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Monday, December 22, 2008

New Pick: NVD, NovaDel Pharma - Updates on EPCT, CPST

The stock for NovaDel Pharma (NVD) caught many by surprise today by running up to a high of 88 cents after a previous close of 32 cents. The 32 cents close came after a run from about five cents where NVD was trading not too long ago.

I hate being on the sidelines for a runup in a stock on my watch list, but today I was on the sidelines- until the end of the day.

Before today, I had no confidence that NovaDel's Zolpimist, a short term Oral Spray treatment for Insomnia, would receive approval from the FDA, hence my not investing in the company, but today the FDA did, in fact, approve Zolpimist leading to the sharp rise in share price.

The temptation to chase a stock is there as you're watching it go higher, but NVD's jump did not last long and the stock price slowly retreated back down throughout the second half of the trading day before closing at 46 cents. In my opinion, the drop was most likely due to the big boys wanting to load up with as many cheap shares as they can get.

In a more stable market, this stock may have seen nearly two bucks today, but with market conditions as they are, drug approvals mean nothing- at least not in the short term. I've watched the stock price for EPCT (Epicept) and AGEN (Antigenics) drop after receiving approvals this year, so it was no surprise to see NVD also drop back down. NVD, however, is the only one of these three that has a drug approved in the USA; Epicept has Ceplene approved in Europe and Antigenics has Oncophage approved in Russia.

I took advantage of the afternoon drop and bought in at fifty cents. NovaDel now has two FDA approved drugs; the aforementioned Zolpimist and the previously approved Nitromist with six other drug candidates (or modified dosings of current drugs) in early stages of development, all using NovaDel's proprietary NovaMist oral spray technology.

A company with two approved drugs equals a good buy (in my opinion), especially in this depressed market.

In the long run, NVD (as well as EPCT and AGEN) should rebound when the market rebounds, but a short term run is also possible pending any news of a partnership.

Caveat: There's a million stock market bargains out there right now that may be a lot safer than a small biotech with a just-approved drug. However, these biotechs with recently approved drugs could outperform the market (in terms of percentage gain) when the rebound occurs.
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STOCK NOTES:

EPCT, Epicept: After recently receiving approval to market Ceplene in Europe, Epicept is preparing to file a New Drug Application that will allow the company to market Ceplene in Canada, according to recent Press Releases.

With an approved drug and the potential for a partnership announcement early in 2009, I still believe that EPCT is a great buy- especially when it is trading for sixty cents.

CPST, Capstone Turbine: I still love CPST and their microturbine technology. We got a gift, in my opinion, when the stock price dropped to about sixty cents a few weeks ago, and I took advantage of the drop by placing trades at 88, 78 and 68 cents in an attempt to average down.

CPST is again trading for over a dollar, but I'll be taking advantage of all dips below a buck in this crazy market.

The orders and contracts are rolling in for Capstone, now its time to see this company turn a profit. We're likely still a few years away from that, however.

VFC's Bear Market Stock Picks Part I
VFC's Bear Market Picks Part II
VFC's Bear Market Picks Part III
VFC's Bear Market Non Picks Part
VFC's Stock Updates
VFC's Bear Market Picks Part IV; CRYP, CSUH.OB
VFC's Biotech Picks
VFC's Quarterly Updates
INSM Update, IPLEX Back In Action

GET THE LADY SHOPPING! TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HER ROOM'S 70% SEASON CLOSEOUT DISCOUNTS!
HerRoom - Huge Clearance Sale

Thursday, December 11, 2008

CSUH.OB, Celsius Holdings Secures a Line of Credit

The biggest uncertainty for Celsius Holdings, financing, has just been eliminated. An 8-K filed yesterday revealed that Carl DeSantis is willing to commit money to Celsius Holdings as his company, CD Financial LLC, has provided Celsius Holdings a one million dollar revolving line of credit. The terms of the LLC credit are more favorable than the terms of Celsius' previous financing, and Celsius has already tapped into this line of credit to pay off its remaining debt.

This 8-K is the confirmation that I was waiting for that shows that Carl DeSantis is committed to keeping Celsius Holdings afloat as they move towards profitability. With financing now a non issue, we can wait for the advertising campaign to kick into full swing and possibly create a nice spike in new sales and reorders as Celsius becomes a well-known brand.

Since consumers are keeping their money in their pockets during this recession, growth may be slower than expected, but Celsius now has the ability to weather the economic storm until things turn around. Growth should still be there as consumer awareness grows, but the significant growth won't come, in my opinion, until this economy starts to turn around.

In the meantime, I'm confident enough to continue adding to my position of CSUH.OB.

Comments from Celsius CEO Steve Haley

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Comments From Celsius CEO, Steve Haley

On the heels of VFC's latest Celsius (CSUH.OB) update, I popped a few more questions over to Celsius Holdings CEO, Steve Haley. As usual he responded in timely fashion and provided just enough information to keep VFC just as confident in the stock and product as ever.

CSUH.OB has taken a beating over the past year. There were sharp spikes to the upward that gave traders a chance to flip some shares, but for the most part, the trend has been downward. With the downward trend, I've taken the chance to accumulate shares and lower my cost average. I'm confident that I'm sitting pretty with Celsius and look forward to the good things to come.

In previous posts, I've stated that I do have some concern regarding the company's ability to raise cash to survive. My own opinion is that Carl DeSantis will use his deep pockets to keep things running, until which time that the media campaign hits full swing and the company becomes self sufficient.

I've also posted that much of my confidence in the stock stems from my confidence in the product and the solid management team. It's not easy building a company and introducing a new product in the beverage industry that is already dominated by the big boys, yet the team at Celsius has slowly and methodically carved themselves a foothold in the market. With targeted advertising and growing consumer awareness, Celsius could be close to hitting mainstream.

In my opinion, the biggest obstacle, aside from financing, is the economy. Consumers may not be willing to shell out two bucks for an energy/weight loss drink when their jobs may be on the line.

That said, here's Mr. Haley's latest comments (his comments in bold):

Just a couple of questions from my myself and some of the blog followers, I appreciate any answers you're able to give us: I like to be as open and transparent as possible. It’s how I would like to be treated as an investor. But, please understand that I can go only so far on some of the questions. Whether because of fair disclosure issues or competitive ones, some of what we are doing, we would like to keep quiet until we are ready to announce. Thanks for understanding.

1. Can we have an update on the status of the television commercials; When will they begin airing and in which markets? We are finished with all the creative, final story boards, etc. We are in the production phase but have not completed any of the filming. I am not sure where they stand on the casting. Had to finish the creative before we knew the talent that would be needed. As for markets, we have not bought the media yet. You might call it the negotiation phase. We are working to get the best value in areas that matter. We will probably start in the northeast and Florida. Not sure how fast yet we will grow it. Depends a little on the rates we can get.

2. Has there been an increase in sales in the markets where the radio ads are currently playing or is it still too early to tell? It is a little early to tell but we ‘believe’ that it has had a good impact. Things that we can actually monitor show that we get tons more traffic to the website during a media buy in an market. Sales seem stronger. Not just the trend up but that actual number of accounts in a market with an increase. In other words, not just a few stores with an increase but more of an increase across the market. But still too early to do any quantitative projections from the lift.

3. To the best of your knowledge and ability to answer, is there any indication that re-order sales are looking better this quarter than last? Re-orders are better. Don’t want to say too much more about where we believe we will come in for the period. Will say it won’t be like last quarter.

4. From recent press releases, we get the impression that Mr. DeSantis is willing to keep this company afloat for the time being, is this assumption correct and are there any other financing options on the table? Again, don’t want to say too much. Mr. DeSantis is giving us invaluable guidance on many fronts. On the retail shelf optimization, we believe the new packaging is having an impact but again too early to tell quantitatively. They are also helping us strengthen our balance sheet. The recent 8k describes what we hope is just an interim step. If/when we complete the rest, we will be able to describe the whole plan.

5. Is the sale of the company or an option? We are not currently looking to sell the company. We want to maximize shareholder value however and would of course listen if approached. That said however, we strongly believe that to best deliver the optimum return would be to grow the company both top and bottom line and then see what makes sense. That is what we are focused on right now. We just about have the foundation in place to then grow sensibly with more predictability.

Thanks for any insight you can give us.

Still excited about the product! The wife loves the Green Tea Peach Mango! The teas are doing well. Peach Mango seems to be favored a little more than the Raspberry/ACAI but not by much. Having the non-carbonated line is helping us get into more places quicker.

Mr. Haley provided more information than I thought he would, and I appreciate his candidness.

Some positives from his statements above:
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- The increase in traffic at the website after radio ad runs. As Mr. Haley stated, it is still too early to tell how much of an impact the ads are having in stores, but the fact that they are drawing interest to the website is positive. It's world wide web world we live in, and if people hear the add then get online researching the product, that can only be good news.

- Interesting comments regarding re-orders. The re-orders, in my opinion, will be the real indicator if the radio ads are working.

- Regarding a potential sale, Mr. Haley's preference to grow the company and give shareholders a return on value is consistent with all of his previous statements. Of course every CEO will say that, but I believe that Haley and the rest of the management team have demonstrated their ability to get the job done.

The only negative that I can note is that the TV ads are not yet completed. Those ads would have great impact right around the New Year when half of the country resolves themselves to losing weight.

Mr Haley, Carl DeSantis and all others involved have come too far to consider shutting off the lights. Celsius is a growing story, growing product, growing brand and if things continue as planned, sometime soon it will be a growing stock!

All that invest could be in on the bottom floor of something big. I'm fully loaded and ready.

Another reason that I'm so confident in the product- Celsius combined with a nice workout plan has helped me lose 15 extra pounds that I had around that VFC waistline. But more importantly, I've been able to keep it off a lot easier by drinking a can a day. A can a day keeps the pounds away, that's what VFC has got to say!

Latest Update on the CSUH.OB Stock
STEVE HALEY's PREVIOUS COMMENTS

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Stock Updates: Auto Stocks, ETFs, Celsius, Epicept, Cryptologic, Insmed, Antigenics

The stock market is still dishing out some great bargains and as a small investor, you really can't go wrong anywhere right now, aside from a few obvious exceptions.

I'm still staying away from the auto stocks even with a possible bailout coming. I may miss out on some gains by staying away from these stocks, but since I don't think that the American auto industry will ever reach its previous strength, I cannot justify buying their stocks. It'll be years before these companies even remotely recover and in the meantime the overseas automakers will continue to dig into the US market share.

The auto companies have ran themselves into the ground by overestimating the strength of the American SUV and pickup truck and then by underestimating the ability of the foreign automakers to inflict serious financial damages by slowly chipping away at that SUV/Pickup market and gaining more market share than the Big 3 thought possible. The American automakers are also years behind the rest of the world in the manufacture of small, economic vehicles and hybrids.

All these negatives come before one takes into account the union contracts that continue to drag the Big 3 down.

There's too much going on there for me to feel real comfortable in a long term investment, especially with all the safer bargains out there. If the companies do enter into Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and are allowed to restructure their business plan and the UAW contracts, I may reconsider my decision to stay away. At that point I would have more confidence in these companies as a long term investment.

Aside from the auto sector, VFC is still staying away from the financials, I don't want any part of them right now.

On the positive side, now is the time to throw money where I normally wouldn't. I don't touch an Electronically Traded Fund (ETF) in an up market because the percentage gains just aren't there, but right now I'm putting money into them. When the market rebounds, the ETFs will follow the market and should return some pretty healthy gains. Those are the safest bets right now, especially those that pay back dividends.

In October and November I posted a long list of stock bargains that I like in this market, and there are still plenty of more out there for those that are not too scared to buy into a down market. It won't be any fun chasing the market up when the rebound arrives, so its important to be in before that time comes.

A few updates on the stocks I've been following:

CSUH.OB, Celsius Holdings:

There's a lot of stocks out there at rock bottom prices that are a lot less risky than this one, but I still believe in the Celsius product the business plan and am willing to ride this one out for a while. If the product reaches its full market potential, we could be in for huge gains with CSUH.OB.

Since Celsius is a luxury item and not a necessity, the recession is probably hampering sales and hurting reorders, but investors should be in good shape if the company can stay afloat for a few more quarters while the advertising campaign kicks in.

Meanwhile, a few recent Press Releases can give investors some confidence.

The first PR was released last week and gives an indication that Carl DeSantis is willing to keep the company afloat for the time being. The fact that Mr. DeSantis would step in was an assumption that many investors had already made, and provides some comfort that he means business.

The second recent PR was a new distribution agreement with Kum & Go in the Midwest. Over 400 sales locations were added in that deal. Hopefully the new distribution will be backed by radio or TV ads so that the product catches on enough to bring reorders.

Another PR announced that Celsius was participating in a promotion called 'Drop While You Shop' at a popular shopping location in Boston. While awaiting TV and Radio ads to take effect, I like this promotion during the busy holiday season. Not only does it provide consumer awareness to the product, but it shows that the management team is thinking outside the box.

I'm fully loaded with CSUH.OB at this time, but another drop down to .025 will trigger another BUY.

VFC's DEALS AND STEALS

Monday, December 1, 2008

VFC's Christmas Gift Ideas, Holiday Sales and Discounts!

MORE HOLIDAY SALES AND DEALS

Take advantage of the deep discounts that this Holiday Season, because of the recession, is bringing us.

Aside from the great sales and savings, most online vendors are offering free shipping.

Here's a few gift ideas for you online shoppers:

DAVID'S COOKIES. You can never go wrong sending out a Christmas sweets as an inexpensive gift choice. David's offers Gift baskets and boxes of most of your holiday favorites including cakes, cookies, brownies, truffles and more.
Sweets are always a holiday favorite, and David's is offering free shipping through the New Year.
Christmas 2008

APPETIZERS TO GO
Sticking with the food theme (food is always a great way to warm the heart around the holidays), Appetizers To Go can make your life a lot easier while planning for parties and holiday festivities. The appetizers offered on the web site are seemingly endless and delicious, and the company is offering a 20% discount on most goods due to the economy. VFC will be digging in around the holidays, that's a given.
When the Party Must Go On… Save 20% on Party Appetizers

JUST BECAUSE BASKETS
Although Christmas in not 'Just Because', this company offers you the opportunity to handpick specific items to create a personalized gift basket for your friends or loved ones. You put together the gift basket with a few online clicks, and they do the rest of the work. 'Just Because Baskets' is offering a variety of holiday discounts, including 10% off your first purchase or a blanket 5% discount. You'll also receive free shipping on select baskets.
Build Your Own Basket & Get Free Shipping on Select Baskets + 10% off Your First Order! <br />Enter Code save10 at Checkout.

SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO
SatRad is neat new fad, offering dozens of commercial free music channel, but more importantly, its the Sports packages why the 12.99/month subscription is well worth the price. Sirius XM offers complete-game live airings of all the major sports (NFL, MLB, NBA, etc), including some English Premier League Soccer coverage.
Most of the SatRad devices can also be used as MP3 players and media storage devices and also allow you the option of one-click recording a song that is playing on the airwaves.

Aside from the immense Sports selection and huge variety of commercial free music, Sirius XM features Howard Stern, Oprah, Playboy Radio, the Mad Dog Chris Russo and much more. A great gift for anyone, but especially the sports lover, in my opinion.
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.

THE WINE MESSENGER
Give the gift of wine without having to hassle with the packaging, packing and sending. You select the wine that you want to send at The Wine messenger, and they do all the rest.

Good wine is always a perfect gift. The Wine Messenger is offering various holiday discounts.
The Wine Messenger

AMAZON.COM
You can't go wrong shopping at Amazon.com.

Amazon offers everything, from books and movies to toys and electronics. If there's any doubt as to what to buy, just send an Amazon gift card as a gift!


GIGA GOLF
If you're shopping for that golfer in your life, you can't go wrong with Giga Golf. Giga Golf offers all sorts of Golfing accessories and they're also offering various holiday discounts. Make your Christmas shopping for the Golf fan easy by shopping at Giga Golf.
Classic Gifts For Golfers

WIREFLY
Wirefly has absolutely the best online discounts for cell phones, cell phone accessories and other electronics.

The heavily discounted Blackberry Bold Smartphone is just one of many amazing holiday deals that you'll find at Wirefly.
Wirefly: BlackBerry Bold Smartphone - Save $250 with a new AT&T account!

Among the other bargain deals that you'll find at Wirefly: a FREE Motorola Krave flip phone (with the purchase of a new Verizon contract) and the heavily discounted Sprint Instinct or Verizon LG EnV.

Browse Wirefly for more discounts and deals on cell phones, cell phone plans and cell phone accessories!
Wirefly - FREE LG EnV2 after instant discount for all new Verizon Wireless customers + FREE Bluetooth Headset. Enter coupon code BDAYACCD4B02552 at checkout.

DIAMONDS INTERNATIONAL
If you want to give the gift of fine jewelery, take advantage of Diamonds International discounted holiday prices!

Whether its earings, necklaces, bracelets or rings, Dimaonds International has the deal for you.

In light of the economic recession, Diamonds International is now offering 20% discounts for holiday shoppers. Take advantage of those holiday discounts if you're in the hunt for Diamond discounts!
Diamonds International

Just a few gift ideas for now.

VFC is always on the hunt for holiday sales and discounts, and i'll post more as I find them!

MORE HOLIDAY DISCOUNTS AND SALES

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