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Friday, July 31, 2009

Marine Exploration (MEXP.ob)

The comment boards and emails have brought quite a few stock suggestions and questions from readers of VFC's Stock House, some asking for VFC's take on a particular stock. I'll address as many as I can, but keep in mind that I have not thoroughly researched most of these companies and I am offering my insights on my initial positive and/or negative feelings regarding these stocks.

Question:

What is your take on MEXP? I read that Marine Exploration found a second sunk treasure ship.If this is confirmed and the find is valued at 10M how much price jump would you expect?

VFC's Take: I have considered toying around with MEXP and other 'treasure-hunter' stocks before, but I've always passed. In my opinion, MEXP is a huge gamble- it could be worth nothing or it could jump huge. However, I think there are much better risk-reward plays out there than the 'treasure-hunters.'

That being said, if you buy in and want to take advantage of a 'hype' trade, then I suggest you put yourself in a position to monitor the stock on an amost hourly basis so that you can pull the sell trigger in a hurry. If you can't do that, set a limit order for a price that you will be satisfied with.

I look at this stock more as a lottery ticket than as a long term investment- if you hit, cash it in right away because the finding of a treasure is a one time event, not a long term plan.

Additionally, when these companies do find a treasure, the finding is usually followed by lawsuits and legalities that delay any turnover of revenue.

As for how high I think the stock could go, this stock will trade on hype and hype alone, in my opinion; there will be no factoring of earnings multiples. The jump will be huge, percentage wise, in my opinion, if it looks like the company gets to keep whatever they found, but it will probably be manipulated by the big boys on the way up and then on the way down again.

The way I see it, the treasure hunters are out to make themselves money, not to make you money.

As a company to invest in I say stay away, especially for the inexperienced trader.
As a stock to trade in and out of, Ok - I'll buy that, as long as you know what you're doing. A trader could make some good money by trading the hype and volatility.

Disclosure: No positions.
Golfballs.com

Question: When Will MedaSorb (MSBT) Release Phase III Results for CytoSorb?

The comment boards and emails have brought quite a few stock suggestions and questions from readers of VFC's Stock House, some asking for VFC's take on a particular stock. I'll address as many as I can, but keep in mind that I have not thoroughly researched most of these companies and I am offering my insights on my initial positive and/or negative feelings regarding these stocks.

Question:

VFC,

When do you think MSBT will release the P3 results for that drug? 3Q?

Thanks!

VFC's Take: I've previously stated that MSBT.ob is flying below the radar right now, in my opinion, while trading for six cents - on low volume - day after day.

While I believe that the stock is worth buying even while MedaSorb is a 'one trick pony' (if CytoSorb fails, there's no Plan B), the risk-reward is worth it while the stock is trading for below ten cents, in my opinion. As I like to say, for the cost of night on the town, a small investor can buy thousands of shares. If Cytosorb is approved and the stock gets to a dollar, then the small investor just made thousands of dollars. If it fails, then the small investor lost the equivalent of a night on the town - but got away without a hangover.

Cytosord- a blood-cleaning treatment for severe Sepsis- is currently being evaluated for effectiveness in a Phase III trial in Europe.

Now for the answer to the question:

According to published reports and statement by the company, the trial should be fully enrolled by the end of 2009 with results ready for release in early 2010. The company then expects a 6-9 month approval time frame.

I have MSBT rated as a mid-term (6 months to 2 years) speculative pick in my portfolio and I will add as long as it trades under the radar.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

Delivery Concepts LLC

VFC's Take on Stocks Recommended by Readers: AEZS

The comment boards and emails have brought quite a few stock suggestions from readers of VFC's Stock House, some asking for VFC's take on a particular stock. I'll address as many as I can, but keep in mind that I have not thoroughly researched most of these companies and I am offering my insights on my initial positive and/or negative feelings regarding these stocks.

AEZS: AEterna Zentaris is a speculative biopharmaceutical company that demonstrates why it is always best to choose speculative biotech/pharma plays that have multiple drug candidates in the pipeline and are not 'one trick ponies.'

When the company announced that it's lung cancer drug, Perifosine, failed to prove effective in a mid-stage trial, the stock plummeted to under thirty cents. However, because the company had more to offer than just Perifosine, the stock quickly recovered and closed the week at $2.62.

The recent rise in stock price (AEZS closed up over 20% on Friday) can be attributed to the pending Phase III results of Cetrorelix, a treatment for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH). In plain English, it is a treatment for the non-cancerous enlargement of the prostate gland.

Phase II results were positive and there are no safety issues with the drug. Additionally, the company announced that they will be releasing the results earlier than expected, which is neither a positive nor negative implication, but encouraging, nonetheless.

The results will be released in Q3 and, if positive, an NDA will be filed with the FDA in 2010.

Current trading is based on anticipation of Cetrorelix results, but AEterna has additional early to mid stage drugs in the pipeline that treat various indicaations, including Ovarian, prostate, and endometrial cancers.

Judging by Friday's price spike on big volume, investors may be expecting news on Monday morning.

VFC's Take: I don't suggest chasing the stock if you're not already in. If the stock continues to rise and you buy in high, it'll hurt if the stock drops on bad news and you're stuck with a loss (see: those that bought INSM for over two bucks). Instead of chasing this stock and buying high, look for another speculative play that has not yet began to run.

However, if you want in on AEZS (the stock has good potential- especially if the Phase III results are positive), wait and see what happens on Monday morning. If positive results are released, then you've already missed the boat. In that case let the stock jump and keep it on your watch list because most likely it will retreat a bit as the hype dies down; there should be a quiet period between positive results and FDA submission/approval that will allow you to get in cheaper, if you want to hold through an FDA decision.

If you are already in this stock, congratulations on a nice run, but I suggest taking some profits on the spike leading up to results. Even though speculation is that results may be positive, nothing is a sure thing and bad results could drop the stock to below one dollar. Realize some profit and attempt to be on house money by the time results are released.

Disclosure: No position in AEZS.

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Celsius (CSUH) is Getting Attention From the Stars; Mario Lopez and Adam Sandler are On Board

As shares of Celsius Holdings (CSUH) have been in a sharp decline over the past week, the product continues to gain traction in the market place.

An article published on Friday by examiner.com reported the growing popularity of the world's first calorie burning beverage among the world of celebrities.

The article, in my opinion, was very vague about which celebrities were using Celsius, but Adam Sandler was mentioned by name and the lead photo was of Mario Lopez holding a can of the product.



Other than those two, Celsius founder - and wife of CEO Steve Haley - was quoted, according to the article, as saying that "Celsius has been popular with various celebrities, who all keep re-ordering it."

Additionally, Jan added that "The Dancing with the Stars celebs tend to prefer the non carbonated Green Tea flavors such as the Raspberry Acai and Peach Mango."

Both are compelling statements that have me wondering what announcements, if any, are in store for the future.

If word got out that the celebrity cast of "Dancing With the Stars" drinks Celsius before their dance routines (practices or actual), that could be a huge boost towards mainstream product validation because it's widely talked about how much weight is lost during the season by the DWTS cast.

Lopez is an alumni of the program and, while not as popular as he thinks he is, it wouldn't hurt to have him seen in magazines or in public drinking Celsius.

Adam Sandler touches another base. Not the specimen of physical fitness, Sandler can appeal to the type that doesn't make hitting the gym a daily part of their routine, but would still drink Celsius to burn a few extra calories after downing half of a Papa John's meat lover pie.

The Celsius stock has retreated somewhat over the past couple of weeks after having reached a high of seventy cents. Friday's trading action was tricky- it could be construed as a sign that the stock is going to continue to drop after 2nd quarter results that, while stellar when considering growth, were below even the Celsius CEO's expectations- if only because some first time buyers had yet to place their orders when Q1 came to an end.

However, the trading also reminded me of how AGEN traded right before a run from the sixty cent range to nearly two dollars. Don't infer from my statement that I believe that CSUH will reach two dollars anytime soon - because I don't - I'm just stating that speculative stocks sometimes set off contrary indicators; such as a fairly significant drop in price, but not a crash, on average volume - like Friday's CSUH trading. It could very well be an attempt by the big boys to 'shake out the weak hands' by dropping the stock in a fashion that induces selling from those who panic at the first sign of trouble. That allows the big boys to gobble up cheap shares right before a run.

The same thing also occurred with TTNP when that stock dropped to below a dollar for a day before running to $1.75.

Since Celsius is still speculative, it's hard to say either way what is going on with the stock, but because a little bit of hype could send this stock shooting upwards, VFC is not selling any sub - $1 shares. I've spent over a year accumulating shares of this stock, gutting it out to buy as the stock dropped to under three cents, and the last thing I want to do is be on the sidelines if surprising news propels the stock even further to the upside.

That being said, long term investors would be smart to take profits when the stock spikes- reward yourself for your hard work because a profit is not a profit until it is realized. Many did sell when CSUH hit the sixty cent level, and ordinarily I would sell too, but I sold enough shares at twenty five cents (a ten-bagger trade) to satisfy my appetite for immediate returns; my remaining shares I intend to keep for the long term.

The drop back into the forty cent range has given those who were waiting for an entry point a great opportunity to buy in - and if the stock drops even further, into the thirty cent range perhaps, pick up the accumulation.

The growth of the quarterly revenue tells us that the stock will eventually rise if the current growth rate continues.

Long term I think we have a winner with CSUH, but even for the short term - hype matters with speculative stocks; the right news, combined with the right celebrity, could offer investors some quick gains.

Do your own DD and know your tolerance for risk. Also understand how long you want to wait for the potential rewards. CSUH should continue to be a volatile stock, so take advantage of that by selling into the spikes and buying on the dips, but make sure you consistently hold a base of shares in case we get an unexpected pop. I said it before, the last place you want to be is on the sidelines if a stock that you have accumulated for so long pops and you've previously sold your position for a short term, quick gain.

As for the celebrity report that came out on Friday afternoon, I have a feeling that this is just the beginning.

I could be wrong, of course, but next week could be exciting.

Antigenics' (AGEN) Private Placement - VFC's Take

Shares of Antigenics (AGEN) dropped to nearly two dollars during pre-market trading on Friday after news hit the wires that the company had sold five million shares at $2 per in a private placement fund-raising event.

VFC's Take: Private placements are a part of speculative investing and nothing has changed with the potential of the company, so no one should be panicking if shares of AGEN trade for two bucks again. I emphasize- nothing has changed with the potential of the company. Oncophage still has proven to work and it looks like the commercial launch of the product in Russia is close - hence the need to raise the cash - and QS-21 is still loaded with potential. There's nothing to worry about if you invested in AGEN for the long term.

If you're a day/swing/momentum trader that was looking for a quick fix and looking to get out short term for near three dollars, then you might be a little upset.

Also keep in mind that had this placement taken place a couple of weeks ago, it could have been for a $1 dollar price, since shares at that time were trading for about $1.50.

Long term investors should be ecstatic, in my opinion, to have another opportunity to get in for $2. I'm averaged in for well below a dollar, but I've been going against standard investor principle by averaging up in AGEN because of the potential of the company. Two dollars is my buy price and I'll be adding if it remains trading near that price.

Don't let the naysayers tell you that the sky is falling - it's not. In fact, I'm more confident now that the Russian launch for Oncophage is close.

Long termers - take advantage of this dip.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

Honest Florist Square Banner Free Express Delivery

Update on MHAN

Shares of Manhattan Pharmaceuticals continue to trade between about eight and twelve cents after a rise to those levels from about a penny.

With insider shares growing and speculation about Hedrin coming to the United States, I've been receiving an increasing amount of emails asking for an update on this stock, one which I previously called the next TTNP.

Insiders are continuing to increase their positions in MHAN which indicates that they could be increasingly confident in the ultimate US approval of Hedrin. However, it is still possible that the FDA will say that the company needs to conduct a US trial for the pesticide-free head lice treatment and it could be months, if not quarters, before Hedrin makes it to the US market.

Whether MHAN is a short or mid term play, I can see the stock jumping to at least a quarter on pure speculation. If Hedrin gets approved- then we could be talking another TTNP.

I'm fully loaded in MHAN since below three cents and I have yet to sell a share because I'm pretty confident in the fact that Hedrin will ultimately garner US FDA approval. In the meantime, I have had a standing Limit order placed for five cents that has yet to hit.

If you're new to the stock, I suggest placing limit orders for eight, seven, six and five cents and see if they hit. I'm not sure we'll see five cents again unless the company announces a prolonged delay in the progress of Hedrin, but anything under ten cents is going to ultimately look like a good buy, in my opinion.

I hate to average up in my stocks, but I may do it with MHAN.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHAN.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Update on BIEL

Shares of BioElectronics (BIEL.pk) have settled down to under six cents after the hype that lead into Tuesday's conference call died down.

Many investors were expecting the company to release news on an FDA approval on Tuesday, and when that news never came many of the day/swing/momentum traders bailed and looked for their next quick fix. While that outward movement caused the stock to drop significantly, in terms of percentages, long term investors have the opportunity to load up on a stock that belongs to a company that has a potentially huge product.

For the better part of a few weeks, it looked like almost every investor out there was looking at BIEL and all the buying made the stock nearly a ten bagger in a month.

However, since some of that hype has died down, long term investors can re-evaluate their positions and add on any dips and long term minded investors have a more attractive entry point than they did earlier this week.

Expectations of an FDA approval this week were a bit misguided- remember, this is the US Government we're talking about, the only thing they do quick is spend your money.

However, I expect to hear FDA news in Quarter 3. In an effort to temper expectations, I am not expecting a huge spike in share price after an FDA announcement, rather I think news showing significant sales growth will push the stock higher than the FDA announcement will.

That' just VFC's opinion, though, based on the fact that many investors aren't quite sure what they are buying into right now- a reverse split is still possible and there are questions about the number of outstanding shares out there. From what I've found there are over 770 million, but that is not accurately reflected on many investing web sites or online brokerage houses.

I still contend that BIEL will prove to be a winner, based on a product that I believe could change the face of over the counter pain and swelling treatment, and I am eating up the opportunity to buy this stock for near five cents. If it drops below five, then VFC is backing up the Ford.

Long term, I think we have a winner here. Short term we should expect a lot of volatility, and if you're looking to cover your investment, buy on the dips and sell on any spikes.

However, when she blows, you don't want to be on the sidelines.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Vitamin World

Briefs: AGEN, BDSI, MSFT, YHOO, CVM

AGEN: No big news was released during the conference call on Thursday, but long term shareholders looking to add to their position should take the opportunity to accumulate if the stock drops close to the two dollar level.

At first glance potential investors will look at the call as negative because of the price drop during the day, but the drop was more of the result of day/swing/momentum traders moving on to look for another stock to trade after AGEN, for the most part, issued a 'nothing significant to report'. The drop was on normal volume, however, and nothing, I repeat, nothing has changed with the potential of the company and it's stock, so long term investors should feel comfortable adding to their positions if the stock drops close to two dollars- my price for adding new shares. Additionally, new investors who were looking for an entry point have now found an opportunity to get in.

On the geo-political front, Russia's economy is in much worse shape than ours so it is a curious proposition, to say the least, as to whether or not the Russian government will reimburse any costs for Oncophage treatment. In the long term, however, reimbursement will be icing on the cake, not a necessity for AGEN's survival.

Oncophage? QS-21?

I maintain my stance that AGEN could be the next DNDN.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

optionsXpress

BDSI: Shares of BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) are on the road towards recovery after trading down in the days following the Onsolis approval. The stock closed up nine cents on Thursday with a final trade of $5.60. That's still not close to the price where many investors speculated it would trade after the company received it's first FDA approval, but patience is paramount - the stock will eventually reach it's realistic trading price.

Nothing is a sure thing in the stock market, but right now a spike in BDSI as the Onsolis launch approaches is nearly as sure a thing as you can get. This stock is no longer a speculative story, but a growth story.

BioDelivery has an approved drug that uses a novel new delivery system and unless the company management bungles the operation or shady traders sabotage the stock- big things are ahead for BDSI.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

Health Benefits Direct

MSFT & YHOO: Reports of an Internet search partnership between Yahoo! (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) have created a lot of hype over the past few days, but since the deal will not reach culmination until 2012, VFC says - yawn.

The deal makes some sense for the second and third ranked players in the search engine market, as far as market share is concerned, but it's hard to get excited about something that is nearly three years away.

Microsoft, with no up front payment, got the better end of the deal on this one- especially considering Yahoo! turned down a boatload of money from Microsoft in both partnership and buyout offers over the past year and a half.

As 2012 approaches I'll pay more attention to where Microsoft, Yahoo! and Google stand, but three years is an eternity in stock market years. Anyone making a trade based on this news is acting a bit prematurely, in my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSFT and no position in YHOO.

Microsoft Store

CVM: After an early spike to nearly sixty cents on Thursday, shares of Cel Sci (CVM) settled down to close only two cents up on the day. Trading was heavy, however, over eight times the normal average, and CVM is still a stock that is worth accumulating while it trades for under fifty cents.

Investors with the time and inclination to keep their fingers on the buy/sell trigger have definitely done very well while trading in and out of the stock this year, but the day will come that CVM pops to above one dollar and stays there, in my opinion, and you don't want to be in the sideline when that happens.

That being said, it's time for the company to give a for-real update on the status of Multikine. They need to launch that Phase III trial by late fall or investors are going to start getting very squeamish. If the drug is as good as they say it is, and as good as it has shown in Phase II trials, then something needs to happen soon.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Tea Forte, Inc.

VFC's Take on a Couple of Investor Questions: When to Take Gains and Where to Start With DD?

MOVED TO:  http://vfcsstockhouse.com/blog/article/-vfc-s-take-on-a-couple-of-investor-questions-when-to-take-gains-and-where-to-start-with-dd-

optionsXpress

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

VFC's Take on GenVec (GNVC)

GNVC: I've received a few inquires asking for my opinion obout GenVec (GNVC).

GenVec (GNVC) is a small biopharmaceutical company that is developing treatments for various types of cancers.

The company's lead product candidate is TNFerade which is currently being tested in a Phase III trial for the treatment of pancreatic cancer. TNFerade is also being investigated for use in various other types of cancer. Data presented at the ASCO conference earlier this year showed that TNFerade is safe and effective in prolonging the survival of cancer-stricken patients. The full results are expected to be released in early 2010.

A Phase I/II trial testing the drug's effectiveness in treating head and neck cancer is also ongoing.

Most recently the company has been pushing the advancement of it's vaccine program. A press release issued on Wednesday indicated that the company had received a $600,000 grant from the National Institute of Health (NIH) to support GenVec's malaria vaccine program. VFC's Note: While the grant is encouraging, it's sad - but realistic - to say that $600,000 is chump change when you're talking about early-stage biopharmaceuticals.

The company is also in very early stages of developing a novel Atonal Therapy - a treatment for hearing and balance loss.

Currently the GNVC stock is trading in the mid eighty cent range but I believe it will rise as time draws closer to the release of the Phase III pancreatic cancer trials.

GNVC is, in my opinion, a pretty good speculative pick, but I won't be a buyer. My cancer picks are mostly set with AGEN, ONTY, CVM as my short to mid term picks with PPHM and PCYC as my mid to long term picks. Although I looked at GNVC a few times last year, I decided that I would stick with the above mentioned stock, including DNDN which, at the time, was also in my portfolio.

VFC's Note: CVM should be considered a long term pick, but I believe it will spike to and then remain over a dollar by the fall.

For those looking to get into GNVC, under a dollar is always a good time to buy these types of speculative stocks. Of course, don't buy your entire position in one purchase, stagger your buys and try to average down as much as you can. Also keep in mind that you have until next year to wait for results, so if there are any unexpected spikes without news, take advantage of it and realize some profits - you know the big boys will be doing just that.

GNVC- not a bad speculative choice, but I like AGEN, ONTY, CVM, PPHM and PCYC as my speculative cancer picks better.

However, GNVC is looking better than EPCT right about now, but that could change if Epicept ever announces a marketing and distribution partner for Ceplene in Europe.

Disclosure: No position in GNVC.

Briefs: CRYP, AGEN, BDSI, CVM, MSBT

Wednesday's trading day offered little excitement, but there were a few highlights worth noting:

CRYP: Shares of CrytoLogic Limited (CRYP) jumped to over seven bucks on Wednesday after the company, just days after announcing a licensing deal with totesport.com, announced yet another licensing deal, this time with Centrebet.

According to Wednesday's press release, this licensing agreement brings the total number of existing CryptoLogic licensing deals to 24.

CRYP is currently trading above my BUY mark, since I previously accumulated for below five dollars, but new investors are still getting a pretty good deal by buying in for around seven dollars, in my opinion. Ideally, new investors would want to get in for closer to six dollars, so I would stagger buys at this point in the hopes of averaging down.

This company is in recovery mode and has embarked on a successful (so far) journey towards growth. As I've previously stated, the CRYP stock should respond positively to any legislation that legalizes online gambling in the United States. The current administration is looking to tax anything and everything these days and I'm sure Congress is eyeballing the lucrative tax revenue that could potentially be brought in by taxing online betting.

Barney Frank is currently drafting the legislation that would bring online gambling back to the US.

Keep an eye on CRYP and buy on any dips. As the market recovers and the company continues to sign licensing agreements, I can see a rise to over ten dollars taking place by the fall- especially if the US legislation comes to fruition.

Disclosure: VFC is long CRYP.



AGEN: I've been taking up a lot of board space lately with this stock, but AGEN has already proven to be a big winner and I think shareholders are in for more.

The question just remains when.

The week-long runup came to an end on Wednesday - a day when the entire market, for the most part, experienced a pull back.

Many investors are anticipating news to be released before Thursday's conference call and if news is not released and the conference call is just a financial report, as advertised, with a couple of minor updates - then the stock could see a bit of a sell off back to the two dollar level. On the other hand, the right news could send the stock to the mid threes for good.

In my opinion, the company is not going to release any breathtaking news on Thursday but I am anticipating an announcement that will definitively identify the launch date for Oncophage in Russia. During the last call it was announced that administrative delays were holding up the commercial launch.

The call is scheduled for 11 AM Thursday, so watch early morning trading and add on any dips towards $2.

As I've always said regarding this stock, I believe it is going to pop big at some point, it's just a matter of when. As time goes on and data is measured it's becoming abundantly clear that these cancer vaccines are the real deal.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

PowerScore, Inc.

BDSI: BioDelivery continues to be a strong buy, in my opinion, regardless of the trading volatility that the stock has displayed since the Onsolis approval and today a confidence boost came in the form of an initial BUY rating from Roth Capital.

Still trading in the mid $5s, BDSI is a great long term pick, in my opinion. If you're a fan of the stock, accumulate all you can in this range and hold for the long term, you shouldn't be disappointed.



CVM: Shares of Cel Sci (CVM) traded up over 7% on Wednesday on volume three times the daily average. An article published by Bio Med Reports highlighting Cel Sci and it's L.E.A.P.S. technology was speculated to have triggered the price increase, an increase that extended into after hours trading on Wednesday.

Cel Sci is a company with big potential that has been flying under the radar for some time, aside from a spike to eighty cents earlier this year at the height of 'swine flu' speculative trading when the company released multiple PRs highlighting the potential for it's L.E.A.P.S. technology to be used in treating the swine flu.

While L.E.A.P.S. is loaded with potential in itself, it will be Multikine that proves to be Cel Sci's claim to fame, in my opinion. Multikine is one of the new breed of cancer immunotherapy treatments, this one treating head and neck cancer.

Already proven to be safe and effective in Phase II trials, Phase III trials should commence later this year in the newly constructed Baltimore, Maryland manufacturing facility.

After the spike in volume and price on Wednesday, it will be well worth watching the early trading on Thursday. For some time I've been of the belief that CVM's time trading for under a dollar is limited and it's possible that the stock could soon reclaim it's rightful speculative value at over a buck.

If you're new to the stock, watch the trading patterns; CVM has been known to spike before only to retreat very quickly a few days later- you don't want to end up chasing the stock. Also keep in mind that, according to increased chatter about CVM on various investing message boards, a lot of day/swing/momentum traders are going to be drawn to CVM for the rest of the week and the small investor will have to be on the ball to keep from getting sucked into their traps. Make sure you get what you consider to be fair value for your shares if you sell and buy on the dips.

While you don't want to chase the stock, you also don't want to be on the sidelines when it runs.

If you can get in for under fifty cents, do it- but long term, anything under a buck is going to end up looking like a steal, in my opinion. If it happens to continue trading in the thirty cent range- Merry Christmas.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.

Bake Me  A Wish

MSBT.ob: Another speculative play, MSBT.ob, has been pretty quiet lately as shares of MedaSorb Technologies have hovered between six and seven cents for the better part of July.

While many investors get impatients when a stock goes through a quiet period, that is the time that longer term investors should be accumulating- when attention is down and volume is low.

Usually that means the stock is flying below the radar.

MedaSorb's success or failure will be judged solely on the success or failure of a Phase III trial currently underway in Europe testing the effectiveness of the company's medical device, Cytosorb, in treating Sepsis. If that trial is successful, MedaSorb expects to being bringing in revenue for the product by late 2010.

Additionally, back in May when the swine flu was still garnering a huge number of headlines, the company highlighted the potential of Cytosorb in treating severe flu symptoms as well.

MSBT.ob is a speculative stock that is flying below the radar at this time and is worth accumulating for six cents. It's one of those risk-reward stocks that a small investor could buy thousands of shares for the cost of a night on the town and possibly reap significant gains if the product works.

I plan on accumulating a few more shares while the stock is trading for these prices.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.ob.

Celsius (CSUH) is Still a Speculative Stock - Don't Forget That

According to some recent emails that I've received, I get the impression that some investors are getting a little bit too carried away with the 'technicalities' of the Celsius (CSUH) stock. The Celsius stock is still a speculative investment and will be considered one until the company can demonstrate the ability to survive without having to rely on a third party for financing.

It's important to keep in mind that with speculative stocks comes a large amount of speculation- that is why they call it a 'speculative' investment.

For instance, if you took the investor hype and speculation out of the current equation for CSUH, then, based on the last four quarterly reports, the stock would still be trading for maybe half it's current value- and that is a 'maybe.'

However, being that CSUH is still a speculative play, the real equation is this, for you math majors:

a speculative investment = actual news and numbers + speculation on the part of investors + hype.

When trying to predict the future, which is what you do when you speculate, you need to take all of those factors into consideration when deciding whether to buy or sell your stock. One thing, however, that cannot be over looked is that when you are trading in speculative stocks, you cannot ignore speculation.

For that reason, if you've got no stomach for risk and volatility then you should stay away from speculative stocks. You, as an investor, have to look at the facts, look at the possibile events that could effect the stock price and make a decision as to what you ascertain fair value to be FOR YOU. Once you've done that, find your high limit price and buy on any dips below that price and then try to average down.

Also, long term investors should not be concerned with the day to day price fluctuations of the stock. A big player who wants in could move the stock 20% to the upside in an hour, but when he's done buying it will retreat again. You've got to learn to accept that volatility if you want to dabble in speculative plays.

There are many out there right now that want in on the ground floor of a growing company and since Celsius is still considered to be on the ground floor, investors are buying in now with little concern of whether or not the stock is trading for forty cents or sixty cents. That causes the stock to look overvalued, but these investors are speculating that the stock price will be much, much higher in two years from now, not concerned with the fact that it might be five cents lower tomorrow.

Again, it's up to each individual investor, based on their own DD, to decide what is their fair value for a stock.

In my opinion, a new investor looking to buy now or add to their position of CSUH should buy in with half the amount that they wanted to invest in CSUH with and then try to average down. This they would not be fully invested if the stock dropped (and would be able to add cheaper shares with the other half) but they also wouldn't miss the boat if significant news sent the stock upwards. That's how I do it when a stock is trading for a little bit higher than what I see as fair value.

I'll also throw in my take on the comparison of Celsius to other 'functional beverages' on the market: there is not comparison. Therefor I don't see the point in comparing their stocks either. I'd rather compare CSUH to other speculative stocks than I would the stocks of other beverages that are not 'calorie-burners.'

Because of the 'calorie burning' perspective CSUH is going to draw in a lot more speculation than your ordinary beverage stock. The speculation will lead to large percentage price swings and overvaluation and will also draw in swing/day/momentum traders that will add even more to the volatility. Those factors do not always show up in technical charts. So what you get is a bunch of long term, small shareholders (the little guy) buying on the dips while the swing/momentum/day traders (big boys) play their games.

I continue to be long on CSUH and I continue to emphasize that this stock is still speculative. That means every new or existing long term investor should speculate about where they think this company will be in two to five years from now.

Many believe that Celsius is going to grow significantly during that time frame and this is why people are still trying to get into this stock when it is trading for a price that others consider to be overvalued.

Let's be honest, if you want to crunch numbers and look at the earnings reports of speculative stocks and value those stocks technically, stocks like CSUH and TTNP would be trading for zero.

Remember, when investing in speculative stocks you're going to have to speculate.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

VFC's Take on Lifeline Biotech (LLBO.pk)

I've recieved numerous inquires about this stock, so here's my take:

In short, I purchased a handful of LLBO shares as a 'Just in Case' speculative play.

That being said, I'm not overly confident in this company or it's stock but the potential to realize significant gains is there.

For those new to Lifeline, the company has developed First Warning System, a technology that identifies breast tissue abnormalities and identifies breast cancer earlier than anything else out there with an accuracy rate of 95-100%.

Additionally, according to recent press releases issued by the company, an FDA filing for FWS should take place sometime in the very near future. Patents have been issued for the hardware and patents for the software are pending.

The technology sounds great and the fact that FWS can detect breast cancer a lot earlier and with more accuracy than anything else out there makes LLBO.pk a decent risk-reward play while it is trading for a cent.

However, I don't feel like this stock holds the same amount of potential as BIEL.pk. BioElectronics' products can treat far reaching indications, are safer alternatives to many over the counter medications and, maybe most importantly, are fairly cheap.

On the other hand, FWS is limited to identifying breast cancer and only breast cancer- for now, at least. Not that there isn't a big market for breat cancer detection, but I have a feeling that this treatment is going to be pretty expensive to receive.

The reason why I'm sceptical that this technology will take off has a lot to do with the direction of the health care industry. If nationalized health care does come into play, as the current government desires, this treatment may be deemed too expensive to be covered under a nationalized health care system. In nationalized systems such as those in Europe that ours may be modeled after, the cheapest alternative is usually the preferable alternative - regardless of how well it works.

I've seen enough of nationalized health care systems overseas to know that cutting corners is common and if America goes in that direction FWS could quickly become obsolete.

Don't get me wrong, there will always be a market for something like this, as long as those that can afford to pay for it out of their own pockets are still around, but with the health care industry about to come under the thumb of the federal government, I think FWS is going to be looked at as a luxury, not a necessity.

Now, another variable is that if the industry starts pushing preventive medicine, then the market for FWS opens up significantly. That's why LLBO may be worth the long term risk.

Looking at things realistically, this stock could easily become a ten-bagger. Once the FDA filing takes place and the FDA decision date approaches, LLBO could offer investors very significant gains - if things progress smoothly.

Long term I feel safer in BIEL, but I suggest buying a handful of LLBO shares 'just in case.'

Don't go crazy with this one, though, keep things realistic. LLBO.pk is a highly speculative penny stock that has potential - especially for day traders - but there's still downside potential as well.

Disclosure: VFC is long LLBO.pk.

Champs Sports

Briefs: AGEN, BDSI, CSUH

AGEN: Shares of Antigenics (AGEN) soared over thirty percent on Tuesday before retreating to close the day at $2.99. Volume was over three times the daily average and no significant news was released.

Since there has not been a news release during the run up period, we can only speculate as to what is going on.

In my opinion, one of the following scenarios is taking place:

- The launch of Oncophage in Russia is imminent and the commercial launch will be accompanied by news of Russian government reimbursement,

- Rumors of a buyout or another significant partnership are circulating

- Significant news regarding QS-21 is to be released.

- Something big is brewing in the 'cancer vaccine' market that will positively effect associated companies. Shares of Dendreon (DNDN) and Oncothyreon (ONTY) have also traded with increased volatility lately.

I do not believe that an update on an EMEA approval decision for Oncophage is the reason for the spike; it's still a little bit too early for that.

Whatever the reason for the spike, this run looks like it's for real.

I'm a holder at this point, having accumulated while the stock traded for under a buck and then adding to my position while it traded for around two, but any investor that is still waiting on the sideline should be quick to grab a position in this stock. I wouldn't go all-in at this point, but I'd go in half of what you expect to put in AGEN and then wait to see if there is any sort of a pullback.

If a pullback takes place then average down; if the stock continues to rise, add at your own discretion depending on what, if any, news is released that would warrant a continued rise in price.

I've long considered AGEN to be a possible candidate to become the next DNDN and Tuesday's rise in price could just be a taste of things to come.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.



BDSI: On Monday I called it awfully suspicious that Adam Feuerstein decided to weigh in on BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) and Tuesday's trading action, after the Feuerstein piece, raises my eyebrows even more.

Somehow, in my opinion - and based on Adam's previous just as shady antics, he is involved with the mess that Elliot Associates is making of the post-Onsolis-approval BDSI stock.

For investors that are quickly losing patience, I maintain my position that BDSI is a solid Hold, if not buy, at these levels and I will certainly buy if it drops below five dollars.

With the unpredictability of the stock of late, I will not venture to say when I think the stock will bounce back but I will say that it's only a matter of time before it does.

For new investors looking to get in, buy now while the stock is dropping. As the time approaches for an Onsolis launch later this year the stock price should recover.

For long time holders of BDSI - have patience.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.



CSUH.ob: Shares of Celsius Holdings (CSUH.ob) spiked to over sixty sense during intra-day trading on Tuesday with the largest spike coming at around 1 PM. The stock retreated somewhat to close up ten percent on the day at fifty five cents. Volume on the day was above average with over 1.7 million shares being traded.

It's possible that a new investor was taking a position in the stock and that drove the price up, followed by some profit taking by traders that brought it back down.

However, speculation has been high regarding CSUH and CEO Steve Haley added to investor enthusiasm by providing a teaser for an upcoming celebrity endorsement during a conference call Tuesday with Investor Nation. Regarding the possible celebrity endorsement, Mr. Haley told investors, "I think you will be pleased."

The Celsius brand and associated products are still gaining traction in the market and the stock is still trading for a price that, in years to come, should be looked back on as 'the ground floor.'

Still volatile and speculative, investors still sitting on the sidelines should start accumulating shares of CSUH and buy on any dips.

Significant news could launch this stock to over a dollar in no time, in my opinion- whether a share price that high is justified or not. That's just how speculative plays trade.

In my opinion, it won't be more than two or three more quarters before CSUH becomes a solid growth stock instead of a speculative growth stock.

For my own investment purposes, I consider it a solid growth play already, but I've been in the stock a while now and have already seen significant returns; I'm not quite ready to drop the speculative label from CSUH until we see earnings-neutral.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

VFC's Take on Celsius (CSUH.ob) CEO Steve Haley's Conference Call on Investment Nation

The CEO of Celsius Holdings (CSUH.ob) Steve Haley, in keeping with his pledge to keep investors as informed as possible, conducted a conference call on Tuesday evening with Investment Nation.

Steve, as always, was straight forward, precise and gave investors an honest insight into the growth aspirations of the company.

Before digesting the meat and potatoes of the call, I'll address two issues that came up around the time the company released the $1.2 million 2Q earnings.

First, in regards to the large overseas order during the second quarter of 2008 that was intended for distribution in Lebanon, Mr. Haley stated that the large size of last year's order has kept the distributor well supplied, to date. I've speculated before that, on the brink of a civil war as was Lebanon last year, people would be more concerned about dodging bullets than burning calories, so sales were undoubtedly effected by the geo-political situation of the time. That being said, Steve added that the distributor is starting to run short on stock and he speculated that a re-order may be on the way.

Secondly, regarding dilution and the amount of authorized shares that will be on the books pretty soon, Steve stated that share dilution is a probability, but dilution will be a necessary event in order to grow the company. Good answer. It takes money to make money and any action that grows the Celsius brand and the size of the company can only be viewed as a positive- if those actions are undertaken by sound management; to date, Steve Haley and the DeSantis team have demonstrated that they are, in fact, sound management.

As for future growth and business operations, things are looking bright, in my opinion.

The most promising statement that came from Mr. Haley on Tuesday was his proclamation that, although he could not announce anything during the call, they are close to announcing a significant celebrity endorsement. In his words, he told investors, "I think you will be pleased."

I've said over and over again that the wild card with this stock is a celebrity endorsement and it looks like we've got one coming. I'll reserve judgement on how significantly the endorsement will effect the share price until I see who it is. Richard Simmons, for example, would do more to drive people away from Celsius than, say Oprah or even Katie Holmes.

Mr. Haley also added that announcements of increased distribution will be forthcoming throughout the next couple of quarters. Without so much as Steve saying it, I got the impression that there will be a couple of more national chains on tap other than 7-Eleven.

Other positive notes to take away from the call:

- an increased variety of powdered packet flavors will soon be available.

- additional "refreshment" beverages are on the way. Steve mentioned shakes and iced coffee, but those were examples of possibilities, not promises.

- demand is growing such that product stock was exhausted at one point.

In regards to profits, Steve emphasized that the company is not looking at profitability anytime during this calendar year. His reasoning was that they would rather sacrifice profits in favor of growing the company. Again, good answer; and again, it takes money to make money.

Patient investors will sit back and watch the company grow. Traders want the quick payday.

VFC's Take on Pending Profits: If potential investors are waiting to see a profit on the balance sheet before investing, then they shouldn't be involved in speculative stocks to begin with. This stock will most likely be trading for well over a buck before the company records a profit and the time to accumulate is when you get in on the ground floor. In my opinion, we're still on the ground floor with this stock, but time may be growing short to get in at these levels.

Nothing has changed in my opinion that we have a winner with CSUH.ob and I look forward to the next few quarters of growth.

Again, I emphasize that CSUH is still speculative for the time being; but, if the significant growth continues, by the time it is not a speculative stock you'll be buying for a much higher price.

Buy the dips if you're just now getting in.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

VFC's Take on the BioElectronics (BIEL.pk) Conference Call

Shares of BioElectronics (BIEL.pk) shot up to a high of .095 on Tuesday morning trading before a scheduled conference call at 11AM. The call did not provide the stock price boost that was expected by many short term traders and the stock closed the day down by over 22%.

Before analyzing the information released in the call, let's first look at the action of the stock.

Many investors and traders were hoping that the company was going to release news of an FDA approval either during or just before the call- hence the pretty significant run up over the past week.

Investors realized early that approval news was not going to be announced because if it were, a press release would most likely have been issued just before the commencement of the conference call. When the traders realized that nothing discussed in the conference call was going to cause a significant short term spike in price they bailed to look for another quick money making opportunity. Additionally, those who were sitting on huge gains over the past few weeks undoubtedly decided to realize some profits when they saw the stock hit nine cents. Those factors both contributed to the 22% drop in price on Tuesday, in my opinion.

However, those invested for the long term should be unfazed by the trading action on Tuesday and should, if in fact invested for the long term, take advantage of the drop and add more shares.

While the conference call did not contain news that would immediately impact the stock price, it did reinforce the long term prospects of growth for the company.

Most significant, in my opinion, is the fact that the most recently concluded trial
that measured the effectiveness of Actipatch in the treatment of foot and ankle plantar fasciitis produced outstanding results- including a 100% mark for safety, the only real issue that I saw as a potential roadblock for the product.

In my opinion, and in the opinions of a growing number of medical providers it seems, the fact that the BioElectronics products are safe and effective makes them a no-brainer alternative to narcotics, acetaminophen and ibuprofen- all products that have recently come under scrutiny by the FDA.

Additionally, according to BioElectronics rep Joe Noel, the success of this trial will enable the company to file another approval application with the FDA- only this time the application will cover all muscular-skeletal indications in one shot. That will be a very significant approval, if granted.

Aside from the information presented in the conference call, a few doctors and 'fans of Actipatch' gave their own personal success stories and one person outlined her own projections for the potential monetary value of BioElectronics' products. All good information, but what really matters at this point is the FDA approvals and international growth.

I retain my position that the potential of this company and it's products are huge. Long term investors need to ignore the daily price action of the stock and take any opportunity to accumulate on the dips. That being said, I wouldn't blame anyone for trying to trade in and out of the stock a little bit in order to both realize some profits and take back an initial investment in order to 'play on house money.'

I almost sold some shares today when I saw the nine cent price, but as much as a fan I am of realizing profits, I also recognize that this stock could shoot up in a moments notice (see: TTNP). If that happens, you don't want to be standing on the sidelines.

My belief in the fact that we have a winner with BIEL stems mostly from the potential of the products but, from reading recent press releases and listening to the conference call, I also get the impression that the company is serious about being a position to trade on a big board when the time is right. That will be very significant later on down the road as the potential of the products are being realized.

For now, long term investors should not worry about the short term action of the stock- except to add on any dips. If a reverse split does occur, as has been speculated, then I will also be adding on any drop after that event.

However, don't be afraid to realize some profits along the way because even though the BioElectronics story looks good, nothing is a sure bet in the market.

Remember, being a low-priced pink sheet stock, BIEL is trading as a 'trader's play'. Take advantage of that action and buy on the dips.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.pk.



Sun Care Products at AmericaRx.com

Monday, July 27, 2009

Briefs: CPST, CRYP

CPST: Shares of Capstone Turbine (CPST) closed the day on Monday over a dollar after an increase in stock price of more than 10% last Friday led me to believe that news may be released on Monday morning.

News was in fact released on Monday morning, but news that the company had found a distributor in three mid-western states was not exactly the significant news that I though would lead to the spike to over a buck. Recent reports from the company continue to indicate that the company is growing and that their energy efficient microturbines hold significant potential as the country goes green, but it will take a move towards profitability on the earnings front for the stock to make a big move up.

The more probable reason for the recent climb to $1, in my opinion, is that as the stock market continues to recover CPST may just be returning to it's valuation from before the market crash last year.

Whatever the reason, I still call CPST a good 'green' buy while it trades for a dollar, although I bought enough for under a buck that I'm a holder from this point on.

Long term, as I've said before, I like the potential of this company and it's stock.

Disclosure: VFC is long CPST.

Veracity Credit Consultants

CRYP: Shares of CryptoLogic Limited (CRYP) jumped 10% on Monday after the company announced a licensing deal with the UK's fourth-largest bookmaker, totesport.com.

According to the press release, "CryptoLogic has licensed at least six of its most popular branded and unbranded slot games for inclusion on [the tote.com] website."
This most recent deal demonstrates the growth of the company and it's potential of returning to profitability in the near future.

However, the reason that I've been a slow accumulator of this stock is because the US Congress is looking to legalize on-line gambling in the United States again, and if that happens then CRYP could be a huge benefactor of that legislation.

CRYP traded as high as nearly thirty dollars before the gambling ban was put into effect in the US and it's likely that the company could return to the twenty dollar level as the market recovers, licensing agreements grow and gambling returns to on-line screens (legally) in the US.

I continue to like CRYP as a mid-to-long term play.

Disclosure: VFC is long CRYP.

Apartments.com Acquire Renters (Classified Ventures)

Briefs: INSM, BDSI, TTNP, NVD

INSM: After having had a full day for Monday morning's Insmed (INSM) press release to marinate in my head, I've changed my take- not much but just a little.

I have not changed my position that, based on recent events - including the fact that there has yet to be a CEO named to replace Dr. Allan - I'm still under the impression that the company is going to be sold; and, given the time frame it will take an acquiring company to produce additional supplies of IPLEXm I have a feeling that a sale will come sooner rather than later.

That being said, nothing is a sure thing in the stock market and I think that my decision to call INSM a straight hold this morning may have been a bit premature- to some extent.

For those shareholders that are sitting on gains right now, and there are plenty that bought INSM for under sixty cents earlier in the year, now would be a good time to sell some shares and realize some profits.

For those that bought at around $2 when the potential of IPLEX and the INSM stock looked a whole lot better than it does now, I'd still suggest taking a little bit off the table, but I also suggest holding some shares because INSM still has quite a bit of potential for the long term. It is a personal risk call and every investor should make that decision based on solid DD.

For VFC, I'm going to hold through the week and see what happens. I was surprised that the stock stayed at a buck on Monday and that either means that the stock is being controlled to remain at that price or it is simply a head fake and the stock will drop later this week.

I see two courses of action taking place:

1. A sale of the company where I see the price being $1.50-$2 per share or

2. Insmed buys into another drug which will keep the share price hovering around a buck for a while, in my opinion.

That is all just my own speculation.

However, the fact that the IPLEX news came on Monday morning could mean that more news is to follow.

I'll be closely watching the trading action of the stock this week and I may take some profits off the table if there is no news of a buyout by Friday.

Disclosure: VFC is long INSM.

MedRectStatic300x250

BDSI: I still believe that shares of BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) are a good buy at current levels but it did raise my eyebrows today when I saw that Adam Feuerstein of 'The Street dot com' wrote a positive write up for the company and it's stock.

In my opinion, Feuerstein always has an agenda - one that is too often not in line with making money for the small investor - and his 'go-ahead' to buy BDSI really brings me to question his motives on taking a positive stance on this company.

It's quite possible that he's tired of taking heat for being a lackey to the short-sellers and intends to begin looking at companies and stocks objectively. However, it's also quite possible that he had some buddies that shorted the stock at near eight bucks, have since covered, and then gave him the green light to write realistically instead of negatively - something Adam is not used to doing.

Whatever the case may be, BDSI has acted awfully crazy over the past couple of months and it came as no surprise to me to see that Feuerstein was involved. It really raises the questions as to what was going on behind the scenes since early June.

In his article, Adam F. blames the action on traders playing the 'biotech approval spikes.' Interesting. I wonder if he threw that out there to throw people off the trail of what was really going on.

Just some VFC speculation.

As for BDSI, I still call it a good buy at these levels, but Adam F going positive on the stock makes my 'Spidey Sense' tingle.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

Get a Toll Free Number for your Business

TTNP.pk: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals soared to as high as $1.75 on Monday before closing at $1.63 for the day.

Mondays action on high volume (over one million shares traded) indicates that last week's run on low volume actually has legs.

It could be that the stock is just 'catching up' with Vanda (VNDA) since the Fanapt approval or it could be that a sale or partnership deal is imminent. It is also possible that Probuphine news could be released at any time.

That being said, I took the opportunity to sell about 1/6 of my shares today for $1.70- shares that I had purchased for between three and four cents. That's not to say that I don't think that TTNP will be trading for over two bucks in the near term, I just like realizing those kind of profits when I can. I'll be a seller again at two dollars, unless the stock screams through that mark, but I do intend to hold some shares for the long term.

In all honesty, those looking quick and huge gains from TTNP may have missed the boat since the stock is no longer trading at the $1 level. That being said, if the Fanapt launch goes smoothly and if positive Probuphine news gets released, I can see TTNP trading for as high as $5 later this year- especially if the company takes the necessary measures to move the stock to a major exchange from the pink sheets.

2009, for all intents and purposes, looks like it will be the year of the Titan.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.

FreeCreditReport.com

NVD: VFC finally gave in and sold completely out of my position in Novadel (NVD). The company was making no progress on a partnership for it's two approved drugs and although news may be released sometime that will bring the stock price to over a dollar, I couldn't stand the wait any longer.

With my NVD money, which came at a slight loss for me, I put money into three stocks trading for roughly a dollar but hold a lot more potential than NVD, in my opinion.

Those stocks are, PPHM, PCYC and KERX.

I think the money was well spent in those three and I won't miss NVD at all.

Disclosure: VFC has no position in NVD and is long PPHM, PCYC and KERX.

Lavalife.com

Insmed's (INSM) Monday Morning Press Release

INSM: Insmed issued an early morning press release on Monday stating that the company, for the most part, will cease all operations regarding the advancement of IPLEX. The PR was accompanied by a trading halt that was in effect for about half an hour.

According to the report, the company will utilize the remainder of the existing stockpile of IPLEX to treat patients who are currently receiving the treatment.

For all intents and purposes, the advancement of IPLEX by INSMED is dead in the water, for the time being.

This news, which will most likely be perceived as terrible by investors, is not the typical news that you would see released on a Monday morning- a time usually reserved for the release of good news.

However, in VFC's opinion, I believe that the next piece of significant news from the company will be regarding a sale.

I don't believe that a partnership is in the works, this will be an outright sale and, judging by the Monday morning press release, I speculate that we will hear news soon.

The disappointing results from the MMD trial undoubtedly has knocked off significant value from any sale price and it was probably those last minute details that needed to be worked out before the sale could be finalized and a news release issued.

From an investors stand point, HOLD your shares and wait for news. Today's PR is not the end of the cycle, in my opinion.

That being said, if further news is not pending, this PR will kill the share price.

Disclosure: VFC is long INSM.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Briefs: BIEL, IGXT

BIEL.pk: After shares of BioElectronics Corp. (BIEL.pk) more than doubled over two weeks time, the company will be holding a conference call on Tuesday morning to discuss the results of a recently completed clinical trial and to also provide shareholders with an update on the status of some FDA filings.

I expect the stock price of BIEL to continue to inch upwards on Monday as speculation grows as to what, if any, significant news will be released in accordance with Tuesday's conference call.

The BioElectronics Corp. products have the potential to steal quite a bit of market share from over the counter medications such as Tylenol and that is why I am such a believer in the stock. For less than ten cents you can't go wrong when investing in a product that has the potential to be a big seller on a world wide basis.

Some investors are concerned about the possibility of a reverse split but, in my opinion, it's a risky proposition to not buy now because if a big move to the upside takes place, you want to be in before it happens. The stock is already a double in just weeks.

If a reverse split does take place and the stock price subsequently drops, then that would just provide an opportunity to buy for even better prices than are currently available.

Quite simply, in VFC's opinion, a market cap of eleven million does not do justice to the potential of the BioElectronics products.

I'd love a dip to five cents again to pick up more shares, but I see myself as a buyer all the way to ten cents.

Keep an ear on Tuesday's conference call.

Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.

Wirefly AT&T Waived Activation Event: Free Phones + Free Activation for new accounts & upgrades. Hurry - Ends midnight Aug. 3

IGXT.ob: Here's another sub-$1 pharmaceutical related stock with potential. I received an email from asking about my take on IGXT.ob, so here goes:

IntelGenx Corp is the maker of a multi-layered drug delivery system and has recently filed it's first New Drug Application with the FDA for CPI-300, an anti-depressant.

With the heat coming down on prescription drug abuse these days, I'm a fan of companies that are developing technologies that control the release of drugs into the body and IntelGenx is doing just that.

Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP), with it's delivery system that is used in Probuphine, is also developing such technology, and since it is an implant- it may be more effective.

In addition to CPI-300, IntelGenx also has various other drugs in the pipeline, some partnered, some not, but most are still in the very early stages of development.

Since I like to stagger my investments as far as time frame of when I think they will pay off, I will add IGXT as a mid to long term investment and slowly accumulate shares.

I expect the share price to inch upwards to over a dollar as the stock draws speculative interest in anticipation of an FDA decision and if that does happen I may sell some shares at that point in order to reduce my exposure to risk in this stock.

The reason it will be a good idea to sell on any spikes heading into the FDA decision is because of the fact that there is nothing imminent in the pipeline that would prop up the IGXT stock price should CPI-300 not garner approval.

As a speculative play, IGXT is not my favorite, but it's worth the risk of a few shares.

Disclosure: VFC currently has no position in IGXT.ob.

Netflix, Inc.

Briefs: CPST, ONTY, HEB

CPST: It may be worth keeping an eye on shares of Capstone Turbine (CPST) on Monday morning after the stock rose 10% on Friday while trading on just below average volume.

The initial spike in price came at about 11AM on Friday and maintained the higher price for the duration of the day. The action indicates that someone may have been tipped off that the company has a significant press release on standby and ready for a Monday morning launch.

It's been my opinion for some time that the potential of Capstone's energy efficient microturbines should have the stock trading for above a dollar even though the company has yet to turn a profit.

With that being said I think that anything below a dollar is a good price to buy CPST, even while the stock is still a speculative play until the company can turn their technology into a profitable business.

Friday's price action could just be a false alarm as the stock has become more volatile over the last couple of months, but it could also be an indicator that time may be getting short for those looking to buy this stock for under a buck.

I'm an accumulator of CPST under a dollar, but I'll hold when it goes above that mark.

Disclosure: VFC is long CPST.

Boxed-Gifts.Com

ONTY: Shares of Oncothyreon (ONTY) are once again trading near the four dollar level as the company's partner, Merck KGaA, advances Stimuvax through multiple late stage trials.

Stimuvax, a cancer immunotherapy treatment- better known as a cancer vaccine- is currently being tested for effectiveness in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer and breast cancer.

I've labeled the company as one of a few that could very well prove to be the next Dendreon (DNDN) and although I'd rather buy the stock for closer to three dollars, I believe that anything below five dollars is well worth the risk of the speculative investment that could potentially take off on any good news from the ongoing trials.

Even without significant news being released, shares of Oncothyreon could move higher depending on what goes on with other cancer vaccine companies such as Dendreon (DNDN) or Antigenics (AGEN).

Dendreon, as most already know, is the company closest to bringing a cancer vaccine to market in the US after it's flagship prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, proved successful at extending the lives of patients in a Phase III trial while Antigenics has received approval for it's kidney cancer vaccine Oncophage in Russia and awaits approval in Europe. Approval news from either should propel all cancer vaccine stocks higher as it would be an indication that the immunotherapy treatment is becoming generally accepted in the medical community.

Oncothyreon will not approach Dendreon's 2.5 billion market cap any time soon, but it could approach Antigenics' market cap of roughly 150 million- a double from current levels.

With Dendreon already popped, AGEN and ONTY are my big two cancer vaccine stocks that I think are most primed for a pop and accumulation at current levels is, in my opinion, a wise move for those bullish on the immunotherapy treatment.

As DNDN has already demonstrated, when these stock move, they can move big and you want to be in before the run rather than trying to chase the run after it has already commenced.

Disclosure: VFC is long ONTY, AGEN and has no remaining position in DNDN.

FromYouFlowers.com

HEB: I've gotten a few emails from readers looking for my take on Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) so I decided to comment on the comment and the stock this week. I'm not a shareholder of HEB and I don't plan on becoming one, although I won't deny that the stock does hold some potential.

First of all, I've already missed out on a big run from HEB and I don't necessarily like buying into new stocks after they've already had a big run- I call that chasing and I don't like chasing stocks. If I'm already a shareholder of a stock that goes on a big run (AGEN, for example), then I may add at the higher prices (AGEN) because I've already made money from the stock and I already have a pre-decided exit strategy from the investment.

Additionally, I think that HEB is trading on a lot of flu vaccine hype right now, adding to the recent volatility of the stock.

However, the stock does hold significant potential. If the FDA approves Ampligen for chronic fatigue syndrome (I'm not sure , an even that I see as likely, then another spike in price would be warranted, but the approval is no slam dunk. It's also not a slam dunk that Hemishperx will benefit from all the flu-vaccine money get thrown around right now.

In short, VFC's take is pretty simple:

HEB is a risky proposition right now (as are all small biopharma companies) but it also holds a great deal of potential. For me, personally, I like finding these things while they are trading for below a dollar, not after they have already had a big run. The risk-reward profile for HEB, while trading for over two bucks, is not tempting right now for me because if Ampligen does not gain that approval and the flu potential collapses, the short-term could get pretty ugly for the stock.

However, if it drops to below two dollars then I may re-evaluate. For right now I am going to pass on HEB.

If it pops to five tomorrow then you can all make fun of me.

Disclosure: VFC has no position in HEB.

HANDBAGS at FORZIERI.COM

General Electric (GE)- A Beat Up Company and a Beat Up Stock; but VFC is Buying

GE: Shares of General Electric (GE) continue to trade for just eleven dollars after the most recent quarterly report showed that the company's profits got hammered to the tune of a nearly 50% cut in the most recent earnings report.

The huge loss in profit can be attributed to a lackluster performance by the GE financial services division, as expected, and a general lack of demand for GE products as a result of the recession. It's also worth mentioning that the NBC/Universal division has become a significant drag on the company.

As a small investor, I always like an opportunity to jump on a stock when no one else likes it because if no one else likes it, then the stock is usually trading for a discount. Big money can profit quickly by moving into stocks as they are ready to make a move to the upside (or downside in cases of short positions), but small money- not able to afford to miss big percentage returns that result from the beginning of a run- needs to buy for a discount and then wait in order to see significant returns.

In other words, the job of the small investor is to find stocks with potential that are either undervalued or flying under the radar and buy into them before a run starts.

It could take months, or sometimes years, for the returns to arrive by using this style of investing, but the returns - if you find a good one - are usually pretty significant and well worth the wait(CSUH, DNDN, TTNP, etc.).

In my opinion, GE is a stock with potential that is trading cheap because the recession has this company's growth going in reverse. Big money (aside for Warren Buffet) won't play with this stock right now because there is money to made elsewhere, but that means that it's time for the small investor to step in and buy.

The big arguement against General Electric right now, aside from the problems at the financial division, is that every aspect of the company will suffer dramatically during the recession because it's products touch every facet of the economy. Simply put, people aren't spending money on anything right now and GE is involved with just about everything that people would spend money on.

The counter-arguement is that when an economic recovery takes place, General Electric- since it was hit worst than most companies during the recession- will be in a prime position to benefit more than most companies because of the same logic- GE products touch every facet of the economy and when people start spending money again, GE stands to return to booming profits.

A complete turnaround will not be so cut and dry, however.

The financial arm is still in the pits and as long as the economy is in recession, there may be no apparent end in sight. Although CEO Jeff Immelt declared that GE Capital will be profitable this year- an encouraging sign to say the least- I'll believe it when I see it as bad loans continue to be written off.

Additionally, the NBC/Universal division of the company has lost nearly half of it's value while under GE stewardship. The reason why no one watches NBC anymore, and therefor has the network losing advertising revenue, is because the network puts personal politics and opinions before quality programming. It's that simple.

If the 'Today' show or the hosts at MSNBC would just report the news instead of telling it with a political spin, the ratings would rise again; that is if the NBC name for credibility is not already damaged beyond repair.

GE would be better off at this point by selling NBC/Universal and swallowing the loss. It's like writing off bad debt- take the loss, regain your footing and move on. Otherwise GE will be pouring money into the sinking ship that is NBC- unlike the Titanic, however, no one will be watching the ship at NBC sink.

Amid all the negatives, General Electric still has a lot playing in it's favor; cutting edge electrical grids that could shape the future of delivering electricity around the world, a slew of government contracts coming in - including a $3 billion order from Iraq for gas turbines - and a long list of products that, as I said before, touch every facet of the global economy.

The worst may not be over yet for General Electric, especially if the recession continues for longer than expected, but I'm a buyer while the stock and the company are beat up.

I'm not expecting returns this year, or even next year, rather I'm accumulating GE in my Roth IRA.

Current bad times aside, I'm willing to bet that General Electric is going to be around for a long time and at these prices, I think that bet is worth it.

Disclosure: VFC is long GE.

Camping World

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Saturday, July 25, 2009

Briefs: F, CSUH, TTNP

F: Congratulations to shareholders of Ford Motor Company (F), who saw the value of their shares spike to over seven bucks after the company reported second quarter profits of $2.3 billion. That was nifty news for the one 'Big Three' American auto maker that did not go asking the government for a bailout.

I don't own any shares of F, but if I was a shareholder, I'd be selling while the price was near seven dollars- unless I had a long term outlook with the stock in which case I would hold. But I wouldn't be buying right now.

The reason that Ford posted a profit was because of one-time 'special items', mainly a debt reduction plan, and not because of a recovery in business operations. Ford is undoubtedly on the right track towards profitability- with operating expenses dropping- and the company predicts the break-even point for North American operations to come in 2011.

Shareholders of F have enjoyed a nice ride this year that started when the stock traded for under two dollars, but in my opinion, the upside is minimal from this point moving forward as the success of the American auto makers depends largely on an economy that hasn't yet turned the corner.

Long term, however, Ford could be a good pick, but I think there are other places to look right now that will offer higher short-to mid term gains than F.

I'm a fan of the Ford product (VFC drives a Ford) but I'm still not a fan of a recovery in the auto market just yet. There's been too many years of poor management vision and abuse by the UAW for the auto makers to be looked at as a quick recovery story.

Disclosure: VFC has no position in F.

Academic Discounts Club

CSUH: Shares of Celsius Holdings (CSUH) recovered from Thursday's more than twenty percent drop in price to close trading on Friday at fifty cents.

The $1.2 million in revenue reported for the second quarter came as a disappointment to many who expected the revenue mark to reach at least the $1.5 million mark that the company had earlier offered as guidance.

That being said, investors can hardly look at the revenue growth that this company has booked quarter-over-quarter as a disappointment.

As reported in a company press release last week, some new customers did not place their first orders in Q2 as expected and those numbers should now show up in Q3- in addition to the revenue created by the recently announced 7-11 deal.

Celsius is still a growing story and those that were waiting for a good entry point certainly got it late last week as the stock price dropped to under fifty cents.

As I've always said, a celebrity endorsement is the wild card with this company- but, in my opinion, the celebrity endorsement should come from someone with a little bit more influence than Katie Holmes, whose alleged use of the Celsius product is stirring some buzz again.



I'm still very positive on the CSUH stock and the Celsius product and I'm glad that this recent pull back has allowed new investors to get in at a decent entry point. In fact, VFC might even add some more shares if it hangs around forty to fifty cents for too long.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.



TTNP.pk: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP) closed the week at $1.42 after another seven percent rise on Friday.

Speculation of a Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) partnership or buyout has carried over to Titan since Titan is due to receive 8-10% royalty on sales of Fanapt, Vanda's recently approved schizophrenia drug.

Last week's rise in TTNP share price was not on overwhelming volume so trading on Monday will be key to see if the recent rally has legs, in my opinion. For those looking to get in now, I'd wait to see how the stock opens the trading week on Monday because chances are just as good of a pullback as they are for a run- barring the release of any news.

While still a risky play, TTNP has the chance to record explosive gains if favorable news comes regarding Probuphine, Vanda's Fanapt partnership, patent extensions for either drug or a move to a major exchange for the Titan stock.

Addtionally, I like Titan's delivery system used in Probuphine even more with all the heat coming down on prescription drug abuse since Michael Jackson's drug dealers- um, I mean Doctors- have brought the subject to forefront once again.

Although TTNP has already risen this year from below five cents, there's still a lot of potential loaded into this stock.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.

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