Hi VFC
What would your thoughts about the recent decline of BIEL?
Has it been manipulated? I don´t understand it. wHy do you think it has recently dropped to the 0,07 range. My speculative thoughts were that BIEL nowadays would be trading at 0.1 just waiting for the preliminary data of the comparative study with tylenol wich is expected in this days and the FDA decision (wich I´m confidence will be positive)...
I bought a bunch of shares at 0.088, a little highest than my average position...
Even when you has talked a lot about biel and your position on it... I wonder if I´m missing something? There are some rumor or information that I should know?
Thanks in advance... (I´m reading the post about EXERCISE PATIENCE again).
VFC's Take: Currently, BIEL is another example of having to rely on your own DD and having the fortitude to either hold onto your position or add to it.
As I mentioned in the 'Exercise Patience' post, it's one thing if a stock declines on bad news - at that point an investor will need to decide if there is potential for rebound or if it is a 'cut your losses and run' scenario.
However, it's a completely a different story when a stock declines for no apparent reason - especially in this age of increased volatility.
Here's my opinion on BIEL's decline - nothing has changed with the company or the potential of its products so I am ready to add to my position if the stock drops down to my buy price; at this time, my buy price is .065 cents.
As I've mentioned many times before, I think that ActiPatch has the potential to post huge world wide sales as Tylenol and Ibuprofen fall out of favor because of medical concerns.
Additionally, the stock recently had the 'CAVEAT EMPTOR' removed from its symbol on the pink sheets which should have drew in new investors; investors who may be getting in for somewhat of a discounted price than where the stock was trading at the time of the caveat removal. While it would be difficulat to judge how much new interest the removal of the caveat drew in, there is no doubt that the "Caveat Emptor" on a stock scares investors away.
There has been nothing negative released by either the company or the FDA to alter my current opinion on the stock, an opinion that I based on my own DD.
Is it possible that the stock is drifting down because of speculation that the FDA may deny the current ActiPatch applications for approval? Sure, that's possible. Based on the FDA's previous approvals, I deem that scenario unlikely, but the FDA is a fickle bunch and the agency is highly unpredictable at times, so it would be foolish to rule anything out.
However, I'm relying on my DD with this one and my DD has me believing that the FDA is likely to approve, in my opinion, and that ActiPatch has the potential to be a big seller - also in my opinion. I also believe that the company is doing what it can to gain legitimacy in the market place, the first step being the removal of the Caveat Emptor from the stock.
Another possibility is the 'contrary indicator' scenario - similar to AGEN's decline in May before the pop to over two bucks and CSUH's decline a couple of weeks ago before that stock's recent pop.
If that is the case, then I'm led to believe that an FDA decision may be close and some big boys are getting in for a discounted price. If that discounted price hits .065 cents, then I'm adding.
I always like buying a stock for below where I think it should be trading.
Also, thanks for the comment, Alejandro, it's always good to hear from you.
Disclosure: VFC is long BIEL.
4 COMMENTS:
Hi VFC,
I am not attempting to influence anything here, but just a word of caution on your stated buy in of BIEL at .065. There really is not much support below that price down to near the .03 level. On the other hand, there is a preliminary report due out on the comparison study with Tylenol this month, around the 24th. Being a pessimist, and looking at the continuing distribution on increasing volume I have to wonder if that report might not be that good. But, in any event, I just wanted to send a word of caution about the support levels relative to your next buy in price.
My apologies if this type post is unwanted.
I do not own BIEL , yet.
Hey anonymous your post is unwanted because it's nothing but a bash on biel so get lost. Sincerely Danny
The recent decline in BIEL is due the speculation that the FDA would approve Actipatch/Allay by Oct. 15th. Biomedreports.com originally listed Oct. 15th as the decision date. When nothing was released yesterday morning, some investors sold. This date was mostly arbitrary and just an estimate of the FDA decision, but it did have an impact on the stock price.
VFC, could you put together a post for investors regarding the FDA and how the process works? It seems silly that investors tried to "time" an FDA decision but I think that's what happened over the last couple of days with BIEL.
I've dipped my toe in with BIEL, but these shares are pricey. With 900 million shares outstanding, they will have to clear 7 mm in net income before they can justify today's price. That will take a top-line boost of probably 10 times or more.
Scott
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