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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Celsius Holdings, CSUH.OB Announces New Distributor in Ohio

Another distributor just picked up Celsius. The stock is moving today on high volume. There may be a small pullback in the next couple of days after todays large-precentage gain, but the time to buy CSUH.OB for such a discounted price is slipping away, in my opinion. I don't think we see the teens again after next month.

VFC is lovin CSUH.OB more and more every day. I like the growth potential here, as I've previously suggested!

Sunday, January 27, 2008

CSUH.OB, Celsius Beverage to be Showcased on the Food Network

This is not a Celsius (CSUH.OB) blog, I promise. It just so happens that this stock is trading at an attractive level (in my humble opinion), and news just happens to keep coming.

Here I gave an overview of why I liked Celsius; mainly because I'm behind the product itself. Good stuff. Then I suggested that in my opinion, it is a good buy in the down market. I also mentioned that the stock price may stay down due to the market conditions and the fact that financing may be around the corner. As VFC predicted, two days later the company announced the financing deal.

One thing missing from the Celsius bandwagon is an advertising campaign. The obvious reason for this is money. I believe they want to achieve as much distribution as possible before launching a national advertising campaign, which would be expensive and burn through cash pretty quick, so it makes sense to make sure they have a national distribution network in place.

One way that they will recieve free advertising is by being showcased in places such as the Food Network, which will be doing just that in late February.

I like that kind of advertising for a start-up company like Celsius, free. No money spent on advertising, but they're getting advertised. Also, a showcase on the Food Network will add credibility to the product.

I like these developments and I like the management of this company. They're not rushing anything, but taking the necessary steps to advance the product and the company. In my opinion, this is a formula for success.

VFC thinks CSUH.OB looks better and better every day!

Friday, January 25, 2008

Celsius Holdings, CSUH.OB Announces Financing

If a company is going to release bad news, expect them to do it on a Friday after the markets close. They do this for a couple of reasons, the obvious reason being that a press release on a Friday afternoon will not be noticed nearly as much as if they did it earlier in the day, or earlier in the week. Another reason is that people have the weekend to digest the information and they can then make a rational trade the following week, rather than trading on initial impulse and selling right away. If bad news comes out mid day, the stock will drop a lot more than it will the following Monday when people have digested the information.

In my last post about Celsius, I mentioned that I believe that CSUH.OB is a good buy because it has a depressed stock price in a bad market. I bought another thousand shares at .11 cents, I just thought it was that good of a deal. I also mentioned that I thought the stock price was staying low because there probably will be a bit of financing coming up. That financing was announced today, after the markets closed.

Celsius filed the following 8-K, as posted on Yahoo! finance, regarding the financing (loansharking) deal they got:
Form 8-K for CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC.

25-Jan-2008

Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Unregistered Sale of Equity Se

Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement
On January 22, 2008, Celsius Holdings, Inc. executed an exchange agreement with Brennecke, LLC (the "Exchange Agreement") to exchange a demand note with an outstanding balance of $210,000 plus accrued interest of $16,555 for one million (1,000,000) shares of newly issued common stock in Celsius Holdings, Inc, and a non-interest bearing note in the amount of $105,000, which calls for 7 monthly payments of $15,000 each, commencing on March 1, 2008, pursuant to Section 3(a)(9) of the Securities Act of 19333.


Looks like they got a loansharking loan, but the point is that they got the financing they needed to move on. This reduces some uncertainty with the stock, as many players like to be certain about the terms of financing before investing. I now believe the stock is poised to move forward.

Quarterly results are around the corner, and I believe they'll show significant improvement and they should reach positive Earnings Per Share very soon, in my opinion.

VFC is glad to have gotten another 1000 shares at .11 cents, and still thinks this is a good entry point for Celsius.

Epicept Corporation, EPCT

If you can't already tell, when it comes to speculating, I tend to get into the biotech or the small, specialty pharmaceuticals. There are ups and downs to speculating in biotechs. The fact that a positive update on a drug in the pipeline could create a double in the stock almost instantly is and exciting prospect. The bad side to that, is almost certainly the stock will retreat back to pre-news levels very quickly, so you need to sell into the spike. The only way the stock price will remain elevated is if the good news means the FDA just approved their drug. If that is the case, you may see a 10-bagger, depending on what the stock price was before approval.

It's very risky investing in this sector, and you definately need to have some cajones. You need to be able to put up with large percentage price swings both ways and you need to be able to have the time to stay on top of these stocks so you can sell into spikes and buy on dips. Generally you'll have a pretty good idea when updates should be coming on drug trials, so you can spend time accumulating, then as the time approaches that the news should be released, you gotta be on top of your portfolio a couple of times a day at least. That's how quick it happens sometimes.

As much as you can make quick gains in this sector, you can get burned big time. You could accumulate forever, build up a solid foundation then get bad news and get crushed. Encycive (ENCY) and Genitope (GTOP) are two recent examples of this action (I had a few stock options in each, but only a small amount. I don't like one-trick ponies).

One huge factor about investing in this sector is the fact that fundamentals don't drive the price; The FDA (government) moves the price by making decisions on whether a drug is approved or not. When you have government officials making these decisions, there is a lot of room for politics (and payoffs) to take play. A drug you think is a sure thing may get an approvable letter for some political reason. Or you may find that a high-ranking politician has monetary ties to a large-pharma company with a competing drug. Of course this is just my opinion and I am not implying taht this would ever happen. Dendreon (DNDN), as I've said before, is an example of possible conflicts-of-interest at the FDA.

So since this sector is so risky, and since I can't always count on the FDA to make sound decisions, I try to get into biotechs that have a safety net. This means to me that if one drug fails (or two), there's another drug(s) in the pipeline to fall back on. One trick pony companies lose almost all their value with their failed pony (GTOP). A company with a few drugs in the pipeline can count their losses and move on. This helps you, because even if you go down a bit on bad news, you'll possibly eventually recover most of, if not all your losses based on the next drug in the pipeline, or maybe not. That's what this sector is about. I like to look for good risk-reward. I'll risk a few hunney with the potential to gain a few thousand.

Epicept meets that criteria for me. They have SIX drugs in the pipeline.

Risk. I'm in Epicept between $1.40-$2.00. I've traded in and out a little bit, but this is pretty much my entry range. Right now the stock is in the $1.20s. The risk, in my opinion, is not much. Real bad news might cut my investment by 50%, but since there are other fallback drugs in the pipeline, I think I'll make my money back if that happens.

Reward. If one drug hits the stock can at least triple in the blink of an eye. I saw it do just that last year on a positive update of their Azixa trial.

The most advanced drug is Ceplene. Ceplene, EPCT's lead oncology drug to treat Acute Myeloid Leukemia, is currently being reviewed for approval to market in the European Union. A decision should be made by 3rd Quarter 2008.

An unblinding of Epicept's NP-1 drug to treat Neuropathic pain is due any day now.

Azixa and EPC2407, two more cancer drugs, are in Phase II and Phase I trials, respectively.

Lidopain SP and Lidopain BP are two more pain-related drugs in Phase II trials.

If Ceplene gets disapproved, there is a safety net with the other five drugs. I like that.

I also like to be in cancer drugs/immunotherapies/vaccines. I feel like we're close to huge leaps forward in the treatment of cancer. I believe breakthroughs are just around the corner, and that is great for the millions that suffer from all the different types of cancer. That is what really matters. However, when one of these cancer drugs breaks, the stock price of that company will skyrocket (DNDN went from mid-3s to 26 bucks on a positive recommendation by the FDA advisory panel) and we should get our cut. That's why I'll risk a little in the biotech cancer-developing companies.
Don't mistake my desire to be in the stock when it moves with the importance of saving and bettering people's lives. That's what really matters.

VFC likes EPCT for the good risk-reward profile and the six late-stage pipeline drugs. Don't forget that cheap price right now either. I've got a few years to wait for this one. Maybe sooner if Ceplene gets approved. We'll see.

Hit me on 16......

http://www.epicept.com/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EPCT

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

CSUH.OB Buy it in a Down Market!

We're in a pretty good down market right now, and I love a good down market because we can bargain shop. Pretty much anything can be undervalued in a down market. Don't get me wrong, down markets are terrible to trade in, but in my opinion, if you've got the patience to wait for the upturn, you'll make out pretty good if you get in while it's down. Buy low and sell high is easier said than done, but you'll do pretty good for yourself if you buy low and sell highER. Don't get too greedy and try to ride a stock to the top, that's where you'll get burned. Always take some profits along the way.

A down market gives us a whole lotta bargains that make it easier to buy low and sell higher.

I haven't had as much time to look into the bargains as much as I'd like, so I hope this down market lasts a little while. On that note, CSUH.OB, a stock I previously wrote about, is jumping out at me again.

Celsius is a favorite product of mine and it's the leading brand in a new genre, the Calorie Burning Beverage genre. Slowly, but surely they are building a distribution network and according to the CEO of the company, they have new products lined up once they have the distribution network in place. So far this year they have reported three new distribution agreements; with Meijer Supercenters, Walgreens Michigan and Alaska distributors in Washington State. I imagine more Press Releases will follow as the year progresses.

With the market down, I see the stock staying at a nice and attractive low until the sales figures start picking up. I know every Vitamin Shoppe in my area sells out of Celsius pretty quick. I've also tried ordering on line, as I prefer the cans vice the bottles. I think this product is slowly hitting the mainstream, and once it does it has the potential to take off. When revenue starts rolling in and the advertising machine kicks in, the stock could roll. Before that happens, there may be another round of financing causing more dilution, which may be another reason the stock price is sitting so low.

At these prices I'm buying. 1000 shares is a little over a hunney bucks right now, and that risk-reward is a little too good for me too pass up. I'm loading up. I've got a 5 year time frame in mind, but I'll be selling some profits on any spikes.

Hopefully this market stays low for a while. It'll give us the chance to buy low and sell higher! Just the way VFC likes it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=CSUH.OB

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Google (GOOG)

Google is going to take over the world. I am convinced of that fact.

As I've said a few times before, I'm not the sharpest needle in the sewing kit. Sometimes it takes me a while to grasp simple things. A good example is at a poker game a few weeks ago, JP was handing out the chips and I asked him, "Hey, JP, so how much are these 50 dollar chips worth?"

Not buying into Google when it was at $80.00 is one of my blonde moments.

I remember when Google (GOOG) had it's Initial Public Offering (IPO) and the IPO price was 80 bucks. I thought about getting in it at that time, but I didn't have enough money to buy a significant amount. Back then I didn't quite understand that when making an investment, it's not necessarily better to have a large quantity of a stock, it's more important to have a high quality stock. Even if it's only one share at a time, or less. These days your brockerage houses allow you to buy shares in fractions, so you could throw money into Google and buy .0023 shares at a time if you're so inclined. Google is the stock into which you want to throw 20 bucks a paycheck, if that's all you can afford. Sit on it until retirement, and I believe you will see a significant return on that investment.

Back to the point of Google, around the time of their IPO, I thought it was just another internet fad. I lived overseas for most of the real internet boom, so I don't think I quite understood how much time people spent on the internet and how many internet searches took place every second! The world was changing around us, but I didn't notice because I was sitting on the beaches of Europe drinking Tinto con Limons and Gin and Tonics. So I didn't buy ANY of the stock when it was given away at 80 bucks. It wasn't until the stock was trading in the $400 range that I decided to get in, a little bit at a time. Right now the stock is hovering around $600 bucks.

As I stated previously, I like GOOG as something you buy little by little, as you would in a mutual fund, and just let it sit. Google hasn't slowed down yet, and in 2006 they had a 30 BILLION dollar profit. That's not bad.

I like their business, the way they get the little guy involved. They put Google AdSense on the average person's web pages, those little one or two line clickable links next to the main subjects of the page, then they pay the web page's owner a cut of the 'ad-clicking' revenue. This way, Google not only broadens it's presence and it's appeal, but it makes people LOVE Google because they are sending out paychecks! That brings (buys) loyalty to the brand.

I think Google has a great vision of the future, taking their wealth and expanding into markets other than the internet that I discuss here.

I've got Google in my long-term portfolio, I add only a very small fraction of a share at a time, but I want my cut when they take over the world.

In my opinion, Google is more a force now than Microsoft ever was.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=goog

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Capstone Turbine, CPST

Not long ago VFC was looking for something 'green' to add to the portfolio. I had missed the run on some of the ethanol stocks when that was popular, but I'm not too convinced ethanol is the answer for our fuel problems anyway. I think ethanol is over-hyped.

I like looking for stocks flying under the radar, that aren't mainstream yet and have the potential for growth. Since I'm a small time investor, I've got patience. I don't need to turn a quick buck (although I will sometimes) like many of the day traders do. I got tipped off to Capstone Turbine (CPST) through a stock message board and liked it. After some initial, brief research I bought in. Capstone develops, produces and markets low-emission micro-turbine systems and has over 4,000 units operational worldwide.

I usually don't like getting into a stock unless I've done some digging, but I really didn't do too much with Capstone at first; I kinda jumped in blind, which isn't too smart. I didn't even know what a turbine or a micro-turbine was. Since then I've spent some time looking through press releases and the Capstone web site and seeing what the company is all about. Now I'm a bit more informed and I'm liking the growth potential of the company now more than ever. Recently they've signed some new contracts, including a new distributor contract with a Chinese Petroleum company.

Hughes Network Broadband

I initially got into CPST when it traded for a little over a buck, and it closed today at $1.44, so I haven't done too bad. I'll keep buying this one on the dips and wait for the growth to come.

Hopefully my 'green' stock will keep my portfolio green!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=CPST
http://www.microturbine.com/

ShareBuilder- Welcome page

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTP)

Titan Pharmaceuticals is a risky play, as most developmental biotech or pharmaceutical companies are, but this is one of my favorites, as I’ve been in and out of it for years. Titan has five drug candidates in various Phases of clinical trials, the most advanced being Iloperidone, a schizophrenia drug licensed to Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA). The other drugs in trials are Probuphine (Phase III), Spheramine (Phase II), DITPA (Phase II) and Gallium Maltolate (pre-clinical).

The company has a ‘checkered past’ and some shady trading by management in 2001 helped drop the stock from a high of about $60 to it’s current share price of about $1.70. In the last couple of years the stock has traded up and down from the range it’s in now up to about five bucks, providing many opportunities to get in and out.

In March of 2006 I made the dumb mistake of not selling quick enough when it hit $4.99, thinking there just may be really good news coming. I ended up riding it back down to around 2. I reloaded and recovered that one by stocking up on TTP and VNDA and awaited Phase III results for Iloperidone, due out at the end of 2006. I’d read up quite a bit on the long history of Iloperidone, and even though it can be considered as a me-too drug, it had a nice safety profile and I thought the stock price of both companies (TTP and VNDA) would shoot up on positive results, giving me a selling opportunity. Luckily enough that’s what happened.
Since I’m a small investor, I was happy to take the profits and pay off a credit card and invest the leftovers in some other stuff, part of which I speculated in DNDN call options that paid my trip to the Dominican Republic last year. After all them months of having the wife yell at me for being on the computer, she shut-up when she started seeing the results of my DD.

Back to TTP. Probuphine results should be announced later this year along with Spheramine Phase II results in the same time frame. Spheramine is the one I like. It’s a drug to treat Parkinsons and is partnered with Bayer Schering Pharma AG. Updates on this drug usually bump the share price, and the upcoming Phase II results may give the share price a permanent boost.

DITPA and Gallium updates may come this year, but I believe the big three to look at with Titan are the aforementioned three.

I continue to hold a fair amount of TTP in my speculative portfolio. I like the fact that they have numerous drugs in the pipeline, not a one-drug wonder, and the new management looks to be doing a better job at getting information out. At the current price I think the risk-reward is favorable, especially if you sell on the spikes.

VFC still likes TTP.

Satellite Radio; Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR)

SIRIUS!

I couldn’t use up the space necessary, or the time necessary to discuss the ins and outs of the SIRI stock vs the XM stock. Right now, with a possible merger between the two companies supposedly very soon, I think both stocks are good buys. Both have dropped around 30% since Nov 30th as investors are waiting on news of the merger, which was supposed to happen by the end of 2007. Both the Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission need to give the green light, and as is standard for government decisions, things happen pretty slow. It takes government employees an hour and a half to watch 60 minutes last I heard.

The big issue behind the merger is whether the two companies are forming a monopoly by merging. Since there are only two satellite radio licenses, the two companies merging would form a monopoly. However, I think it’s pretty obvious that satellite radio competes with various other entertainment sources and music technology. Start with the iPod, iPhone, MP3 players, cellphones, and the list goes on. Sirius’ CEO Mel Karmazin has promised the FCC to allow a la carte programming for a cheaper price if the merger goes through. This way customers can pick and choose what they want to listen to. Chairman Martin of the FCC has tried to get the cable companies to allow a la carte programming, but to no avail, so he may see the Satrad merger as a precedent for a la carte options.

After years in Spain living a lifestyle where you can walk just about anywhere you needed to go in town, no one ever really spent enough time in their vehicles to worry too much about radio service. Coming back to the states, however, I see us Americans spend half our lives sitting in traffic jams, or driving somewhere because it’s too difficult for us to build a supermarket, restaurant, a bar or ANYTHING social within walking distance of a house, so we need sources of entertainment in the vehicles. The terrestrial radio did not cut it for me. Too many commercials. I had already bought stock in Sirius while I was overseas so I figured I’d give the product a try and now I couldn’t live without it. No commercials on music channels, EVERY football game with home team AND away team broadcasting, the Playboy channel (not that I would listen to that stuff, aside from Afternoon Advice with Tiffany Granath, the Playmate hour, etc.) and the Disney channel for the kids. XM has very similar programming, minus Howard Stern and Playboy, and I’m hoping this merger goes through before Baseball season so I can get all the Mets games XM carries as well. I also bought a SIRIUS Stiletto for the wife. The Stiletto is the hand held, iPod-like Sirius receiver and I was impressed. Much better reception than I thought and I like the recording feature.

All in all, I like buying stock in companies that make quality products or offer quality service. I believe SIRIUS does both. I’ve got some long shares, but I’m also playing it as a quick trade on the spike in case the merger does go through, so I stocked up on some call options. Whether the merger goes through or not, I believe Sirius has a better shot at sustainment than XM.

Sirius will give you 4.6 shares of SIRI for every share of XM after the merger.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Dendreon (DNDN) Receives Patent for Provenge

As an update to the previous post about Dendreon and it's Cancer drug Provenge, Dendreon just received a European patent for Provenge. Dendreon continues to achieve regulatory approval in the United States first, this news of a European patent opens the door to apply for approval in Europe, which I think greatly increases the value of this stock.

In my opinion, the European Community may be more receptive to new treatments, not stuck in the stone age like the FDA in America.

The FDA recently issued a third approvable letter to Encysive's (ENCY) Thelin, which already has marketing approval in Europe.

Dendreon is still one I like for the risk-reward.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Celsius, The Calorie Burning Beverage CSUH.OB

Here's a product that I got tipped off to from our friend Karlton, the epitome of fitness. Karlton got into investing recently and went straight to what he knew, fitness related stocks.

Celsius (CSUH.OB) is the first of it's kind; the new negative calorie beverages. Nestea (a Coca-Cola brand) has a competing drink called Enviga. With Celsius, I found the stock before I tried the drink. It was so cheap, in the .50 cent range when I bought my first batch of the stock, that I figured the risk-reward was worth it; as I know how Americans love their fads. I figured the way this country loves any method of losing weight, except exercise and staying away from TGI Friday's, that there was definite growth potential here.

The stock dropped as low as about .12 cents recently, and I've stocked up pretty good (good for me, remember I'm a small time investor, so quite a bit of stock to me is chump change to most).

I ended up buying the stock before I tried the beverage, just for the risk-reward potential.

I actually tried Enviga first, since they sold it right around the corner. Enviga was OK, they sold two flavors, Berry and Green Tea, but I wasn't impressed and I actually felt a little sick after trying it. It was a little better mixed with vodka, but still nothing to write home about.
On a weekend trip to DC with the wife, I bought a bottle of Celsius Ginger-Ale flavor from the local Vitamin Shoppe. It was quite tasty and gave me a nice energy boost that almost had me doing backflips down Connecticut Avenue. The energy boost lasted a couple of hours and I never got the downer that you get after most energy drinks. I was sold, so I tried all the flavors they had, Orange, Cola, Lemon-Lime, Ginger-Ale and I believe Wild Berry. Way better than Enviga, so I felt comfortable I made a good investment. Even though Enviga has the product placement, when people try Celsius, the product will sell itself. After about two weeks of mixing Celsius with excercise I had dropped 5 pounds. (I quickly gained them back and thensome when the holidays hit, missed a few workouts and ran out of Celsius).

Celsius has clinical studies behind it and burns more calories over a three hour period than Enviga.

Celsius is slowly building a distribution network and I believe the growth potential is there with the product, and with the stock. On the Celsius website,
http://www.celsius.com/
you can read up on the science and watch some videos with the CEO of the company, who gave me the impression this guys knows what he's doing.

Nothing is a sure bet, and some may say this is a 'pump and dump' stock, but the risk-reward here is too good for me to pass up.

Celsius is not listed on a major stock exchange and is traded on the bulletin boards, hence the ticker CSUH.OB.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=CSUH.OB

Dendreon (DNDN) and the Provenge Story

Dendreon (DNDN) is a biotech company that is one of quite a few biotechs that are developing vaccines, or immunotherapies to treat various types of cancer. Provenge is Dendreon's immunotherapy treatment for prostate cancer.

A while back, I didn't know too much about the company, or Provenge, but I had read enough about it that I decided to buy about a dozen or so call options with a strike price of $10.00. I laughed all the way to the Dominican Republic on that investment when the stock hit a high of around $25.00 and I was selling those options on the way up.
At the time I bought the calls, I knew that in 6-8 months out the FDA would render a decision on whether or not to approve Provenge, and before that an FDA advisory panel would recommend approval or non approval.
The Phase III study behind Provenge failed to meet it's primary efficacy endpoint, although it did demonstrate efficacy. However, from the study, evidence did show that Provenge extended the lives of the patients.
In spite of the narrowly missed endpoint, and the evidence of extending lives, the FDA advisory panel voted to recommend Provenge with a vote of 17-0 that Provenge was safe and 13-4 that it demonstrated efficacy.
That's when the stock took off. Smart ones sold shortly after the take-off, and a whole lotta people that were short the stock got screwed.
Not long after, two doctors, who were on the advisory panel, openly questioned the vote and the decision of the advisory committee to recommend approval. Later it was discovered that both of these doctors had conflicts of interest going into the panel (each had investment interests in companies in competition with Provenge).
On May 8th, 2007 the FDA issued an approvable letter for Provenge, stating they needed more evidence that Provenge did, in fact, extend life.
This caused a public outcry by cancer patients who put hope on this alternative to Taxatore, the only other recognized treatment for advanced Prostate Cancer.
The stock plummeted as the FDA said they will wait for interim results of a second Phase III trial, due in late 2008.
Recently, three members of Congress requested and official inquiry into the details surrounding the advisory panel and the conflicts of interest of the two Doctors. Who knows where this will go.
In the meantime this story brings up many ethical questions about our society. Is money competing against new drug approvals? Does the fact that so many big investment firms were short the stock affect the decisions made by the FDA? Is our mindset so old-school that we cannot accept an 'immunotherapy' that we don't really understand why it works, but it shows it does?
Who knows the answers, but I'm keeping some money in this one, if it finally does get approval it'll blast off again. But even more important, Provenge will help those that need it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=DNDN
http://www.dendreon.com/
http://www.provengenow.org/

Sunday, January 13, 2008

VFC's StockHouse

VFC's Stock House is the place to share tips, picks and stock investing ideas. This site is geared towards the small investor looking for good future returns.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

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