Monday, November 9, 2009

CSUH: Third Quarter Results Are In for Celsius Holdings

On Friday evening a press release was issued by Celsius Holdings announcing third quarter results. The Friday evening PR was followed by a Monday morning filing of the full Quarterly Report. Because of the timing of the filings - before Tuesday's scheduled conference call - I am inclined to believe that investors will hear about a significant distribution deal that will offset the third quarter numbers that came in below the expectations of many investors.

The $1.3 million of reported revenue was 208% higher than the revenue generated in the third quarter of 2008 and was 12% higher when compared to quarter two of this year. The net loss increased to $2.7 million over the $1.8 million reported for the same time period last year, due mainly to the significant increase in advertising expenses.

The $1.3, while still a demonstration of growth, came in below my own expectations; I had previously stated that I thought $2 million would have been a great quarter, but with a full month of television advertising in the books, I realistically believed that the bottom end of my revenue projection would fall into the $1.5 million range.

However, with a boom in distributorship underway - being supported by a national ad campaign - it's still way too early to become sceptical of the company's ability to grow.

It's become clear, according to recent comments by the CEO of Celsius Holdings Steve Haley, that distribution will be in full effect by March of next year, and it is at that time that the company needs to be on the full upswing in terms of revenue growth - in my opinion. It's crunch time now for Celsius Holdings, because the expenses of the advertising campaign are increasing, and if Celsius is going to gain a strong foothold in the market, now is the time that it is going to happen.

As the leader of the functional beverage market, while holding the claim as the world's first calorie burning beverage, and being supported by numerous clinical studies that demonstrate the benefits of drinking Celsius in conjunction with an exercise routine - I'm confident that the product will gain the desired market foothold.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock dip a bit after the news of the third quarter results, because many investors expected higher, but I'll be using that as a buyin opportunity if the drop is significant enough. However, I believe we'll see additional news that may either lead to support of the current stock price or even spark a mini run.

I'll continue to stand by my own estimations that the first half of 2010 should be a stellar one for Celsius Holdings and shareholders of the company. The shareholders who are patient will be well rewarded, in my opinion.

While my expectations are positive, I also acknowledge that with costs up and advertising exposure in full swing, it's crunch time for the company and the product. If the significant growth that many have predicted is going to occur, it'll be the next few quarters that we start seeing that boom in growth.

For now, I'm expecting additional distribution news to continue hittin the wires.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

5 COMMENTS:

Anonymous said...

Speaking of beverage holding companies, how does DKAM look on your smell test? I think it is oversold right now and presents an opportunity for a short-mid term hit. They have celebrity names on board, Trump, Kid Rock, etc, and have secured financing for distribution and operations.

scottmba09 said...

I was very disappointed with the 10k. Not because of the revenue numbers, but more so with the language inside. Lots of distribution has come on line so late as to not be reflected in the 10k obviously, and even more in October. But that is not the real problem.

When you read between the lines, this company needs cash, and a lot of it. The balance sheet is running on empty. So what do they do? Let's hand some money to our old pal Carl De Santis and dilute us. This is a wealth transfer of criminal proportions in my opinion.

Here is how the magic hat works. They get 6.5 mm in loan money for 65mm in stock. Now, this would be palatable if it weren't for the terms of the deal. The shares are convertible immediately and at the lower of .40 or market. You do the math. At essentially .10 (6.5 loan/65 shares) per share he gets to dilute us right down.

Now, all they had to do was put in a reasonable time frame to conversion and allow Celsius to be able to buy them back and retire them. But this is not the case. this is the wording in the registration filing: "The “Conversion Price” shall be: (A) from September 8, 2009 through and including December 31, 2011, equal to the lesser of (i) $0.40 per share, or (ii) the Market Price".

By rule they have to file for 120% of this crime in additional shares. So the shelf statement is for 167 mm shares. So now we are facing over 100% dilution. What effect does this have on share price?

Well, to justify the current .36 on 10x earnings, they have to make 11 mm in net income. That means top line will probably have to be 40 mm. This is a long time coming, and maybe never.

I love the product, so this is a real bummer. But this is purely disingenuous in my opinion. They could have come to us for market value cash instead of handing our hard earned cash straight to CDS. This $6.5 million could have been earned in a dilution of only 18 million shares! 6.5 mm / .36 = 18 mm shares.

Scott

scottmba09 said...

By the way VFC, here's some payback for your hard work. I've never seen a valuation this out of whack. Check out PGNE. This should be trading over $2 at current production rates. Recently uplisted to fully reporting pink sheets.

VFC said...

Thanks, Scott, Good Stuff.

VFC

Len said...

VFC,

Take a look.... SNGX

Look at results of last test, specifically the 80 day target. Then look at the FDA approved requirements for the Phase III at 80 days. A lot of shares, but considering the pipeline and potential I think $2.00 is realistic if the FDA approves their application. What do you think?

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