Briefs: EPCT, NRIFF, CVM

EPCT: Shares of Epicept Corp traded relatively flat during early trading on Monday after a press release issued by the company during the morning hours highlighted the "pharmacoeconomic benefits" of Ceplene in a 'cost to savings' anlysis conducted by Applied Healthcare Resource Management Inc.

The report measured the costs and potential savings (in terms of British pounds) of the British Ministry of Health if Ceplene were to be offered to patients of Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) in first remission in the United Kingdom.

Naturally, the cost analysis proved that the use of Ceplene in the UK, because the drug would reduce the amount of AML relapses in patients, was favorable to the Ministry's budget and was "well within the established per-patient reimbursement threshold for a new drug," according to statements contained within the press release.

This news is 'good enough' for Epicept, but I think that the only news that investors of EPCT are looking for is news of a long-anticipated partnership for Ceplene in Europe; anything else is pretty insignificant right now without Ceplene being on the market.

Myriad Pharmaceuticals is due to release an update on an Azixa Phase II trial in November, so I consider positive news regarding Azixa as offering the best chance for a short term price spike in EPCT. A couple of years ago the stock jumped to over four dollars on positive Azixa news, although that was before the latest rounds of dilution. If the Azixa update is positive and the price spikes as a result, I will most likely sell into that spike as I am growing impatient while sitting around waiting for a Ceplene partnership.

The fact that a year has gone by with no news of a partnership has me believing that the Epicept management team will not be able to get the job done. I'm holding for now, but I'll probably sell into any Azixa spike and try to get back in later after the company undoubtedly takes advantage of the price spike with additional dilution.

All just my opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long EPCT.



NRIFF.pk: Shares of Nuvo research have recovered nicely to above the thirty cent level after a morning drop quickly plunged the stock to nineteen cents. The company issued an official response to Monday's trading at the request of the Canadian regulatory agencies declaring that they've got nothing new to report, but the drop sure got the attention of a whole lot of investors; some of whom were terrified at the quick and very significant percentage drop while others jumped at the chance to gobble up some cheap shares in anticipation of November's FDA decision on Pennsaid, Nuvo's lead drug that has been partnered with Covidien for US distribution.

Any insight into the morning drop is purely based on speculation, but it's not so uncommon to see such a precipitous drop in the share price of a biotech stock these days - especially not when big news is pending. Some speculation would say that bad news leaked and some big players bailed quick while others would speculate that the big boys were just playing their games and dropped the price of the stock in order for them to get in cheap themselves.

It's any one's guess, at this point, although one thing is for sure: a whole lot of stop-loss orders got taken out this morning and there's a whole lot of unhappy investors out there who lost their shares via stop-loss and then watched the price quickly rebound to thirty cents. It's for reasons like this one that I am not a big fan of stop loss orders.

If you've got a stop loss in and bad news hits sending the stock price in free-fall mode, then most likely - because your stop loss will become a market order - the price that you'll get for your stop loss is going to be well below the price that you wanted. If that's your intention - to get rid of a dropping stock - then a stop loss order is the way to go, but it leaves you vulnerable to the 'big boy' games that get played, when the MMs go looking to take out stop losses - many times before a big run.

Of note, both DNDN and AGEN had significant dips before embarking on huge percentage runs shortly thereafter.

The reason for Monday's early NRIFF drop may never be known to the likes of you and me, but the fact that the stock recovered to over thirty cents has me pretty confident that nothing has changed, nothing has been leaked and we're still on track for an early November decision. Of course, that's just my own opinion.

Disclosure: VFC is long NRIFF.



CVM: In news released by Cel Sci Corp on Monday morning, it was announced that the company has raised over "$10 million over the past 60 days through the exercise of warrants by investors to purchase the Company's common stock," according to statements contained within the PR.

Additionally, the PR stated that Cel Sci has now raised about $30 million over the past two months and the money will be used to fund the pending Multikine Phase III trial and also to "accelerate the development of its LEAPS compound for the treatment of H1N1 hospitalized patient."

It looks like the pieces are falling into place for Cel Sci, and I contend that the fourth quarter should be an exciting one for the Cel Sci story.

Disclosure: VFC is long CVM.