It's hard not to imagine a pullback after a run like that, but with a market cap of still under twenty million, I think that there is still more room for an additional speculative move to the upside based on the potential of the company's treatment for sever sepsis, Cytosorb, which is nearing the conclusion of a European trial.
A run to a dollar is plausible, in my opinion, as it gets closer to trial-results time, but I also suggest that investors who are holding from under ten take a little bit of profit on the way up; as AGEN re-iterated on Wednesday, nothing is a sure thing in the stock market.
Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.
SPNG: Shares of SpongeTech doubled on Wednesday after the company released news that it has partnered with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
On the surface, news of the sponsorship deal could be looked at as just another sports deal for a company on the brink, but more significant to me is that this announcement may indicate that SpongeTech is alive and kicking and not destined for disaster as many are predicting these days.
Just my speculation, but regardless of whether the deal was set to be announced already or not, I don't think that the Cavs - let alone the SEC - would have let this release go out unless SpongeTech provided some evidence that they are not the sham that so many are now saying they are. That's just my opinion.
Although tempted, i did not sell any of the shares that I purchased on the cheap during Tuesday's trading; I'm giving this one a chance until we hear something regarding the re-audited financials.
That being said, if the stock approaches ten cents again, I'll be taking some profit off the table.
Disclosure: VFC is long SPNG.
BDSI: Shares of BioDelivery traded down by nearly seven percent on Wednesday to close the day at $4.53 - a price that I still consider a good one to buy for those with a long term outlook.
The recently approved Onsolis is either about to launch, or already has launched - according to recent press releases - and as sales royalties start to roll in, BDSI should start trading to the upside.
I like BDSI as a long term growth pick, now that the company has an approved drug on the market, but I also see some short to mid term benefits based on the potential of Meda to register some immediate sales numbers.
I say 'buy the dips' with this one.
Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.
12 COMMENTS:
Picked up both of these stocks today on the cheap. Appreciate the insight.
Hi Vinny,
Hope all is well. Am still in a little shock over AGEN but that is the game! Hopefully it will now become a 20 bagger based on the comments from the investment guy about 1 month ago.
What do you think about AEMD.ob? Filtration devices, have low market cap, price may have bottomed ...
Let us know when you get a chance!
Tks!
sorry, the last comment was from Lenny
Hi Vinny,
HDVY is also popping up with a technology relationship (dated?) to VRMLQ.
Do you think this might be worthy of a deeper review as well?
Lenny
Hi Vinny,
re MSBT, when you get a chance have a look at this SEC file http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1175151/000114420408068974/v134279_s1.htm
Doesn't this mean that in reality their shares increase by 146 million? Or am I missing something?
Let us know
Tks!
Lenny
I agree on SPNG. Owned 15K shares at around 0.06. Bought 10K more, when it dropped into the 0.03 area. I think it's going to come back from a stock depressed situation. The suits are only because of the SEC shut-down and the hopes that some can gain on the company's challenges.
If the SEC clears SPNG, and that is looking better by the day now, the real question is going to be how many shares are out there. The company has complained of naked shorting, and there is a lot of hard evidence out there to suggest this, fail to delivers, SHO flags, etc.
There will be a race to that page of the 10-k. If the company lives up to its PR's and has not used excessive share issuance to fund all this advertising, there will be between 500-700 million outstanding. A forward valuation would literally put this at $.60 cents with a 20x P/E to reflect the immense growth. That is assuming that the first quarter claims of 70 million are accurate. (22 forward earnings / 700 shares x 20 = .62)
Now back to reality. The truth is probably that they did dump some out there. I mean hey, 200 million shares traded Monday and 140 million yesterday and as of 2/28/09 there were only 440 million floating.
My best guess is that the income numbers stand up and there are 1.5 billion out there. (the 8-k for 3 billion outstanding basically implies that there are more out there) But for there to be 3 billion out there, as some have asserted while pumping their personal agenda, means that they raised an amazing amount of cash, at least 300 million and probably more. That is not realistic.
I think it is worth this at a minimum:
11/1500 = .0073 x 10 = .073
That is with absolutely no premium for growth and with no hope of 700 mm outstanding. Any good news on the share front will send this thing skyrocketing.
Scott
Read an independent analyst report that supports .30 to .50 cents for MSBT w/in 6 mos. Wouldn't you know that's the one I didn't load up on at .07....Grrrrr....Oh well, at least I've got a handfull.
Oops....sorry, it's late. The report was supporting BIEL at .30 to .50 in 6 mos. Not MSBT. My bad.
Do you think it time to accumulate some more GNBT now that it took a bit of a dip from the $0.75 area? When do you think the pre Phase III news run up will begin? If it runs to over a dollar as you suggest, that would be a fairly decent short term return.
Cavaet emptor.
Thanks!
Hi Vinny,
Any ideas why GNBT has been falling these few weeks? And do you think that EPCT is ready to run soon? I ask because I know you hold these 2 stocks.
Thanks! Great blog
Hi Vinny,
Hope you had a great weekend!
There is an interesting company CEMI, they have a market cap under $20 million and apparently their products are superior to their competitors who have market caps in excess of 1 Billion.
If you get a chance, let us know.
Tks!
Lenny
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