Hello again VFC. Thanks for the reply! Your "house visit" example makes sense. Nobody gets invited to my house calling my wife a "ho" either. :) Wasn't expecting that when I read your reply and it still has me chuckling. Thanks for putting things in terms us "newbies" can understand.
I guess you can call me one of the ones who "missed the boat" on CVM, not because I did not believe in them but because I was not even into biotechs then. Even after I saw what the stock did in Sept. I was a believer and thought it wasn't too late to get in with what I've read about Multikine, CEL-1000 and CEL-2000 L.E.A.P.S. especially since their new facility and the progress/finalizing as of recently can only mean good things. Since becoming interested in biotechs my first two stocks I bought into were CVM and AGEN in late Sept. after doing my own DD. You can imagine how my biotech porfolio looks right now but I didn't get into the market thinking it would be all sunny days, so I'm staying optimistic since I bought in for the long haul on both. Still, its been a tough start.
Recently I've read news of a lawsuit against CVM in an SEC filing for Item 2.04. Any reason to be alarmed about this and do these type of allegations happen often?
Thanks again,
Nick (Confused Investor)
P.S. I'll be sure to click a few of your google ads whenever I read your blogs, least I can do for your time.
VFC's Take: First of all, I think we've all been confused at the beginning. Getting into stock investing, especially biotech investing, is overwhelming and it takes a whole lot of 'learn from your mistakes' experiences before you find a comfort zone.
That's why I like the feedback and input we get here on the blog, everyone has a chance to share experiences and strategies because no one gets it right all the time. It's also good to have a few like-minded investors to keep each other grounded.
Also, when it starts to feel like it's taking over your life too much and you're losing sleep, risking too much money or just plane off your game, it's time to take a step back and take some time away from the game.
Once, I even sold everything, went on vacation and then came back and started over. If you're not enjoying your investing, then you're not doing it right.
Now, on to your comments: Let me clarify for those new to the board when I use the term "missed the boat" with regards to CVM and AGEN. Both of these stocks were trading for under thirty cents for as low as twenty cents over the past year. It wasn't until AGEN hit the over-three dollar level and CVM hit the over-two dollar level that the riff raff came out from the peanut gallery, slaughtered the message and shorted the stock. These guys were nowhere around when the stocks were at twenty cents. That's what I mean about missing the boat, maybe I'm using it a little bit outdated now that both stocks have been cut roughly in half since their highs.
However, there's quite a few who were accumulating heavily when the stocks were trading for dimes, and many of those investors are still on board because they believe in the long term prospects of both companies.
If you're a trader, then you're unhappy right now. If you're a long term kind of investor, then you've got the patience to ride the storm - it's as easy as that. As long as you base your decisions on your own DD and base your DD on the facts, then you'll be fine. In the end, those that live day to day in the market can duke it out daily, but I think that if a company does have something to offer, then eventually there will be no choice for everyone but to accept that fact. Sometimes it takes years - lots of years; some investors can't wait that long.
As for the lawsuit - it'll become an issue when it becomes an issue. This is America - we are known throughout the world as the country that loves to sue. Any Tom, Dick or Harry can file a lawsuit in this country so I have a hard time taking them seriously until they become serious.
If we can have 'analysts' issuing fake PRs, opinion-based bloggers claiming to be journalists and the 'elite' in our country handing billions of dollars over to Bernie Madoff, then I'm inclined to believe that someone can file a bogus lawsuit to join the rest of the misfit gang out there and knock a stock down so that they can buy in cheap.
Cel Sci is pretty good about not responding to BS - and I like that strategy because they shouldn't respond to BS - and they haven't responded to this suit yet, so let's wait and see.
Regardless, it doesn't change how I see the potential of this company for the future.
And yes, hang onto a biotech stock long enough and there will be some sort of a lawsuit involved at some point. Maybe that's and exaggeration, but they are quite common, in my opinion, because it's so easy to file suit in this country. Just look up "why health care costs are so high" in the dictionary and you'll see "because litigation is out of control in America" will be right there.
Thanks for the comment.
Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.
An anonymous comment:
Dear VFC,
Enjoy your information and common sense.
Where do you find these interesting penny stocks? Do You have special news letters, sites, or screens that you frequently use?
Thanks You!
VFC's Take:
Thanks for the comment, click on the following link to a recent post where I responded to a reader who had the same question:
Finding the Speculative Plays
A comment regarding sub five cent stocks:
Sooo...what 3 or 4 sub-five cent stocks would you suggest as a starting point for someone to research?
VFC's Take: Readers have been throwing quite a few tips this way, but I haven't necessarily re-loaded my sub five cent stock portfolio since the likes of BIEL, TTNP, CSUH, MHAN and MHTX started rising. However, a few that I have in my portfolio still are, and I only use my 'night on the town' money to play with these:
MFLI.pk, NPDT.pk, SPNG.pk and MCET.pk. BIEL is another one that is close to the five cent mark. However, there's a load of these stock out there if you start looking. None do I consider safe bets, but if these things pop a cent then you're sitting on a thirty percent gain right there. I don't recommend going crazy in the sub five cent stocks, but if you can find one or two to follow then you can do pretty good if you play them right, in my opinion.
Do your own DD though, don't buy these solely on anyone else's tip.
Thanks for the comment.
2 COMMENTS:
On 10/21/09 the S&P made it's high for at least the next 12-15 years (depends a lot on the dollar and inflation). The next run up will last 9-13 days and will roll over starting a drop to the mid to low 600's. At that point the last bear ralley will begin, and will most likely run up to just under a 1000. That will be followed by a long slow drop to the low 400's. You might look at the performance of bio-tech stocks during our last fall, and expect the same pattern and volitility. You might also expect a lot of companies that squeezed by during this last decline to fail this time. Credit and financing will be non-existant for most all risky small/micro caps, and only those companies that have blockbusters, have a solid source of income, or are bought up at cheap prices by big pharma ,will survive.
Do I expect you to believe me now, No! But I think that when the drop starts this information may be of some benefit when you see the pattern I describe take shape. This is not a time to be long much of anything.
I am only posting this where the "little guys" gather for stock info. The big boys already know this. Good luck to all.
...says the anonymous poster w/ nothing verifiable to back up the statement. Umm-hmm.
Still loading up on BIEL. A little browsing led me to a story where one of the company top dogs states they are getting ready to move from the trial and development phase to more of a marketing phase. More ads, product recognition; that kind of thing. Coupled with impending FDA approvals (which as far as I can tell are nearly a done deal) and this thing could pop pretty soon. An independent analyst recently projected the company will trade at between .30 and .50 cents w/in 6 mos. (Check InvestorHub for the link). .07 could look like a steal next year. I'm in.
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