing was released yesterday morning, some investors sold. This date was mostly arbitrary and just an estimate of the FDA decision, but it did have an impact on the stock price.

VFC, could you put together a post for investors regarding the FDA and how the process works? It seems silly that investors tried to "time" an FDA decision but I think that's what happened over the last couple of days with BIEL.

VFC's Take: Good insight, as there are those investors out there that live by the FDA approval dates and will sell if that date passes with no news.

I will try and put together a post regarding the FDA process if I get the time, but I do try to point out in many posts that the FDA is just another government agency at the end of the day, and when have we ever known the government to do anything on time?

The FDA, according to some statements of their own in previously released public statements, has a lot on the table right now and I'm also assuming that there was a large amount of turnover this year as a result of a new administration coming into office.

I always emphasize - if nothing has changed with your stock, and the stock dips, then take advantage of the opportunity to add - if your own DD supports that action.

For VFC, I'll be adding on the dip.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Readers Respond: BIEL

A comment from Alejandro regarding BioElectronics:

Hi VFC

What would your thoughts about the recent decline of BIEL?
Has it been manipulated? I don´t understand it. wHy do you think it has recently dropped to the 0,07 range. My speculative thoughts were that BIEL nowadays would be trading at 0.1 just waiting for the preliminary data of the comparative study with tylenol wich is expected in this days and the FDA decision (wich I´m confidence will be positive)...
I bought a bunch of shares at 0.088, a little highest than my average position...
Even when you has talked a lot about biel and your position on it... I wonder if I´m missing something? There are some rumor or information that I should know?
Thanks in advance... (I´m reading the post about EXERCISE PATIENCE again).



VFC's Take: Currently, BIEL is another example of having to rely on your own DD and having the fortitude to either hold onto your position or add to it.

As I mentioned in the 'Exercise Patience' post, it's one thing if a stock declines on bad news - at that point an investor will need to decide if there is potential for rebound or if it is a 'cut your losses and run' scenario.

However, it's a completely a different story when a stock declines for no apparent reason - especially in this age of increased volatility.

Here's my opinion on BIEL's decline - nothing has changed with the company or the potential of its products so I am ready to add to my position if the stock drops down to my buy price; at this time, my buy price is .065 cents.

As I've mentioned many times before, I think that ActiPatch has the potential to post huge world wide sales as Tylenol and Ibuprofen fall out of favor because of medical concerns.

Additionally, the stock recently had the 'CAVEAT EMPTOR' removed from its symbol on the pink sheets which should have drew in new investors; investors who may be getting in for somewhat of a discounted price than where the stock was trading at the time of the caveat removal. While it would be difficulat to judge how much new interest the removal of the caveat drew in, there is no doubt that the "Caveat Emptor" on a stock scares investors away.

There has been nothing negative released by either the company or the FDA to alter my current opinion on the stock, an opinion that I based on my own DD.

Is it possible that the stock is drifting down because of speculation that the FDA may deny the current ActiPatch applications for approval? Sure, that's possible. Based on the FDA's previous approvals, I deem that scenario unlikely, but the FDA is a fickle bunch and the agency is highly unpredictable at times, so it would be foolish to rule anything out.

However, I'm relying on my DD with this one and my DD has me believing that the FDA is likely to approve, in my opinion, and that ActiPatch has the potential to be a big seller - also in my opinion. I also believe that the company is doing what it can to gain legitimacy in the market place, the first step being the removal of the Caveat Emptor from the stock.

Another possibility is the 'contrary indicator' scenario - similar to AGEN's decline in May before the pop to over two bucks and CSUH's decline a couple of weeks ago before that stock's recent pop.

If that is the case, then I'm led to believe that an FDA decision may be close and some big boys are getting in for a discounted price. If that discounted price hits .065 cents, then I'm adding.

I always like buying a stock for below where I think it should be trading.

Also, thanks for the comment, Alejandro, it's always good to hear from you.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Readers Respond: Question on Investing New Money and Investment Strategies for the New Investor

A comment from Carson regarding VFC's take on investing new money and strategies for buying:

Are thought to publishing a suggested portfolio for new money in the near future?
Also, how would you time the purchases in order to roll profits.

Carson Wade

VFC's Take: Appreciate the comment. I am going to be honest and say that I cannot in good conscience dedicate a post suggested how potential investors should allocate their new money. At VFC's Stock House I like to re-iterate the point that each and every investor (or potential investor) should rely on their own DD to figure out what the best investments for them may be.

The main reason that I say this is because everyone has their own tolerance for risk, their own stomach for 'buying the dips,' and their own personality profile for deciding which stocks they like. That's why I like the idea of investors sharing their DD, research, ideas and opinions; but the decision to buy is based solely on the decision of that investor who is buying.

For example, some investors like to buy and hold and some like to trade in and out to eventually have their full investment being played on house money; and each one's portfolio would be different based on their preferences.

Additionally, I'm a fan of personal responsibility and accountability - a quality that seems to be disappearing from the every day life in the American society.

I've said before that you should never have a stock in your portfolio - in my opinion - that you look at and you don't know why you bought it. If you look at one of your stocks and your number one reason for buying it was because someone else told you to, then most likely you have no idea when you should buy, sell or add more. That means that there is a whole lot of DD to be done to come up with an entry/exit strategy or that stock should be sold immediately because you've got no idea why it's sitting there.

Therefor, I think that I would be personally defeating my message if I posted VFC's suggestions for new money. I like sharing ideas, experiences and opinions in order to give others a starting point for their DD, not a finishing point.

On that note, I will pass on the new money question, but I will re-emphasize some of my own personal buying strategies for those that may be new to the blog:



First, in the following posts I've described pretty in-depth my opinions and strategies for entry and exit points:

When to Take Gains & Where to Start DD
VFC's Investing Lessons Learned
Exercise Patience

Here's a brief recap of what I cover in those articles, but I suggest they be read in order to get my full opinions on the subjects:

- I rarely (if ever) use the full amount of money that I have set aside for a particular stock on my first buy. I like to accumulate stocks while the are still flying below the radar (sometimes for years, as was the case with my buying CVM years ago), but if I do find one that is already 'noticed', then I will buy into that stock for at the most half of what I eventually want to put into it. This way, if news hits and the stock rises, then I'll at least be along for the ride. However, if the stock drops - then I still have money on the sidelines with which to average down.

- I never buy into a stock before conducting the DD and coming up with my own entry/exit strategy for that stock. I discuss my entry/exit strategies in the posts I've linked above, but I always decide whether the investment is a short/mid/long term investment and then I try to attach an exit strategy to those time frames. For instance, I sold some shares of CSUH at twenty five cents because part of my exit strategy was to sell some of the shares that I had purchased at .025 cents for a ten-bagger trade, regardless of the price action of the stock. Which brings me to my next point,

- Always realize some profits as the stock rises. No one can predict when the market is going to crash big or when planes will fly into buildings and send the global stock markets reeling. Also, it's necessary to reward yourself for your hard earned DD and sticking to your sell plans allows you to do just that. It also keeps you grounded so that you don't get too greedy and convince yourself that a stock is going to keep rising.

- Exercise patience. It is important to be realistic with your entry/exit strategies when you devise them, but it's even more important to stick with them. If you buy AGEN with a one or two year outlook, don't start getting antsy when the stock doesn't double in a month. This is especially true for stocks that have already enjoyed a good run; allow time for profit taking/consolidation.

- I, personally, like to try and trade in and out of a speculative stock in order to at least be on 'house money' by the time that big news hits. Breaking even is better than losing it all, but that is a strategy for those that may have the time to consistently keep their eyes on the market. I use a handful of 'trading shares', once I have a nice 'base' of shares to accomplish this, but keep in mind that this strategy is pretty stressful and has increased short term tax implications vice the long term 'buy the dips and hold' strategy, which I also employ on many stocks.

- Be confident in your DD. Your own DD should be what dictates when you buy and sell a stock; and the DD should be the basis for an entry and exit strategy. If your DD is sound, you'll have the intestinal fortitude to buy when others sell or sell when others are buying. Without the sound foundation of your own DD you entire investment could go south because you won't know how to react when the time arises to react.

Thanks for the comments, Carson, and sorry about not doing a 'where to put your new money' post, but I'd rather provide a starting point for other investors to do their own DD than lay out a plan for someone else who may not have the same risk/reward views that I do.

Volatility that may be nothing to me will give other investors ulcers - take all the ones who sold in fear out of CVM over the past week on the drop when others - like me - were buying the dip.

This is all just my own opinions based on my own experiences. Everyone should devise their own investment strategies and develop their own plans for entry/exit strategies based on their own investing comfort levels.

Readers Respond: ANX, ARIA

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD. I don't invent the facts that are based in publicly available information, I just comment on them.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments asking for 'VFC's Take' on numerous stocks that readers have found, I'll do my best to address as many as I can, as long as everyone takes a few things into account while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why VFC's Take is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



ANX: A comment from Ian regarding Adventrx Pharmaceuticals:

Hi VFC,

What do you think of ANX? Do you this FDA approval will be granted next year if they submit their NDA this year for ANX-530?

Please share with us your thoughts.

Regards,
ian

VFC's Take: I've commented on this stock a couple of times already at the request of readers, the following links will take you to those posts:

Readers Respond: ANX
VFC's ANX Update

I maintain my stance that ANX could be a good speculative play for the short to mid term as the stock should drift higher as the date for the ANX-530 NDA filing approaches. The stock could then drift upwards as the date to the FDA decision approaches. I am not going to take a guess as to whether or not the FDA will approve because the FDA is a fickle bunch and I have not followed this stock extensively, but I will say that I would sell some of my trading shares on any significant spikes in order to be on 'house money' by the time FDA decision time was imminent.

A recent announcement of financing knocked the stock price down a little bit offering new investors a chance to get in for a little bit cheaper than before. Barring any bad news, this stock should at least surpass its current 52-week high, in my opinion, based purely on speculation.

Something else to take note of, the company is pretty confident in their future because a PR released last month indicates that they are shooting for a listing on the Nasdaq exchange. I would imagine the listing on the Nasdaq would not be an option until post-approval of ANX-530. Adventrx still needs to worry about meeting the listing requirements for the AMEX, but they have been granted an extension to do so.

Disclosure: No position.



ARIA: A comment from Doran regarding Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc.:

Hi VFC,
thanks for sharing.
can you also let us know your take at ARIA?
thanks
Doran

VFC's Take: ARIA could be a good mid to long term speculative cancer play, in my opinion, based on the potential of Ridaforolimus, the company's small-molecule inhibitor of the mTOR protein in cancerous tumors that Ariad has partnered with Merck & Co. to march the product towards market.

Ridaforolimus is currently being investigated for the treatment of multiple types of cancer, but the most advanced trial (SUCCEED trial) measures the drug's effectiveness in the treatment of metastatic sarcomas.

I like the fact that Merck & Co. is on board, but that is no guarantee that Ridaforolimus makes it to market; if anything goes south with that product, then a big price cut would be in store for this stock - although the company does have additional products in the pipeline in early stages of development.

If you're in since below a buck, congrats! If you're looking to get in for the future potential of Ridaforolimus based on your DD of the product candidate, I'd say buy a few shares and try to play the dips. If RIdaforolimus makes it to market, especially with Merck in Ariad's corner, I expect big things from the ARIA stock.

Just my opinion, all should do their own DD.

Disclosure: No position.

Readers Respond: Finding the Speculative Plays

A comment from Scott regarding finding speculative stocks:

Hi VFC,

I’ve found your posts not only very entertaining, but loaded with opportunities to do DD.

Yet, while I’ve found some terrific companies myself running screens for hours on end, I have not been able to find as many of the speculative stocks like Celsius. My question for you is simple: where do you get your leads? Screens do not reveal companies like this most of the time.

Thanks, Scott



VFC's Take: Good question, Scott. I, like you, spent a whole lot of time on the stock screeners when I first started getting into the speculative market. What I noticed, however, was that the speculative picks would not show up on the screeners and if they did, it was way to late to get in because the stocks had already enjoyed a big run and did not have the same upside as they would have had I come across them months earlier.

I will say that I have tried many things when researching my next picks - newspapers, magazines, search engines, etc.; but the best method for finding good stocks is, in my opinion, through word of mouth.

For instance, a couple of years ago I ran into an old friend and we started having conversations about stock investing. This friend was heavily into healthy living, contrary to VFC's lifestyle burning the candle from both ends, and it was no surprise to me when a few months later - after his stock investing had started to take off - that he tipped me off to CSUH, the stock symbol for the company that had created the world's first calorie burning beverage.

Aside from like-minded friends that share ideas and tips, I think the Internet as a whole is a great place to find good speculative plays. I've found quite a few picks on stock message boards, Yahoo investors groups and through Google searches of a certain sector.

Now, most of my tips come from this blog. I originally started this blog because I had a group of friends who got into the investing game and rather than repeat my DD over and over, I just posted here the stock that I was looking at and my reasoning as to why I liked it. As time went by, more and more people started posting their own tips and ideas and now this blog is a great source to start DD because other investors are posting their favorite stocks.

However, just because someone did their own DD on a stock should not fool someone into thinking that they shouldn't do their own. Everyone has their own "Smell Test" and a stock tip is just a starting point.

For instance, CSUH passed my smell test because America - for all its greatness - is a fat nation, and many Americans enjoy taking the easy way out. Even if the product just became a temporary fad, I figured that enough people would love the idea of burning calories just by drinking a drink to make the investment worth it. I also saw the consumer starting to go healthy, and a product full of vitamins, such as Celsius, was a great alternative to sugary sodas and energy drinks. In fact, I kicked the sugary drinks completely out of my life after my first Celsius, aside from the occasional vodka mixer, and I felt that many others would also change their habits once the product became known.

Many of my cancer picks (AGEN, CVM, ONTY) were a result of my initial 'gamble' with DNDN back in 2007. I had read about Dendreon (DNDN) in a newspaper, if I remember correctly, and bought a few call options that paid off significantly. From there I started researching the cancer immunotherapy sector and liked what I saw. I felt that I was getting in on the ground floor of what I considered to be a groundbreaking new cancer treatment and those initial investments led me to others - by word of mouth.

I hope this helps a bit, but my suggestion is to keep your eyes open for others with similar interests as yours. I fell in love with the bio-pharmaceutical sector because the gains in that sector tend to be a lot bigger than gains in other sectors. I'm a risk reward guy, and the high risk/high reward stocks are easy for me to stomach because I've burned through so much cash making memories and counting hangovers in foreign countries.

The point is, I don't think that there is one source for finding speculative plays, but use all of your resources - friends, like minded investors, the Internet - and you're sure to find something you like.

All potential investors should remember that one should NEVER buy a stock based solely on someone else's opinion of that stock. Any service that says "Buy this stock because I said so" should be ignored, in my opinion. If your using someone else's DD, then use it as a starting point for your own DD because every investor has a different tolerance for risk, a different comfort zone, different opinions of speculation and different indicators of which to base an investment.

Thanks for the comments, appreciate it and good luck!

Briefs: VNDA, TTNP, CPST

VNDA: Shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals closed down by forty one cents on Tuesday after releasing news of a Novartis licensing agreement for schizophrenia drug Fanapt on Monday evening. Questions were raised by many investors as to why the share price would drop after the company released what should be construed as good news.

Part of the reason, in my opinion, is that some investors were probably disappointed that Vanda was not purchased and viewed the licensing agreement as somewhat negative - if only because they would rather have seen the company be purchased so that they could reap the immediate gains of a buyout. Because the licensing agreement consisted of an up-front payment and additional future royalties, many investors looking for significant short term gains probably moved on when VNDA became more of a long term hold.

Additionally, VNDA had 3.85 million shares sold short as of 10 September, according to the Yahoo stats, and those shorts will need to cover at some point. Since it became known that Fanapt will not be commercially launched until January, it allows for more time for short covering.

While I believe that TTNP.pk is still the better play, I do think that the potential sales of Fanapt will eventually catch up with the VNDA stock price and, as time draws closer to the Fanapt launch, I think it will approach $20 at some point next year.

In my opinion, the most interesting aspect of Vanda surviving as a stand alone company is that there really is no pipeline outside of Rest-of-World Fanapt sales and a Phase II sleeping disorder drug, a product candidate for a very saturated market. If Vanda suddenly has a whole lot of cash on hand, and if the company rakes in even more as a result of Novartis 'power-housing' Fanapt onto the market in strong fashion, then you have to wonder if Vanda will make a play to purchase a pipeline, whether it be through purchasing a specific product or two or a smaller company.

Of cousre, this is purely my speculation, but Vanda is going to need to make a move here, in my opinion, and that next move will decide how much upside this stock has.

Disclosure: No position.



TTNP.pk: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals traded to the upside on Tuesday after Vanda's Fanapt licensing agreement with Novartis was announced on Monday.

Titan actually performed somewhat better than I expected and I still consider the stock a buy for below two dollars - for the short term - and I think that any buy for below three dollars is going to be a good one for the long term.

I won't rehash my reasons for making those price calls, but read my post from Monday if you're new to the situation.

Long term shareholders should let the profit takers leave - remember, many are still holding sub-five-cent shares - and as the time gets closer to the Fanapt launch, the TTNP stock price should catch up to its potential.

Also keep in mind that this is still a pink sheet stock and that scares away many investors and institutions.

My own personal speculation has me believing that if Titan is NOT looking to make a move to a major exchange as quickly as possible, then they must have reasons to believe that it's just not worth it; in my opinion, the only reason why it wouldn't be worth it right now would be because they know a buyout is close.

It only makes sense to push for the NASDAQ, or at least the AMEX again, if Titan is to remain a stand alone company.

If you're not in this stock yet, I think that you'll be alright buying it for below two dollars. If you're in - especially if you bought for mere pennies - there's nothing wrong with taking a little bit off the table now, but I do believe that this one is headed higher.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.



CPST: Capstone Turbine's California customer base received a bit of good news on Tuesday when it was announced that, as of 2010, Capstone's microturbines will make them eligible for cash rebates from the California Public Utilities Commission's (CPUC) Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP).

While the news is good for Capstone's customers, and therefor also for Capstone, how the heck does the leadership of that state think they are going to pay for these cash rebates?

This news, while perceived as positive for the CPST stock, is just another example of how out of touch California is with reality. Californians love, absolutely LOVE to see the state government spend money, but no one wants to figure out how to pay for all that spent money.

Earth to California - your intentions are find, but get back down here to reality with the rest of us. You can't even afford to pay your own employees or for the public programs that are getting out of control, how the heck are ya gonna give cash rebates for a Capstone Microturbine?

Disclsoure: VFC is long CPST.

Celsius Announces SUPERVALU Distribution and Then Receives a BUY Rating from Thalmann

CSUH: Shares of Celsius Holding returned to the fifty cent mark on Tuesday, trading on double the average volume after two significant items of news hit the wires during the pre-market hours of the morning.

The first announcement informed investors - and consumers - that the Celsius calorie burning beverage would now be available at the Supervalu family of stores, which includes Acme, Albertsons, Cub Foods, Jewel-Osco, Shaw's/Star Market, Shoppers Food & Pharmacy, and Farm Fresh.

According to the press release, four Celsius flavors (Sparkling Orange and Wild Berry and both Green Tea flavors) are now available for purchase in approximately 1,800 of those stores.

This announcement is a good sign that CEO Steve Haley wasn't kidding around in his recent interview when he declared that there were some major distribution announcements in the works.

In my opinion, based on the content of that interview, Tuesday's announcement is the first in a line of additional distribution agreements that will be keeping the printing presses warm for the PR newswires.

In additional news - and pretty significant if you ask me - the Florida-based Ladenburg Thalmann initiated coverage on Celsius Holdings Tuesday with a rating of BUY and a price target of ninety cents.

This recommendation is no joke. It's one thing for VFC to and other investors out there to call a price target of ninety cents, but when an investment bank calls that target - it gets the attention of a lot of people.

The reasons behind the rating and the price target are no different than the reasons posted by myself and other long term shareholders of the company, but there's no doubt that the words coming from Thalmann hold a lot more weight in the investing community. It's also my opinion that this company would not have jumped on board at this moment in time unless they had a peak at preliminary third quarter numbers. I'm not expecting the world from third quarter, but I do expect to see significant growth, especially after seeing the BUY recommendation today.

Advertising and distribution would move the stock without the Thalmann news, in my opinion, but the move to the upside may come a little bit quicker now. Don't be surprised to see some volatility in the stock as new investors come in and others look to take some profits, but those with a mid to long term outlook are probably going to be sitting pretty by the second quarter of next year - or sooner - in my opinion.

Keep in mind, as distribution and advertising grows, so will the amount of money the company needs to spend for the short term. As CEO Haley stated in his most recent interview, the spending is an investment in the future of the company.

Do your DD, but as additional distribution announcements hit the wires, CSUH could be pretty close to leaving the fifty cent mark in the rear view mirror.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Readers Respond: CVM, SPPI

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD. I don't invent the facts that are based in publicly available information, I just comment on them.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments asking for 'VFC's Take' on numerous stocks that readers have found, I'll do my best to address as many as I can, as long as everyone takes a few things into account while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why VFC's Take is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



CVM: A comment from Lenny regarding Cel Sci Corp.:

Hi Vinny,

Some interesting chatter on the MB's that CVM may hit some 'volatility' over the next week or so, in order to shake out some 'weak hands' and take out the sell stops - what do you think?

Lenny

VFC's Take: Quite simply, if the stock drops, I'll be buying on the dips. It's my opinion that the best chance for the small investor to bank the most significant gains is to buy stocks when others are selling; this way, when the stock rebounds, then the small investor is realizing the same big percentage gains that are being had by the big boys. Remember, we're just trying to pick up the crumbs while the big boys eat the cake.

You have to very confident in your DD to stomach buying a stock while it is dropping because you have to be pretty confident that the stock will eventually rebound. Another option is to sell and try to buy back in lower. However, I am hesitant to play that game with a stock when big news could be pending because just as easily as the stock dropped, big news could send the stock quickly to the upside once again. Two examples of that scenario were AGEN in May and CSUH in just the past week; both of those stocks dropped fairly significantly before quickly changing course and ticking up.

With CVM - I'm confident enough in the company's potential to hold through the storm and continue adding shares on any dips - as has been my strategy for the better part of the last few years. I first invested in the company based on the potential of Multikine, but the recent swine flu hype - that turned out to be more than just hype - and the progression of the LEAPS platform added additional potential valueto the stock.

So, if the stock price dips, then VFC is buying. I actually enjoy a good 'tree shake', if for no other reason than that I enjoy buying opportunities. They are also good for getting rid of the investors with no stomach for volatility; that's a good thing because those investors that can't handle the volatility end up making a stock more volatile because they'll sell at the first sign of trouble.

That being said, I don't like it when the small investor gets 'shaken from the tree' on the basis of misleading, inaccurate or false information. I love opinions, as I'm an opinionated guy, but there's no reason to try and scare the small investor out of their shares by spreading BS, propaganda and rumor because, quite frankly, in VFC's House, I consider that to be unethical and classless.

If someone has an opposing opinion, then that's fine - but an opposing argument should be based on one's view and speculation of the facts, not on propaganda an altered reality of the truth.

I'll also say this regarding Cel Sci's LEAPS treatment for the swine flu: I don't make it a habit of questioning official PRs that are released by a company; if Cel Sci issues an official release that says that they are working with the FDA on a swine flu trial, then I am not going to question the validity of that PR.

For a publicly traded company to intentionally issue a false statement to the public is very illegal, if there is such a thing as VERY illegal. Most company executives don't like going to jail and if a company were to issue a false press release, especially one involving the FDA, then it wouldn't be too hard to prosecute that case - in my opinion, because the evidence is right there for the entire public - let alone the government regulatory agencies - to see.

Maybe LEAPS won't end up being as effective in treating the swine flu as is hoped, but I'm not going to question the validity of an official press release that says that LEAPS is being looked at by the FDA as a treatment for the swine flu.

'Nuff said on that.

In my opinion, CVM will survive the turmoil and eventually come out on top. The stock is a big winner already this year and I think that the next few quarters will show that the party is just getting started; and maybe I'm being too conservative with that time frame.

Hopefully this helps. Everyone should do their own DD and I don't blame anyone who sold into the spike to two dollars recently, but there's too much news pending for me to end up on the sidelines if it hits. Therefor, I'll add to my position if there are any significant dips moving forward.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



SPPI: A comment from Noah regarding Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.:

Hey VFC,
What's your opinion on SPPI?

Thanks,
Noah

VFC's Take: I apologize to many readers who have both emailed and commented on the board asking for my opinion on SPPI, I'm a little late getting to this one, but I'm doing my best to keep up as much as I can with the comments.

Here's the latest with Spectrum, as many already know:

In early September, when the stock was trading for nearly nine dollars, the FDA approved an expanded label use for the company's non-Hodgkins Lymphoma treatment, Zevalin. The stock price declined (in much the same way as BDSI did after receiving positive news this summer).

After raising nearly fifty million dollars in cash the stock price continued to decline until the FDA rejected Fusilev, Spectrum's colorectal cancer drug, at which point the stock took a nosedive to it's current levels in the mid $4 range.

I understand that many investors are looking at this stock as a possible rebound play - one that has been beaten down by recent bad news, but with the potential to pay off for those that may just be getting in now. Here's my opinion: while I do see the potential for a possible rebound, I'm not quite sure that right now is the time to buy.

Sales of Zevalin, which have been on the decline, and Fusilev, which is already approved for the treatment of bone cancer patients, do not necessarily justify the current market cap of two hundred million - in my opinion - especially when considering that Fusilev may need to undergo another trial in order to sway the FDA to possibly change course and approve the drug.

That being said, the company has Apaziquone in Phase III trials and various product candidates in early stages of development that add additional value to the company.

The recent turmoil with the FDA and the fact that Zevalin is not a blockbuster - even with the recent label expansion that now has the product considered a first line treatment - has me hesitant to buy in just yet.

Because of the fact that I think that there are some pretty good value buys out there right now with a more immediate potential for upside, I would like to see SPPI trade for under four dollars before I would consider it. Even if the stock starts to rebound from the current levels, I don't see a double in the works anytime soon.

Keep in mind that this is purely my own opinion and each investor should do their own DD.

Disclosure: No position.

Stock Watch Tuesday: VNDA, TTNP, CSUH

VNDA: Shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals are set to trade to the upside on Tuesday after news was released on Monday evening detailing a licensing agreement with Novartis for Fanapt that could be worth as much as $465 million. VNDA traded higher by 20% during the after hours trading period on Monday after the news hit.

A conference call is scheduled for Tuesday morning at 8:30 AM, directions for participating in the call are outlined in the original press release.

With the outcome of the Fanapt marketing arrangement now publicly known, shares of VNDA could embark on a new uptrend towards the twenty dollar level. Novartis is a huge player in the pharmaceutical market and it could only be assumed that the company will be able to maximize the sales potential of Fanapt.

Vanda, in addition to a $200 million plus up-front payment, will receive royalties on sales of Fanapt and also retains world wide marketing rights to the product.

Disclosure: No position.



TTNP: As always, I consider Titan pharmaceuticals the better 'Fanapt' play than Vanda. Titan is due to receive up to 10% in royalties of all net sales of Fanapt and that revenue stream just got a huge boost in value, in my opinion, since it has been made public that powerhouse Novartis will be the one doing the marketing and selling of the product.

It's also worth noting that Titan will incur no costs or expenses in order to maintain the revenue stream; essentially, it's 'free money' for the company.

Titan also has Probuphine in the late-stage pipeline. Probuphine is a Phase III product candidate to treat opioid addiction and is also being evaluated in Phase II trials for the treatment of chronic pain. Probuphine, for which Titan was just awarded a $7.6 million grant by the NIH for its development, uses Titan's ProNeura delivery technology - a delivery technology that holds additional value in itself.

Titan is still listed on the pink sheets, making it a no-no for many funds, firms and retail investors, but the stock should begin to move higher on this news and it is possible that a trip to a larger exchange may not be too far off in the future, in my opinion. I also don't think that it's out of the question to see Titan scooped up by a larger pharma - maybe even Novartis who now is due to pay Titan a 10% royalty on sales of Fanapt.

For long time shareholders of Titan, the patience is starting to pay off.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.



CSUH.ob: After a run to forty five cents on Monday, shares of Celsius Holdings are worth watching on Tuesday. The company is due to announce new, nation-wide distribution in the coming weeks, according to CEO Steve Haley - a result of both an effective marketing campaign and the signing of CROSSMARK.

By second or third quarter of 2010, in my opinion based on the latest CEO interview, Celsius could be in the middle of a huge growth spurt as the pending announcements will be in full action by that time.

The wild card with Celsius, as always, is the 'celebrity factor.' If a big-time celebrity, or celebrities, were to endorse the product or just be seen drinking it in public, then the product could fly off the shells over night.

Regardless, Celsius is on the verge of huge distribution which should translate into much bigger sales number which should translate into a higher share price - based on the future potential of the product that is coming to light.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Readers Respond: VFC's Charities, The Gift of Giving

A comment from Carson:

Your belief is that GNBT will be a 10-bagger in 2011. What stocks do you believe will be 10-baggers for 2010? Are there any stocks in this list that you would buy first to then roll to others?
As a side note, are there any charities you support that readers can make contributions to as an indirect way of thanking you? You help us, we can therefore help others from our stock earnings...just a thought; one hand washes the other.

Carson Wade

VFC's Take: I'll get back to you on my picks for 2010 - that subject has been on my mind for some time, but there is so much news due in quarter four of this year that I haven't been looking as far forward as I'd like.

As for your side note, you provide evidence that amidst the economic turmoil and global tragedy - there is still humanity left in this world. I think it is a noble idea to share stock winnings with charities, especially with charities that we know are making a difference.

It's easy to get wrapped up in the material side of life, but it is also important to always keep in mind that many out there - all over the world - are not as lucky as we are. Just in the past couple of years I've had a friend lose his brother and father to head cancer and a workmate lost his son to the same. We've all got our stories of tragedy, and we should all remember them to keep us grounded.

Cancer Care: Since cancer is such a big part of life and tragedy, I always take the chance to donate a few bucks towards 'The Cause'. For cancer research donations, I donate every time someone I know is participating in a 'run for the cure' type thing. I'm usually pretty good at posting those events on my VFC's House blog, but I will also post those here from here on out.

Cancer Care is more geared towards helping those that have cancer, to include the families and friends of the patient. They offer counseling and support groups to patients and/or family members and even have a co-pay plan to try and get each and every patient the best treatment available.

To help those with cancer, Cancer Care is my charity of choice.

Children International: I've sponsored children all around through this organization for the better part of twenty years and I've been completely satisfied that CI is improving the lives of children in poverty-stricken areas around the world.

I enjoy the letters and pictures that I receive from the children and it's humbling to know that twenty two dollars a month from me can make such a difference in a child's life.

Make a Wish Foundation: This is probably one of the most famous charities out there and there's nothing like knowing that a little bit of your money is going to make a sick child's day brighter.

Children are the truly innocent ones in this world and if Make a Wish can turn a sick child's wish into reality, then they're worth getting a few bucks from me.

Again, thanks for the interest in charities. Even when things are rough and times are tough, it is very, very important to remember that there is always somebody out there that is a lot worse off than you are.

Also, the greatest gift that you can give is sharing your experiences and knowledge with others. We all have something to learn from each other, but you can't learn anything if your mind is closed. In fact, it's the ones that think that they have it all figured out - and the ones that let ego dominate their livelyhood - that tend to screw it up for everybody else.

Don't mistake this as VFC preaching, I'm just sayin'...........

Disclosure: VFC loves charities.

Novartis Agrees to Market Vanda's Fanapt, but Where Does That Leave Titan Pharmaceuticals?

The much anticipated news of who would market Vanda Pharmaceuticals' recently FDA approved schizophrenia drug, Fanapt, hit the wires on Monday evening, and it was announced that Novartis would purchase the US and Canadian rights to Fanapt for an up-front payment of $200 million. According to the press release, Vanda could rake in an additional $265 million if certain developmental and commercial milestones are met. Vanda will also receive a royalty on sales of the product, although the royalty percentage has not yet been made public.

The news of who would take Fanapt to market has been long-awaited by anxious investors and although Monday's announcement made a murky situation clearer, there is still more of the story to be told, in my opinion - mainly involving the fate Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP.pk).

It has long been my opinion that an investment in Titan Pharmaceuticals was better than one in Vanda because of the greater upside potential of TTNP. My opinion has not changed and it would not surprise me to see an additional release detailing a buyout of Titan by Novartis - now that we know Novartis is, in fact, the mystery player.

Due to a previously existing licensing agreement with Vanda, Titan is due to receive 8% in royalties on net sales of Fanapt up to the $200 million mark and will receive 10% on all sales thereafter. With the new Vanda deal in place, Novartis is now on the hook to pay Titan those royalties and it may be deemed more financially beneficial for the company to simply purchase Titan.

That move on the part of Novartis would possibly save the company from having to pay out hundreds of millions of dollars over the years and it would also give them Probuphine, Titan's Phase III drug to treat opioid addiction (also in Phase II trials for the treatment of chronic pain), and Titan's ProNeura drug delivery system. Titan, unlike Vanda, has the more vibrant pipeline, when compared to that of Vanda's, and it is possible that Novartis would rather make a buyout play for Titan based on that fact.

Of course, this is just purely my own speculation.

Of note, Titan is also the recent recipient of a grant from the NIH; the grant being awarded to advance Probuphine through the pipeline. The grant not only alleviates the need for Titan to seek outside funding for Probuphine, but it validates the potential of both Probuphine and the ProNeura delivery system.

Whether Titan Pharmaceuticals ends up being purchased by Novartis or not, Monday's announcement is huge news for a company that was on the brink of disaster only six months ago. Now, things have never looked brighter.

Novartis is a huge player in the pharmaceutical market and there is little doubt that the company - with all of its weight and infrastructure - will be able to maximize the sales potential of Fanapt in quick time. Since the schizophrenia market in the United States is a $14 billion market, that bodes extremely well for Titan's bottom line.

Additionally, with the rate of frequency that schizophrenia patients switch medications, Novartis has a chance to immediately steal significant market share upon commercial launch of Fanapt, which is now due to occur early next year.

For Vanda, that company will now have the funds to advance Fanapt to market internationally and possibly try to also advance through the pipeline Tasimelteon, the company's clinical stage drug to treat sleep disorders.

Also mentioned in Monday's press release was the development of an injectible form of Fanapt, although that product is at least a year out.

Shares of Vanda traded to the upside by 20% during after hours trading on Monday, but the bigger gains, in my opinion, will eventually be had by Titan. Titan's current market cap of roughly $90 million no longer does justice to the potential of Probuphine or ProNeura when also considering the sales potential of Fanapt while being marketed by powerhouse Novartis.

It has been a volatile market of late - especially in the bio-pharmaceutical sector - so it would not surprise me if TTNP traded with volatility for the remainder of the week. That being said, I think the long run is going to prove that any purchase of shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals for under three dollars was a dang good one.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP, no position VNDA.

Readers Respond: GNBT, BDSI, MCET

In response to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments asking for 'VFC's Take' on numerous stocks that readers have found, I'll do my best to address as many as I can, as long as everyone takes a few things into account while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why VFC's Take is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



GNBT: An anonymous comment regarding Generex's RapidMist delivery system and BioDelivery's BEMA technology:

Hoe does GNBT's delivery system in the inner cheek differ from BDSI? Isn't BDSI's proprietary?

Thanks.

VFC's Take: The main difference between the two methods of drug delivery are that BioDelivery uses a small patch that is placed inside the cheek and the drug is absorbed from that patch.

Generex's RapidMist is a spray that 'sprays' the inside lining of the cheek and the drug is then absorbed from the spray.

Hope this helps.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI and GNBT.



MCET.ob: A comment from Lenny regarding MultiCell Technologies, Inc.:

Hi Vinny,

Hope you are have having a nice weekend. We are in NYC this weekend, enjoying the Columbus Day and Canadian Thanksgiving holiday.

Do you see any potential for MCET? I have seen some chatter on the MB's and had a look at the company, the stock price (less than .03) is interesting but do the products have a future?

Let us know when you have a chance,

Tks!

Lenny

VFC's Take: It's no secret that I like to take chances with what I call 'night on the town' stocks. For the new readers, those are stocks that you can forgo a night on the town and spend the money that you would've spent on booze and the wifey's Cosmos on buying a handful of shares on a very low priced, high-risk/high-reward stock with potential.

If the investment turns out to be a bust, then you've missed a night on the town, but saved a hangover. If it does work out (see: CSUH, TTNP, BVTI, MSBT, etc.) then the percentage gains are usually huge.

It's my opinion that speculating in these highly speculative stocks should take the place of long-term minded investing, but they could be handy for paying for last minute vacations and/or new shoes for the lady.

I think that MCET is worth a little bit of that speculative high risk/ high reward 'night on the town' money and I had even picked up a few shares myself recently.

Unlike some others, I do have more concerns with this stock than I do with others like it; for instance, the company is very vague when discussing the advancement of the pipeline both on the company website and in the quarterly reports.

The market potential is big with potential products to treat multiple sclerosis (MS), type-1 diabetes, and infectious disease, but one can only assume that these products are far from being anywhere near reaching the market.

An additional worry is the dire need for continued financing.

On the positive note (here is where the potential comes in), Multicell was recently granted a patent for "immortalized human liver cell lines" and has some existing partnerships with big(ger) pharma, including one with Pfizer (PFI).

I wouldn't go crazy with MCET, and remain realistically grounded in your expectations. My opinion at first glance with this company is that they are more interested in licensing agreements and/or sales to keep the lights on than they are in seeing a product to market.

However, the method of payment by choice for some of the directors, according to the recent financial reports, is with company stock, so it could be in the interests of everyone involved to run the price once in a while, whether the run is warranted or not - in my opinion.

Consider MCET a 'night on the town' stock if your DD inclines you to buy. If it doesn't work out, then you saved a day on the couch with a hangover. If it does, then 'Hello, Espana!'

Disclosure: VFC is long MCET.

Stocks on the Move: CSUH, GNBT, KERX

CSUH.ob: Shares of Celsius Holdings (CSUH) touched forty five cents during early trading on Monday after an Investment Nation interview with the company's CEO Steve Haley last Thursday highlighted some important developments for the company.

Most notable of those developments, in my opinion, is the increase in distribution demand as a result of both the recent nationwide advertising campaign and the CROSSMARK signing.

While CEO Steve Haley indicated that some major distribution deals could be announced within the next month or two, my impression is that early 2010 is when distribution is going make a very significant move. As I've emphasized many times before, I thought the CROSSMARK deal was huge and the pending boom in distribution is a direct result of that deal, as well as the advertising blitz that has more retailers looking at the product.

The boom in distribution and awareness should also positively impact the stock price and the small investor wants to be in before the big moves take place. CSUH is already a big mover this year, but things could move quick if the sales numbers start lining up with the increase in distribution.

As always, do your own DD and remember, an investment in CSUH is not an investment in next week. You want to look further down the road and weigh up the potential for growth with this company.

In my opinion, any buy for the current prices is going to end up looking like a steal later on down the road.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



GNBT: Shares of Generex touched just above seventy six cents on above average volume on Monday morning after a New York Times article over the weekend highlighted the company's Ora-Lyn insulin spray product that uses the inside lining of the cheek to deliver insulin to the bloodstream. Mannkind's(MNKD) insulin spray was also highlighted, although it was noted in the article that MNKD's spray utilizes the lungs to deliver the insulin, which could possibly raise more long term concerns than Ora-Lyn. The NYT article, which at first glance appeared to favor the Mannkind product, actually looked preferential to Ora-Lyn, in my opinion, when it was all said and done.

The article also undoubtedly drew new interest to the company and its stock, judging by the early Monday price action, but I still think that it might be a little bit too early to rule out another pullback for the short term. Possible news of an FDA approval for the product most likely will not come until late 2010.

It is my opinion that a diabetes insulin spray that has no effect the lungs, such as Ora-Lyn, is going to be huge - if approved. Oral-Lyn could also become a global force as the product is being tested in ongoing Phase III trials around the globe as well as here in the United States. Additionally, the product is currently approved for sale in both Ecuador and India, according to the company's website.

While there are inherent risks with every investment, I like the risk/reward profile of GNBT because if Ora-Lyn is eventually approved in the United States and the company can bring additional drugs to market utilizing RapidMist, then GNBT is going to turn into a real winner of a stock, in my opinion.

That being said, there is the hurdle of the FDA and then gaining the acceptance of the medical community. As for the patients, I cannot speak for any of them but I would consider an 'insulin inhaler' preferable to the inconveniences of an insulin shot, but that subject is addressed in the NYT article and shots do not seem to be a concern for many diabetics.

For the time being, my strategy is to buy the dips with GNBT.
Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.



KERX: Shares of KERX traded up over five percent during early trading on Monday on no news and ho-hum volume.

After the recent positive news regarding Zerenex and Perifisone that spiked the stock to over three dollars, it looks like KERX has settled in a trading range of roughly $2.25-$2.75 - the lower end of that range being a good place to accumulate, in my opinion.

Any dips below $2 would have me picking up the accumulation on a larger scale. I don't foresee such a pullback based on bad news being released from the company, I just haven't ruled out another possible general market pullback to about the DOW 8500 range. A pull back like that would have some of our favorite stocks on sale once again and I think that it is worth keeping a few bucks on the sidelines just in case.

However, I'm not fully banking on a pullback so I will be accumulating shares of KERX on the dips.

Disclosure: VFC is long KERX.

Dendreon (DNDN) Rises as New Board Members are Appointed

DNDN: Shares of Dendreon (DNDN) traded higher by nearly eight percent during early trading on Monday after it became apparent that the company had recently appointed two new members to its Board of Directors, one being the Chief Executive of Genentech, Ian Clark and the other being Pedro Granadillo, a one time executive for Eli Lilly & Co.

The appointment of Clark has fueled speculation that a partnership deal (with Roche) is imminent since Genentech is wholly-owned by Roche after a recent merger between the two companies. The DNDN stock price has now approached the thirty dollar level, most likely the result of speculation after the board appointments - in my opinion.

Dendreon, for those not familiar with the situation, is looking to have the company's prostate cancer immunotherapy treatment (Provenge) approved by the US FDA sometime in 2010. Barring any unforeseen delays, the FDA decision should come at sometime in the first half of next year since Dendreon intends to file for Provenge approval in November of this year, according to previously released reports. In a recent Phase III trial, Provenge proved to extend the survivability of patients who received the treatment.

While a US partner is a possibility, Dendreon has previously indicated that they would rather 'go it alone' in marketing Provenge in the United States, but would be open to a 'Rest of World' partner - that's where Roche would come into play.

If Provenge is approved by the FDA next year, then I would expect a pretty significant run in the 'cancer immunotherapy' sector. Stocks such as AGEN and ONTY, both also working on their own immunotherapy treatments, would be sure to benefit from such a run - among many others.

Provenge, if approved, would also become the first approved cancer vaccine in the United States. Antigenics' Oncophage claims the title as the the world's first approved cancer vaccine after the Russian medical authorities approved the vaccine for the treatment of kidney cancer in April of last year.

The Provenge story has been long and marred with protest, controversy and conflicts of interests - namely by two Doctors who served on the FDA's advisory committee for Provenge in 2007 - but it looks like Dendreon and and the thousands of prostate cancer patients who have lobbied for the vaccine's approval will finally have their day in the sun.

As always, it's important to keep in mind that the FDA is a fickle and unpredictable bunch, so only time will tell what the final outcome for Provenge will be.

That being said, things have never looked brighter for the company after bringing two big time heavyweights on board to help bring Provenge to market.

Disclosure: No position in DNDN, long AGEN and ONTY.

Readers Respond: GNBT

GNBT: A couple of comments regarding Generex:

Mannkind (MNKD) and Generex Biotechnology (GNBT) were mentioned in today's New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/business/11novel.html

Best,
Shiela Wilson

Thanks so much for the response! I am interested in your crystal ball for 2011. I think GNBT can match or exceed their competitor Mannkind's (MNKD) current market capitalization of $686.81 million (figures per Yahoo Finance) which would give GNBT a price of $3.78 post Phase III, but pre-approval (during 2010). This is about 5 1/2 times the current price. Since GNBT product, unlike MNKD's, doesn't go into the lungs with the concomitant risks, I feel GNBT's market capitalization should set the bar, not the other way around. I am not familiar with NVD. How does their system differ from GNBT and MNKD, and which do you feel is superior? Do you agree with my thesis on GNBT's pre-approval price? ...and your thoughts on 2011?

Gillmore Viltati

VFC's Take: The New York Times article was a good one. My initial thoughts were that the article was too favorable to Mannkind's delivery system that utilizes the lungs, but it turns out that the Generex cheek-lining system gets the better press, in my opinion, and that's the way it should be. There's a lot to be said for a spray method of delivery that does not use the longs.

It's possible that those investors that don't have A-D-D and have a memory span of more than a day will keep this article in mind for the resumption of trading on Tuesday and maybe buy a few shares of GNBT.

Thanks for sharing the link, Shiela, it's good press.

In response to Gillmore, I do think that the GNBT market cap will eventually surpass that of MNKD's, but I don't believe that time will be until either just before the FDA is due to issue a decision or just after, depending on the market. I say "depending on the market" because it looks like biotech stocks are starting to trade up before an FDA decision and down after the decision is announced, whether that decision is positive or not.

It's my opinion that a diabetes insulin spray that does not effect the lungs is going to be a huge product, if approved in the US. If Oral-Lyn does receive a US approval, after already having been approved in various countries around the globe, then I think that GNBT will be a ten-bagger from its current prices sometime in 2011.

The development of additional products utilizing RapidMist could grow the company even more.

As for Novadel, that company also has an oral spray drug delivery system that utilizes the inner lining of the mouth vice the lungs, but even with two FDA approved products that company and its stock have gone nowhere. I sold my shares in that company a while ago and moved on; meanwhile the stock still hasn't moved.

That being said, an oral insulin is a whole lot bigger than anything NVD has and I get the feeling that Generex, with a growing global presence, will be able to market their product more efficiently. All just my opinion.

Keep in mind, however, that I also feel that in order for Oral-Lyn to achieve the success that I call deem as possible in this response, it needs to be accepted by the medical field and also by the patients involved. It's my opinion that if the Oral-Lyn Phase III results are positive, then the medical field should become believers. As for the patients, I think that taking a spray in the mouth has to be preferable to the inconveniences of a shot - but I can't speak for the patients themselves, I can only speculate.

I'll add shares of GNBT on any dips.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT and has no interestes in MNKD or NVD.

Readers Respond: BDSI Insider Selling

BDSI: A comment from Bluesbuff regarding the insider sales at BioDelivery Sciences earlier this year:

Vinnie,

When I charted BDSI I noticed massive Insider Sales by "beneficial owners" and directors in June and July, when the stock was in the range of $6 to $7. Isn't that a red flag to be concerned about?

Bluesbuff

VFC's Take: I've commented on these insider buys quite a bit since the summer and I maintain my position that these sells are a non-factor for the stock. Click HERE to read my reasoning, as I dedicated an entire post to these sales on June 23rd.

The insider sales occurred before the FDA approved Onsolis, but the FDA's decision was due to have been announced before those sales took place. My own speculation has me believing that insiders were awaiting results before selling, but the FDA delay made that impossible.

When discussing insider sells, I always try to remind people that insiders are people, too - they have events that come up in their lives that may require additional free capital just like you and me. Whether it's a medical emergency, a tax bill, a new boat, a car or a vacation, these guys and girls need to free up some money sometimes, too. I usually have no problem with insiders that take some money off the table after a nice run in their stock because I would do the same thing.

You never know when airplanes will hit towers or when a sub prime mess is going to send the markets tumbling. Insiders have the right to protect their investments just like anyone else. This is where an investor's own DD comes into play - if you're comfortable in your DD, it's easier to speculate as to why the insiders sold. Sometimes the insider selling is a vote of no-confidence, but I don't believe that is the case with BDSI for the reasons I'm outlining here.

The 'beneficial owners' that you mention are actually hedge funds who had a very rocky relationship with BioDelivery management, according to published reports. When the price spiked during the summer, those hedge funds took advantage and bailed out on a relationship that grew sour. Click HERE for a decent synopsis of the rocky relationship that ended in divorce. The article is a couple of years old, but it'll give you an idea of what was going on behind the scenes.

Here's what is important - Onsolis is approved and the BEMA technology held by BioDelivery Sciences is now validated and real. There are additional products in the pipeline, as the BDSI CEO recently discussed with the TheStreet.com, and things have never looked so bright for the company.

I can't speak for the hedge funds or the insiders that sold, I can only speculate; but to be honest - I'm glad that they sold because investors were able to add shares of BDSI for a price that I consider to be extremely discounted.

Hope this clears up my position on how I feel about the insider sales.

I've also discussed the sales in the following articles:

VFC's Take on the BDSI Insider Sales
Proceed Cautiously With BDSI
Another Week and Still No News
BioDelivery Receives Approval for Onsolis

Readers Respond: IVOB, GNBT

In response to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments asking for 'VFC's Take' on numerous stocks that readers have found, I'll do my best to address as many as I can, as long as everyone takes a few things into account while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why VFC's Take is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.



IVOB.ob: An email from Noah regarding INVO Bioscience, Inc.:

Hi VFC!

What are your thoughts on IVOB? Do you think they're a good buy at this price?

Thanks and God bless!
-Noah

VFC's Take: I commented on IVOB on August sixth and after reviewing my write-up from that day, I am inclined to stick with my opinion that IVOB has potential.

Shares of the IVOB stock received a 20% bump on Friday after the company issued a PR that highlighted the [copied from the PR] birth of the first baby conceived by the INVO procedure and INVOcell device.

Although the company and its product is gaining a foothold in the international market, it would be worth watching the FDA situation. The company is expecting a decision in on its 501k marketing clearance submission "by 2010" (according to the most recent quarterly report) and a positive decision there could significantly impact the stock price - if you're in before hand.

Watch the trading on Tuesday, it's possible that the stock could retreat after the latest run and that would offer a better buying opportunity - but if INVOcell is for real, any buy in the thirty cent range should prove to be a good buy, in my opinion.

Disclosure: No position.



GNBT: A follow-up comment from Gillmore regarding Generex:

What targets are you looking for in early 2010 and longer term into 2011 for GNBT...and the rational? (To me, the reasoning is more important than hitting a precise target. Would you agree?)

Wishing you much success,

Gillmore Viltati

VFC's Take: Regarding Generex, the focus of my interest and enthusiasm in the company is the RapidMist delivery system. RapidMist allows a drug to be administered to a patient through the inner lining of the cheek after a spray while the lungs are not involved. Regardless of any short term gains, it's my opinion that the longer term could prove to be highly profitable for investors based on the potential of RapidMist.

That being said, the biggest mover of the stock should be the advancement of Oral-Lyn, the company's diabetes insulin spray that utilizes the RapidMist method of delivery. Once Phase III results are finalized and the product gets put before the FDA for a decision, the stock could move on speculation.

It is my opinion, however, that the stock could spike to over a dollar based on speculation alone, as it did after the news that the FDA approved Oral Lyn under its Investigational New Drug program.

Since the company has ongoing Phase III trials for Oral Lyn around the globe, when things start to move for the product, they can move quick - and I wanted a foothold in the stock before that happened.

In short - I see risk in GNBT, but I think that the company is onto something with RapidMist; if management can maximize the value of that delivery system then I think that GNBT is going to be a global player and a winner of a stock.

On the other hand, Novadel (NVD) hasn't had much luck advancing their spry-delivery products, even with two FDA approvals, so I do have a bit of a bad taste in my mouth with spray delivery systems.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

VFC's Take on the Celsius (CSUH) CEO's Interview With Investment Nation

The CEO of Celsius Holdings, Steve Haley, joined a moderator from Investment Nation on Thursday evening for a live interview to discuss the latest and greatest regarding Celsius the company and Celsius the product.

For those who may be new to the product, Celsius lays claim to being the world's first calorie burning beverage. The product comes in seven flavors; five 'sparkling' (carbonated) - Cola, Orange, Lemon-Line, Ginger Ale and Wild Berry - and two non-carbonated Green Tea flavors - Raspberry Acai and Peach Mango.

After trading as low as .025 cents within the past year, the Celsius stock rebounded nicely this summer and traded as high as forty cents before settling into its current range of between thirty five and fort five cents.

Sales for the last reported quarter were $1.2 million but could be expected to grow significantly higher after the launch of a nationwide advertising campaign which includes both print and cable television ads. Of note, Celsius also recently signed with CROSSMARK, which indicates that another significant spurt in distribution growth could be just around the corner.

It's no secret that I've been a fan of both the company and the product for some time and I heard nothing in Thursday's interview that would convince me to change my position now.

I won't rehash the entire interview here - I'll just hit on some key points, but the full interview is still available for listen on Investment Nation's home page for those that may have missed it.

The highlights:

- Profitability will not come this year. Free capital is used to grow the company right now through a vigorous marketing campaign intended to both grow consumer awareness, sales and to keep Celsius as the top player of the 'calorie-burning' sector.

Many investors - generally those that lack disciplined patience - want to see their stock rise immediately and wonder what is wrong if the stock hovers in a trading zone for too long.

Longer term investors want to see growth - and want to see capital put towards that growth in order to realize even more growth. That is the strategy being employed by Celsius and quarter-over-quarter growth thus far (over the past few quarters) has been pretty significant; significant enough to have me inclined to believe that - with the help of the new marketing campaign - the next few quarters are going to be even better.

There is risk with this strategy - the risk being that the marketing campaign doesn't work and it'll turn out to be money spent for naught - but indications are that this is not the case and that there is some 'buzz' being developed around this product. It takes money to make money and Celsius is spending now in order to make more down the road. That's what an emerging growth company should do and that's what this one is doing, in my opinion.

It does no good to have a profitable quarter in the near future, as Steve mentioned was possible, if it came at a cost of growing the company. Celsius is ahead of the curve right now with the calorie-burners and now is the time to seize the market share, not later. As Mr. Haley said, from this point on, when competitors put out a 'calorie burner', essentially what they're doing is putting out their version of Celsius.

As a long term investor - I say grow the company.

- When questioned about a celebrity endorsement, Mr. Haley stated that he's held that "close to the vest" in the past and he would continue to do so. My own speculation regarding his reaction has me believing that we are not going to see and 'endorsement' per say, but something fairly significant regarding a celebrity may be in the works - in my opinion.

Only time will tell, but I don't see a big celebrity endorsement as necessary to rapid growth and awareness as I have before.

- The company will not need to raise additional capital this year. In my opinion based on Steve's reaction, the rate of growth over the next quarter or so will dictate when/if additional capital will be needed next year.

- When asked about why the CFO recently sold shares, Mr. Haley first emphasized that directors of the company have a very thin window with which to sell shares. That being said, the CFO sold for personal reasons in that window. While the detractors will play the CFO sale as a negative - it's a non-factor in my book. If there was a mass exodus from insiders, then yes, that's bad. One guy selling a few shares for personal reasons for HUGE gains shouldn't scare investors away; but if it does, those investors should never have been in the stock in the first place.

For serious investors wondering what personal reasons could be, here's a few possibilities: tax payment, medical issue, vacation, new boat, new car, big night out at Scores, send the wife to Madrid - the list is endless.

Point being: the CFO selling, in this case, is a non-issue. When Steve and Mrs. Haley start cashing out for below a buck, then come and talk to me; for now, I hope Jan is on a beach in Spain with Tinto con Limon in one hand and a cuban cigar in the other.

- Big distribution is on the way. It wasn't the comments that Steve made about new distribution being announced within the next month or so that peaked my interest, it was his statement that, and I paraphrase, Celsius will be in just about every large retailer that we can name, possibly by the end of March 2010.

All I have to say about that as a long term investor is, "Oh, baby, if that's even close to being the case." It will come as no surprise, however, since CROSSMARK is no slouch of a company and big things were to be expected the second that Celsius signed with them.

I'll be keeping my eyes on the PR wires for the new distribution.

- Another worthy, but not ground breaking, note was the mention of the Army and Air Force Exchange Service (AAFES) and Navy Exchange (NEX); distribution to those outlets will not be forthcoming this year, but possibly next.

In my opinion, Celsius has never been in a position primed for growth as it is right now. 2010 is make or break year for Celsius. As Mr. Haley said during this interview, it is in the best interests of the company to remain atop the list of 'calorie-burners.' That's where the money is made - at the top.

Competition for Celsius is not another energy drink, but another 'calorie burner'; and right now there's few of those on the market.

Understand that there is inherent risk in any investment and CSUH is no different. Do your DD and base your investments on your own research and comfort level.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Briefs: BDSI, ACTC, ONTY

BDSI: Shares of BioDelivery Sciences headed into the long Columbus Day weekend on an up note after trading over 5% higher on Friday, closing the week at $5-plus. With Onsolis due to launch commercially next week, BDSI's days of trading for below five dollars could be numbered. Investors have thought that before, but it's starting to look like those that held through the post-FDA-approval drop and ensuing volatility could start seeing a reward for their patience. As long as the stock is still trading in the five dollar range, however, I'll be accumulating with a long term outlook (I recently added BDSI to my IRA portfolio).

With the Onsolis approval in the rear view mirror, BioDelivery can concentrate on advancing the pipeline, leaving partner Meda to concentrate on the sales of Onsolis; sales of which BioDelivery will rake in double digit royalties.

Company CEO Mark Sirgo, in a video interview with TheStreet.com posted on Friday, discussed the future potential of the company and the BEMA technology. While mentioning that the Onsolis approval has validated the BEMA technology - therefor making future FDA approvals for products using BEMA easier - Mr. Sirgo also stated that Phase II results for the company's Buprenorphine product (also utilizing BEMA) will be released in the fourth quarter of this year. This product is intended to treat "acute and chronic" pain, contrary to Onsolis which treats only breakthrough pain in cancer treatments.

Nothing has changed with my outlook of BioDelivery Sciences. The only thing that may change is the (in my opinion) discounted price for which we've been able to buy the stock.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.



ACTC.ob: Shares of Advanced Cell Technology began trading on the OTCBB this week after the company became up-to-date on its financial statements. The move is a step up from the pink sheets for the company, as the updated financial statements add an additional air of validity to ACTC and may attract a new group of investors that wouldn't otherwise touch a pink sheet stock.

I'm still an accumulator of ACTC - especially while the stock is trading for just over ten cents - and I have a very long term outlook for the stock. The most advanced product in the Advanced Cell pipeline is Myoblast, a treatment for heart failure that has successfully completed Phase I trials and is awaiting the commencement of Phase II.

I originally stumbled across ACTC while looking for an alternative to Geron (GERN) earlier this year, as I didn't like the fact that the post-run GERN was trading for a market cap of nearly three quarters of a billion dollars when the company had nothing past Phase II trials to offer. I understand the potential of GERN's products, but if the company were to hit a bump in the road, that market cap left a whole lot of room to fall.

Advanced Cell should be considered a high risk/high reward play - one that I would consider a 'night on the town' stock - that could pay off a ways down the road.

Disclosure: VFC is long ACTC.



ONTY: As shares of Oncothyreon (ONTY) hit the sub five dollar mark once again last week, I picked up a few more shares for what I consider to be a pretty good price.

For those that may be new to the stock, Oncothyreon's Stimuvax, a cancer immunotherapy treatment, is currently being evaluated in a Phase III non-small cell lung cancer trial. Copied from the company's website: "Stimuvax is a therapeutic vaccine designed to stimulate an individual's immune system to recognize cancer cells and control the growth and spread of cancers in order to increase the survival of cancer patients."

Stimuvax is partnered with Merck KGaA and also has a pipeline of cancer treatments using 'small molecules.'

As I've mentioned before, if Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge receives FDA approval - a scenario which I consider likely - then i would expect a run in the 'cancer immunotherapy' sector. ONTY would sure to be a part of that run.

The stock has traded as high as trip sevens ($7.77) this year, and every time it dips below five bucks I pick up a few shares.

Disclosure: VFC is long ONTY.

Readers Respond: BMSN, ENTB, GNBT; Strategies for Buying Into a Stock

A comment from Alejandro regarding Bio-Matrix Scientific Group, Inc and Entest BioMedical, Inc:

Hi VFC
although when this is not a forum, is the place that more help me, and in which I can trust.
A dumb question here, although is not required a whole post to be answered, if any reader here could help me to understand It, I will be very thankful.
I don´t get the concept of "Wholly Owned subsidiary".
For example in the case of Entest BioMedical Inc (ENTB). is a wholly-owned subsidiary of BMSN, what I don´t understand is if ENTB sell a patent, will BMSN benefit when ENTB sell it? (the value of BMSN shares would rise in that case?). Is a relevant issue to take in consideration at the time of evaluating a company to invest? would you buy shares of the parent or the subsidiary?
Thanks in advance to everybody.


VFC's Take:

Alejandro,

There's no dumb questions, trust me. I appreciate you feeling comfortable enough to come here with your questions. I put this into a post because if you have this question, then there are most certainly others out there that have the same question.

A wholly owned subsidiary means that the parent company owns 100% of the subsidiary. Therefor, if the subsidiary profits then so does the parent.

One example from the stocks that I discuss here is Medasorb (MSBT.ob). Shares of that company have been on the rise because of the potential of Cytosorb - a product that in fact belongs to Medasorb's wholly owned subsidiary of Cytosorbents. Different to your situation, however, is that Cytosorbents does not trade publicly - only the parent Medasorb does.

As for which one to buy- the parent or the subsidiary - I usually purchase shares of whichever looks to me to be a better buy. In the case of your case of your two stocks, I think that they have about the same risk/reward profile with ENTB being the more volatile of the two. If I had to pick, I'd probably go with BMSN because, as the parent company, it will benefit from any ENTB successes while also benefiting from any income drawn on the labs and storage facilities that look to be the responsibility Bio-Matrix.

Just my opinion.

Thanks for the comment.

Disclosure: Long BMSN, no position ENTB.



GNBT: A comment from Gillmore regarding Generex Corporation:

I saw your response to a reader inquiring about support and resistance levels for GNBT. Can you add some color on your strategy of buying half to get in and then averaging down? Basically, when do you add to your position...percentage drop, price drop, or gut feel? How would you play GNBT in this regard? Also, just as important, when and how would you sell GNBT?? Same method???

Gillmore

VFC's Take: Sorry it's taking me a little longer to respond to some of these emails; I know that you had asked me about GNBT a while ago, too. If I don't respond in a timely fashion - or even not at all - please keep in mind that this site is a hobby, not a job, and time is limited!

I'll start by addressing my strategy of buying in with about half of what I want to buy in with. First of all, if I'm looking at a stock that I don't believe is going to swing to the upside anytime very soon, then I usually just put it on the watch list for a while so I can get a feel for its trading patterns. Once I have a good feel for the price of the dips, I'll start accumulating.

If I'm looking at a stock that has already moved somewhat - either up or down - and I think that another move up (based on news or manipulation) is possible, then I'll buy in to get a foothold in the stock so that I don't miss a move to the upside if one does occur. In that case, I'll put my buy order in and if I want to buy 5,000 shares, for instance, I'll temper my order and only buy 2,500; that would be my foothold and I would then start accumulating the rest on any dips. In my opinion, that protects me both ways - it keeps me in the game if the stock runs and allows me the free cash to buy on any dip.

The reason why I like that strategy is because if I go all in right away and then the stock dips, I'm forced to buy in with additional capitol that may make my portfolio over-leveraged in one stock. I like to keep my portfolio even-keeled and level-headed.

As for how much of a dip is significant enough for me to buy, it depends on how long I've watched the stock. If I have a good idea that the stock dips 20% every now and then, I'll sit around and wait for that dip. Otherwise, it really depends on the stock. A 25% dip is a whole lot different for a stock trading at five cents than it is for one trading at $1.25, so I would play each one differently. Part of my entry strategy is coming up with a 'buy price' for each of my stocks.

For instance, my buy price for AGEN is $2.00. Earlier in the year my buy price for that stock was seventy cents or less. To me, it just depends on how the stock is trading and whether or not I feel it is news, manipulation or a lack of attention that is driving the stock lower.

With GNBT, my buy price right now is sixty cents. I probably won't add shares unless it hits below that mark. That's just based on my comfort level for buying and I think stock investing - especially for the small investor - has a lot to do with one's own personal comfort level.

As for whent to sell? Again, its comfort level. The important thing to remember is that there is nothing wrong with realizing profits. Even if you sell and the stock still rises, you've won if you sold for a profit. I usually stagger my sells on the way up but it depends on which stock it is as to how much/how often I sell.

Technicals and charts - I'll pay attention to those at times, but - and call me a pessimist - I know that a lot of people trade off of those, but I think that they can be manipulated.

Simply put - if the big boys want a stock to move up, then that baby is going up regardless of what the charts say and if the big boys want to drop a stock, then they are going to drop it. My goal is to be in a stock before they spike it and to have sold at least some profit before they drop again.

Thanks for the comment, I hope this answers your question as to my thought process behind buying/selling.

Readers Respond: How Will ObamaCare Effect Biotech?

A comment from Pete:

Thanks on SPNGE.ob, when do you expect it to be re-listed? possibly next year?

Also, btw, on BIEL, my broker, Scottrade, can't trade it because it's got some kind of DTC problems in selling. What's up with that? Tell me if I need to get a different broker...

Lastly, how do you think Obama's healthcare plan(s) will affect our biotech stocks - positively or negatively or no effect or no comment?

Thanks again in advance. Hopefully, all readers can profit from your words of wisdom...

-Pete

VFC's Take: Regarding BIEL, I use Zecco to trade the stock. I haven't tried to sell any shares yet, but I bought as recently as a week or two ago. Not sure what's up with Scottrade, maybe another reader can help you out with that one.

Regarding SPNGE, when you say re-listed, do you mean re-listed on a major exchange? The recent PR stated that the stock should resume trading again on 16 October.

As for how the health care happenings will effect biotech, I won't get too much into my personal political beliefs behind ObamaCare here, but I will say that if the mid-term election season of 2010 creeps to close, I don't think that the President will be able to push his plans through as the Democrats will be too concentrated on appeasing the voters who are opposing the plan in growing numbers.

What has the potential to effect the biotech sector is the President's support of a five year market exclusivity limit for newly approved drugs. The pharmaceutical and biotech industries will argue - and already have - that five years is not enough time to profit enough to make the monetary investment into clinical trials worth it.

In order to counter-act a potential five-year rule, the sector would need to charge higher prices once the products became approved which defeats the purpose of health care change anyway. There has been some talk by Congress, according to published reports, of allowing companies to be able to receive monetary compensation for their drugs while they are in late stage trials, so that is another option.

At the end of the day, I don't see any drastic changes coming in regards to health care unless the Democrats retain the super majority after the mid-term elections.

Personally, I don't take one politician seriously who does not start a health care debate with "TORT REFORM."

I discuss the subject further at my news blog since I like to keep VFC"s Stock House politics-free.

Disclosure: Long BIEL and SPNGE.

Briefs: CPST, KERX

CPST: Capstone Turbine announced a new distributor on Tuesday when the company named PFI Energy & Ecology as their distributor for Argentina.

Capstone, the maker of low-emission and 'clean' microturbine energy systems, is growing in presence around the world as investors wait for the potential to grow the bottom line of the company.

I still like this stock as a 'green' play for the portfolio - especially when the stock trades down towards a dollar - but I have some scepticism about the chances of this company becoming cash flow break even any time soon. There's no doubt, however, that the business is growing and the potential for big things down the road is there. I've discussed some of that potential in previous posts.

I've still got a long term outlook with this one and it's a stock to watch as the country - and the world - goes green.

Disclosure: VFC is long CPST.



KERX: Shares of Keryx Biopharmaceuticals spiked as high as $2.46 on Thursday morning after the company announced the initiation of another Phase II study for Perifosine, this time to measure the drug's effectiveness in treating relapsed or refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) and Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma (SLL).

The news offers insight into the additional potential of Perifosine, but investors shouldn't get too excited just yet because it is only the very beginning stages of a Phase II trial.

The company is currently preparing for the initiation of Phase III trials involving both Perifosine and Zerenex; the progression of those trials hold the more immediate potential to influence the price of the stock.

After selling into the recent spike to over three bucks and buying back in for just over two - in an attempt to get closer to playing with this one on house money, I'm back in accumulation mode with an eye towards the future.

Disclosure: VFC is long KERX.

BioDelivery and Meda Launch Onsolis While the Stock Still Trades for $5

BDSI: BioDelivery Sciences announced in Thursday morning press release that the company's recently-FDA-approved treatment for breakthrough pain in cancer patients, Onsolis, is ready for a commercial launch.

The commercial launch of the product, according to the press release, will take place next week by the US subsidiary of Meda Pharmaceuticals. Meda, also according to the release, has already initiated a national sales campaign.

It didn't take long for BioDelivery and Meda to get Onsolis off the ground - a sure demonstration of the benefits of having a well established partner - and the imminent launch of the product means that a regular revenue stream for BioDelivery is also imminent.

BioDelivery is due to receive double digit royalties for Onsolis with the potential to rake in an additional $30 million in milestone payments if certain sales thresholds are reached. Don't expect big things from the fourth quarter in terms of sales, but the foothold should be in place for 2010 - a year in which BDSI could see some huge (in terms of percentages) growth.

With a stock price of still under $5 (at market open) and market cap of just under 100 million, I think that BDSI is well worth the risk as a long term investment. As I've stated previously, once the FDA approved Onsolis I saw BDSI as a good long term investment moving forward - and I stand by that statement.

If you can still get in for below five dollars - I say buy.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

Thursday's Briefs: CVM, CSUH, PPHM

CVM: What's left to say about Cel Sci Corp? That company and its stock have received a heck of a lot of press over the past couple of weeks and I maintain my opinion that - in my opinion - the stock will pay off based on the potential of Multikine; and as I've said before, the LEAPS swine flu potential is icing on the cake.

Additionally, the company is very likely to pull in some fairly significant revenue from rentees who are expected to rent space in the new facility. It could be assumed that any money raised from the rent will help fund the Multikine Phase III trial, which I expect will get underway in the not-so-distant future.

I'm basing that opinion on previous released information and the fact that the Cel Sci website has recently added a number of job listings - all having to do with vaccine manufacturing.

In my opinion, the job listings are a good indicator that Cel Sci is in fact preparing for the Multikine Phase III trial - contrary to what the naysayers have been saying over the past couple of weeks.

As always, CVM is a stock to watch and buy the dips if you're still accumulating.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



CSUH.ob: CEO Steve Haley of Celsius Holdings will be available to investors for a Q & A session during a Live interview on Investment Nation at 6 PM Thursday (today).

It would be asking too much to expect news to be released in conjunction with the interview, but these interviews are a great opportunity for the small investor to ask questions directly to the CEO. Additionally, it give Mr. Haley the opportunity to stay 'in touch' with those investors.

The next big news that I'm expecting from this company is a major distribution announcement as the result of the new CROSSMARK association.

I think that eventually any buy at these prices is going to be considered a steal as this company and its product - the calorie burning beverage, Celsius - have to potential to take off.

Disclosure: Long CSUH.



PPHM: On Monday Peregrine Pharmaceuticals issued a press release announcing Positive Results From the company's Phase II Bavituximab Lung Cancer Trial. A full copy of the press release is HERE. The PR had little, if any, influence on the stock price.

I started accumulating shares of this company earlier this year based on the potential of Peregrine's two leading clinical products - Cotara and Bavituximab - which are currently being investigated for effectiveness in Phase II trials to treat various cancer and infectious disease indications.

I'll continue to accumulate for the long term as long as the stock is trading for below seventy cents.

Disclosure: Long PPHM

Some Quick Points: SPNGE, CVM

I wanted to quickly emphasize/reiterate/update a couple of points that I made earlier today.

First, regarding SPNGE, I don't feel like I expressed enough my concerns about the stock as much as I did my thoughts on its potential to rise. As I previously explained, I do like the stock as a 'buy it while its down play,' but I also see a possible short term downside that I did not fully explain earlier today.

Before the SEC halted trading, I thought that the stock was doing the limbo; seeing how low it could go before either the bottom dropped out or it reversed course and started on an uptrend.

After the news about the auditing problems, SPNGE stopped trading on potential and started trading on pessimism and/or fear. That could continue once trading resumes UNLESS the company issues a PR before that time stating that the finances are in order and that the re-audits did not uncover anything too serious.

Keep that in mind - make sure you're on top of the DD before you start playing with the stock once trading resumes.

Disclosure: Long SPNGE.



CVM: I didn't spend too much time discussing Adam Feuerstein's mid-day article questioning the LEAPS swine flu trial, but I will say this:

If Adam is wondering why the company doesn't feel inclined to give him the time of day, let alone any possible insider information, I'll help him out.

In a hypothetical scenario, if someone were to spend an almost creepy amount of time talking smak about my wife and kids, and then that person called me up on the telephone and wanted to chat - I'll tell you right now that the chat is not going to happen.

To the scientists and directors at Cel Sci, Multikine and LEAPS are their babies. And they've developed their babies into viable product candidates that can potentially save lives. The 'Stein has gone out of his way to bash their babies for obvious manipulative reasons in order to - in my opinion and in the opinions of a whole lot of others out there - line his own pockets .

So he's surprised that he's the last one that anybody at Cel Sci wants to talk to?

By responding to BS you're somewhat validating it.

I think Cel Sci did the right thing by ignoring the school girl rumors and did even better by refusing to speak to the source of those rumors; especially when that source already has a reputation for mis-stating facts, twisting the truth and attempting to re-write history.

Disclosure: Long CVM.

Readers Respond: SPNGE, MSBT

SPNGE: A comment from Pete regarding SpongeTech Delivery Systems Inc.:

Vinny,

What's up with SPNGE.ob? Does their de-listing worry you? I just got in at 7 cents a few weeks ago and now it's stopped trading. I'd appreciate your comments.

Thanks in advance.

-Pete

VFC's Take: Shares of the SpongeTech common stock were halted by the SEC as the company and its auditors re-audit the 2008 financial results and audit the 2009 results.

Quoted directly from the press release, the SEC had this to say:

The SEC announced that trading was temporarily suspended because of questions that have been raised about the accuracy and adequacy of publicly disseminated information concerning among other things, the amount of sales and customer orders received by the Company, investment agreements entered into by the Company and the Company’s revenues as reported in its financial statements. In addition, the SEC’s announcement noted that the Company has not filed any periodic reports since its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended February 28, 2009.

Had the stock not been halted, I would have been inclined to take Pete's approach and put in a speculative buy order at between six and seven cents. I already own shares of the stock - I purchased shares in the high teens and doubled down at near nine cents - but I think that it is still worth a speculative investment, especially at these prices.

The SpongeTech stock may be halted, but sales are not. The advertising push by the company has been huge, in my opinion, and the push in advertising should positively effect the bottom line; all we need are some honest auditors to find out just how much.

Also of note, the company filed a Trademark infringement lawsuit against Spongetech, Inc. recently that could also bring in some money if the case works out in favor of the real SpongeTech, but I wouldn't invest based solely on that case.

When it's all said and done, right now I consider this a 'buy when the horse is being kicked while he's down' kind of stock. If the re-audited numbers are not too far off from the original numbers, then the horse may get right back up. It's a risky play, but I think that it could pay off as a speculative investment. Things were looking up for the company before the accounting news hit.

I wouldn't bet the farm on it, however, and I wouldn't put enough money here - speculative or not - that is going to cause you to lose sleep over it.

I think that eventually you'll get more than your seven cents back, Pete. Thanks for the comment.

Disclosure: VFC is long SPNGE.ob.



MSBT.ob: A comment from Noah regarding MSBT:

Hi VFC,
What are your thoughts on MSBT? High of day (at this time) is .26! Do you think they'll keep climbing up in anticipation of Cytosorb results?

Thanks!
Noah

VFC's Take: I maintain my stance that MSBT is going to move up and possibly approach the $1 mark by early next year in anticipation of the Cytosorb results. The recent move in the stock has been pretty steady - sharp rises followed by pullbacks for profit taking and consolidation - and investors have had the opportunity to sell into the spikes in order to end up on 'house money' with the stock.

I would have preferred investors have loaded up when this stock was below ten cents for so long, but if your DD still has you comfortable with buying at these prices (market cap is still only nine million) then try to buy the dips.

Volume has been up, price has been up and if Cytosorb works, then this stock will really be for real.

I still like the risk/reward with MSBT - but try not to buy at the high of the day, to date there has always been a retracement following the high during the recent run.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

The Attack on Cel Sci is Reminiscent of the Attack on Antigenics

Before I get started today, I just want to emphasize a couple of facts for readers:

1. I am not compensated in any way, shape or form by any of the companies that I write about. The only compensation coming my way as a result of this blog are from the Google AdSense, Linkshare and Amazon Affiliates programs.

2. In response to a few comments and emails that I've received from the peanut gallery - if Feuerstein and the garbage put out by The Street.com can be considered news by Yahoo Finance, then I'll be damned if what VFC has to say isn't news, too.



Shares of Cel Sci Corp (CVM) were on the rebound during early trading on Wednesday after the effects of some unfounded attacks on the company by Adam Feuerstein and The Street.com look to have finally wore off.

While keeping an eye on the current Cel Sci situation, it's also as good a time as any to remind the small investor that these games are played often by those that may not have the bests interests of you - the small investor - at heart; let alone the interests of the companies which they attack nor the patients whom will greatly benefit from the advancement of the new products under development.

In order to remain grounded through the volatility, one must keep in mind that it isn't all about someone (whether that someone is a hedge fund, an analyst, a company, a small investor or you and me) making money. The largest part of the whole picture is that many of the products and treatments that are under development - the very same products that The Street takes extra time to discredit - are potentially life saving or life extending products.

As a reader of my blog said to me in an email recently, "If I lose all of my money in an investment but the company in which I invested develops a drug that saves lives, then it was a good investment."

Rest assured - some on the street ARE trying to make sure that you lose all of your money in these investments, but I think it's a great thing when the small investor can benefit along with a company developing a ground breaking product - and I think that cancer immunotherapy treatments are groundbreaking.

As for the attacks on these companies; It's one thing to have an opinion that the treatments won't make it to market for whatever reason - and it's fine to express those opinions, but it's a whole different ballgame to misrepresent facts and attack a company for reasons of personal financial gain at the expense of the little guy.

In VFC's House, that's called unethical.

However, these attacks - mostly likely led by short sellers who want to make money on the way down and then buy low so that they can make money on the way up - are a part of the game and the small investor needs to take advantage of it by buying on the dips, not by being scared into selling their shares.

That's where DD becomes ever so important. In order to have the confidence to hold through the storm, an investor must be confident in his or reasons for investing; if you haven't done your DD and seen the facts for yourself, and then processed those facts, you won't have the personal fortitude to add more shares as your stock is dropping.

That being said, the current CVM fiasco is reminiscent of Adam Feuerstein's attack on Antigenics (AGEN) a couple of months ago. The attack on Antigenics came via video message from the The Street; a video message obviously script read by a nervous and sweaty Adam Feuerstein who attempted to use crayons to make his point - which wasn't really a valid point anyway.

In attacking Antigenics and that company's kidney cancer vaccine Oncophage, Feuerstein misrepresented facts or just skipped them completely. Additionally, there was no mention of the vaccine adjuvant QS-21 that the company has developed and is currently being tested in over 20 clinical stage vaccines. Also of note during his rant, Adam claims to "know" Dendreon (DNDN). For the record, both Feuerstein and Cramer were wrong on DNDN every step of the way. It's a classless act on the 'Stein's part to try and rewrite that history and claim to have picked correctly with Dendreon.

We can't get them all right, but there's nothing wrong with getting a stock wrong and owning up to it. The goal in stock investing is to be right more often than wrong - not to re-write history when it doesn't go your way.

To read my full response to Feuerstein's attack on Antigenics, click here.

When the attacks come, the small investor has to take them for what they're worth and invest accordingly. In the case of Feuerstein, his game is becoming an old and tired one and it's only a matter of time before people just stop listening; except for those that he works for.

Both Cel Sci and Antigenics are loaded with life saving potential. Sometimes you've just got to look past the greed to see it.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN, long CVM.

The Results Are In For Celsius (CSUH): Another Clinical Study Shows That The Calorie Burning Beverage Does More Than Just Burn Calories

Celsius Holdings (CSUH.ob), maker of the world's first calorie burning beverage, issued a late day press release on Tuesday announcing the results of a fifth clinical study that confirmed the calorie-burning effects that the beverage showed in four previous trials.

According to Tuesday's press release, Celsius "not only burns up to 100 or more calories per can, it also enhances the benefits of moderate exercise by enhancing body composition and improving cardiovascular health, according to the latest independent clinical study, Celsius Holdings, Inc. announced today."

The trial was conducted by the University of Kentucky and measured the effectiveness of the product in previously sedentary women who consumed one 12 oz. can before a workout.

Those women who consumed Celsius pre-workout showed the following benefits compared to those who didn't:

[copied directly from the PR]
-- 46% greater fat loss
-- 27% greater muscle mass
-- 35% greater endurance performance
-- Drinking Celsius with or without exercise resulted in a significant
drop in total cholesterol (5 to 13%) and bad LDL cholesterol (12 to 18%).
Exercise alone had no effect on blood lipid levels.

Of note, the study emphasized the fact that Celsius can lower cholesterol in addition to the other obvious benefits.

Many investors, and consumers of the product, were already aware of these benefits either from the first four studies or from simply drinking the drink before a workout, but the more data that is compiled, the easier it could be to market the product.

In additional news, opening night for the NHL's Florida Panthers is this coming Saturday and as we all know, Celsius is the "the official calorie burning drink" of the team. Saturday's matchup has the Panthers playing host to the New Jersey Devils - another big market that will gain exposure to the product by viewing the game on TV.

According to the official company blog, the Celsius Hot Spot, the Green Tea flavor Raspberry Acai and the Sparkling flavor of Orange will both be available at concession stands inside the arena.

The above news is great, but maybe more significant is the recent association with CROSSMARK.

CROSSMARK has some big players on board (General Mills, Johnson & Johnson, Dole - just to name a few) and their marketing connections are sure to be an asset to Celsius, maybe in the very near term.

I still think that investors are still getting in on the ground floor of a business that is about to see some huge revenue growth - especially after the recent pullback into the mid to high thirty cent range.

It is my own speculation that we are going to hear about a major distribution agreement - thanks to CROSSMARK - sometime in the near future. In my opinion, it'll probably be bigger than the 7-Eleven announcement.

Another factor to still keep in mind is the 'wild card' factor - a big celebrity coming on board. If this product eventually makes it to the talk show airwaves, big things can happen fast.

Although I feel set in my position, I'm still inclined to add a few shares on any significant dips because I think that things are ready to heat up for Celsius Holdings and the product Celsius.

And the company now has five clinical studies to back up its claims.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Of note for potential new investors, CSUH is no longer recognized as a Sharebuilder listed security. For any new stock purchases of CSUH and many other sub-$1 stocks, I now use Zecco.

Tuesday's Briefs: TDLP, BDSI, CVM

TDLP.ob: Shares of Transdel Pharmaceuticals, INC. traded up to as high as four dollars during early trading on Tuesday after the company announced positive Phase III trial results for its lead topical pain drug Ketotransdel. The trial, according to the press release, "evaluated the efficacy and safety of the drug in acute soft tissue injuries of the upper and lower extremities."

The company offered no insight as to when they may file for an FDA approval based on the positive results, but they did state that they are actively seeking a commercial partner for the product, so it is possible that we won't hear about an FDA filing until the announcement of a partner. It's also possible that the company will choose not to raise money through a stock offering at this time pending a partnership deal, but if a deal takes time to materialize then a stock offering becomes a possibility.

With a drug that possibly could garner approval as [quoted from the press release] "the first topical NSAID cream product available by prescription in the United States for acute pain management," I like TDLP as a speculative long term investment. I say speculative still because the drug is not yet FDA approved.

The post-positve-results trading has the stock in the mid two dollar range on high, but not spectacular trading volume so the stock still may be trading under the radar. With a market cap of just over forty million right now, TDLP could be a great long term pick up right now.

If you're just buying in, I wouldn't suggest buying in all at once; get a foothold and accumulate on any dips. There's still a long time between now and when(if)ever the drug makes it to market so there's bound to be some volatility along the way.

Keep an eye out for partnership news.

Disclosure: No position.



BDSI: Shares of BioDelivery Sciences broke above the $5 dollar barrier for the first time in a little while after a Tuesday morning press release annouced that the company has received a $1.3 million grant from the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research.

The grant, according to the press release, is [quoted directly from the release] "for Bioral Amphotericin B, an oral formulation of the fungicidal treatment amphotericin B in BDSI’s patented Bioral drug delivery technology, to further study the formulation in the treatment of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis."

The money amount is fairly insignificant, but what should be taken away from this PR is that there is growing interest in BioDelivery's products and the BEMA drug delivery technology.

I still like BDSI as a long term growth stock.

Disclosure: Long BDSI.



CVM: As an update to my earlier post regarding Cel Sci, I again couldn't resist the buy for just above $1.30.

It's been a bumpy road for this stock so far this week, but in the end it'll be real news and real products that will make or break this company, not some immature high-school-girl bickering.

I'll take advantage of the volatility and buy the dips as long as I can before real news hits.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

The Buzz Surrounding Cel Sci (CVM)

Shares of Cel Sci (CVM) traded down during pre-market trading on Tuesday after The Street.com published yet another article bashing the company and the potential of its pipeline. Undoubtedly some shareholders are going to be shaken out of the stock by the antics of Feuerstein, but I say take advantage of the dip.

This is one of those situations where a shareholder needs to rely on their own DD and decide for themselves whether or not their investment is a worthy one. I've been a shareholder of CVM for some time and I made it a point to buy as many shares as I could afford while the stock was trading for under thirty cents. I'm also willing to add to my position now because, as I've stated before, I like the potential of Multikine making it big time.

In my opinion, Cel Sci's swine flu treatment using the LEAPS technology is just icing on the cake. However, the fact that treatment is currently being investigated for effectiveness in a human clinical trial shows that the "icing on the cake" could become a reality if it performs as expected.

I'll also reiterate the fact that Cel Sci's Baltimore manufacturing facility is due to open in short time and with that will most likely come an announcement that will inform investors of a start date for the Multikine Phase III trial. Multikine, as a head and neck cancer immunotherapy treatment that performed well in Phase II trials, will be huge if it makes it to market - in my opinion.

So ignore all the hoopla being thrown around by The Street.com and just concentrate on the facts; and then invest based on your own assertations of those facts. In my opinion, CVM is still a stock to accumulate on any dips.

I'll just add this last parting note: Keep in mind that Jim Cramer, Adam Feuerstein and The Street.com were on the wrong side of Dendreon (DNDN) BOTH TIMES the stock rose from about four dollars to the mid twenties. I remember Cramer coming out on his 'Mad Money' CNBC show and insinuating that the doctors got it wrong. In his mind, 'The Street' didn't believe in Provenge, so neither should the doctors. He also spoke about the hedge funds that he knew went bust for betting against Provenge - almost as if he wanted us to feel sympathy for them. They bet against DNDN, lost, and now Feuerstein re-writes history by claiming that DNDN was a victory of his. Now he's realized how late to the game he is with Cel Sci (the stock is already a five-bagger this year, even with the recent pullback) and he needs to drop the stock so that his boys can buy in.

The point is, these guys on 'The Street' have little interest in whether a new and potentially life saving product makes it to market - they just care about money. Not your money, not my money - only the money that lines their pockets. The small investor needs to be aware of that and keep a clear head when there's a thousand things coming at you from those who would be glad to swipe the last dollar from your hand.

I think Cel Sci is on to something. I originally invested in this stock for the potential of Multikine alone, but now I see that there is real potential in the LEAPS technology. I also thought that LEAPS as a swine flu treatment was just a bunch of fluff being put out by the company in an attempt to get the stock price to over a dollar, but when the PR was issued announcing a clinical trial, then I saw that the potential was real.

The "he said she said" games being played by The Street look pretty immature coming from a supposed well-established company, but the games will be played and the small investor needs to take advantage.

If you're confident in your DD, then buy the dips.

Disclosure: Long CVM.

As is always the case with investing in companies that are developing potentially life saving drugs, the real benefit comes to those patients that need it. Any financial gains made by investors is largely a secondary benefit compared to the real benefit that the patient receives - life.

Monday's Stock Briefs: CPST, AGEN, CVM

In an absolutely boring trading day, there were a few stocks that were worthy of mention on Monday:



CPST: Capstone Turbine, the maker of low-emission microturbine energy systems, opened the trading week by releasing news that the company has received $3 million in follow-on orders from two of its large oil & gas customers; Aquatec-Maxcon Pty Ltd and Pumps & Service.

The stock trader higher by about 4% on the news, but volume was somewhat flat.

Capstone is still a good long term 'green' pick, in my opinion, and I'll continue to follow it as the company looks to move towards profitability. If you're still looking for a 'green' pick for the portfolio, it may be worth adding CPST on the dips.

Disclosure: VFC is long CPST.



CVM: As CVM dropped to nearly $1.50, I couldn't resist adding to my holdings of the stock on Monday morning - even though it's a big 'average up' for me.

There's too much news due to be released in the fourth quarter of this year regarding Multikine and LEAPS for me to be comfortable with passing up the opportunity to add shares now.

Aside from any updates on the LEAPS trial, the fact that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added Cel Sci to the list of "vaccine and biologics manufacturers and distributors" could be an indicator that the FDA has signed off on Cel Sci's Baltimore manufacturing facility and an official announcement is pending. Once the FDA clears the facility I would expect to hear the announcement of a start date for the long-awaited Multikine Phase III trial.

Cel Sci, after already trading for five times its value at the beginning this year, still has quite a bit of room to move higher, if all goes according to plan over the next few months.



AGEN: Shares of Antigenics continued to trade for near two dollars on Monday, a price attractive enough where I felt it was worth adding a few more shares of the stock.

Antigenics is due to release news regarding the commercial launch in Russia of its kidney cancer vaccine Oncophage in the fourth quarter of this year and that news will most likely be accompanied by an announcement that the Russian government intends to reimburse some costs of administering the vaccine to patients. Additionally, the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) is reviewing Oncophage for a possible conditional approval in Europe.

Previously, Oncophage failed to meet the endpoints of a late stage Phase III trial and therefor never made it to the FDA for approval review. However, a subset group of patients who had received Oncophage earlier along in disease progression were shown to benefit from the vaccine and Russia granted approval based on that subset. As longer term follow-up data continues to be analyzed, the evidence is there that Oncophage works.

As cancer immunotherapy treatments become more widely accepted after the rise of Dendreon (DNDN) and that company's prostate cancer vaccine Provenge, popular opinion is shifting to the belief that the vaccines will work better if they have a healthier immune system off which to feed - as was the case with the subset of patients in the Oncophage trial.

In addition to the potential of Oncophage, Antigenics also has QS-21 to offer. QS-21 is a vaccine adjuvant currently being used in various vaccines being produced by various licensees of Antigenics, including GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

Antigenics is already a huge gainer this year and I still believe that the stock has more room to move up based on the potential of the aforementioned products.

Disclosure: Long AGEN.

Stock Watch: TTNP, CSUH, CVM, BIEL

A few stocks worth watching early in the week:

TTNP.pk: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals traded relatively flat after last week's news announcing that the company will receive a $7.6 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) for the development of Probuphine, a Phase III pipeline candidate to treat Opioid addiction.

Every trading day that passes is another day closer to the commercial launch of Fanapt, and now that the fourth quarter is under way, the announcement could come at any time. It's also likely that news of a Fanapt patent extension or a buyout of Vanda and/or Titan would come before the Fanapt launch.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.



CSUH.ob: The volatility that overtook the stock of Celsius Holdings on Friday definitely makes CSUH a stock to watch on Monday morning.

It's possible that the company has news to release this week - hence the 'tree shake' on Friday, but if the drop was in fact a precursor to a further dip, many an investor - including this one - will be standing by to pick up a few more shares.

The hockey season is underway and the Florida Panthers played at home against the Blackhawks on Saturday, so viewers in the Chicago market were privy to the Celsius sponsorship of the Panthers home stadium as well as those in the Florida market.

Take the hockey exposure and combine it with the potential of the CROSSMARK deal and a national advertising campaign and you get the impression that we could start seeing some significant sales growth coming on.

It could be a choppy trading trading week for CSUH, so keep that trading figure ready.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



CVM: It looks like the writing staff at BioMedReports.com, most notably M E Garza, must be getting under Adam Feuerstein's skin because he's decided to enact a personal vendetta with the website. The thing is, it makes Adam and his puppetmasters at the The Street.com look pretty bad when other sites post facts about a company and its stock, and then form opinions based on those facts. Since BioMedReports was doing just that, Adam decided to bash that website along with a bash on CVM.

It's my opinion that the Adam bash parade is starting to loose steam, in my opinion, in the same way that the 'cry wolf' ended up losing steam for 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf'. Any positive news from CVM this week will negate any downside influence that Adam F had on the stock.

The only ones that follow the Street.com any more are the big boys that count on them to bash or pump whenever they need a puppet to do their bidding - which does not include looking out for the little guy. When Feuerstein tells a story, he only tells you part of the story.

Regardless of the Adam F controversy, there's quite a bit of news pending during the fourth quarter - including Multikine news, the opening of the Baltimore facility and LEAPS - that could influence the price of this stock. It could get bumpy this week - if there is no news released I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock dip down to below the $1.50 level one more time.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.



BIEL.pk: BioElectronics is another stock that has recently been bashed by Feuerstein. I was actually pretty surprised that he commented on this company and its products because previously I never saw The Street comment on stocks that traded for mere pennies. What I think is going on is that, at Street corporate, they are starting to see investors being drawn to websites that will comment on biotech companies that trade for below a buck and that could hurt - or already is - their own subscription numbers. So they sent Adam to start covering these stocks that other sites, like BioMedReports, already were. Only now he's a bit over matched. Since he's never paid any attention to them before, he's got no idea what these companies or their products do.

For instance, he commented on BioElectronics but he had no idea what ActiPatch was. That was after he commented on AGEN, but never mentioned QS-21 until weeks after his original bash - went after he did his homework.

As for BioElectronics, I doubt that many will be influenced by anything that Feuerstein has to say. Investors that find companies like BioElectronics when they're trading for pennies are investors that know what they're looking for and do their own DD. They don't need The Street.com to do for them what they can do for themselves.

Feuerstein is treading a fine line when he starts commenting on stocks like AGEN, CVM and BIEL - ones that previously he wouldn't touch - because investors in these companies have been around for years, done their DD and know a whole lot more about them than he does.

The Street.com speaks for itself. The opening page is a big picture of a happy Jim Cramer bragging about his 22% gain this year. He entices you by saying, "This could be your gain!" Once you pay Jim hundreds of dollars he'll tip you off to good stocks and get you a 22% gain. The irony? The stocks that The Street is bashing now - AGEN, CVM and BIEL - are all at least triples this year alone. Let Jim and Adam have thier 22% game.

VFC will take the triple.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Readers Respond: CVM, NEOL

CVM: A comment from Lenny regarding Cel Sci Corp:

Hi Vinny,

Do you think CVM will continue to drift down, and if so, what price do you think I should target? is $1.40 too much to hope for?

I sold my entire position at $1.85 and want to get back in ... just looking for a good entry point. I know it is a bad idea to do this (sell entire position) but my goal is to get to a 'house money' position and my work does not permit me to capitalize on stock spikes.

CVM has been a great example of my struggles - had bought in at .45, sold at 1.30, had to chase to buy back in at 1.42, then sold again at $1.85 - market timing is a friggin nightmare since I travel and work during day. This makes me nervous to play the trading game.

At least with Kerx, even though I had sold 1 day too early and missed the huge move up, at least I was lucky to get back in below where I sold so that in the end i made some money - on Kerx have gone in and out a couple of times and am almost on house money so at least this one is playing out, but I know it is a mistake selling my entire postion.

With Biel, I bought more shares than I initially would have wanted because I 'reserved' some shares for selling once it hits a certain price (is that what you did on Celsius?) - i know it is a much smarter approach, it just meant tying up more capital than I originally wanted to invest.

Let me know your thoughts.

Thks!

Lenny

VFC's Take: If CVM is an example of your troubles, you're going to have a lot of people pretty envious of your "troubles!" I understand where you're coming from, but your "troubles" netted you a near triple and then a 30% gain; there's nothing wrong with having "troubles" like that!

I understand that your concern is that you're not leaving enough - if any - shares on the table to take part in any continued stock run after you've sold to realize profits. My response to that is that you've got to balance your goals; one goal being to end up playing on 'house money' and the other being to leave enough on the table to take part in any continued run.

The way I see it, the desire to play entirely on house money does not justify selling your entire position on every trade. At the end of the day, it's still stock trading and you are going to incur a certain level of risk no matter what.

One option is to use half of your shares as your base and the other half to trade.

Another option is to not trade and just play the 'buy the dips' game. This actually may suit your needs better since you travel. It's a lot less stressful to just accumulate on dips than it is to trade - and it makes the taxes a hell of a lot easier at the end of the year. Look at is as sacrificing the smaller gains of the trade for the larger gains that can be had down the road.

I think that whether you trade or just accumulate the dips depends a lot on how much confidence you have in the stock. Stocks like CVM, AGEN and CSUH I am just accumulating and holding because I think that there will be nice gains to be had down the road. Other stocks I traded a bit to go on house money because I had something to doubt; such as BDSI pre-Onsolis-approval, DNDN pre-Provenge-Phase III results and KERX, if only because I don't put all my faith in Phase II trials.

It's all about finding your comfort zone, but don't be afraid of 'buy the dips and hold' sometimes if it makes your life easier, and definitely never kick yourself in the butt for making money! Your CVM trades were nice.

As for BIEL, your entry strategy holds water - load up in order to sell on the way up. I did that with CSUH, since you asked, as well as with a bunch of other stocks that traded at crazy prices over the past year (EPCT, AGEN, CVM all for about twenty cents, SIRI for six cents and I loaded on CSUH at sub-five cents). I'm not sure when you first bought in, but as the stock rises and you start selling off shares, you're sure to see the spare cash on hand that you can turn into new investments.

Don't try to do too much. If your life is easier not trying to get to house money on everything, then pick the one or two stocks in your portfolio that you deem the riskiest and just concentrate on trading those; accumulate the rest.

Good luck and congrats on your trades!



NEOL.pk: A comment from Alejandro regarding NEOL:

HI VFC.. As always thank for your time and answer my questions, I´m really learning with your comments, if there are anything I can do for you, I would be pleasured to do it.
I´m new in this "game" and sometimes I don´t understand if it has stablished rules, so thanks to VFC I´m learning how to play with my own strategy.
I have been playing a little with this share as a speculative one, I think that a company (quoting information from google) "who has five drug product candidates in various stages of clinical and pre-clinical development for the treatment of cancer and one drug product candidate in pre-clinical development for treatment of interstitial pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and asthma" with a mkt cap of 7M (not now, but that was the mkt cap when I got in),any news about any of its studies should duplicate its Mkt cap in a minute, and if I did well my dd, they managed to survive the economic crisis so I think they will be able to continuing their developments. Well I was wrong about that it would need information to do it. So, I took advantage of the spike that had today, even when I missed the high price that it has reached.
Initially my position was 5000 shares at a price of 0.22, after playing a little going in and out, I had 5900 shares keeping the net original amount of money I had played, I had an average of 0.19 per share. I sold just 2000 today at a price of 0.45 (I missed the 0.5 top), and I will keep 2000 more to be sold if the price rise even more (without any information), finally I will keep a little amount of shares on house as no risk speculative position. If after this spike the price go down and reach again the .20 levels, I would do the same that I was doing before but with money on house.
Even when I have very good tolerance for the red percentages, I want to learn to be smart enough to be winning at the end of the day.
Thank you very much, I appreciate very much all your advices.

VFC's Take: I think you played that great, Alejandro. Taking profits is a must - even if you think that the price of a stock is going to continue rising. You never know when the broad market will crash, planes will fly into buildings or CEOs will go to jail; even go