Friday, October 16, 2009

Briefs: MHAN, GNBT, MSBT

MHAN.ob: Shares of Manhattan Pharmaceuticals continue to trade in the seven to ten cent range as investors continue to anticipate an FDA decision on Hedrin sometime in the first half of next year, the time frame given by the company in previously released statements.

Until investors are given additional guidance, it's safe to assume that we may not hear much from the company until that time, as the directors at Manhattan have not been masters of releasing information in the past.

I still think that MHAN will see a very significant price spike (in terms of percentages) between now and the time of a Hedrin approval, although I do not consider MHAN a solid long term pick because I can't shake the belief that the directors at the company are more interested in taking care of their 'boys' instead of taking care of the shareholders. I base this opinion on the previous lack of information released by MHAN and the recent merger with Ariston.

Investors waiting for a news release regarding Hedrin need to be patient. The stock is back to trading under the radar after its quick rise to over ten cents from just below a penny and if good Hedrin news hits the wires, another quick spike could be in store.

MHAN is still a highly speculative risk/reward play that may not pan out, but I felt the potential of Hedrin, a non-pesticide treatment for head lice, was worth a few speculative dollars.

Also, when doing your DD on this stock, keep in mind that Manhattan only has a license for the North American rights to Hedrin - they have no connections or ties to Hedrin sold overseas.

Disclosure: VFC is long MHAN.

Vitamin World

GNBT: Shares of Generex traded relatively flat on Friday morning after the company announced that Oral-Lyn, Generex's spray insulin product that was recently highlighted in the NY Times, was commercially launched by partner Continental Pharma Laboratories in Algeria earlier this week.

The Algerian launch of the product now has Oral-Lyn approved in four countries, India, Lebanon, Ecuador and of course, Algeria. Additionally, the FDA has allowed emergency use of the product in the United States, but that is no indication as to whether or not they will approve when decision time comes.

The Algerian launch gives the company another opportunity to bring in some revenue, but the real news will be a successful Phase III trial in the US and a possible FDA approval in 2010.

Aside from the ongoing US Phase III trial, for which results are due in either 4Q 2009 or 1Q 2010, Oral-Lyn is also being evaluated in Phase III trials at various sites around the world, according to the company's web site.

I still like GNBT as a speculative play and I think that a rise to over one dollar is in order based on either pure speculation or positive news on the US Phase III trial. Because of the fact that GNBT's RapidMist spray does not utilize the lungs in any way to deliver insulin into the blood stream, I think that Oral-Lyn has the opportunity to eventually become the market leader for insulin delivery - if approved.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.



MSBT.ob: The volatility of MedaSorb continue during early trading on Friday as shares of MSBT traded to the upside by 30%, reaching a high of over twenty cents.

After the company rasied $1.3 million last week in the exercise of warrants the stock traded down to around the fifteen cent level this week before Friday morning's rebound. The money raised, according to Dr. Phillip Chan, CEO of MedaSorb, will be used to fund the finalities of the European sepsis trial for lead product candidate CytoSorb.

Results are due later this year from that sepsis trial and the stock price should inch upwards in anticipation of those results because if positive - and especially if approved for use - CytoSorb could be a big seller seeing as how there is currently no effective treatment for severe sepsis.

I still think it might be just a bit early to rule out any additional dips into the mid teens, but time is becoming thin to get in before the release of the upcoming results.

However, the days of MSBT trading for below ten cents are finished, in my opinion, unless the results of the CytoSorb trial are negative.

This stock is still a high risk/high reward play - as treating sepsis is a tough call, hence no established current treatment - but I don't think that the current market cap of about eight million justifies even the short term potential of the stock.

MSBT is definitely a stock to watch in the fourth quarter.

Disclosure: VFC is long MSBT.

Follow the money with Trading Patterns.

5 COMMENTS:

Anonymous said...

Hi VFC! Thank you for taking the time to post your thoughts! Your posts are very informative, helpful, and much appreciated! What are your thoughts on SNDY.PK (Solos Endoscopy)? It seems like they have a lot of good things going for them, including early detection cancer products, one is FDA approved. The stock is only at .02 cents and had a decent run over the last few days. I'd love your thoughts. Thanks again!

peter said...

Hello VFC,

I love reading your comments and insight, keep up the good work. Not a day goes by without me learning something new by reading your posts.

I still have a question on your take of Sequenom (SQNM). Any comments?

Thanks in advance.

-Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi VFC,
What are your thoughts on the PR from Novadel this morning? Do you think their worth buying back into since their goal is to have licenses in place for the approved drugs by end of the 2009 Fiscal Year?

Thanks,
Noah

Anonymous said...

Dear VFC,
This is the third time a send to you and I am hoping I will be lucky this time and get some feedback from you. I know you are very busy, get a lot of emails and this blog is just hobby. I am an overseas investor and really need your help. In your opinion, which pick is better; ONTY or OGXI.
Thanks in advance,
Muhammad

Anonymous said...

Hi VFC,

I like reading your comments and it helps me a lot while investing in to stocks. What are your thoughts on Nuvo Research Inc.(TSE:NRI, PINK:NRIFF), I believe FDA news for NRI is on November 4.

Also if you can shine some lights on Power3 Medical Products, Inc. (PWRM).

Your help will be really appreciated,

Thanks,

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