Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into into consideration while reading:
- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.
- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.
- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.
RZ: An email from David regarding Raser Technologies:
Hello, Mr. VCF (I can see from other postings that your name is Vinny
- shall we address you that way?)
You are clearly busy these days, and I wish to congratulate you on your blog (which I've started reading aside from SA) and all the good work, and esp on your sincere desire to respond to others' ideas!
I wonder if you can find the time to respond to my request for your
take on a stock which may be out of your area of expertise - Raser
Technologies (RZ). Obviously the bulk of your research goes into
biotechs, but I'm wondering if this one passes your "smell test," and
what you think about the sector as well. It fits well into the
green-tech, Obama trend but since the stock has trended down for some
time, I'm wondering if to forget about it or see its current price as
a buying opportunity? And in general what do you think about the
sector - including stocks such as US geothermal (HTM) and Nevada geothermal?
As a separate, but interesting aside, I'm curious as to your record
of success with various price levels of stocks; for example, do you
find more success in the $1 to $5 range, or in the .10 to $1 range,
or in the under .!0 range? Is there a difference in the percentage
of winners among your picks in these respective ranges?
Thanks muchly! ds
VFC's Take: Regarding Raser Technologies, it passes my 'smell test' as a long term speculative buy, however - mainly because of financing - the company has a long way to go before I'd be ready to call it a solid investment.
The alternative/green energy sector is a great one to be in right now, in my opinion, but there are quite a few companies out there that are all developing the same technology; meaning that the hard part will be finding the ones that have the best potential to succeed and then being invested in them before/if they start to make it to the big time.
Raser certainly does have a lot of potential technology wrapped up in the company, but like all other companies looking to get ahead in this sector, they don't have the financing to go-it-alone. If a big player doesn't come on board in a big way, then Raser - like others in the sector - is going to have to continue to depend on government grants to survive, or even take advantage of some of the 'stimulus' money that was to be destined to support 'green energy' initiatives.
I do like the potential of this company, if Raser can find a way to bring its technology and ideas to market on a large scale, then investors will be very satisfied over the long term, in my opinion; however, for the time being I think that financing and dilution are going to continue to be an issue.
However, it is possible that Raser can make a splash this year if its first geothermal plant (Thermo No. 1) is deemed a success. The plant, according to recent public releases, should be running at full capacity by the end of fiscal year 2009. The company has stated that revenue from electricity sold to Anaheim, California has been already coming in since the Spring, but I still think the plant - let alone the company - is a long way off from profitability, so any spike in price would be met with dilution, in my opinion.
As alwys, do your DD on this one, however, I think that the risk/reward profile is decent enough if you have a long term outlook. Government money is going to be pouring into this sector for years to come, in my opinion, so any one of these developmental energy companies that looks to have an edge could be the ones to benefit most.
Also, a buyout or licensing agreement by/with a larger power/energy supplier is also a possibility, in my opinion.
Disclosure: No position.
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